The 1 Reason Every NBA Title Contender Has a Chance to Win It All
Rosters of NBA title contenders are wholly unique, but each has been constructed with a singular goal in mind: to achieve immortality of historic proportions.
On their respective journeys, franchises have uncovered segments of winning formulas that can produce championship-caliber results.
Whether it's elite floor spacing, the refinement of a superstar's skill set or a battle-tested collection of veterans who aren't unnerved by in-season hiccups, each of the league's elite clubs has one distinct reason to believe it can win the title.
Qualification for prospective title contenders was generally restricted to teams that entered Monday night with winning percentages over .600. However, special exemptions were made for the star-studded Oklahoma City Thunder and Washington Wizards, each of whom have flashed title-contending chops at points throughout the season. As a result, five Eastern Conference clubs and eight Western Conference squads made the final cutoff.
Atlanta Hawks: Ball Movement Breeding Balance
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There's pretty ball movement and then there's what the Atlanta Hawks do.
Embracing an egalitarian approach that's helped head coach Mike Budenholzer's squad produce five double-figure scorers, the Hawks have shared the rock more effectively than every other title contender.
"Budenholzer has groomed a team full of players who are more than happy to pass up a good shot for themselves in favor of a great shot for their teammates," Sports Illustrated's Will Laws wrote. "The Hawks spread the floor with capable shooters (and passers) at every position, forcing opposing defenders to run around the perimeter without an answer to the Hawks' fluid offense."
According to NBA.com, Atlanta's assist ratio of 67.6 tops the league charts. That distribution has also helped the Eastern Conference front-runners produce five players knocking down at least one three per game.
The gold standard for selfless play in the half court, Atlanta's free-flowing style will continue to give opponents fits as extra passes and open looks receive preferential treatment over isolation opportunities.
Chicago Bulls: Derrick Rose's Aggression
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Derrick Rose is engineered to burn opponents with his lightning-quick first step and brilliant mid-air contortions around the rim.
Why, then, has the Chicago Bulls point guard dialed back his aggression off the dribble?
According to Basketball-Reference.com, Rose's average shot distance has hit a career-high 14 feet this season, up a full foot from his last complete regular season. As a result, a career-low 26.2 percent of his shots are coming inside of three feet while a career-high 32 percent are being launched from beyond the arc.
That's not a distribution that plays to his most basic physical strengths.
The same data reveals that Rose is finding nylon on 56 percent of his close-range attempts compared to 29.1 percent on threes.
And here's some fun food for thought: This season, Rose is averaging a career-high 5.4 three-point attempts. According to Basketball-Reference, Chicago is 20-6 when he jacks five or fewer. But when that number creeps up past his season average, the Bulls are 8-11.
Considering Rose is scoring more points per possession in isolation situations than James Harden, LeBron James, Damian Lillard and Russell Westbrook while shooting 52.6 percent from the field, according to Synergy Sports (via NBA.com), Chicago needs him to ramp up the aggression to remain in the title conversation.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Rapid Cohesion
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In a matter of weeks, the Cleveland Cavaliers have evolved into an offensive juggernaut.
Since LeBron James returned to the lineup on Jan. 13, Cleveland not only owns the league's best offense, but it's posted the top net rating, according to NBA.com. Better than the Golden State Warriors, better than the Memphis Grizzlies and better than the Atlanta Hawks.
With their core together for just over a month, that should be a major wake-up call for title contenders from both conferences.
"I think it's great," J.R. Smith told reporters following Sunday's 101-83 win over the New York Knicks, according to The Associated Press (via ESPN.com). "Our mindsets have changed, as opposed to trying to get a win to expecting to win every game."
Smith's absolutely right.
The Cavaliers should expect to win every game, namely because players have quickly bought into their designated roles and flourished within them.
Take Kyrie Irving, for example. According to Synergy Sports play-type data (via NBA.com), Irving ranks in the 95th percentile in isolation scoring, averaging 1.11 points per possession.
Then there's Smith, who's drilling 36.4 percent of his threes in wine and gold.
Timofey Mozgov has also operated as a rim protector of the highest caliber since arriving in Cleveland. Fear The Sword's Trevor Magnotti explains:
"Per SportVU data, Mozgov has defended 8.4 shots per game at the rim in his 19 games as a Cavalier. On those shots, opponents are shooting 45.6 percent, which is a pretty good number. Now, that's well below some truly elite NBA rim protectors, like Andrew Bogut(41 percent) and Roy Hibbert (42.2 percent), but considering the volume of shots Mozgov faces, it puts him in that elite conversation.
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Factor in Kevin Love's complementary inside-outside scoring and Iman Shumpert's defensive stylings on the perimeter, and Cleveland has stacked the deck brilliantly with some shiny new hardware in mind.
Dallas Mavericks: Floor Spacing
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The Dallas Mavericks own the league's third-most efficient offense, and their ability to space the floor is a major reason why.
Consistently using Tyson Chandler as the primary roll man in a spread-pick-and-roll alignment, Dallas has torched teams with a barrage of outside shots, complemented by high-percentage finishes from its bigs at the rim.
Chandler, for instance, is scoring a massive 1.37 points per possession as a roll man, per Synergy Sports data provided to NBA.com, a total that ranks in the 94th percentile.
And now, the Mavericks have a new weapon in Amar'e Stoudemire, who can add another wrinkle to their offense.
"We do a lot of picking and popping with our guys now," Dirk Nowitzki said, according to The Dallas Morning News' Brad Townsend. "But when we spread the floor, the roll is usually there. Tyson’s great at it. Brandan was great at it. Amar’e’s made a living off it for a long, long time in this league."
With Chandler Parsons, Monta Ellis, Nowitzki and Charlie Villanueva, Dallas also ranks third in catch-and-shoot threes converted per game, according to SportVU player-tracking data.
As for the mid-range shooting Nowitzki alluded to, the Mavericks rank No. 5 overall in conversion rate on shots between 15 and 19 feet.
Allowing Monta Ellis and Rajon Rondo to jointly initiate the offense with slick handles in the pick-and-roll, open shooters will never be hard for Dallas to find.
Golden State Warriors: Defensive Versatility
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Forget Stephen Curry's and Klay Thompson's mind-boggling shooting displays for a moment.
While the offensive fireworks make Golden State the league's most aesthetically pleasing night-to-night watch, its defense fuels a championship-caliber flame.
Owners of the league's stingiest defense by a solid point-and-a-half over the Milwaukee Bucks, the Warriors have been able to scurry around every inch of the floor and wreak havoc thanks to personnel groupings that are long and strong enough to switch positions 1 through 4.
ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss used a December showdown against the Dallas Mavericks to prove that point:
"That versatility also allowed the Warriors to guard Dirk Nowitzki with what felt like half their roster. Nowitzki went against a point guard (Shaun Livingston), a shooting guard (Klay Thompson), a small forward (Harrison Barnes) and a power forward (Green). Guarding the German is a total team effort, but the roster’s interchangeability made that effort easier. Players flew at Dirk from all angles, denying Dallas the easy passing lanes that Nowitzki’s presence usually allows.
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"We understand that (defense) is going to help us win games in the playoffs," Curry said, according to the Associated Press (via The New York Times). "When that time comes, we can rely on it to get us through, hopefully, a lot of playoff series. It has been a focus and something we've seen the results of. There's no other reinforcement we need to understand how important it is."
Houston Rockets: James Harden's Scoring Prowess
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James Harden is a one-man wrecking crew, and his status as such has single-handedly lifted the Houston Rockets into title-contending air.
The NBA's leading scorer at 27.2 points per game, Harden has redefined efficient practices in a variety of situations as Houston's offensive focal point.
Here are some highlights, courtesy of Synergy Sports play type data (via NBA.com):
- Harden ranks No. 1 overall in isolation frequency at 25.7 percent.
- He's scoring 1.06 points per possession on such plays, which ranks in the 89th percentile.
- Comparatively, LeBron James ranks No. 2 overall in frequency but sits in the 79th percentile.
- Harden also ranks in the 89th percentile in ball-handler scoring at 0.94 points per possession.
- He draws fouls on 17.5 percent of those attempts, tops among all players with at least 150 possessions.
Without Harden on the floor, Houston scores 92 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com. That would rank right above the Philadelphia 76ers' league-worst offensive rating and as one of the worst in NBA history.
But with The Beard taking care of business, Houston's good for 107 points per 100 possessions, which keeps the Rockets in respected company.
In short, the MVP hype is justified.
Los Angeles Clippers: The Power of the Starting Five
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Despite head coach Doc Rivers' best efforts to bolster his bench in the face of financial restraints, the Los Angeles Clippers' second unit remains the most underwhelming among Western Conference title contenders.
But that's quite alright, because his starting five has compensated for a lack of reserve production all season long.
According to NBA.com, the Clippers' preferred starting five of Chris Paul, J.J. Redick, Matt Barnes, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan has topped the league charts with an offensive rating of 117.2 in 880 minutes together.
Overall, that five-man unit ranks No. 2 overall in net rating (plus-16.1 points per 100 possessions) behind only the Golden State Warriors' starting lineup.
Although reigning Sixth Man of the Year award winner Jamal Crawford can provide relief in spurts, he's unable to mask the bench's 26th-ranked field-goal percentage single-handedly. That's what happens when the team's supplementary support is coming from Austin Rivers, Hedo Turkoglu, Glen Davis and Spencer Hawes.
Ultimately, it will require a supreme effort from Paul, Griffin and Jordan to compensate for the second unit's shortcomings. But if this season has taught us anything, it's that this unit is one of the select few capable of producing well beyond its means when the lights shine brightest.
Memphis Grizzlies: Frontcourt Dominance
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Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph use just under 50 percent of the Memphis Grizzlies' possessions each game, according to Basketball-Reference.com, so it's no surprise that Dave Joerger's squad will go as far as its two stars can carry it.
When Memphis' two imposing grizzly bears share the floor, it posts a net rating of plus-7.1 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com. Most noteworthy is that the Grizzlies offense posts an offensive rating of 108 during their combined minutes, which would be good for No. 5 overall behind the Toronto Raptors on the season.
"Randolph’s shooting percentage from within 10 feet has improved from last season, and he’s taking more of those shots," Sports Illustrated's Rohan Nadkarni wrote. "His improvement, in addition to the high-level of halfcourt execution from a group of players so used to playing with one another, simply makes the offense that much better."
And Gasol's doing much more than scoring. He's also dishing out 3.7 assists per game. That makes him one of two players—along with DeMarcus Cousins—averaging better than 18 points, eight rebounds and three dimes this season, per Basketball-Reference.
With Gasol launching feathery jump shots and whipping wicked passes from the elbows while Randolph bludgeons opponents on the blocks, Memphis has the most frightening frontcourt in the game.
Oklahoma City Thunder: The Lethal One-Two Punch
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Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have only shared the floor 27 times this year, but when they have, the results have been glorious.
According to NBA.com, the dynamic duo has generated a net rating of plus-9.3 points per 100 possessions during their 713 minutes together. And for all of the talk that Westbrook and Durant haven't developed offensive synergy, a few numbers suggest otherwise.
This season, Westbrook has assisted Durant 72 times. That's good for 55 percent of the assisted buckets Durant has scored, according to NBA.com. On the flip side, Durant as dimed Westbrook 24 times, nearly doubling his second-closest teammate.
And if you thought Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph's share of the workload in Memphis was impressive, Durant and Westbrook are using over 67 percent of Oklahoma City's possessions, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
The only team with multiple 25-point-per-game scorers, Oklahoma City will be a dreaded first-round matchup and dark-horse title contender if it can ward off injury-related demons and maintain a grip on the Western Conference's No. 8 seed.
Portland Trail Blazers: They Finally Have a Bench
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It's been a long time coming, but the Portland Trail Blazers finally have a bench squadron worthy of their star-studded starting lineup.
After ranking dead last in bench scoring the past two seasons, Portland's second unit has the makings of a group that can provide some relief for Damian Lillard, LaMarcus Aldridge and Co. at long last.
To date, Blazers reserves are playing the league's fourth-fewest minutes on average, according to HoopsStats.com. However, that number may tick up in coming weeks after the team splurged to acquire shooting guard Arron Afflalo from the Denver Nuggets at the trade deadline.
Considering Portland's bench already ranks fourth overall in three-point shooting, that's a major boon for Terry Stotts' club.
"The addition of Afflalo, a 6-foot-5 shooting guard known for his tenacious defense and lethal long-range shooting, not only strengthened the Blazers' bench for the stretch run, but also offered a no-doubt-about-it signal that the franchise believes it is primed for a deep playoff push," The Oregonian's Joe Freeman wrote.
But this is about more than Afflalo.
At all five positions, Portland finally boasts legitimate second and third options. From Steve Blake and C.J. McCollum to Allen Crabbe, Meyers Leonard, Alonzo Gee, Chris Kaman and Dorell Wright, this is the deepest team Portland has rolled out since it won 54 games during the 2008-09 campaign.
Sunday night's 98-92 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies reinforced that sentiment. Although the final result wasn't ideal, Blake, Afflalo, Wright and Kaman combined to score 36 points and grab 21 rebounds.
San Antonio Spurs: Experience
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The San Antonio Spurs haven't won fewer than 50 regular-season games in a non-lockout season since 1996-97, but this year may represent an exception.
According to ESPN.com's playoff odds, the Spurs are right on the cusp of cracking 50 triumphs if they maintain their current pace. But even if they don't, the defending champions can't be taken lightly.
San Antonio's defense still ranks among the league's elite, and the franchise's track record suggests no postseason foe will be daunting enough for five-time champions Tim Duncan and Gregg Popovich.
"You just deal with whatever you have and move on," Popovich said in January, according to The Washington Post's Michael Lee. “I don’t think there are too many coaches who aren’t concerned about something."
After erasing 2013 heartbreak and responding with a convincing 2014 finals outing, the Spurs are battle-tested to the point that regular-season shakiness shouldn't faze them so long as they can lock up a playoff spot come mid-April.
The key to establishing offensive consistency will revolve around Kawhi Leonard working into a more comfortable rhythm. Although the Spurs are 7.9 points better per 100 possessions with him on the floor, per NBA.com, he's shooting worse than 39 percent from the field this month.
If his jump shot can start falling in tandem with San Antonio's defensive excellence, the postseason picture could get disrupted in a hurry.
Toronto Raptors: Chemistry
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Statistically, the Toronto Raptors aren't turning heads.
While they are proprietors of the Eastern Conference's most efficient offense, categorical numbers don't reflect that ranking particularly well. And according to NBA.com's John Schuhmann, their offense has regressed the most of any team since Jan. 1.
To boil it down, Toronto shoots the three at a league-average clip, ranks 22nd in assists and knocks down just over 45 percent of its total field-goal attempts. Getting to the line at an elite rate helps push the efficiency rating up, but the most valuable quality Toronto's cultivated over the past 18 months is tremendous chemistry.
That's the main reason general manager Masai Ujiri chose to lay low at the trade deadline.
"A lot of things were put in front of us that maybe immediately, you think might make you slightly better now, but it might take away from younger guys continuing to grow," Ujiri said, according to The Globe and Mail's Rachel Brady. “So yes, it’s a vote of confidence for our players and coach—keep plugging away."
Forward Patrick Patterson discussed the importance of continuity prior to the deadline, according to TSN's Josh Lewenberg:
"We basically still have the same pieces as last year and we're playing the way we're playing. We all have faith in each and every single one of these individuals on the basketball floor so I feel like we do have the pieces. We have the veteran-ship, we have the leadership, we have the role players, we have the all-stars, we have everything we need to be an elite team. So it's just all about the will, all about the want, all about doing it. We have everything we need to be successful.
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Toronto's roster isn't replete with eye-popping talent by any means. But what the Raptors lack in superficial flash, they make up for with substantive cohesion.
Washington Wizards: Dynamic Backcourt Tandem
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So long as they're without Bradley Beal, the Washington Wizards will be stuck in neutral.
Since Beal was diagnosed with another stress reaction in his right leg, the Wizards have failed to score 100 points, dropped three straight games and cracked the 90-point threshold just once.
Point guard John Wall remains an elite scorer and distributor, but he can't carry the load alone. He needs his partner in crime—the wingman who has helped push Washington's offense into a steady and productive realm.
With Wall and Beal on the floor, Washington's offensive rating has topped out at 106.5. According to NBA.com, that's tops among all Wizards pairings that have logged at least 1,000 minutes this season.
"John and Bradley were the two guys that I was the most intrigued about and their growth and where they wanted to be, so that made me want to play here," Paul Pierce said, according to the Los Angeles Times' Broderick Turner. "I just saw the potential in the team."
The upside Pierce speaks of is still a major component of the Wizards' future. Despite a brief downswing, it's important to keep perspective.
Wall's just 24 years old, and his jump shot is only now rounding into form. He's also the only player averaging better than 15 points and 10 dimes this season.
Beal, on the other hand, is 21 years old and has already developed one of the league's most potent outside strokes. According to Basketball-Reference.com, Beal and Klay Thompson are the only two qualified players averaging better than 15 points on at least 43 percent shooting from three.
If Beal can return in a timely fashion and help lift Washington's offense out of its rut, the potential exists for a late run to be made. It may just have to be flawless, though.
All statistics current through games completed Feb. 22 and courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless noted otherwise.
