2015 NBA Playoff Odds: Latest Team Predictions for the Season's Final Month
We have entered the sprint portion of the 2014-15 NBA 82-game marathon.
Playoff spots will be won and lost over the next five weeks, and we're here with crystal ball in hand to see how likely each team is to claim one.
Past performance plays a huge part in setting these postseason odds. Nothing shows what a team is capable of better than what they have already done, particularly what a club has accomplished lately. Playoff forecasts are more concerned with post-All-Star break streaks and slumps than they are the forgotten rises and falls that occurred during the dog days of winter.
But the future plays a role here, too. If teams are primed to get a key contributor back from injury or set to face a Charmin-soft schedule down the stretch, we'll reflect that in our odds.
And, as with any educated guesswork, we'll lean on the trusty eye test to help fill in the remaining blanks.
Will your team likely snag a playoff spot over the coming weeks? Or is it OK to book that late-April excursion now? Read on, and you'll find those answers, along with each team's championship odds courtesy of OddsShark.com in parentheses following our playoff odds.
Out of the Race
1 of 21
Some playoff dreams are on life support. These don't fall into that category.
The plug has already officially been pulled on the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves. Both have been mathematically ruled out of the race, thanks in no small part to the 31 victories and 95 losses between them.
That adds up to a combined .246 winning percentage. Or, for the glass-half-full crowd, that's an impressive .754 losing percentage.
Either number represents the reality that these ships aren't sinking—they've already crash-landed on the ocean floor.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds)
- Los Angeles Lakers: 0-1 (N/A)
- Minnesota Timberwolves: 0-1 (N/A)
Dwindling Hopes
2 of 21
Almost only counts in bad cliches, but the teams on this slide are as close to eliminated as they can get without being officially eliminated.
That's probably not bad news if you're a fan of the 2015 NBA draft class. The sooner a playoff bubble bursts, the more lottery pingpong balls a talent-deprived team can collect the rest of the way. That's especially pertinent information for the Sacramento Kings, who could lose their first-round pick to the Chicago Bulls if it falls outside of the top 10.
With the NBA's sixth-worst winning percentage, Sacramento has a better chance of keeping the selection than these six teams have of making a surprise playoff push. Each sits at least eight games back of the No. 8 seed in their respective conferences.
They have neither the time, nor the talent to make up that deficit over the remainder of the season.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds)
- Denver Nuggets: 500-1 (N/A)
- New York Knicks: 1,000-1 (N/A)
- Orlando Magic: 250-1 (N/A)
- Philadelphia 76ers: 750-1 (N/A)
- Sacramento Kings: 500-1 (N/A)
- Utah Jazz: 100-1 (N/A)
The Locks
3 of 21
Only one team has officially punched its playoff ticket so far.
The Atlanta Hawks needed just 63 games to lock up their first 50-win season since 2009-10. They clinched their playoff berth back on March 3, making them the fastest team to do so since Michael Jordan's Chicago Bulls grabbed theirs on March, 2, 1996, per Hawks.com's Jaryd Wilson and KL Chouinard.
While Atlanta is the only club guaranteed to be in the dance, several others are already polishing their dancing shoes.
The Golden State Warriors have the NBA's highest winning percentage and best net efficiency rating. They could lose their final 19 games—mind you, they haven't lost more than two in a row all season—and they'd still be tied for the third-most wins in franchise history. The Western Conference is crowded, but not deep enough to pull the rug out from underneath this front-runner.
The Memphis Grizzlies and Cleveland Cavaliers also have to love their chances. Memphis has more wins (45) than any team outside of Atlanta and Golden State. Cleveland has the second-best net efficiency rating since Jan. 9 (plus-8.4 points per 100 possessions), the date that rim-protecting center Timofey Mozgov made his Cavaliers debut.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds)
- Atlanta Hawks: 1-0 (6-1)
- Cleveland Cavaliers: 1-250 (2-1)
- Golden State Warriors: 1-250 (7-2)
- Memphis Grizzlies: 1-100 (9-1)
Boston Celtics
4 of 21
Record: 27-36
Efficiency Statistics (Rankings): 101.2 Offensive Rating (20th), 103.1 Defensive Rating (T-15th), Minus-1.9 Net Rating (20th)
The Boston Celtics are building something intriguing. They are sitting on a mountain of future picks, and they have assembled a small army of exciting young prospects.
Trade-deadline acquisition Isaiah Thomas has fit like a glove, pumping in 21.4 points and 5.4 assists in only 27.6 minutes per game since his Beantown debut. Between Thomas, Avery Bradley and 2014 lottery pick Marcus Smart, the Celtics could have their backcourt set for the better part of the next decade.
But the immediate present isn't nearly as bright. The Celtics are a respectable 7-5 since the All-Star break, but hovering around .500 won't help them close the 1.5-game gap separating them from the East's final playoff spot.
By virtue of their conference affiliation, the Celtics have at least a puncher's chance of sneaking into the field. The potential for any of their prospects to suddenly emerge improves those odds a bit.
But their chances of striking a knockout blow were severely weakened by the loss of starting power forward Jared Sullinger, who's done for the season with a stress fracture in his left foot.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 4-1 (500-1)
Brooklyn Nets
5 of 21
Record: 25-38
Efficiency Statistics (Rankings): 100.4 Offensive Rating (24th), 104.7 Defensive Rating (T-23rd), Minus-4.3 Net Rating (24th)
The Brooklyn Nets have been swimming in shark-infested waters all season.
They dangled their pricey Big Three as bait, but never got the right fish to bite. They have had rare moments of relief sprinkled between maddening bouts of inconsistency. This team hasn't won more than three games in a row all season, and it's had four losing streaks extend at least four games.
The Nets don't have a lot of offensive firepower, and their defense has bent to the point of breaking multiple times. Their leading scorer, Brook Lopez, is a 7-footer with rebounding problems. Their starting point guard, Deron Williams, is shooting a career-worst 38 percent from the field.
There just isn't a lot to like here, unless Brooklyn gets a boost from its experience. That can be big at this time of year, but it must be massive to help the Nets salvage this forgettable, frustrating season.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 12-1 (500-1)
Charlotte Hornets
6 of 21
Record: 28-35
Efficiency Statistics (Rankings): 98.3 Offensive Rating (28th), 100.4 Defensive Rating (10th), Minus-2.1 Net Rating (21st)
Mo Williams was supposed to be a stopgap solution for the Charlotte Hornets. The 32-year-old journeyman has been a surprise savior instead.
Acquired to hold things over for the injured Kemba Walker, Williams wasted little time making his presence felt. He scored 24 points in his first game with the Hornets and has gone for at least 20 in seven of his 10 outings since. Charlotte, which has struggled for offense all season, has been 15.7 points per 100 possessions better on that end with Williams since his arrival.
With Walker back, the Hornets could have a potent backcourt combo to pull some heat away from low-post scorer Al Jefferson.
"I’m glad we’ve got him because I feel like there are some things I can learn from him," Walker said of Williams, per Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer. "I can’t wait to get out there and play with him."
The ninth-seeded Hornets have no margin for error, but they won't need one if their offense better complements their tenacious defense.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 2-1 (350-1)
Chicago Bulls
7 of 21
Record: 40-26
Efficiency Statistics (Rankings): 104.6 Offensive Rating (T-Ninth), 101.8 Defensive Rating (T-12th), Plus-2.7 Net Rating (11th)
Life isn't great for the Chicago Bulls at the moment, but it could be much worse.
They have been battered by the injury bug. Their star-studded backcourt combo of Derrick Rose (torn meniscus) and Jimmy Butler (sprained elbow) are both out of action, as is invaluable sixth man Taj Gibson (sprained ankle). The Bulls have dropped five of their last nine games, and most recently needed overtime to score an unimpressive win over the lowly Sixers.
But they did enough work earlier this season (25-10 through 35 contests) to survive the damage that's now being done. Even with these recent stumbles, they still have a 10.5-game cushion between them and the ninth-seeded Hornets.
As Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau likes to say, this team has enough to get by. They'll need all hands on deck to enjoy any significant postseason success, but even their injury-riddled core can comfortably cruise to a playoff spot.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-25 (16-1)
Dallas Mavericks
8 of 21
Record: 41-25
Efficiency Statistics (Rankings): 107.3 Offensive Rating (Fifth), 102.8 Defensive Rating (14th), Plus-4.5 Net Rating (T-Fifth)
The sky isn't falling on the Dallas Mavericks, but it's a lot closer than newcomer Amar'e Stoudemire would like.
"I came here to win, and we're [4.5] games out of being out of the playoffs, which is unacceptable," Stoudemire said after Dallas' 127-94 loss to Cleveland on Tuesday, per ESPN Dallas' Tim MacMahon. "This is something we can't accept. We've got to find a way to refocus. We've got key into the details of the game of basketball."
If that sounds like a strange take on one of the league's most efficient teams, then you haven't been paying attention to what's happening in Dallas.
The Mavs have two wins to show for their last seven games. Since the All-Star break, both Dirk Nowitzki (39.6 field-goal percentage) and Monta Ellis (38.9) have been trapped in their own shooting slumps. Rajon Rondo has bogged down what was an elite offense. Tyson Chandler, Chandler Parsons, Devin Harris and Al-Farouq Aminu have all battled injuries of late.
But it still isn't time to panic in Dallas. With a five-game buffer on the ninth-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder, the Mavs should be able to avoid a complete collapse.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-2 (28-1)
Detroit Pistons
9 of 21
Record: 23-41
Efficiency Statistics (Rankings): 101.2 Offensive Rating (21st), 103.7 Defensive Rating (T-18th), Minus-2.5 (22nd)
Injuries robbed the Detroit Pistons of their starting point guard, Brandon Jennings, but the team didn't do itself any favors tabbing Reggie Jackson as his replacement.
The former Oklahoma City Thunder spark plug has had a disastrous run in his first audition as a full-time starter. The Pistons have lost eight of nine games with Jackson at the helm, and it's hard not to tie their struggles to his own.
The career 42.7 percent shooter has converted only 37 percent of his field-goal attempts in Motown. He's also coughing up 3.3 giveaways per 36 minutes, or about 15 percent more than Jennings was (2.8).
Unless the light bulb clicks on for young bigs Greg Monroe (16 points, 10.5 rebounds) and Andre Drummond (13.1 points, 13.4 boards), the 12th-seeded Pistons are in serious jeopardy of extending their playoff drought to six seasons.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 12-1 (200-1)
Houston Rockets
10 of 21
Record: 43-21
Efficiency Statistics (Rankings): 103.3 Offensive Rating (T-13th), 99.7 Defensive Rating (T-Third), Plus-3.6 Net Rating (Eighth)
The Houston Rockets don't need a healthy Dwight Howard to clinch a playoff berth. Their 13-7 record since losing the big guy to edema in his right knee hammers home that fact.
But imagine what can happen if Houston gets Superman back in the middle.
The Rockets may already have the league's top offensive talent in MVP front-runner James Harden. The bearded baller has tallied 27 points and 7.1 assists per game this season, marks that have only been cleared by LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Allen Iverson and Russell Westbrook since 2000-01.
If they add a healthy Howard to the mix, they'd have a three-time Defensive Player of the Year anchoring what's already one of the NBA's elite units.
It's scary to think of how high Houston's ceiling sits. But as it pertains to this article, just know that its basement includes a prominent playoff perch.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-30 (22-1)
Indiana Pacers
11 of 21
Record: 29-34
Efficiency Statistics (Rankings): 100.1 Offensive Rating (25th), 100.2 Defensive Rating (T-Seventh), Minus-0.1 Net Rating (17th)
Don't let the above record or statistics fool you. Since Feb. 1, there hasn't been a better team than the Indiana Pacers.
During that stretch, they've won a league-best 85.7 percent of their games (12-2). Their plus-10.5 net efficiency rating over this span is also tops in the NBA.
And, no, they haven't had two-time All-Star swingman Paul George to help with this torrid run. (But they might soon.) Rather, they've relied on their typically stingy defense and an offensive attack that has grown surprisingly potent thanks to the play of George Hill (5.9 assists against 1.2 turnovers his last 11 games) and Rodney Stuckey (18.8 points on 52.2 percent shooting in his last 12).
"The Pacers have more upside than anyone chasing the final two playoff spots," wrote NBA.com's Shaun Powell. "They've won six straight, George is on deck, the upcoming schedule is kind and confidence in the locker room is at a season high."
If the Pacers get George back, they'll have 80 percent of a starting lineup that played in each of the last two conference finals. That experience helps quiet the concern that putting confidence in this club is overly impacted by the recency bias.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-5 (66-1)
Los Angeles Clippers
12 of 21
Record: 42-23
Efficiency Statistics (Rankings): 109.4 Offensive Rating (First), 103.1 Defensive Rating (T-15th), Plus-6.3 Net Rating (Second)
It's OK to admit it. That net efficiency ranking is a little bit startling, isn't it?
The Los Angeles Clippers entered this season as a trendy championship pick, but rare signs of mortality silenced a lot of those discussions. When L.A. stumbled to a four-game losing streak in early February (the last three games of which were all decided by double digits), the Clippers were essentially banished from all championship talks.
But look at those numbers again. Now, process these two: 18.4 points and 10.1 assists. Those are the nightly contributions of point god Chris Paul, a shadow MVP candidate for his ability to hold down the fort without injured All-Star forward Blake Griffin.
With promising reports surfacing on the returns of Griffin and sweet-shooting sixth man Jamal Crawford, the Clippers could once again emerge as a popular title pick. But even if they don't, they'll have nothing to worry about when it comes to snagging a seat at the playoff table.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-25 (20-1)
Miami Heat
13 of 21
Record: 29-35
Efficiency Statistics (Rankings): 101.9 Offensive Rating (T-17th), 103.8 Defensive Rating (T-19th), Minus-1.8 Net Rating (19th)
Remember when the Miami Heat looked like a pesky postseason matchup for any team after landing All-NBA third-team point guard Goran Dragic at the deadline? The basketball gods closed that window and bolted it shut almost immediately.
With no Chris Bosh (blood clot on lung), the Heat have no upside that exists beyond a one-and-done playoff appearance. And even getting that job done is going to be challenging.
Miami still has talent, but its injury report can read like a novel. It's hard finding a rhythm amid so many moving pieces, and harder still to run an efficient offense or a crisp defense without that continuity.
But with a playoff-tested roster and the consistent contributions of surprise star Hassan Whiteside (14.3 points, 13.6 boards, 2.7 blocks over his last 18 outings), it's no easier to rule the Heat out of this race.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 2-1 (200-1)
Milwaukee Bucks
14 of 21
Record: 34-30
Efficiency Statistics (Rankings): 100.7 Offensive Rating (23rd), 99.0 Defensive Rating (Second), Plus-1.7 Net Rating (14th)
Let's pause one second to applaud the job done by first-year Milwaukee Bucks coach Jason Kidd. And let's take another minute to clean up the drool left by scouts salivating over this team's ridiculous collection of length.
OK, you caught me. I'm just buying time for someone to figure out a way to make an offense work when it's being piloted by non-shooter Michael Carter-Williams. The Bucks have cleared the century mark just twice with the reigning Rookie of the Year at the helm, and failed to top 95 points during five of his six games. (For context, only three teams average fewer than 95 points per game.)
If any team can withstand having such a feeble offense, it would figure to be one with a top-two defense. But the Bucks have been a little overly generous of late, and they've paid the price with five losses over their last seven games.
Still, Milwaukee's playoff footing seems solid due to a lack of any major threats. It's possible the hard-charging Pacers could bump the sixth-seeded Bucks down a notch, but it's tough to see Milwaukee falling any further.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-4 (150-1)
New Orleans Pelicans
15 of 21
Record: 36-29
Efficiency Statistics (Rankings): 105.8 Offensive Rating (Seventh), 105.1 Defensive Rating (25th), Plus-0.7 Net Rating (16th)
The New Orleans Pelicans refuse to accept their fate as the poster child for the NBA's playoff seeding problems.
Despite sitting a half-game ahead of the ninth-seeded Thunder, the deck feels heavily stacked against the Pelicans. The three teams surrounding them—Oklahoma City, Dallas and the San Antonio Spurs—have represented the West in each of the last four NBA Finals.
As if that wasn't enough, New Orleans is once again fighting a losing battle with injuries. Starting point guard Jrue Holiday hasn't played since Jan. 12 (stress reaction in right leg), and floor-stretching sixth man Ryan Anderson's last appearance came on Feb. 21 (MCL sprain).
That being said, the Pelicans could have an ace up their sleeves in Anthony Davis. The third-year forward has put up 29.8 points on 55 percent shooting, 10.6 rebounds and 4.2 blocks over his last five games, numbers that are absurd even by his ridiculous standards.
The Pellies, winners of nine of their last 11 games, aren't going down without a fight. But all the heart they're showing still might not be enough to slay the dragons in front of them.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 2-1 (200-1)
Oklahoma City Thunder
16 of 21
Record: 35-29
Efficiency Statistics (Rankings): 103.3 Offensive Rating (T-13th), 101.4 Defensive Rating (11th), Plus-1.9 Net Rating (13th)
The Thunder have 64 games under their belt. Reigning MVP Kevin Durant has only suited up for 27 of those contests.
How many other teams could survive a debilitating loss like that? My guess would be zero, which also happens to be the amount of other clubs that have the fiery Russell Westbrook at their disposal.
The explosive point guard has done his best Oscar Robertson impression of late, averaging 33 points, 10 assists and 9.4 rebounds since Feb. 4. That's at least enough to get Westbrook's name in the MVP discussion, and some analysts feel this run has moved him to the head of that pack.
"With the MVP, it's always about personal criteria and definition of what that "V" really means. Whether it's for the most outstanding, most important or most entertaining, Westbrook's sustained performance over the past two months fits all of the above," wrote ESPN.com's Royce Young.
The Thunder are still waiting on the return of Durant, who had a second surgical procedure on his right foot late last month. Coach Scott Brooks said the team expects to have Durant back in another week or two, per Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman.
Oklahoma City could have a pair of MVPs leading their charge down the stretch. Add in an improved supporting cast, and the Thunder's playoff spot feels as secure as it can with the Pelicans sitting just ahead of them.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-1 (7-1)
Phoenix Suns
17 of 21
Record: 34-32
Efficiency Statistics (Rankings): 104.6 Offensive Rating (T-Ninth), 103.7 Defensive Rating (18th), Plus-0.9 Net Rating (15th)
The Arizona heat can be unrelenting, and the Phoenix Suns seem to be feeling all of it.
They are 6-12 over their last 18 games, a stretch that could put the kibosh on any playoff plans they may have once entertained. Adding injury to insult, combo guard Brandon Knight has no timetable for his return from a sprained ankle, per Paul Coro of The Arizona Republic.
The Suns took a forward-thinking approach at the deadline, getting back Knight, future picks and expiring contracts in trades that shipped out Goran Dragic, Isaiah Thomas, Tyler Ennis and Miles Plumlee. Without Knight, the Suns' spiraling offense could plummet at an even faster rate.
Despite the strides made by Eric Bledsoe (17.1 points, 6.0 assists) and Markieff Morris (15.2 points on 46.6 percent shooting), Phoenix has averaged just 92.9 points per game since Feb. 28 (sixth-fewest in the league).
With a bottom-half defense further complicating matters, the Suns seem a lot further out of this race than their 2.5-game deficit would indicate.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 12-1 (350-1)
Portland Trail Blazers
18 of 21
Record: 42-20
Efficiency Statistics (Rankings): 104.7 Offensive Rating (Eighth), 99.7 Defensive Rating (T-Third), Plus-4.9 Net Rating (Fourth)
Not that you need to tell Portland Trail Blazers fans this, but the basketball gods can be overly cruel.
Following a second-round playoff appearance last season, Portland did everything it could to help take the next step toward title contention. The Blazers jumped from 16th in defensive efficiency to the top five. Their depth issues were addressed in the offseason signings of Steve Blake and Chris Kaman, along with the midseason trade for Arron Afflalo.
Everything Portland could control, it handled in masterful fashion. But it was powerless to stop the season-ending ruptured Achilles tendon suffered by Wesley Matthews, a major two-way contributor and the team's emotional leader.
Even with Afflalo around, the loss of Matthews stings badly.
"Matthews is such an important piece to what they do, on both ends," wrote ESPN.com's Royce Young. "Afflalo is a solid stand-in, but Matthews' spot-up shooting and tenacity defensively will be sorely missed."
If there's a silver lining in this, it's that the Blazers shouldn't feel Matthews' absence too much until playoff time.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-20 (28-1)
San Antonio Spurs
19 of 21
Record: 40-23
Efficiency Statistics (Rankings): 104.4 Offensive Rating (11th), 99.9 Defensive Rating (Fifth), Plus-4.5 Net Rating (T-Fifth)
It's time to sound the annual alarm. The San Antonio Spurs are coming.
The Alamo City nearly fooled everyone this time around. The NBA perpetually sleeps on the Spurs, but this season felt different. With a 34-23 record at the 57-game mark, San Antonio seemed legitimately vulnerable.
Six wins and zero losses later, it clearly isn't. The Spurs seem as dangerous as ever, with a plus-15.8 point-differential since Feb. 27 that stands second to only the red-hot Pacers.
San Antonio had some injury issues earlier this season, but its key contributors are healthy and wildly productive. Tony Parker has averaged 20.5 points on 51.5 percent shooting during this winning streak. Reigning Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard has gone for 21.5 points on 54.5 percent shooting, 8.2 rebounds and 2.7 steals over this same stretch.
Assuming Tim Duncan's hyperextended left elbow is fine, the only movement the Spurs figure to do the rest of the way is the kind that sends them further up the conference standings.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-15 (17-2)
Toronto Raptors
20 of 21
Record: 38-26
Efficiency Statistics (Rankings): 107.8 Offensive Rating (Third), 104.6 Defensive Rating (22nd), Plus-3.2 Net Rating (10th)
No one is playing worse basketball than the Toronto Raptors right now. Their 1-9 record over their last 10 games isn't simply the worst of all playoff teams during that stretch, it trails every club in the entire league.
Granted, the Raptors have lost to a lot of good teams during this skid. But they also ate a five-point loss to the Knicks, and have allowed their last seven opponents to average 109.6 points per game. (For reference, the 30th-ranked Timberwolves surrender 105.4 points a night.)
Toronto has firepower, but not enough to compensate for a defense this giving. Not when the team's top-three scorers—Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Louis Williams—are all shooting below 42 percent from the field.
If the Raptors can't snap out of this soon, they might have to consider making major changes over the offseason. But the advantage they built over the first half of the season is more than enough to save their playoff berth, no matter how ugly this gets.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-25 (33-1)
Washington Wizards
21 of 21
Record: 36-28
Efficiency Statistics (Rankings): 102.1 Offensive Rating (16th), 100.1 Defensive Rating (Sixth), Plus-2.0 Net Rating (12th)
Some of the Raptors' biggest fans might reside in the nation's capital. Toronto's nosedive has helped detract attention away from the Washington Wizards' own plummet.
Washington is just 5-13 over its last 18 games. That's how the East's former No. 2 seed has fallen all the way to fifth. The Wizards are twice as close to the sixth-seeded Bucks (two games) as they are the second-seeded Cavaliers (four games).
Their offense has skidded to a halt. The Wizards are averaging the third-fewest points since Feb. 2 (92.9 per game), plagued both by John Wall's struggles (38.4 percent shooting over his last 12 games) and the team's inability to put consistent scoring threats around the All-Star point guard.
The Wizards aren't instilling any confidence that their playoff appearance will be a lengthy one, but they'll get the chance to compete in the second season nonetheless.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-20 (66-1)
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
