2015 Fantasy Football Outlook for Houston Texans Stars
The outlook for the Houston Texans fantasy football stars still rides on Arian Foster’s shoulders in 2015. DeAndre Hopkins plays a bigger role with Andre Johnson moving on, and free agent Cecil Shorts III could rekindle his career, but Foster needs to stay healthy to take pressure off underwhelming signal-callers.
General manager Rick Smith hired head coach Bill O’Brien to pluck the Texans from the rubble the way O’Brien righted a much larger disaster at Penn State just two seasons prior.
The offense responded, finishing 14th in points—20th when adjusted for standard fantasy scoring—after a dismal 31st-place finish in the collapse of the Gary Kubiak regime.
Opinions about O’Brien’s initial efforts in Houston hedged on glowing, according to an NFL combine exit poll taken by Deepi Sidhu of HoustonTexans.com.
There is plenty of room for new names to rise in the fantasy ranks now that so many of Houston’s old standards pulled out of town.
Honorable Mention
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Tom Savage, QB
Savage locked up the third quarterback spot after Houston traded Case Keenum to St. Louis.
The 2014 fourth-rounder out of Pittsburgh is nothing more than a dynasty prospect heading into his second season.
DeVier Posey, WR
Posey logged just one start in 2014 and appears headed for the waiver wire if fortunes aren’t reversed in training camp.
Keshawn Martin, WR
Martin failed to attract much playing time after Houston made a late-preseason move to pick up Damaris Johnson from Philadelphia.
The 2012 fourth-rounder is entering the last year of his rookie contract with zero fantasy relevance in tow.
Ryan Griffin, TE
Griffin logged the third-most snaps among Texans tight ends in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus.
Although he produced more than C.J. Fiedorowicz, he currently sits behind him on Rotoworld's Texans depth chart.
C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE
Houston drafted Fiedorowicz out of Iowa to open 2014’s third round, hoping Bill O’Brien could mold the 6’5”, 265-pounder into a poor man’s Rob Gronkowski.
That didn’t happen.
Garrett Graham didn’t perform well enough to hold Fiedorowicz out of the TE1-position if he can win it in camp. Until then, he’s nothing more than a deep-dynasty stash.
J.J. Watt, DE
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What?
Fine, Watt isn’t even an option in most standard online fantasy leagues unless it allows for individual defensive players.
But, if you’re in a custom league with an open-minded commish, perhaps you could slot the All-Pro defensive end at tight end and gamble he’ll match his three-touchdown performance from 2015.
Three touchdowns is nothing to scoff at in a passing offense that struggled so hard—ranked 24th—even punter Shane Lechler got a chance to show the quarterback carousel how it’s done. (His career passer rating is 132.5, by the way.)
Watt matched Andre Johnson in receiving touchdowns as well as the tight-end trio of Garrett Graham (1), Ryan Griffin (1) and C.J. Fiedorowicz (1).
Watt’s season-long tally of 18 fantasy points would have tied him at 53rd among tight ends in 2014. His value is strictly as a one-week, side-bet killer.
Seriously, imagine the stakes and potential bragging rights if you stick Watt in your lineup just once and he actually scores? It’s got to be worth at least a free round and all the chest-thumping your little ego desires.
Just don’t go to that well twice. Hit the walk-off and promenade with your fists to the sky.
Damaris Johnson, WR
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The Texans re-signed Johnson to a minor one-year deal, according to NFL.com’s Adam Caplan on Twitter.
"#Texans slot WR Damaris Johnson agreed to a 1-year deal to re-sign for $1 M, per league source.
— Adam Caplan (@caplannfl) March 9, 2015
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Johnson is currently considered the third wide receiver on Houston’s depth chart. Cecil Shorts III should be a lock over Johnson for the slot position if he stays healthy, limiting Johnson to reserve and special teams roles in 2015.
If Houston brings in another wide receiver, Johnson’s fantasy prospects in 2015 dip from scarce to none.
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Garrett Graham, TE
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Graham regressed in 2014 after stepping out of Owen Daniels’ shadow just a season prior. The sixth-year veteran out of Wisconsin struggled to stay on the field, missing five games and seven starts due to injuries.
Graham finished 2014 with 23 fantasy points, only five more than J.J. Watt.
He might get one more shot at No. 1 tight end duties for Houston, but he doesn’t even merit TE2 on your fantasy roster in 2015.
Jonathan Grimes, RB
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Grimes—a shifty, change-of-pace back at 5’10”, 209—earned a slightly larger role in 2014 whenever Arian Foster sat sidelined with injuries. His 14.3 yards per reception led all Texans running backs in 2014.
His receiving ability is closer to Foster’s than Alfred Blue’s, positioning Grimes with an opportunity to take the RB2 spot from Blue in training camp.
If Grimes climbs the depth chart, he’s worth a handcuff for Foster owners. Otherwise, he holds no fantasy interest in 2015.
Alfred Blue, RB
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Blue showed flashes of why Houston tapped the rookie to replace the departed Ben Tate behind Arian Foster. The sixth-rounder out of LSU exploded in a Week 11 start against the Browns, racking up 156 yards on 36 carries.
But 3.1 yards per attempt leaves a lot to be desired from a 6’2”, 223-pound frame. Bill O’Brien indicated Houston is looking for alternatives in the draft, according to Drew Dougherty of HoustonTexans.com.
"When you look at our needs in the draft, I would say running back is a position that we could look at. I’m not going to tell you exactly what type of running back we’re looking for, but that’s something that we could probably add to our team in some shape or form that would help our team if the right guy's out there.
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Blue remains the obvious handcuff for Arian Foster owners, but keep an eye on Houston’s offseason moves before adding him to your bench come September.
Ryan Mallett, QB
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Bill O’Brien said re-signing Mallett was a top offseason goal for the Texans, according to John McClain of the Houston Chronicle:
"If you look at our offense, we’d like to bolster the quarterback position, and one way to do that is by bringing back Ryan. We’d like to have him back in Houston.
He’s smart, and he’s a hard worker, and he understands our system. I like the fact that when he wasn’t playing he was really into the game. He listened to every play call on an earpiece.
There are a lot of things that make me believe he can be a starter in this league.
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Houston achieved that goal on the eve of the opening day for signing NFL free agents, according to Fox Sports.com’s Mike Garafolo via Twitter:
"QB Ryan Mallett back to Houston. Deal being finalized.
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) March 9, 2015
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Mallett started just two games for the Texans in 2014, logging a pedestrian 67.6 passer rating before missing the rest of the season with a pectoral tear.
Houston brought in Brian Hoyer to compete for the QB1 spot. The pair backed up Tom Brady in New England when O’Brien was the Patriots offensive coordinator. Mallett won the backup position over Hoyer more for contractual reasons than performance given the struggles of his second preseason.
Mallett will need to shine in training camp to win the starting job over the more polished Hoyer. But even if he does, Mallett’s fantasy value is limited to QB2 at best in 2015.
Brian Hoyer, QB
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Houston and Hoyer agreed to terms on March 9, according to Dianna Marie Russini of NBC4 Washington via Twitter:
"QB Brian Hoyer is going to be a Houston Texan per sources.
— Dianna Marie Russini (@NBCdianna) March 9, 2015
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Houston traded Ryan Fitzpatrick to the Jets as a result, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Twitter.
"Texans are trading QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to the New York Jets for a late-round conditional draft pick, per a league source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 11, 2015
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Hoyer’s acquisition came the same day the Texans re-signed Ryan Mallett, kicking off a quarterback controversy that should run right up until kickoff in early September.
If experience is a good indicator, Hoyer’s got it all over Mallett with 17 career-starts and a 76.7 passer-rating to just two and 61.0. Plus, the six-year veteran already endured a sensational quarterback controversy with Cleveland in 2014, successfully keeping Johnny Manziel at bay for most of the season.
The new contracts for both might also tip Houston’s hand as the competition gets underway, according to Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio:
"The contracts given to quarterbacks Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett suggest that Hoyer has the early lead in the competition to determine the starting quarterback.
Per a source with knowledge of the contracts, Hoyer signed a two-year, $10.5 million deal with $4.75 million fully guaranteed.
Mallett’s two-year deal is worth $7 million over two years, with only $1.75 million guaranteed.
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If Hoyer wins the job, that doesn’t mean he gains any fantasy relevance. He finished 25th in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks in 2014 managing a similar offense loaded with rushing talent.
He’ll be nothing more than a favorable-matchup plugger in 2015.
Cecil Shorts III, WR
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Shorts will never erase memories of Andre Johnson, but Rick Smith and the Texans had to fill the Hall of Fame void with somebody.
The 6’0”, 202-pound slot receiver signed a modest two-year deal, according to the Houston Chronicle’s John McLain on Twitter:
"Texans have agreed on a contract with WR Cecil Shorts 3.
— John McClain (@McClain_on_NFL) March 16, 2015
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Jacksonville left the veteran unsigned heading into his fifth season partly because of injury concerns. Nagging injuries drew down his performance from a peak of 17.8 yards per reception in 2012 to just 10.5 last season.
The Texans aren’t through shopping for wide receivers in free agency or the draft, according to McClain.
"Agreeing to terms with veteran Cecil Shorts III on a two-year contract for $6 million ($2.5 million guaranteed) doesn’t mean the Texans are finished looking for wide receivers to replace Andre Johnson.
Expect them to draft a receiver in the first or second round. They might add another veteran free agent, and they may draft two at that position.
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Thus, Shorts is nothing more than a flex option with limited upside heading into 2015.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR
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Hopkins impressed in 2014, catching 76 passes for a team-leading 1,210 yards and six touchdowns. His sophomore explosion followed a promising rookie campaign despite running routes for a revolving cast of mediocre-at-best quarterbacks—Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Schaub, Case Keenum, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates and Tom Savage.
NFL.com’s Elliot Harrison noticed, pairing Hopkins with Odell Beckham Jr. on his “All-under-25 team.”
"This was difficult. Ultimately went with Hopkins over Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin. He was more consistent than the former and didn't drop as many balls as the latter; plus, with an extra year under his belt, Hopkins is further along than both of those two (as well as Sammy Watkins).
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Hopkins graded 10th among wide receivers in pass-catching per Pro Football Focus. His career-trajectory is very similar to former-teammate Andre Johnson’s after two seasons, according to Drew Dougherty of Houston Texans.com.
It will be interesting to see how Hopkins fares without Johnson drawing attention away from him in the passing game. He’ll need consistency from whoever wins the starting quarterback gig and a little help from newly acquired Cecil Shorts III on the other side.
Houston’s continued reliance on the running game should keep defenses grounded as well, opening up play-action coverage lapses for the 6’1” burner.
Hopkins deserves a top-10 rank among wide receivers in 2015 fantasy drafts.
Arian Foster, RB
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Bill O’Brien said Houston’s top goal is keeping Foster healthy in 2015, according to John McClain of the Houston Chronicle:
"I think any time a player reaches close to that age of 30 and you know that the guy can still play, you know that he’s a very talented player. Arian’s a very talented guy in a lot of phases.
He can run the ball. He can catch. He’s a good pass protector. He’s a smart player, but you’ve got to manage him. How do you manage that? You manage him in practice. You manage him in the games. That’s something we’ll always take into account.
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The focal point of the Texans offense turns 29 in August. He’s touched the ball an average of 329 times per season since his All-Pro breakout in 2010.
The wear that workload caused is evidenced by 11 missed games over the past two seasons due to injuries.
Foster is still running at a high level, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and grading ninth among running backs, per Pro Football Focus. Houston’s offensive line graded fifth in run-blocking last season. The unit is projected to get stronger by taking Miami offensive tackle Ereck Flowers at pick No. 16, according to a tally of 11 expert mock-drafters surveyed by Business Insider.
Trust Foster to maintain a top-10 pace among running backs for at least one more season.
NFL statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference , fantasy stats courtesy of ESPN.com, contract and salary cap information provided by Over the Cap and h/t to Rotoworld for tweets and quotes unless otherwise noted.
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