How the Boston Red Sox Stack Up vs. AL East Counterparts
OK, New England, let's put down those alcoholic beverages and swap them for cups of coffee. The first official spring training workout for Boston Red Sox position players was Wednesday, which makes it a good time to conclude the month-long celebration of the Patriots' Super Bowl title. Baseball season is upon us.
I don't blame the upper regions of the Northeast for going hard after a thrilling win that made the overblown Deflategate saga bearable. In fact, a drunk jacket is probably pretty useful these days given the bitter cold and endless snow that's pounded the area.
All I'm saying is you have a full year to reign as champs and a compelling Sox camp that warrants your attention. Don't get burned out in the first 30 days. You can still apply to party with the legend during the "Summer of Gronk," so it's just goodbye for now.
If you're checking into baseball season for the first time, we went over potential breakout candidates last week. That was preceded by pieces identifying under-the-radar players and hyped prospects to keep an eye on. Give those a skim, educate yourself on recently acquired Yoan Moncada and you'll practically be caught up.
We continue now by looking at how John Farrell's club stacks up against its divisional counterparts. Is the Red Sox's loaded lineup even the best offense in the AL East? Is Boston's starting rotation really that bad in comparison to its division foes? Those categories and more coming up after the click.
Lineup
1 of 4
1. Red Sox
This is probably a lot closer than most Red Sox fans realize. The heart of the Blue Jays' order touts three 30-home run candidates: Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson—with 40 dingers being a real possibility for the first two. The lineup is also comprised of Jose Reyes and Russell Martin, all but solidifying that Toronto will have a top-five offense for the second straight season.
However, while Boston's Nos. 3-5 hitters may not be as imposing as what the Jays possess, they get the nod for the top spot due to the length of their lineup. The Red Sox only project to have one negative hitter in 2015 (Christian Vazquez), and their bench is flush with quality options for when injuries inevitably strike.
Anchored by a former MVP (Dustin Pedroia) and MLB's next member of the 500 HR club (David Ortiz), the additions of Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez should pay big dividends. Sandoval is a bit overrated in his offensive impact (three-year average of .280 BA with 14 HR and 26 doubles since 2012), but the Red Sox's third base production was near the bottom of baseball last season.
That makes him a stark upgrade even if he doesn't meet the lofty expectations that come with moving a big-time postseason hitter with a great nickname into Fenway Park.
Ramirez needs to stave off the injury bug, but when healthy he's shown he can rake (162-game average of .285 BA, 25 HR, 39 doubles over the last three seasons). Boston faithful hope the less strenuous left field involves fewer burst movements and diving to keep the three-time All-Star's body fresh.
The headlines may read "Yoan Moncada: Star in the Making" these days, but fans shouldn't forget the Red Sox already have one of those.
The buzz that Mookie Betts could be expendable now because of the Moncada acquisition is laughable. Cole Hamels telling USA Today Sports' Bob Nightengale he wants to be dealt further strips Philadelphia of leverage. Ben Cherington isn't going to make Blake Swihart untouchable and then up his offer to include a more desirable player with Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. on the ropes.
During his 52 MLB games last year, Betts was the franchise's best player. His production crescendoed each month he played in the majors, culminating with a .317 average, 10 extra-base hits and three steals during September.
The announcement Shane Victorino will be the starting right fielder when healthy left many assuming Mookie will be relegated to the bench. But no center field proclamation has been made, and I'd put my money on Betts over Rusney Castillo.
People are quick to forget John Farrell labeled Betts the "strongest" candidate to bat leadoff when he spoke to MassLive.com's Jen McCaffrey back in December. The price to retain Castillo's services doesn't guarantee him a starting spot right away, particularly after a two-year hiatus from the sport before signing with the Red Sox in August. It's conceivable the organization eases him along barring a spring explosion.
All that and we haven't mentioned Mike Napoli or Baseball America's No. 1 prospect entering last season, Xander Bogaerts. Boston will be a threat from one to eight and should consistently wear down opposing pitchers.
The Orioles had an elite offense last season that ranked eighth in baseball in runs scored. However, they sport a new look after Nelson Cruz departed in free agency and Nick Markakis was traded to the Atlanta Braves.
Their 2015 fortunes rest heavily on three things: Chris Davis recapturing his 2013 form, Manny Machado taking the next step and Matt Wieters' health. You can bank on Adam Jones' production, but that trio is the collective question mark.
If this were 2011 the Yankees lineup would rank atop this division. Unfortunately for fans in the Big Apple, Father Time hasn't been kind to Carlos Beltran, Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann since then. Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner are nice pieces, but as a whole this is a below-average batting order that will struggle to get on base. And that's before you factor in the destructive impact the Alex Rodriguez saga may have.
Tampa Bay won't be winning many high-scoring affairs this season. That's not to say the Rays won't be pesky, but starting the likes of Kevin Kiermaier and Nick Franklin isn't the recipe for offensive success.
They're constructed with a focus on pitching, and their strong rotation and quality bullpen will lead them to wins despite the lack of a hitting threat outside of Evan Longoria. Best-case scenario is Desmond Jennings finally blossoms into being a 20-20, and Steven Souza is 80 percent of the player he was in Triple-A (.350 average, 18 HR, 75 RBI).
Starting Rotation
2 of 4
1. Rays
2. Orioles
3. Red Sox
4. Blue Jays
5. Yankees
As we said when we departed from the last slide, the Tampa Bay Rays' pitching is going to be good this year. The rotation is headlined by Alex Cobb (2.82 ERA, 1.14 WHIP in 309.2 innings pitched the last two seasons), a man who missed out on back-to-back All-Star appearances because he was more dominant in the second halves of 2013 and 2014 (2.04 ERA over 150 innings).
Drew Smyly took off like a rocket once he was dealt to St. Petersburg, compiling a 1.70 ERA and a microscopic 0.76 WHIP in 47.2 innings late last season. New manager Kevin Cash hopes the upward trend continues so he can slot the lefty between Cobb and Chris Archer (3.28 ERA over 323.1 innings sine 2013).
The Rays' final key starter is a one-time prospect of some renown: Jake Odorizzi. He was Baseball America's No. 67 farm system piece entering last season (ahead of Blake Swihart and Mookie Betts), and the 24-year-old was respectable in his first full year in the majors. He finished with a 4.13 ERA while posting a strong strikeout rate of 9.32 Ks per nine innings.
Fangraphs' fielding independent pitching (FIP) and expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) metrics show that Odorizzi was a little unlucky a year ago. He posted a 3.75 FIP and 3.90 xFIP in his 168 innings, making a statistical leap to a mid-3.50 ERA in 2015 very reasonable. That's not bad for a fourth starter.
Many don't trust the names in the Orioles' starting rotation, and the advanced stats say the reluctancy to do so is warranted. Chris Tillman, the 2013 All-Star and ace of Buck Showalter's staff, has been a workhorse the past two seasons, amassing 413.2 innings. And though his 3.52 ERA over that time would suggest he's indeed a high-end starter, the 4.22 FIP indicates he's actually been quite fortunate.
Wei-Yin Chen had a breakout campaign last year (3.53 ERA) thanks in large part to his ability to curb his issue with walks. He surrendered just 1.7 free passes per nine innings in 2014, down from the 2.6 number he posted over his first two seasons.
Like Chen, the O's No. 3 starter, Bud Norris, also had a career-low ERA in 2014 (3.65). However, his 4.22 FIP reveals Lady Luck shined on him as she did with Tillman and his Taiwanese teammate.
Though Baltimore's top three can't be relied upon to meet the height of the team's recent success again, they should still be a quality trio this season. There's also a pair of MLB-ready prospects in Maryland with the potential to emerge.
Dylan Bundy was Baseball America's 15th-ranked prospect before 2014 while Kevin Gausman came in at No. 20. At age 22 and a freshly turned 24 respectively, Bundy and Gausman figure to be rotation staples for the next five years. It's a good thing too because that four-year, $50 million deal for Ubaldo Jimenez sure looks horrific after Year 1.
What the Red Sox hope to do is replicate the success of the unheralded 2014 O's staff. It's not out of the realm of possibility that Wade Miley and Joe Kelly pitch a little over their heads while well-known wild cards Justin Masterson and Clay Buchholz find their All-Star grooves again. Yet at the same time it's hard to count on it either.
If a Cole Hamels deal isn't brokered in the near future as I expect, a move for a starter will surely occur before the trade deadline as long as Boston's in the hunt. If the Red Sox roll with what they currently have, the idea is a great offense can carry the team and make up for what the starting staff lacks.
It seems to be a flawed path to prosperity in the age of the pitcher, but it's the Red Sox's best chance with this roster. That's why I see them more as playoff contenders than World Series threats. It's dubious that in this day and age that strategy can lead to a prolonged playoff run.
The Blue Jays seem to be the sexy pick to win the division. They're constructed similarly to the Red Sox, relying on offense, but their lack of rotational upside makes them far less appealing.
40-year-old R.A. Dickey keeps ticking and providing quality innings. He's pitched 1,057 frames since 2010, with a 3.37 ERA to show for it. However, the knuckleballer's 3.92 FIP over those five seasons isn't nearly as impressive. Can the Blue Jays' perceived ace continue to defy age, or is the 3.97 ERA and 4.45 FIP over the past two seasons proof he's over the hill now?
You'll notice I said perceived ace in regards to Dickey, and that's because Marcus Stroman is the true top arm in Canada. He had a 3.65 ERA in his first 130.2 big league innings last season with an even more trim 2.84 FIP. Get used to that name, as he'll be a mere 24 years old come Opening Day.
Going back to soft-throwing elderly starters, Mark Buehrle (35) rounds out the Jays' top three. He's surpassed 200 innings in an astonishing 14 straight seasons, the kind of durability and reliability that are unheard of. He was an All-Star for the fifth time in 2014, and despite his concerning 1.356 WHIP, he finished with the third-best ERA of his career (3.39) and lowest since 2005.
Where Toronto really gets docked is the fact that it needs Drew Hutchison and Daniel Norris to produce on the back end of its rotation. I have a hard time envisioning that combination and the other options are as unappealing as those names currently slotted fourth and fifth on its staff.
New York would be two spots higher if you guaranteed me 175-plus innings apiece from Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda. Tanaka was electric last season and says he's fully recovered from a slightly torn ligament in his pitching elbow, even claiming he feels better than he did last spring, per ESPN.com's Andrew Marchand.
But UCL damage in an elbow is serious. If Tanaka hits any bump in his first season back from the injury playing for a team that isn't expected to contend, you better believe the Yankees will shut him down quickly to protect their long-term investment.
A pitcher's impact is obviously restricted if he can't shoulder a big workload. It's likely Tanaka is limited to 150 innings or so, meaning a below-average replacement will be a damaging force for the 40-50 innings he pitches in the Japanese star's stead.
Durability is Pineda's issue as well. How can you rely on a man who has only mustered 76.1 MLB innings since 2011?
When it comes to former AL CY Young Award Winner CC Sabathia, the question isn't so much the weight (he reported at 305 pounds) as it is if there is anything left in his once-dynamite left arm. The six-time All-Star has a 4.87 ERA over 257 innings the last two seasons. The 4.22 FIP since 2013 signals misfortune, but a 1.389 WHIP tends to lead to unfavorable results.
Bullpen
3 of 4
1. Yankees
2. Rays
3. Red Sox
4. Orioles
5. Blue Jays
The Yankees not only have the most talented starter of any team, but they have the best bullpen arm in the AL East as well. Dellin Betances will turn 27 just before Opening Day and is coming off a season where he had a 1.40 ERA, a minuscule 0.78 WHIP and an astonishing 135 strikeouts in 90 innings of relief.
He'll take over closer duties for David Robertson, and he showed the ability to be deployed in multi-inning situations. If Joe Girardi is able to end key games by stretching Betances and Andrew Miller to a combined three innings, that's a terrifying proposition for opponents.
Speaking of Miller, Red Sox fans should be familiar with his skills. John Farrell and his staff recrafted the onetime starter and turned him into one of the most devastating bullpen weapons in baseball. Miller didn't reach Betances' strikeout total, but the 103 Ks he compiled were in a mere 62.1 innings.
That's an other-worldly 14.9 strikeouts per nine innings (SO9). His 1.51 FIP was even better than his dazzling 2.02 ERA last season. He'll be a nasty, left-handed fireballing complement to Betances late in contests.
The dynamic duo is the backbone of the Yankees' pen, but the likes of David Carpenter (2.63 ERA in 126.2 relief innings since 2013) and Adam Warren (3.18 ERA in 155.2 innings the last two seasons) serve as added reliable options who cement their top-slight status.
The Rays have a dominant, hard-throwing lefty of their own in closer Jake McGee. He racked up 90 strikeouts in 2014 while producing a 1.89 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP (0.90 to be exact). Like the Yankees closer, McGee is paired with a strikeout maven who throws from the other side in Brad Boxberger. The 26-year-old fanned 104 batters in 64.2 innings last season, coming just short of Miller's ridiculous SO9 mark (14.5).
In addition to its top talent, Tampa Bay has a pair of former closers at its disposal, Ernesto Frieri and Grant Balfour. Frieri was a train wreck last year (7.34 ERA, 1.46 WHIP), but he had extended success in four seasons prior to that (2.79 ERA, 12.3 SO9 while converting 60 of 67 save chances).
Meanwhile, Balfour is just a season removed from an All-Star campaign and also was highly effective in the four years preceding his 2014 disaster (2.47 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 254.2 innings from 2010-2013).
These are the reclamation projects the Rays seem to get the most out of every year. When paired with the superior eighth- and ninth-inning men as well as dependable Kevin Jepsen (2.63 ERA last season), the Rays could easily wind up with the AL East's supreme bullpen.
A lot of the success of Red Sox bullpen is contingent on the health of closer Koji Uehara and recently signed Alexi Ogando. It seems safe to pencil in Junichi Tazawa and Anthony Varvaro for a combined 115 rock-solid innings, but the unknown surrounding where Uehara and Ogando stand physically after arm troubles in recent years makes the potential effectiveness of Boston's bullpen wide-ranging.
Edward Mujica remains in Beantown despite Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reporting the Red Sox's "willingness to move" him at the end of January. The former St. Louis Cardinals closer has a nice ceiling when things are clicking but can also be sporadic.
Eduardo Rodriguez is another name to watch. As I hypothesized last week, Boston could choose the up-and-coming lefty for a key bullpen role given the impression he's made early this spring.
Ranking Boston third here is based on the presumption that Uehara is the nearly unhittable pitcher he was from 2013 through the first half of last season. If his performance wanes as it did post-All-Star break 2014 (4.35 ERA), then the Orioles' formidable bullpen will be superior.
Zach Britton is the man in charge of shutting down games for the O's, a task he thrived at a season ago. In his first year in the bullpen, Britton's 1.65 ERA was 11th-best among MLB pitchers (minimum 50 innings pitched). The loss of Andrew Miller hurts. But Darren O'Day has been stellar for three seasons now (2.05 ERA, 0.94 WHIP over 197.2 innings), and Tommy Hunter has developed into a nice late-inning reliever.
Rounding out the list is the Blue Jays, who will rely on a lot of unproven guys in new roles. Brett Cecil opens camp as the closer for the first time in his career. Though his 2.70 ERA from 2014 looks nice, the unsightly 1.37 WHIP triggers concern. Aaron Loup is the best reliever on paper (career 2.77 ERA) and is the biggest threat to Cecil for shutdown duties.
.png?w=256)
Bench
4 of 4
1. Red Sox
2. Yankees
3. Rays
4. Orioles
5. Blue Jays
As alluded to previously, the Red Sox's bench may be their greatest strength. Allen Craig and Daniel Nava are starters for most MLB teams. Brock Holt is a super utility man whose position flexibility is an underrated advantage. Jackie Bradley Jr. probably won't even make the team out of camp, but his elite defensive skills can be useful late in games if called upon after the first Red Sox player hits the disabled list.
The depth John Farrell has at his disposal is a big reason why the computer projections are so high on Boston. The Red Sox seem built to overcome the injuries that debilitate teams every year. They don't have typical replacement-level quality backups that trigger drop-offs in production when forced into action. Mookie Betts or Rusney Castillo being a fourth outfielder is the sort of talent issue every MLB team envies.
Joe Girardi's starting lineup is lackluster, but he has a solid amount of bench options who can vie for playing time. Adding Garrett Jones from the Miami Marlins was a particularly noteworthy move. He should rotate between first base, outfield and designated hitter to get regular at-bats despite not being slated as a full-time starter at any one position.
Chris Young is a former 20 HR, 20 SB guy who excelled in his brief Yankees stint (.354 on-base percentage, 3 HR) following a dreadful 88-game stretch with the New York Mets in 2014. Young and Jones provide the pinstripes with options should Alex Rodriguez struggle or the organization wise up and cut the sport's all-time cheat.
The Rays earn the third ranking pretty much solely because of David DeJesus' presence. If Steven Souza isn't up to major league pitching, DeJesus is a proven veteran Tampa Bay can plug in to left field and provide serviceable to slightly above-average play.
The Orioles' top reserve player is an unproven quantity but possesses the kind of upside that could vault Baltimore's bench to second in the division. Soon-to-be 24-year-old Christian Walker is the O's third-ranked prospect, according to Baseball America, and is slated to be the first man off the pine.
The first baseman slugged 25 HR and 26 doubles across Double-A and Triple-A last season, batting .288 in the process. If Alejandro De Aza can't rebound or Chris Davis is unable to escape his funk, then Steve Pearce can shift positions to free up first base for Walker.
Toronto really can't afford an injury. Once they deal Dioner Navarro, as general manager Alex Anthopoulos told the media the Blue Jays would try to do following the catcher's trade request, their depth is going to be nearly nonexistent. Toronto will shift untrustworthy Justin Smoak into a more prominent role, and the bench will be left with the likes of Danny Valencia, Steve Tolleson and Kevin Pillar. Oy vey.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com or FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. All prospect rankings via Baseball America unless otherwise noted/linked.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
