10 Bold Predictions for the Final Month of the 2014-15 NBA Season
With just over a month left in the 2014-15 NBA season, several players and teams will be putting their heads down in a charge for individual honors, improved seeding or just the right rhythm for the postseason.
If they find that higher gear (or—in the case of teams looking for more ping-pong balls in the lottery—that lower gear), those honors and records will be reached.
The following predictions are based on that. And they're bold in the sense that they're possible, but have a high chance of not coming true.
How will the Western Conference playoff picture look when the games are over? What's going to happen with the race for eighth seed in the East? Will Russell Westbrook continue his ridiculous play when Kevin Durant returns?
Those questions and more will be answered, first for individual players and then for teams.
Rudy Gobert Will Lead the NBA in Total Blocked Shots
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Stifle Tower, French Rejection, Gobstopper. Call him whatever you want. Just know that the Rudy Gobert sensation that's sweeping over the NBA isn't ending any time soon.
In the last week alone, Gobert's been the subject of national media profiles from Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry, SB Nation's Paul Flannery and Bleacher Report's Michael Pina.
The reason for all the attention? Gobert's transformative defensive ability that has been critical in turning the Utah Jazz into the league's best defensive team since February 1.
In that timeframe, Utah is giving up just 96 points per 100 possessions. And that number gets even more impressive when you look at how the Jazz have performed after the Enes Kanter trade. Since the deadline-day move, they have a stifling defensive rating of 89.7.
Again, the Stifle Tower is largely responsible for that, as he's been cleaning up around the rim since replacing Kanter as Utah's full-time starting center. Of his 141 total blocks, 57 have come during his 16 starts.
If he keeps that pace up, he'll finish the season with 208 blocks. That's just enough to pass Serge Ibaka, who currently leads the league and is on pace for 203.
Kyle Korver Gets His 50-50-90 Season
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Kyle Korver entered the All-Star break shooting 51.2 percent from the field, 52.3 percent from three-point range and 91.1 percent from the free-throw line.
Finishing a season at those levels would make Korver the inaugural member of the 50/50/90 club.
A post-break slump has dropped Korver to a shooting slash of 48.8/49.2/90.9, but he's still well within reach. For a shooter of his ability, this slump is just temporary.
The Washington Post's Seth Partnow wrote about Korver putting himself in a position to pull off this amazing feat:
"Any time a player even flirts with an accomplishment such as 50/50/90 (FG%, 3P% and FT% respectively) as Korver is doing this season, it has to be considered a career season. But for Korver it appears more the end point of several things converging in his favor.
For one, he has improved. Not really as a shooter, he always had that. Rather, Korver has put himself in position to be one of the most feared offensive players in the league by getting better at everything else.
By becoming a better rebounder, defender and passer, he is no longer simply a shooting specialist, camping at the arc. More minutes, more touches and greater involvement result.
"
The extra opportunities are what set Korver apart from Steve Kerr, who technically had a 50/50/90 season in 1995-96 with the Chicago Bulls. Unfortunately for Kerr, he didn't take enough free throws to qualify for that leaderboard.
Korver's role on the Hawks and a return to the shooting form he displayed before the break will make him the first qualified member of the NBA's 50/50/90 club.
Russell Westbrook Wins the Scoring Title
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Kevin Durant missing the majority of the season has allowed us to see exactly what full Russell Westbrook looks like. Basically, it's a devastatingly efficient Sharknado of scoring, rebounding and distributing from all over the floor.
Since the All-Star break, Westbrook is averaging 34.3 points, 11.4 assists and 10.3 rebounds, a surge that has pulled his overall scoring average up to 27.4 and ahead of James Harden for the league lead.
| 1 | Russell Westbrook | OKC | 27.4 | .434 | .285 |
| 2 | James Harden | HOU | 27.1 | .447 | .380 |
| 3 | LeBron James | CLE | 26.0 | .488 | .338 |
| 4 | Anthony Davis | NOP | 24.3 | .544 | .111 |
| 5 | DeMarcus Cousins | SAC | 23.6 | .469 | .667 |
Not even a broken, dented face could deter Westbrook for more than one game.
At this point, the only thing that might slow the rampage down would be the return of Durant, who's averaged 19.1 field-goal attempts over the course of his career.
Harden doesn't have that kind of shot-taker sharing the floor in Houston, making him the unquestioned top dog every single night.
And although Durant doesn't have an exact timetable for his return, he is confident he'll be back, according to a tweet from The Oklahoman's Anthony Slater, "Kevin Durant said there's 'no doubt' he'll return this season: "I'm not packing it in at all."
Will that make enough of an impact on Westbrook's shot selection to give Harden a shot at the top spot? Certainly.
But we may also be witnessing a transfer of power from Durant to Westbrook. Even if the former comes back, he's likely to be on a minutes restriction, and the latter has a firm grasp on the reins of the team.
Anthony Davis Will Set the All-Time Mark for Player-Efficiency Rating
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If Anthony Davis finished the season with his current player efficiency rating of 31.3, it would be the eighth-highest PER ever recorded. Only Wilt Chamberlain, LeBron James and Michael Jordan have finished higher.
The No. 1 mark belongs to Chamberlain, who posted a PER of 31.8 for the 1962-63 season.
Meanwhile, in 2014-15, the New Orleans Pelicans may need that kind of insane production from Davis to secure the No. 8 seed in the West. New Orleans is currently one game behind the Thunder for the last playoff berth, but the chase will become exponentially more difficult if Durant comes back.
Davis appears to understand the gravity of the situation, lifting the Pelicans with averages of 30.3 points, 12.3 rebounds, 5.3 blocks and 1.3 steals in his three games since returning from a shoulder injury.
The New York Knicks Will Only Win One More Game
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It's probably different depending on what day you click the link, but the New York Knicks' roster of active players reads more like a D-League team than one of the NBA's most storied franchises.
| 2 | Andrea Bargnani | .479 | .400 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 13.0 |
| 4 | Tim Hardaway | .383 | .328 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 11.2 |
| 5 | Langston Galloway | .381 | .348 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 11.0 |
| 7 | Alexey Shved | .350 | .300 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 10.7 |
| 9 | Jose Calderon | .415 | .415 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 9.1 |
| 10 | Lance Thomas | .426 | .000 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 8.4 |
| 11 | Jason Smith | .448 | .375 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 7.9 |
| 12 | Louis Amundson | .504 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 7.2 | |
| 13 | Shane Larkin | .419 | .330 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 5.7 |
| 14 | Quincy Acy | .469 | .286 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 5.5 |
| 15 | Cole Aldrich | .478 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 5.1 | |
| 17 | Cleanthony Early | .310 | .250 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 4.2 |
| 19 | Travis Wear | .430 | .400 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 4.0 |
By trading Tyson Chandler, Raymond Felton, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Pablo Prigioni and buying out Amar'e Stoudemire, Phil Jackson has stripped this team down to the bone.
The team that's left isn't likely to win another game without getting lucky or facing an opponent that's resting players (or some combination of both).
The assumption here is that the formula indeed comes together, but only once between now and the end of the season.
The Los Angeles Lakers Will Finish Last in the West
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Speaking of historically important teams that are currently terrible.
The Los Angeles Lakers have the 27th-worst record in the NBA and are currently clinging to 15th place in the West, just 1.5 games ahead of the Minnesota Timberwolves.
And while the current state of the Lakers may not change much between now and the end of the year, there's no question that the 16th-place Timberwolves are getting better.
The acquisition of Kevin Garnett, with Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic returning from injuries, has helped, but the biggest factor is Ricky Rubio.
Thanks to an ankle injury, Rubio's appeared in just 18 games this season, but his impact is clear. When he's on the floor, the Wolves have a net rating of plus-2.3. When he's on the bench, it's minus-11.7.
As the starting lineup of Rubio, Martin, Andrew Wiggins, Garnett and Pekovic continues to gain chemistry, the Timberwolves will almost certainly make up the games between them and the Lakers.
Indiana Pacers Will Finish .500 or Better
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Two factors have suddenly made the Indiana Pacers one of the scarier teams in the Eastern Conference: They've found their groove on defense, and Paul George is getting ever closer to a return.
Their 28-34 record would suggest that playing at least six games over .500 over the last quarter of the season is unlikely, but they're 11-2 in their last 13 and the defense is suddenly dominant.
On the season, the Pacers' defensive rating of 100.3 ranks eighth in the NBA. Since the All-Star break, it's a ridiculous 91.9. Only the Utah Jazz have been better.
What's more encouraging is that the offense has been better too, thanks in large part to the return of George Hill, who's averaging a team-best 13.8 points in 23 appearances.
The improvement on both ends has catapulted the Pacers into eighth place in the East.
To finish at .500, the Pacers would have to go 13-7 down the stretch, something that's certainly not out of reach for the team with the league's best net rating since the break.
The Atlanta Hawks Will Post the NBA's Best Record
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All season, the Atlanta Hawks and Golden State Warriors have battled for the NBA's top record and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.
Playoff seeding could play a big factor in who crosses the finish line first.
The Pacers are currently eighth in the East, which would put them in line to face the Hawks in the first round. That's a scary matchup if George is back and healthy.
But with the way Indiana's surging (and the way everyone else below the bottom four is falling apart), the Hawks will do everything they can to stay in first and match up against the Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat or whichever team snags the No. 8 seed.
Meanwhile, the Warriors are slated to play the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round. And even if OKC gets Durant back in the next few games, catching the Dallas Mavericks is unlikely. The Warriors match up much better with the older Mavericks than with a healthy OKC.
Considering they have a 5.5-game lead over the Memphis Grizzlies, a mini-tank job to drop to second is unlikely, but would help the Warriors win a first-round series.
It's tricky to balance between that and maintaining an edge. At the very least, Golden State doesn't need to feel bad about resting key guys a bit more during the stretch run.
All Eight Western Conference Playoff Teams Get to 50 Wins
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This one is almost entirely dependent on the Thunder, who would have to be lights-out for the last month of the season to reach 50 wins.
| Team | Record Needed to Reach 50 Wins |
| Golden State Warriors | 1-20 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 6-14 |
| Houston Rockets | 7-12 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 9-12 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 10-9 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 9-8 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 11-9 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 15-4 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 16-3 |
But Westbrook's recent play, the addition of Enes Kanter and the prospect of Durant returning leaves the door open for OKC to make just such a miraculous run.
If all eight teams were to reach that plateau, it would be the first time an entire conference was represented by 50-win teams since the West did it in 2010.
What does this all mean? No matter how the playoff picture shapes up, we're in store for some stellar first-round action.
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat Will Meet in the First Round
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The overall story arch of LeBron's career took an unexpected and dramatic turn this summer, when he announced "I'm Coming Home" in Sports Illustrated.
In the essay, LeBron said:
"I’m not promising a championship. I know how hard that is to deliver. We’re not ready right now. No way. Of course, I want to win next year, but I’m realistic. It will be a long process, much longer than it was in 2010. My patience will get tested. I know that. I’m going into a situation with a young team and a new coach.
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He then went on to name several young Cleveland Cavaliers he thought he could help, without mentioning 2013 and 2014 No. 1 picks Anthony Bennett and Andrew Wiggins, respectively.
The omissions led to speculation, which eventually gave way to the reality of the Kevin Love trade that sent Bennett and Wiggins to Minnesota.
More trades during the season brought J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Timofey Mozgov to Cleveland, clearly signaling that "want to win next year" trumped "not ready right now."
We don't know if Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade view LeBron's departure through this lens, but all the evidence points to The Decision 2.0 being tied to the opportunity to play with younger versions of themselves.
In the playoffs, they may get the chance to show LeBron that he made the wrong choice.
Cleveland's currently second in the East, and with Miami just a half-game behind the seventh-place Charlotte Hornets, a first-round matchup could be in the cards.
Due to blood clots in his lungs, Bosh would miss that series, but the idea of LeBron, Irving and Love against Wade, Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside still has tons of intrigue.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats and salary figures are courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com and are current through games played on March 8, 2015.
Andy Bailey covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him @AndrewDBailey.
