Pre-Free Agency Salary-Cap Update for New England Patriots
As any NFL analyst worth his or her salt will tell you, the salary cap is a fluid commodity. Between accounting tricks and restructurings, any team can kick the can down the road and play for the present day.
Of course, the New England Patriots have never really adopted that all-in mentality during the Bill Belichick era, adhering to a value-based approach that minimizes the fat on their payroll. The Pats will likely make some unpopular compromises this offseason; it's a bit reminiscent of the post-2012 offseason, when New England was tight against the cap and needed to re-sign Wes Welker, Sebastian Vollmer and Aqib Talib.
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This year, we can substitute in Darrelle Revis, Devin McCourty and Shane Vereen and arrive at a similar point. We'll delve into the Pats' toughest free-agent choices shortly, but first, let's open up the books and clarify their current finances, via Spotrac.com:
| Quarterback | $14.8M | 15 |
| Running Back | $3.2M | 20 |
| Wide Receiver | $17.2M | 8 |
| Tight End | $10.2M | 4 |
| Offensive Line | $21.3M | 16 |
| Defensive Line | $11.7M | 28 |
| Linebacker | $18.9M | 10 |
| Secondary | $42.1M | 1 |
| Special Teams | $5.1M | N/A |
| $152.9M | $-4.7M |
That bottom-line number looks bleak, but the Patriots actually won't have any issues creating enough cap room this season. Truthfully, New England could keep all its marquee in-house free agents if it so desired. However, in attempting to strike a balance between short-term strength and long-term viability, the complexion of the 2015 Patriots will hinge on these key issues.
First Dominoes
The free-agent fates of Darrelle Revis and Devin McCourty are unquestionably the most important events of New England’s offseason, as their destinations will help shape the early complexion of the Super Bowl 50 race.
With Vince Wilfork also available after the Pats declined his $4 million roster bonus, three of New England’s most valuable defenders will likely receive higher financial offers from other teams on the open market. Thus, it’s not a stretch to suggest that this represents the first obstacle in its championship defense.
New England's current cap situation is phony mostly because of Darrelle Revis' obscene $25 million cap hit. Once the Patriots decline his option on March 9, $20 million will go away, though there will still be a $5 million dead-money hit from Revis' initial signing bonus.
Revis has demanded a $16 million average in each of his past two contracts, though that number has been more symbolic than anything because of how each contract was structured. He's gained a reputation as a financially driven mercenary, though some observers have suggested that the Patriots could re-sign Revis for as low as $12 million per year.
For now, the Revis sweepstakes is predictably boiling down to the Patriots and their old rivals down the Northeast Corridor, the New York Jets. With Rex Ryan's Buffalo Bills filling up their salary-cap space via trades, Gang Green looks like the most logical suitor for Revis' services outside of Foxborough. The eminently reputable Adam Schefter even suggested that the AFC East rivals would be the finalists for Revis:
If that situation manifests, it would represent the ultimate money-or-winning conundrum. Revis could return to the bright Broadway lights and earn a contract that would make him the highest-paid corner in the league, or he can swallow his ego and play out his prime on a perennial contender.
McCourty is not nearly as black-and-white a situation. The dearth of quality available safeties in free agency and the draft, coupled with the growing popularity of single-high, man-free lurk pass defense concepts, have conspired to make McCourty one of the most desired players on the market.
He may not necessarily be Earl Thomas, but it would hardly be surprising to see McCourty receive a contract offer that rivals Thomas' record-setting $10 million per-year average when factoring in the market conditions.
There hasn't been as much noise about McCourty's future, apart from his consternation in an interview he gave after failing to receive the franchise tag. If the Pats weren't willing to absorb the relatively affordable $9.6 million franchise tag, it's clear that New England is likely to get outbid by cap-flush teams in need of secondary help.
CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora has already reported interest from the Philadelphia Eagles, while the likes of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts also figure to sniff around.
The most worrisome report may have come from NJ Advance Media's Dan Duggan, who relayed that McCourty explicitly suggested a willingness to return to New Jersey, where he grew up and played collegiately at Rutgers, and join either the Jets or Giants:
"I would be lying if I said that it wouldn't be cool being back home. But I also know being back home comes with some new stresses and different things that way with family and friends being so close. For me right now, everything is open. I don't want to turn something down. I'm willing to leave everything open and see how it works out.
"
Again, this is all speculation, so it's likely that the Patriots still have the inside edge. Still, it's no longer an infallible lock that the Patriots will retain their All-Pro safety, a shift from the post-Super Bowl optimism that should rightfully concern Pats fans.
For now, let's suggest that Revis and McCourty will earn something resembling market value. We'll give Revis a four-year, $56 million deal with a $12 million signing bonus, a similar contract to Richard Sherman's deal, and McCourty a six-year, $54 million deal with a $10 million bonus, a contract that would resemble the one Jairus Byrd signed last offseason.
If the cap hits are divided evenly over the length of the contracts, here is how the Pats' cap situations might look under various scenarios (note that Revis will have a $5 million dead-money hit no matter what, assuming the Pats do cut him before March 10):
| Both Stay ($32.6M) | -$29M |
| Revis Stays ($22M) | -$18.4M |
| McCourty Stays ($15.6M) | -$0.3M |
| Both Leave ($5M) | $13.3M |
Obviously, this is a back-of-the-envelope exercise. The Pats can and would manipulate the numbers to give themselves more breathing space, while a roster option for Revis could be a possibility, especially as he enters his mid-30s.
The guaranteed money in those proposed deals might add up to more than the Patriots would want to pay, so look for them to divvy it up rather than deliver it all in a true guaranteed signing bonus.
The bottom line is that the Patriots do indeed have the numbers to keep their secondary cornerstones, even at relatively hefty price tags. It'll just require some nifty cap gymnastics with a few other key contributors.
Veterans in Jeopardy
With Vince Wilfork's $4 million option declined, the Pats shaved an important $8 million off their books for 2015. That price tag doesn't accurately measure Wilfork's toughness and locker room leadership, of course, and NFL Media's Ian Rapoport has suggested that the Pats could keep their longtime defensive anchor if a market doesn't materialize:
Still, given that Wilfork played three-quarters of the snaps last year despite suffering a debilitating torn Achilles the year before, it seems likely that some team will ante up and end No. 75's tenure in Foxborough. Wilfork won't be the last cap casualty this offseason, though. At the moment, these are the biggest cap savings the Patriots could reap from cutting a player (with the pre-June 1 designation):
| Darrelle Revis | $25M | $5M | $20M |
| Nate Solder | $7.4M | $0 | $7.4M |
| Brandon Browner | $5.5M | $0 | $5.5M |
| Jerod Mayo | $10.3M | $6M | $4.3 |
| Sebastian Vollmer | $7M | $4.2M | $2.8M |
| Danny Amendola | $5.7M | $3.6M | $2.1M |
The trio of Jerod Mayo, Brandon Browner and Danny Amendola stands out as players who might need to take cuts or hit the road.
Mayo is the surest bet not to play at his $10.3 million cap hit, which currently stands as the third-highest on the team. Don't expect any imminent action—as ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss pointed out, Mayo's contract contains a $4.5 million guarantee for injury, so it's not as though the Patriots would be saving money by cutting him now while he recovers from a torn patellar tendon.
Browner is arguably the more intriguing name here. His mauling man coverage was an ideal fit in New England's coverage system last year, but his Pro Bowl reputation probably outweighed his actual play.
According to Pro Football Focus' grading metrics, Browner's minus-5.0 overall grade ranked 79th among cornerbacks last season. With an astounding 15 penalties in just nine regular-season games, Browner drew the second-most flags in the league despite playing roughly 300-400 fewer defensive snaps than the other most-penalized corners.
Browner's status will ultimately boil down to Bill Belichick's confidence in Logan Ryan and Alfonzo Dennard. Both regressed significantly after promising signs in 2013, a disturbing trend that has taken root among corners the Pats have drafted in recent seasons.
Belichick unfortunately doesn't get the benefit of observing their offseason improvement in camp, as Browner's option is due on March 9 and could raise his cap number based on playing-time incentives:
After Belichick spent years rebuilding a tattered secondary into a unit that served as the focal point of a champion, it's almost cruel that it could be gone in a single offseason. Still, if the Pats decline Browner's option, three-quarters of the 2014 starting secondary could be on the open market.
Danny Amendola is a more curious case. As late as Week 15, it would have been unfathomable for Amendola to remain on the roster. And yet, by contributing 38 catches for 337 yards and four touchdowns over the last five games, Amendola shined brightest on the biggest stages and allowed the Pats to shift to a three-receiver offensive philosophy.
Still, Amendola's cap figure clearly remains out of whack with his on-field value, as he's currently sandwiched between Emmanuel Sanders and Golden Tate in terms of 2015 cap hits among wide receivers. A more reasonable comparison might be what the Dallas Cowboys handed to Cole Beasley, though that parallel might even be generous when comparing their 2014 performances:
| Danny Amendola | 27/200/1 | 42.1 | 79.9 | 0.67 |
| Cole Beasley | 37/420/4 | 41.8 | 91.2 | 1.36 |
If New England lets all three walk, it could save up to $11.8 million in cap space, though Mayo's injury situation makes a restructure more likely. Browner would thus represent the biggest chunk of potential savings, though the Pats would be hard-pressed to replace him given the thin cornerback crop in both free agency and the draft.
That could be a necessary sacrifice depending on what the Pats do with Revis and McCourty, however. The bet here is that the Patriots decline Browner's option and cut Amendola to provide themselves maximum flexibility as they try to retain their two secondary stars, with the understanding that both could return on reduced deals.
Bottom Line
The Patriots can minimize the 2015 damage from Revis and/or McCourty, while further cap cuts should help them carve out eight figures worth of cap space. Much of that will go toward retaining the draft class and providing in-season flexibility, though, especially when considering that the Pats have pulled a move at the trade deadline in three of the past four seasons.
Moreover, the quartet of Nate Solder, Jamie Collins, Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower are all due for extensions within the next two offseasons. Not all of them will break the bank, but given that they have exhibited signs of being among the most promising young players at their respective positions, none will come cheap either.
That's the overriding consideration to keep in mind, as Belichick has always kept one eye on the future when building his roster.
Yes, the Pats can keep Revis and McCourty to retain their championship core and adopt somewhat of an "all-in" mentality for 2015. But regression would be inevitable from that point on, at least defensively, putting an immense amount of pressure on the front office to draft well and find cheap value in free agency.
Based on Belichick's past, he's likely to let at least one marquee name walk this offseason for the sake of retaining one of New England's homegrown talents down the road.
Perhaps he changes his tune as Tom Brady approaches his age 38 season, but Belichick has always taken the approach of having a "B+" chance of contention every year, rather than an "A" level for one season and a "C" level for the subsequent three or four years.
Ultimately, though, this offseason could shape the complexion of the Brady era's twilight years. That's not to suggest that the Patriots must do everything they can to retain their in-house core. Rather, New England is currently facing some fairly difficult either-or choices.
How Belichick answers those questions will play a significant role in determining whether he and Brady can set history with their fifth Lombardi Trophy at some point.
*Unless otherwise cited, all salary information via Spotrac.com.
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