Phil Jackson Must Also Consider Life After Carmelo Anthony During Offseason
"Win-now mode" is one of the more common cliches when it comes to the state of an NBA team, especially in New York.
It's also one of the most dangerous.
Being in win-now mode implies that losing later is okay. With the future already mortgaged, it opens the door to chronic failure should the win-now experiment falter.
There are ways to win now without necessarily being a win-now team. For the New York Knicks, this is important for Phil Jackson to remember heading into this offseason.
It's true that each NBA career is finite, and after signing 30-year-old Carmelo Anthony to a five-year deal, the Knicks' cornerstone will be in the twilight of his prime over these next few seasons. Jackson could possibly have trouble keeping the bigger picture in mind.
But Jackson was hired to rebuild the Knicks into a winning organization, and the Knicks franchise doesn't expire with Anthony's contract—or Jackson's own. Both 'Melo and Phil's deals may run out after the 2018 season, and when they do—regardless of the Knicks' success in the meantime—Jackson is responsible for ushering in the next wave of New York success.
And that hinges on the front office's choices this offseason.
Okafor vs. Towns
Luckily for the 12-50 Knicks, this season's flop will make it easy to land a franchise-altering player through the draft. But even if they end up with the first overall pick this summer, there will still be an important call to make.
At No. 1, it will likely come down to Duke center Jahlil Okafor and Kentucky center Karl-Anthony Towns. While Okafor may be one of the toughest prospects to pass on in recent history, Towns makes for the better long-term selection in New York.
The near-consensus No. 1 prospect through much of the season, Okafor would present a few short- and long-term issues for the Knicks. His offensive polish is unheralded for his age and is viewed as a sure thing. But the 6'11" big man has shown weakness in nearly every other area of the game.
He's been a constant target in the screen game and hasn't yet figured out how to translate his outstanding offensive footwork to the other end. He isn't viewed as a rim protector, and his athleticism has been limited with the Blue Devils. Over 30 games with Duke, he's put up a line of 17.6 points and 9.2 rebounds per night, to go along with 1.5 blocks.
Towns, while not as skilled on the block, has the potential to outgrow Okafor in every other area. In John Calipari's platoon system with the Wildcats, the 6'11", 250-pounder has averaged just 20 minutes a night but is Kentucky's third-leading scorer with 9.7 points per game, leading rebounder at 6.6 and its leader in blocks with 2.4 on average. Per 40 minutes, his line amounts to 18.8 points, 12.8 boards and 4.6 blocks.
His impact on the Kentucky defense has been tangible. Overall, the Wildcats have sported the NCAA's best defense, allowing just 82.5 points per 100 possessions. But with Towns on the floor, that number drops to a team-best 75.9.
In selecting Okafor, the Knicks may be getting a player better suited to win in 2015-16. Towns will likely need more seasoning to reach his potential. But by taking the Duke center, the Knicks would be locking themselves into a certain type of roster for the length of his tenure. They'd need to build around his deficiencies, whereas with Towns, they could rely on him to improve all aspects of the team.
Unlucky Draw?
Should New York not end up with a top-two pick, there won't be any shortage of directions to go with an early lottery selection. D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay both project to be difference makers from the point guard position, both bringing 6'5" length and 6'8 ½" wingspans to their lineups. On the wings, Justise Winslow and Stanley Johnson have emerged as versatile, two-way threats.
Reports have already emerged, specifically from Brian Windhorst of ESPN (h/t Ian Begley of ESPNNewYork.com), filled with speculation that Jackson is gauging interest in a potential trade of the pick, which is good. He should be scoping out the worth of his assets. If that pick can land New York a player like DeMarcus Cousins, who according to Bleacher Report's Howard Beck was made available at the deadline, then it's an option that should be explored.
But short of acquiring a player of that caliber, given the Knicks' lack of draft assets in the years to come, trading this one away would seem to only repeat the cycle of blunders that's been playing on loop since James Dolan took control.
Free Agency
With cap room for the first time in five years, it's easy to understand the Knicks' desire to spend big. But preserving that space over multiple seasons, if possible, is often the key to maintaining long-term success.
A prime example is one of the rare teams under the salary cap: the Eastern Conference-leading Atlanta Hawks. With moves like signing Kyle Korver to a contract that decreases in annual value, grabbing Paul Millsap on a bargain two-year deal in 2013 and extending their homegrown point guard, Jeff Teague, at a modest price, the Hawks are not only contending but have enabled themselves to have roster flexibility.
For New York, the big fish may be out of play, with Marc Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge and Millsap all in favorable situations at their current homes. Jackson may have no choice but to bite on some lower-level deals, which would help maintain flexibility moving forward.
It's almost impossible to ink a top-level player to a short-term deal, like Atlanta did with Millsap two summers ago. But buying low on a player like Wesley Matthews, whose timetable to return from a torn Achilles is in question, could pay off.
If the point guard need isn't filled via the draft, Brandon Knight, at just 23, could be a potential target at the right price. Milwaukee's Khris Middleton has been a pleasant surprise this season and could be another option for New York. He is also just 23. If Ed Davis opts out of his contract with the Los Angeles Lakers, he could fill a defensive need in the frontcourt at a reasonable price.
If it isn't possible to grab the flashiest name, Jackson shouldn't hesitate to collect a number of these other free agents on much more modest contracts—ones that could enable New York to have room to spend in 2016 and/or 2017. As the team witnessed with the Amar'e Stoudemire signing, making a splash for splashing's sake is the wrong move and can cripple a franchise for years.
After enduring a painful regular season, the Knicks will be in a favorable position as soon as the final buzzer sounds on Apr. 15 at Madison Square Garden. Jackson's staffers will have their first true run at constructing their own team through roster flexibility.
If it's their last, well, Knicks fans have seen this movie before.
Follow me on Twitter at @JSDorn6. Stats from Sports-Reference.com. Salary data from HoopsHype.
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