2015 Fantasy Football Outlook for Buffalo Bills Stars
The Buffalo Bills fantasy football prospectus for 2015 shifted dramatically in recent days. The Bills sent inside linebacker Kiko Alonso to the Philadelphia Eagles for star running back LeSean McCoy, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter via Twitter.
"Filed to ESPN: Bills have notified LB Kiko Alonso he is going to be traded to Philadelphia for RB LeSean McCoy. Trade official next week.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 3, 2015
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McCoy instantly headlines the Bills roster of potential fantasy stars in 2015, complemented by Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins.
New head coach Rex Ryan brought former San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator Greg Roman to Buffalo to employ the strong running game championed by both coaches, according to The Buffalo News’ Vic Carucci via Twitter (h/t David Fucillo of SB Nation’s Niners Nation).
"New #Bills OC Greg Roman will concentrate mainly on run game. QB coach David Lee & WR coach Sanjay Lal will focus on passing game.
— Vic Carucci (@viccarucci) January 26, 2015
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The McCoy trade was a bold stroke by general manager Doug Whaley that took just 20 minutes to unfold, according to NFL Media’s Michael Silver via Twitter (h/t Neil Greenburg of The Washington Post).
"One Bills source: 'Holy s---, this went down in 20 minutes...'
— Michael Silver (@MikeSilver) March 4, 2015
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The first-time GM recovered nicely from the abrupt exodus of starting quarterback Kyle Orton (who retired) and head coach Doug Marrone—who signed on as Jacksonville’s assistant head and offensive line coach after unexpectedly resigning in Buffalo.
Buffalo’s outlook on New Year’s Day appeared so bleak that former Bills GM Bill Polian declined an advisory role with the team, according to ESPN’s Chris Mortenson via Twitter.
McCoy’s presence instantly lifts the fantasy outlook for almost every member of the Bills offense.
Honorable Mentions
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Justin Brown, WR
Buffalo picked up Brown off the waiver wire early in 2015, according to ESPN.com’s Mike Rodak via Twitter.
"Bills claim WR Justin Brown off waivers from Steelers.
— Mike Rodak (@mikerodak) February 3, 2015
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The 2013 sixth-rounder out of Oklahoma will compete for a reserve role on the Bills roster in 2015. His fantasy value is nil.
Chris Gragg, TE
Gragg didn’t see the field after Buffalo signed MarQueis Gray in late November.
Rotoworld currently ranks the 2013 seventh-rounder out of Arkansas second on the Bills depth chart at tight end.
MarQueis Gray, TE
The Bills snagged Gray off Minnesota’s practice squad to fill in for the injured Scott Chandler, according to WCR 550’s Joe Buscaglia via Twitter.
"#Bills have claimed TE MarQuies Gray and waived HB Phillip Tanner. Gray is a former college QB. Played with the Vikings and Browns.
— Joe Buscaglia (@JoeBuscaglia) November 20, 2014
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His fantasy value will drop from almost-nothing to absolute zero if Buffalo picks up a tight end in free agency or early in the draft.
Deonte Thompson, WR
The Bills nabbed Thompson off the Ravens practice squad late in 2014, according to Aaron Wilson of The Baltimore Sun:
"He ran track and played football at the University of Florida and was arguably the fastest players on the Ravens with 4.21-second speed in the 40-yard dash.
The Ravens were paying Thompson more than double the usual rate for a weekly practice squad salary as an incentive to keep him.
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For now the sprinter is just another name on a crowded depth chart at wide receiver. He bears little fantasy value unless he cracks the starting lineup.
Marquise Goodwin, WR
Goodwin caught just one pass as a reserve wide receiver in 2014 after making 17 catches in his rookie year.
The 2013 third-rounder out of Texas will be in danger of dropping out of sight if he can’t contribute more on offense and special teams.
Bryce Brown, RB
Before the blockbuster LeSean McCoy deal, the Eagles traded another running back to the Bills on Day 3 of the 2014 draft. Brown never passed Anthony Dixon on the depth chart, but Doug Whaley says he’ll get another shot at a reserve position in 2015, according to Jay Skurski of The Buffalo News.
“We’re excited to see him come in with a clean slate like everybody else and perform like we think he should," the GM said.
Fantasy owners should not share in Whaley’s excitement. Brown is a third-stringer at best in Buffalo, which means he lacks any fantasy relevance in 2015.
EJ Manuel, QB
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Manuel’s struggles through his first two NFL seasons are well-documented. The 2013 first-rounder out of Florida State lost the starting gig to Kyle Orton after just four games in 2014.
There’s no lack of constructive criticism of Manuel’s game; C.J. Spiller was the most recent critic on NFL Total Access:
"I think the biggest thing that he learned was when Kyle came in and took over, I think he learned you can't be buddy-buddy with everybody. You the face of the franchise. You the quarterback. So you have to demand certain things—you have to demand everything. You have to let the receivers know where they should be if they want to get the ball. You have the let the running back know, 'This is where the blitz is coming from. I need you to get over there and pick it up.'
I think early on, he just really didn't understand how to step on guys' toes. Once Kyle took over, he seen how Kyle did it, and that kinda helped him.
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Sammy Watkins agreed, according to Mike Rodak of ESPN.com:
"We just had a different approach to practice. [Orton] demands what he wants out of us. He's more of a veteran guy. The way he talked, the way he handles business, the way he looks at plays and breaks down defenses, it's kind of different than EJ.
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Greg Roman discussed his expectations from Manuel before the Bills traded for Matt Cassel, according to Kevin Patra of NFL.com:
"Really he and everybody else, once we get through this evaluation process, we're going to have a very clean slate. What they might've been asked to do or done in the past is really not relevant to what we may or may not ask him to do. So to sit here and pontificate about this, that and the other is a little premature.
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Presumably, Manuel will compete with Cassel for the No. 1 quarterback job in Buffalo through training camp.
Monitor the battle closely, but don’t plan on adding Manuel to your 2015 fantasy bench unless he wins the job and improves vastly.
Anthony Dixon, RB
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Greg Roman is reuniting with one of his reserve weapons from his San Francisco days in Dixon. The five-year veteran dabbled at RB2 for Buffalo last season when Fred Jackson and/or C.J. Spiller missed time with injuries.
He finished 2014 with a career-high 105 rushes for 432 yards and two touchdowns but couldn’t overtake Jackson for starting duties.
“Boobie” Dixon will compete for RB3 on the Bills roster this offseason, seated far away from any fantasy relevance.
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Scott Chandler, TE
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Chandler defines the prototypical possession tight end. The 6’7”, 270-pound Iowa product averaged 11.6 yards per catch and 4.25 touchdowns in his four seasons with Buffalo.
In a division where Bills observers get to watch Rob Gronkowski dominate twice per year, it’s no wonder Chandler leaves analysts like Matthew Fairburn of Syracuse.com wanting more: "They are still searching for a tight end that can change the way a defense approaches their passing game. Scott Chandler is a reliable veteran presence, but finding an athletic playmaker at the position should be a priority."
Some interesting options are available in the draft, according to Mike Rodak of ESPN.com. But Buffalo must wait until pick No. 50 in the second round thanks to the 2014 trade up with Cleveland for Sammy Watkins.
The Bills currently sit $30.4 million under the cap, which is plenty of cash to attract a top-tier free agent like Julius Thomas. Jimmy Graham touts the most generous tight end contract at $10 million per year.
Whether Buffalo looks at other options or sticks with Chandler in his contract year, he’s nothing more than a desperation TE2 for fantasy purposes in 2015.
Chris Hogan, WR
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The Bills chose to retain Hogan for 2015, according to WGR 550’s Joe Buscaglia via Twitter:
"The #Bills tendered contracts to ERFAs WR Chris Hogan, DT Corbin Bryant and WR Justin Brown
— Joe Buscaglia (@JoeBuscaglia) March 5, 2015
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The fourth-year understudy from Monmouth—home of the Hawks—emerged to become Buffalo’s third-leading receiver in 2014.
Greg Roman and Matt Cassel will probably rely on high-percentage passes to complement a strong running game, which means Hogan’s greatest value will come as a sleeper in points-per-reception formats in 2015.
Matt Cassel, QB
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While the LeSean McCoy trade enraptured Western New York and the nation, Doug Whaley went back to work, trading for Matt Cassel on March 4, according to Chris Brown of Buffalo Bills.com.
Buffalo acquired Cassel and a 2015 sixth-rounder from the Minnesota Vikings for a 2015 fifth-round and 2016 seventh-round pick, according to Fox Sports’ Alex Marvez via Twitter (h/t Tim Daniels of Bleacher Report):
". @buffalobills swap their 1st 2015 5th-round pick for @Vikings 2015 6th-rounder and give Min a 2016 7th-rounder for Matt Cassel @NFLonFOX
— Alex Marvez (@alexmarvez) March 4, 2015
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Cassel boasted the second-highest passer rating compared to the most experienced veteran quarterbacks on the open market, according to Brown.
| Quarterback | Age (on Sept. 10, 2015) | Games/Started | Rating |
| Matt Cassel | 33 | 91/71 | 80.1 |
| Michael Vick | 35 | 138/112 | 80.4 |
| Matt Moore | 31 | 49/25 | 79.2 |
| Jake Locker | 27 | 30/23 | 79.0 |
| Colt McCoy | 28 | 35/33 | 78.2 |
| Brian Hoyer | 29 | 32/17 | 76.8 |
| Christian Ponder | 27 | 38/36 | 75.9 |
| Mark Sanchez | 28 | 71/70 | 74.1 |
The move did not impress CBSSports.com’s Brad Gagnon, who listed the Bills as No. 1 in his “quarterback desperation ranking”:
"Matt Cassel couldn't cut it in Kansas City or Minnesota. To boot, they lack a first-round pick while having limited money to spend on the free-agent market. The shame of it is that with that stacked defense and an offense featuring Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy, the Bills would be a contender if they just had a steady presence under center.
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Cassel is a competent game manager and could help lift Buffalo from its 18th-place ranking in NFL scoring—22nd when adjusted for standard fantasy scoring.
But don’t look to him to manage your fantasy team in 2015 unless it’s loaded with top-tier talent at other positions.
Fred Jackson, RB
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Jackson owners should anticipate a greatly reduced role in Buffalo’s backfield with LeSean McCoy joining the mix.
Jackson timeshared with C.J. Spiller over the past five seasons, but McCoy is accustomed to a larger workload, per Jared Dubin of CBSSports.com:
"Jackson seemingly alternated healthy and injury-prone seasons in his eight years with Buffalo. Neither player ever carried more than 237 times in a single season, though, while McCoy toted it 314 and 312 times, respectively, the last two years.
There should still be room for Jackson to have a role in the offense even with McCoy around, and limiting his touches should help him stay healthy.
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McCoy owners must handcuff Jackson in the later rounds, but otherwise the 34-year-old projects no higher than a reserve.
C.J. Spiller, RB
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It’s obvious but still worth reporting: Spiller and the Bills are breaking up after the LeSean McCoy trade, according to ESPN.com’s Mike Rodak via Twitter:
"C.J. Spiller on @nflnetwork says Bills just called him and thanked him for his service. The Spiller era is over.
— Mike Rodak (@mikerodak) March 4, 2015
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Spiller just couldn’t stay involved enough to match his electrifying Pro Bowl season in 2012—1,703 rushing/receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Current New York Jets offensive coordinator Chan Gailey coached Buffalo that year.
The 2010 top-10 pick out of Clemson is so closely tied to Gailey in free agency that Spiller has addressed the rumors himself, according to Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News.
"There is that familiarity between me and him in that offense," he said. "So that would be a perfect match. Who knows what can happen, but I’d be foolish not to have those guys on my list. I had my best years in the league with Chan. So it’d be dumb not to give it serious thought."
The Arizona Cardinals, Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers are also in line for Spiller’s skills, according to ESPN’s Josina Anderson via Twitter:
"Spiller is eligible to become a UFA. I'm told potential suitors considering interest include the Cards, Jets, Dolphins & 49ers at this time.
— Josina Anderson (@JosinaAnderson) March 4, 2015
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Spiller expressed interest in trading places with McCoy in Philadelphia on NFL Total Access (h/t NFL.com’s Dan Hanzus): "I'm pretty sure that Chip [Kelly] has my agent's phone number, so I'm pretty sure we might have to make a call over there. I've never been in that type of system before, but I don't think I'd have any problem adjusting to it."
Spiller is entering the twilight of his career as an NFL running back, turning 28 in August. His fantasy prospects run the spectrum from an every-week stud to a championship-drive stopper.
Take him as a borderline RB1 depending on where he lands and hope he realizes that tremendous upside.
Robert Woods, WR
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Woods improved on a solid rookie debut with an improved performance in 2014, finishing 47th among wide receivers in fantasy scoring.
His third NFL season could be the breakout fantasy owners are waiting for now that the Bills boast a true attention-grabbing weapon in the backfield, according to NFL Media’s Bucky Brooks:
"With McCoy in the backfield, however, defensive play-callers will be more reluctant to play with ‘light’ boxes. The fear of surrendering a big run will force more defensive coordinators to employ seven- and eight-man fronts against one-back and two-back formations, leaving Woods and Watkins isolated against single coverage.
This will allow Roman to selectively take deep shots down the field against one-on-one matchups, resulting in more explosive plays and pass-interference penalties on the outside. In addition, the presence of McCoy in the backfield will create big-play opportunities on play-action passes following ball fakes at the point of attack.
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Peg the 2013 second-rounder out of Southern Cal as a solid flex contributor with WR2 potential in 2015.
Sammy Watkins, WR
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Watkins proved to be worth every ounce of draft leverage the Bills gave up to take the Clemson star at No. 4 in 2014.
Rex Ryan is ecstatic he no longer needs to fret over how to stop Watkins on defense, according to Ross Jones of Fox Sports.com:
"Well, I can tell you trying to defend Sammy Watkins, any time we tried to play man coverage on him, I got burned. He had a 90-yard catch. I think he had a 70-yard touchdown run. So I learned my lesson. The next week I doubled him every single snap. I mean every single snap. And so it's not about his production.
Sammy is a one in every 10-year player that comes down the road. You mentioned we don't have a first-round pick. That's OK with me. We have Sammy Watkins. I think it's not just about his production but what he does to open things up for the entire offense. That's the mark of a really great player. Clearly Sammy is one of those players.
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Watkins finished 27th in fantasy scoring among wide receivers in a rookie campaign that started off hotter than it ended. Apparently, Ryan wasn’t the only coach to figure out how to stop the 6’1”, 211-pound deep threat.
The McCoy trade should benefit Watkins tremendously in 2015, according to Bucky Gleason of The Buffalo News:
"Ryan will be committed to using McCoy as much as possible, mostly out of necessity. The Bills have major questions at quarterback, but they have two good young receivers in Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods.
Buffalo's commitment to the running game should help the passing game. Defenses know they will need to stop McCoy, which will buy more time for EJ Manuel, Matt Cassel (or someone else?) in the pocket. That alone will help Watkins and Woods and, thus, the Bills' offense. If they can strike the right balance, the offense will be better by simply having McCoy on the field.
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Count on Watkins to build on his 65-catch, 982-yard and six-touchdown debut as a bona fide top-20 fantasy wide receiver in 2015.
LeSean McCoy, RB
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Reaction to the stunning McCoy trade is crashing in from every corner of the Web, according to Jonathan Tannenwald of Philly.com.
The most important reaction is McCoy’s own, of course.
The 26-year-old All-Pro—he will turn 27 in July—was initially frustrated with the move, an unnamed source told ESPN’s Josina Anderson via TwitLonger:
"Honestly, he's frustrated...It's alright. It's the league. I told him that. I guess he just never experienced that, but he was like 'why me.'
He’s a Pennsylvania kid. He’s never played football outside of Pennsylvania—high school, college, pro. So of course he's not happy. Sounds like it’s pretty final to me unless LeSean is refusing to go to Buffalo.
It'll be interesting to see how this process plays itself out because he's an interesting individual. In your mind, when you think of Buffalo you think of cold and losing games. It’s not like it’s the Philadelphia market where you’re always on TV and you’re playing for like the division title or that type of thing…It was unexpected. I'll tell you that much.
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However, another unnamed source told The Inquirer’s Jeff McLane that McCoy was “ready to move on.”
Jared Dubin of CBSSports.com graded the trade as a B-plus/A-minus on the Bills side for a franchise that is struggling to find a starting quarterback.
The last element of McCoy’s transition to Buffalo—besides waiting for the trade to become official on the opening day of the league year, March 10—is his contract. The six-year veteran is currently owed up to $28.65 million over the next three seasons, but only $1 million of that is guaranteed.
McCoy’s representation is seeking a more player-friendly deal from the Bills, according to CBSSports.com’s Jason La Canfora via Twitter.
"McCoy and his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, will make noise about wanting an extension and/ or declining to report. Bills bracing for that already
— Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) March 4, 2015"
McCoy is still a no-brainer RB1 in Buffalo for fantasy purposes, even though Fred Jackson might eat into his production much the same way Darren Sproles did last season in Philadelphia.
Count on McCoy to finish in or around the top 10 in fantasy scoring among running backs in 2015, just like 2014.
NFL statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted. Fantasy stats courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted. Contract and salary cap information provided by Over the Cap unless otherwise noted. Hat tip to Rotoworld for tweets and quotes unless otherwise noted.
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