Do the Memphis Grizzlies Have a Limited Ceiling Without Perimeter Success?
The Memphis Grizzlies' offense has shrunk in the past two months after it appeared fully formed with a three-point attack to complement the interior game early this season.
One may wonder whether this regression will hinder the team's status as a title contender this year.
This might have been an inevitable contemplation. Courtney Lee couldn't sustain the 55.6 percent he shot from deep through Dec. 17, as virtually no starter besides Kyle Korver can. Mike Conley was bound to regress to his mean after hitting 44.9 percent through Dec. 13.
Believing the Grizzlies would have stayed in the top 10 in that category wasn't reasonable.
Taking a Dive Behind the 3-Point Line
Memphis has fallen tremendously beyond the arc, shooting 30 percent while taking 14.5 threes per game in the past 30 contests. Compare that with 36 percent on 15.9 per game in the first 32 games.
Amid this drop, Conley and Lee have made 33.7 percent and 36.8 percent, respectively, of their shots from downtown.
Grizzlies head coach Dave Joerger was at a loss when asked by The Commercial Appeal about the team's three-point struggles.
"I wish I could pinpoint the issue. We shoot a lot in practice. I think we've got fresh legs," he said. "The guys just have to trust that they've put the work in over the course of their career and over the course of the summer and trust that it was as good as it was the first 25 games."
Generally, the Grizzlies offense has slumped recently. In the past 13 games, they're 7-6 while scoring 100 points per 100 possessions and shooting 43.9 percent from the field.
The Memphis Flyer's Kevin Lipe remarked the following:
"The Grizzlies' offense still mostly looks like a pile of garbage. Guys aren't communicating, aren't moving the ball around, aren't moving when they don't have the ball and aren't making the right plays when they do try to move the ball. I'm not sure why that is; Joerger's point that he's messing with rotations probably has something to do with it, but it can't be the whole story.
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The Grizzlies will be a better prepared contender once the offense comes around.
The question is how much three-point action is needed as part of that. Recent history, the extent to which Memphis can rely on defense and the amount of perimeter success needed weigh on it.
Perils for Recent Teams Focused on Attacking Inside
The Grizzlies face the ghosts of not only their past few playoff appearances, but also other contenders of recent vintage that didn't fare well on the outside.
The Grizzlies have been hurt by their neglect of the three-point game.
In the 2013 Western Conference Finals, the San Antonio Spurs decimated the Grizzlies offense by attacking Conley, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, their only scorers of consequence. The Oklahoma City Thunder stopped Memphis by collapsing inside on Gasol and Randolph.
But the Grizzlies' problem wasn't merely that the core trio mainly attacked the paint, but that they were their only credible options.
The Spurs could let Quincy Pondexter do as he wished because he couldn't kill them. As in 2011, the Thunder didn't need to worry about anyone besides Conley, Gasol or Randolph last year because Mike Miller didn't often touch the ball and Lee wasn't comfortable in the offense.
Stronger contenders have fallen against more dynamic offensive powers.
In 2011, the Los Angeles Lakers, who placed seventh in offensive rating but 17th in three-point field-goal percentage, were swept by the Dallas Mavericks, who placed eighth in offensive rating and shot 46.2 percent from downtown that series with a variety of gunmen.
However, the Lakers won back-to-back titles before that with subpar three-point shooting.
The Boston Celtics fell to the Lakers in 2010, but that was a factor of the fading offensive capacity of an aging team.
During LeBron James' first tour with the Cleveland Cavaliers, they were unspectacular from the outside. Then again, their offense aside from LeBron was underwhelming.
Hence, the need for optimal offensive options plagued these teams more than their perimeter struggles.
What the Defense Can Stave off
The Grizzlies' contender status is supported by their top-11 ranking in both offensive and defensive rating. As long as they iron out offensive issues, balance will be a boon in their playoff push.
Three-point defense might stand in the way, but it's improving. The Grizzlies are 19th in opponent three-point field-goal percentage (35 percent) and 22nd in long-range attempts allowed (23.1 per game). They've allowed 31.5 percent on 22 three-point shots per game in the past 21 games.
The defensive rotations on the perimeter are a bit better. Having Nick Calathes in the rotation regularly helps since he persistently pressures outside shooters.
The Commercial Appeal's Peter Edmiston pointed out how Calathes and Tony Allen shut down opponents on deep attempts when they're on the floor together.
Still, one must wonder if they will stay strong defending the perimeter. Calathes' minutes will be squeezed as Conley and other veteran guards fill out the rotation. Conley hasn't given a reasonable effort in defending threes, although he told Edmiston he's dealing with numerous ailments:
One can only hope he turns it around after healing.
If Memphis struggles to stop playoff opponents behind the three-point line, they must connect on at least some deep shots to advance in the postseason.
The Uptick to Come
Conley and Lee haven't lost it for the year at this range.
Conley's health has certainly impacted his shooting. His stroke will return with better health.
While Lee bottomed out after the All-Star break last year, shooting 34.6 percent from long range, that was an outlier for him. In his career, Lee is 37.6 percent in the last two months of the season. He may not return to early-season form, but he'll at least be solid.
Vince Carter, who recently returned from a left foot tendon injury, is hitting 27.1 percent of his threes this year, 10.3 percent below his career mark. One wouldn't expect Carter to rebound in the last six weeks.
However, he could pull off a couple of hot playoff performances, as veterans are wont to do.
Jeff Green is another three-point option. Green is at 29.7 percent on three long-range attempts per game after making three of 14 in the past seven games. Lipe noted that the man Memphis acquired from the Boston Celtics in January is looking lost, settling for pull-up jumpers and negatively affecting the offense.
Also, Lipe tweeted about Green's new place in the rotation:
Playing as a stretch 4 may enable Green to take advantage of mismatches on the outside.
Even though the Grizzlies' three-point shooting isn't great, they have a couple of options.
Also, consider that the burden doesn't rest as heavily on one or two players as it did last year. In 2013-14, Miller and Conley combined to take slightly fewer than half of Memphis' threes:
This year, more players are attempting a significant share of the Grizzlies' deep shots. Note that Green's share is lower since he's worn the three shades of blue for about two months:
With two reliable threats and two looming as occasional helpers, the Grizzlies are somewhat better off than last season, when Miller was the only one making threes in the playoffs.
Conclusion
The Grizzlies shouldn't be too worried about a lack of three-point firepower hurting them. Conley and Lee will rebound, even if they're not as hot as they were early in the year. Green, who had a sense of Memphis' offensive operations when he arrived, should settle down and make enough threes to help.
While the Grizzlies can't lift themselves in the playoffs with threes, the more important feature of this season is their wider array of credible scorers.
Beyond the core trio, Green scores in double figures regularly and Lee ensures the three-point dimension when Conley focuses on driving for layups.
Better perimeter shooting would make the Grizzlies unstoppable in the postseason, but balancing tenacious defense with proficient offense has made them a force.
Statistics are current through March 8 games. Unless otherwise noted, advanced metrics come from Basketball-Reference.com.
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