Potential 2016 NBA Free Agents Who Could Make a Killing with Projected Cap Spike
The summers of 2010 and 2014 were legendary by NBA free agency standards, but 2016 is primed to be the most hectic signing period we've ever seen.
And it's not just because LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love and Dwight Howard may all be hitting the open market.
It's because if they do, unprecedented paydays will await them.
According to ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst, the players' union rejected a salary-smoothing proposal that would have seen teams' cap numbers gradually rise over the next couple seasons. As a result, a monster spike looms in 2016, per Windhorst:
"The NBA announced Wednesday that the players' union formally rejected a so-called "cap-smoothing" proposal the league put forth to manage the influx of revenue that is coming with the $24 billion television deal with TNT and ESPN that begins after next season.
NBA teams using internal data are projecting the salary cap to jump to between $88 million and $92 million per team, sources told ESPN. To compare, this season the cap is set at $63 million and next season it is projected to land at about $66 million. To put it into perspective, the largest salary-cap jump in history is $7 million in one season. What happens in 2016 could triple that leap.
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With an inevitable surplus of cash awaiting teams across the Association and a potentially star-studded class of free agents free to field offers, chaos is bound to ensue.
To be crystal clear, the following examination considers a wide range of names. Several of those are slated to be unrestricted free agents in 2016, but others have options that can be exercised this year as a way to ensure participation. And in some cases, player options that can be declined for the 2016-17 season received consideration.
At the end of the day, there's no shortage of avenues leading to a summer that will be lined with Benjamins.
Outliers
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The summer of 2016 will be a time of tremendous financial prosperity for some of the league's biggest stars, but it would be foolish to think that a cap increase will result in every player maximizing his earning potential.
For instance, Dwyane Wade will be able to exercise a $16.1 million player option this summer that would eventually make him an unrestricted free agent in 2016. If he does make that prudent decision, it's hard to see a then-35-year-old eating up a significant portion of Miami's cap—particularly after he's displayed a willingness to sign team-friendly deals. He could—and should—be compensated generously, but he won't be the max prize he once was.
Roy Hibbert, Brook Lopez and Monta Ellis are in the same boat as Wade. All three can opt into the final year of their deals this summer, with annual salaries ranging from $15.5 million (Hibbert) to $8.7 million (Ellis). And while earnings may increase to reflect the rising nature of the cap, the percentage of teams' books that they hamstring may be smaller by comparison.
Chandler Parsons is another interesting case, but he would be certifiably insane to decline the $16 million he's slated to earn during the 2016-17 season after Dallas splurged on the swingman last summer.
Hassan Whiteside is a fascinating name to consider, but given his potentially tumultuous temper, it's too early to tell if he'll be one of 2016's bigger beneficiaries.
Nicolas Batum, SF, Portland Trail Blazers
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Path to Free Agency: Unrestricted in 2016
Nicolas Batum will have eight seasons under his belt when he hits the open market in 2016, and he'll still be only 27 years old.
Although the Frenchman isn't generally considered a superstar, he's the sort of valuable third option that championship-caliber teams crave to do the dirty work.
A supplementary scorer who's shooting 36.1 percent from three for his career, Batum can provide ancillary punch from the perimeter. He's also not afraid of going toe-to-toe with some of the NBA's most lethal scorers.
According to NBASavant.com, Batum has held Chandler Parsons, James Harden and Carmelo Anthony below 42 percent shooting from the field when he's been the closest defender.
Max money may not await Portland's swingman, but if the four-year, $46 million offer sheet the Minnesota Timberwolves gave him in 2012 is any indication, teams won't be bashful when chasing his services.
Mike Conley, PG, Memphis Grizzlies
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Path to Free Agency: Unrestricted in 2016
Point guard may be the NBA's most saturated position, but few floor generals are wired like Mike Conley.
A selfless presence with a penchant for precise pick-and-roll execution, Conley's multi-dimensional offerings should have teams salivating over a potential departure from the Memphis Grizzlies.
Just now entering his prime at 27 years old, Conley is one of five players averaging at least 16 points and five assists while hitting more than 38 percent of his threes. According to Basketball-Reference, the other four are Stephen Curry, Blake Griffin, Kyrie Irving and Brandon Knight.
As an offensive initiator, Conley has been exceptional. Working in tandem with Marc Gasol in high pick-and-roll configurations, the former Ohio State Buckeye has churned out nearly 0.9 points per possession, according to Synergy Sports.
Conley's been more efficient than Irving, John Wall and Russell Westbrook on such plays and resides in the 80th percentile when flipping the rock to rolling bigs and open wing shooters.
With a silky outside shot and a pesky demeanor on defense, Conley's committed two-way approach should have teams salivating at his impending status as an unrestricted free agent.
DeMar DeRozan, SG, Toronto Raptors
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Path to Free Agency: Player option for 2016-17
DeMar DeRozan's path to another payday is slightly more complicated than Mike Conley's or Nicolas Batum's, but it could wind up being a prosperous endeavor.
After signing a four-year, $40 million extension with the Toronto Raptors at the start of the 2012-13 season, DeRozan wields a $10.1 million player option for 2016-17. That's hardly chump change, but under the tenets of an exploding cap, it may soon look that way to a scorer of his caliber.
Injuries have thrown DeRozan's 2014-15 season for a loop and sent his shooting splits plummeting, but an All-Star berth last season highlighted just how dominant he can be with the ball in his hands.
It will take another explosive campaign to send DeRozan's stock soaring again, but with one more year to prove his worth on what's evolved into a fairly team-friendly deal, he could find 2016 advantageous to the long-term well-being of his bank account.
Kevin Durant, SF, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Path to Free Agency: Unrestricted in 2016
Kevin Durant is the prized jewel of 2016, and there should be no debate to the contrary.
Rampant speculation has consumed Durant's potential destinations, with the Washington Wizards emerging as the trendy consensus favorite to land him should the reigning MVP spurn the Oklahoma City Thunder.
But as NBA reporter David Aldridge explained, Oklahoma City's pitch is rather robust compared to Washington's:
"Washington is prepared to make a pitch. The Wizards have an outstanding young backcourt in All-Star John Wall and Bradley Beal, and a solid big man in Marcin Gortat, all under contract for 2016, as well as Kris Humphries and Otto Porter Jr. They will shed roughly $18 million in cap space in 2016 when Nene and Paul Pierce come off the books, and could find another $7.8 million by not picking up their options on Martell Webster and DeJuan Blair.
But Oklahoma City shouldn't be quaking in its boots just yet. The Thunder have any number of factors on its side of the ledger: familiarity, loyalty, Russell Westbrook, Durant's restaurant (KD's, and it's pretty good eating) -- which is just a few clicks from both Chesapeake Energy Arena and his new house -- and Sam Presti's brain, not necessarily in that order.
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For the time being, Durant is refusing to publicly tip his hand, as evidenced by comments made in late January, according to Aldridge:
"I love playing for Oklahoma City, man. There's just a certain level of pride that I have when I play with that Oklahoma City on my chest. That's the only thing I focus on. Everybody knows I represent where I come from, no matter where I play at, no matter what arena. But I just focus on playing with Oklahoma City. It feels like home to me now. So that's where I am.
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Regardless of where he goes, Durant should earn the new max. And according to ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst, that could mean annual earnings approaching $30 million.
He's worth every penny—and then some.
Al Horford, C, Atlanta Hawks
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Path to Free Agency: Unrestricted in 2016
Cue up the Jeopardy! music, because it's trivia time!
This season, two players are averaging at least 15 points, seven rebounds and three assists while shooting better than 50 percent from the field, according to Basketball-Reference.
Can you name them?
Because I trust you guys and assume cheating was kept to a minimum, here are the answers:
- Blake Griffin
- Al Horford
So that's terrifying.
"When he’s healthy, Horford is a legitimate NBA superstar—a chameleon who is good at everything, great at some things, and always flying beneath the radar," Grantland's Zach Lowe wrote.
For a supposed superstar, Horford is drastically underpaid. Consider he's earning the same $12 million as Kevin Garnett and $2.8 million less than the limited Tyson Chandler, and Horford is due for a big-time bump in pay.
A three-time All-Star with certified credentials as a post-up maven, face-up shooter and distributive savant, Horford deserves max-contract consideration as a versatile big in the mold of Marc Gasol.
Dwight Howard, C, Houston Rockets
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Path to Free Agency: Early-termination option in 2016
Dwight Howard's four-year, $88 million deal with the Houston Rockets technically runs through the conclusion of the 2016-17 season, but there's a catch: He can exercise an early-termination option prior to the final year, opt out of a guaranteed $23.3 million and campaign for more long-term security.
Of course, that's a gargantuan sum of money to turn down, particularly for a player who has battled significant knee and back injuries. But if Howard can use the salary-cap spike as leverage to earn a shiny five-year extension that only the Rockets can offer, he'd be wise to do so.
Opting out would also allow Howard to field offers from competing franchises—although they'd only be able to offer four-year max deals like the one he signed with Houston in 2013.
And while Howard expressed a bit of disappointment that he was never able to link up with the Brooklyn Nets, according to the New York Post's Tim Bontemps, he reiterated that he's happy in Houston.
“I think when I opted in, it kind of changed everything,” Howard said, per Bontemps. “But like I said, Houston is a great place. I love where I’m at. I found a great organization here. Even though I won’t be playing here in Brooklyn, I have a lot of family and friends here, so it’s a lot of fun to visit with those people.”
Opting out may seem illogical at the moment, but it could represent the savvy long-term move as the summer of 2016 approaches.
LeBron James, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Path to Free Agency: Decline 2015-16 player option and ink another one-year deal
Let's not make this more complicated than it needs to be.
LeBron James can enter free agency this summer if he declines a 2015-16 player option valued at $21.6 million, and according to Northeast Ohio Media Group's Joe Vardon, he's likely to do just that:
"But if James were to seek a new deal with the Cavs this summer, he'd make about $23 million next season -- maybe a touch more. That would be roughly a $1.5 million increase over what he would make if he simply exercised the option on his current contract.
The money -- as in, the extra $1.5 million -- isn't really the issue for James. Shorter deals with player options give him greater leverage with the Cavs and, perhaps as or more importantly, would put him in a position to maximize his worth in 2016-17 when the NBA's new TV deal is expected to explode the salary cap.
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So in essence, James can have the best of both worlds. He can earn a modest raise (by NBA standards) next season and then max things out in the summer of 2016.
If and when he does opt out, don't expect some sort of laborious decision-making process on the King's end, as Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes explained:
"As if LeBron James even has a choice.
Every team in the league would happily max out James this summer if given the chance, but LBJ's grand return to Cleveland was, according to him, about so much more than basketball. He raised the stakes of this thing.
He can't leave now.
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It's fun to fantasize about a world in which LeBron flips the league landscape on its side once again, but he's been vocal about retiring with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
"I don’t plan on going anywhere," James said back at a welcome-home event in August, according to the Akron Beacon-Journal's Jason Lloyd. "I don’t have the energy to do it again."
Case closed.
Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Path to Free Agency: Exercise player option in 2015
Kevin Love can make financial waves if he declines a $16.7 million player option for next season, but that would be a shortsighted play—and he knows it.
"I think that we will figure it out here, so I don't plan on opting out or any of that," Love said, according to Northeast Ohio Media Group's Chris Haynes. "I plan on being here. As far as leaving my options open, I mean sure, it's always there. At the end of the day, it's always good to have something but no, I plan on being here."
However, as NBC Sports' Dan Feldman opined, "if Love truly plans to opt into the final year of his contract, he’s being foolish. Love has a $16,744,219 player option for next season. His max salary next season projects to be $19,027,800."
Feldman has a point, but patience would conceivably net Love a heftier average annual salary. And now that Cleveland is holding down the East's No. 2 seed with the league's top-rated offense since the All-Star break, Love appears to be settling into a groove—shooting 44 percent from three since Feb. 1.
All statistics current as of March 11 and courtesy of NBA.com unless noted otherwise. All salary information retrieved from BasketballInsiders.com.
