5 Ways the Golden State Warriors Can Be Conquered
The Golden State Warriors started the second half with a 110-99 win on Feb. 20 against their kryptonite, the San Antonio Spurs. The team has been executing almost flawlessly by leading the league in a variety of statistical categories.
The Warriors are not unbeatable, as shown by the follow-up 104-98 loss to the Indiana Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on Feb. 22 without the services of star Stephen Curry. They have weaknesses, even though there are only 10 losses on their record.
As great as the Splash Brothers’ shooting is most nights, Golden State does occasionally have to come back and rescue wins. The Dubs have exemplified certain flaws that other teams will no doubt study and try to exploit come playoff time.
Let’s examine the five biggest problems that the Warriors need to fix or mask before the second season starts. The ball movement has been effective, as they are primarily a jump-shooting team, but that could come back to bite them in the end.
Low-Post Presence
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Andrew Bogut is the main man when it comes to the low-post presence of the Warriors. But, he is more relied upon as the facilitator at the top of the arc than setting up by the basket, which could be a problem.
Bogut steers the offense when he is in the game, as he makes slick passes and sets up Curry or Klay Thompson with his tunnel-creating screens. He then moves to the hoop to put himself in a post position or starts looking for a rebound.
The other helpers at this position are Marreese Speights and Festus Ezeli, although Ezeli has played very limited minutes in a backup role. Speights is more accustomed to drawing defenders out and hitting mid-range jumpers than forcing the action at the rim.
As of late, Speights has seen his minutes shrink, because head coach Steve Kerr is giving more time to David Lee, and the Speights/Lee combination has too many defensive holes.
The team is third in the Association with 45.7 points in the paint per game, but its way of getting to the key is primarily with the motion offense and transition. If that area is clogged, the Warriors will be hard-pressed to score down low.
In the losses versus the Utah Jazz and Memphis Grizzlies, the Warriors were stymied by their opponents' big men and forced to execute outside with jumpers. If the shooting is cold, the team could be in a lot of trouble.
The Grizzlies will be a very difficult playoff matchup, since they can slow down the pace of Golden State’s open offense, defend tightly and expose the Warriors in the post with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol.
Memphis is the best in the Association in limiting opponents' scoring by giving up only 95.7 points per game.
The Warriors brass decided to not make any moves before the trade deadline, so Bogut, Speights and Ezeli will need to stay healthy and shine come playoff time.
Healthy Bodies
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The Warriors and their injury problems have mostly been linked to Andrew Bogut, until Golden State had to deal with the loss of Stephen Curry against the Indiana Pacers. Klay Thompson did his best job trying to carry the load with 39 points, but the rest of the team couldn’t pull out the victory.
Curry's right foot injury is minor, but it brings up a couple of questions: What if one of the key players gets injured? Does the team have enough to withstand such an injury?
Since Curry is the lifeblood of the team, the possible MVP of the NBA and a game-changer, his loss would cripple the Warriors and most definitely prohibit the championship dreams.
As explained by the San Jose Mercury News' Adam Lauridsen, Curry draws defenders, opens the floor and is such a presence that it is difficult to just slip Shaun Livingston into his spot and hope for the same results to happen.
Per NBA.com, when comparing offensive and defensive efficiency with Curry, Golden State has a net rating of plus-17.2 with him on and only a plus-0.4 with him off.
The loss of Bogut would be a similar situation. The big man is an elite defender, facilitates the offense from the top of the key and can score when needed. A major difference between Bogut and his substitutes is the screen-setting ability to open up space.
He brings the physicality that the team misses without him on the floor. The Warriors are 9-5 without him in the lineup.
Per Basketball-Reference.com, Bogut is racking up a defensive rating of 96, which is a career high. He is one of the ultimate rim protectors, but he also succeeds by positioning his teammates and helping out as a last resort.
Per NBA.com’s player tracking data, he is also holding opponents to a diminutive 40.3 percent shooting at the rim.
The team can survive by replacing the two biggest pillars, but it is very doubtful that Golden State can advance to the Finals without its best players.
Shooting Woes
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TNT analyst Charles Barkley keeps harping on the fact the Warriors won’t win the title because they rely too much on the jumper.
"I have said the exact same thing for 16 years here," Barkley said on Monday, per Diamond Leung of the San Jose Mercury News. "I don’t like jump-shooting teams. I don’t think you can win the championship beating good teams shooting jumpers."
The team has succeeded with their jump-shot selection so far this season with the help of the floor spacing and the passing involved in Coach Kerr’s offense.
Per Marcus Thompson of the Bay Area News Group, Curry likes the Warriors’ approach.
"It might not be a conventional way of getting it done," Curry said. "We get like seven, eight post-ups a game and work around that. Fast-break points and dribble penetration is huge for us. We have a lot of good spacing and are able to open up those lanes to attack."
However, the percentages are not always in the Warriors’ favor. In the 113-111 overtime loss to the Chicago Bulls on Jan. 27, the team had an 0-of-13 stretch from beyond the arc.
This doesn’t happen all of the time, but it is worrisome for the Warriors when they can’t create, the offense is slowed down and players force shots.
When the postseason comes, the Warriors need to expect a slower, more condensed game. Coach Kerr will need to come up with a game plan that Curry, Klay Thompson and company can execute and still get quality looks.
The motion offense still needs to be worked into that strategy with more screens and ways to draw out defenders. By forcing opponents to leave their space, it creates opportunities even in a limited area.
Bogut is the go-to screener, but the rest of the team will also need to get involved to make it work.
On top of that, two of the bigger weapons are having problems at the free-throw line. Andre Iguodala and Bogut are the first choices when opponents need to send someone to the line.
Bogut has shot better this season than any other with Golden State, but he still is troubled from the arm injury he suffered in 2010. Iguodala is currently shooting 55.7 percent this season from the charity stripe.
Since those percentages won’t likely improve by the end of the season, Coach Kerr will have to use a strategy that keeps those two players away from being consistently fouled.
If the Warriors can create, space the floor and get consistent open looks, they are deadly. If they have to force shots, opponents can take advantage and win games.
Turnovers
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Turnovers can win or lose ballgames, and sloppy play prohibits extended runs by the Warriors. The team is doing a better job at controlling the ball than at the start of the season.
Their open style of play creates a lot of opportunities, but telegraphed passes or forced balls limit the success of that style.
The problem is not just Curry (only 3.1 turnovers compared to 3.8 last season), who predominantly handles the rock. Klay Thompson is guilty of having a career-high 2.2 turnovers per game.
Golden State currently hands the ball over 14.4 times per game, tied for 24th place in the league. Against weaker teams, this is not as glaring of a problem, but when the Warriors have to face opponents like the Memphis Grizzlies, San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder, those gimmies could be game-changing.
Curry was proactive about his turnover problem by setting up a program with his mother. Each game he turns the ball over more than three times, he has to pay his mother $100 per turnover, and anything less is subtracted from the total.
The remainder of the players need to play to the style of the team but play with urgency. A highlight-reel play is less important than making the correct pass that ends in a scoring result.
Opposing teams just need to fill the lanes more effectively and force more momentum-changers.
The Half-Court Game
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The postseason is the Warriors' main goal, and when that time comes, the game is supposed to slow down. The high-flying motion offense will be filtered into a less-recognizable version.
This is the place where the physical teams traditionally have their way with the jump-shooting teams.
The Oklahoma City Thunder could end up as the potential eighth seed in the Western Conference, setting up a brutal first-round matchup—if the Warriors hold on to the best record. The Thunder just added former Utah Jazz center Enes Kanter to their stable on Feb. 19.
The trio of Kanter, Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams makes the Thunder a difficult matchup in the interior game, and Kanter can stretch the floor by stepping back for the three-point shot.
If the Warriors have to face Oklahoma City or any other physical team, they will have to fight their way through the big bodies and try to create as much space as possible. Within the limited area, Bogut and Draymond Green will need to capitalize on their opportunities when they arise.
The two need to be careful with their physicality, since foul trouble could force either player to the bench.
The second-team frontcourt is where the Warriors could be vulnerable. Lee and Speights provide offense, but the two don’t seamlessly work together on defense, as the team is exposed in the middle.
Festus Ezeli is a physical player, but he has not had the chance to get the necessary playing time to develop.
The Warriors are successful with points in the paint because of the opportunities provided by the ball movement and spacing created by the offense. However, it all starts on defense, where they get stops and push the ball up the court.
If physical teams can prevent the Dubs from the open style, Golden State could be in for a world of hurt. Teams like the Memphis Grizzlies are extremely difficult, because they can pound you and play great defense.
Getting consistent high-percentage shots in a limited space might be too difficult in a seven-game series.
Coach Kerr will continue to have to make adjustments with the help of assistant coaches Alvin Gentry and Ron Adams to make sure they have the best game plan possible.
Per Marcus Thompson of the Bay Area News Group, Curry sees the bigger picture:
"Where we get in trouble, where people think that’s going to hurt us is if the offense gets stagnant and we try to bail ourselves out by forcing up long-distance shots instead of getting it into the paint. I think we’re getting a lot better at knowing the difference between a good 3 and a bad 3, and if we take a lot of good 3s, we’ll be in good shape.
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Until they can consistently beat a physical team with great defense, Barkley will continue to degrade the Warriors.
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