The Definitive Case for Atlanta Hawks' Mike Budenholzer as Coach of the Year
At the two-thirds mark of the NBA regular season, the Atlanta Hawks' Mike Budenholzer should be the leading candidate for Coach of the Year.
Although Steve Kerr of the Golden State Warriors and Jason Kidd of the Milwaukee Bucks have led their teams to similarly impressive seasons, Coach Bud has been the top coach so far, taking a team with middling talent to a 44-12 record and the Eastern Conference's No. 1 seed.
We'll look at Budenholzer's case for Coach of the Year both in terms of statistics and the eye test. But first, let's examine some historical trends for award winners.
Who Wins the NBA Coach of the Year?
The honor rarely goes to the NBA's best coach.
Consensus says the San Antonio Spurs' Gregg Popovich has been the league's top man walking the sidelines for at least a decade, but he's only won Coach of the Year three times in his career. Sam Mitchell took home the hardware with the Toronto Raptors in 2007 but was fired less than two seasons later and hasn't been a head coach in the NBA since.
So essentially, voters only look at what a coach has done with his team in the present year. There are two main narratives they seem to look for when selecting the winner of the award:
Narrative 1. Coach leads team expected to be average or good to a great season
Narrative 2. Coach makes a bad team on paper surprisingly good
In the past 10 years, eight victors of the award have followed Narrative 1 while the other two have followed Narrative 2.
| Year | Coach | Team | Record | Verdict |
| 2013-14 | Gregg Popovich | Spurs | 62-20 | Good to great (1) |
| 2012-13 | George Karl | Nuggets | 57-25 | Good to great (1) |
| 2011-12 | Gregg Popovich | Spurs | 50-16 | Good to great (1) |
| 2010-11 | Tom Thibodeau | Bulls | 62-20 | Average to great (1) |
| 2009-10 | Scott Brooks | Thunder | 50-32 | Bad to good (2) |
| 2008-09 | Mike Brown | Cavaliers | 66-16 | Good to great (1) |
| 2007-08 | Byron Scott | Hornets | 56-26 | Average to great (1) |
| 2006-07 | Sam Mitchell | Raptors | 47-35 | Bad to good (2) |
| 2005-06 | Avery Johnson | Mavericks | 60-22 | Good to great (1) |
| 2004-05 | Mike D'Antoni | Suns | 62-20 | Average to great (1) |
The recent history of the award shows voters clearly favor Narrative 1.
So, apologies to Kidd and his record-setting Bucks,, but past trends tell us this is a two-man race between Budenholzer and Kerr. Their teams have the league's two best records, and both much better marks than most expected from them.
Numbers Support Budenholzer's Candidacy
Warning: The following section contains analytics and may cause disciples of Charles Barkley to break out in bouts of anger, name-calling and even a rash. Proceed with caution.
First of all, let's get something out of the way: Kerr's 43-10 Golden State Warriors have been the best team in the NBA this season.
The Warriors have the league's top record by half a game in the rough-and-tumble Western Conference. They've been winning with ease, too—Golden State has the NBA's best net rating (+11.11 points per 100 possessions) by more than four points per 100 possessions.
But Budenholzer's Hawks, who have the league's second-best winning percentage, have been nearly as impressive with much less talent. The former San Antonio Spurs assistant of 19 years is squeezing every ounce of production from his Atlanta roster.
Below is a chart comparing the player efficiency rating and win shares per 48 minutes for each Hawks rotation member and Warriors rotation member between last season and this season. To be considered a rotation member, a player has to average at least 15 minutes per game.
| 2013-14 PER | 2014-15 PER | Percent Increase | 2013-14 WS/48 | 2014-15 WS/48 | Percent Increase | |
| Average Warrior | 15.60 | 17.46 | 11.89 | 0.122 | 0.169 | 38.27 |
| Average Hawk | 14.39 | 16.11 | 11.97 | 0.089 | 0.135 | 51.50 |
Not surprisingly, both Warriors and Hawks players have played better in 2014-15 than they did in 2013-14. However, Atlanta's rotation members have taken a bigger step forward in terms of percentage.
Speaking of improvement, the Hawks' winning percentage has taken a more substantial leap this year than the Warriors' has.
Atlanta is on pace to win 64 games, approximately a 68 percent increase from last season's 38 victories. Meanwhile, Golden State is projected to reach 67 triumphs, just 31 percent more than its 51 wins from 2013-14.
Considering the Hawks' more significant player and team development, Coach Bud has a solid advantage over Kerr in the statistical realm.
Budenholzer's Narrative is More Compelling
But not everything can be decided by statistics (is that better, Chuck?).
Remember Narrative 1 and Narrative 2? Both Kerr and Budenholzer are Coach of the Year candidates because of Narrative 1, a scenario in which a team expected to be average or good performs at an elite level.
Last season's Warriors, led by head coach Mark Jackson, were a good team—the sixth seed in a tough Western Conference and a narrow first-round exit despite missing starting center Andrew Bogut. But with mostly the same team this year, Golden State has been hell for opponents to deal with.
You have to give a lot of that credit to Kerr, who, in just his first year as an NBA head coach, has crafted the perfect offensive scheme for his talented players. The below video illustrates the Warriors' ability to take advantage of its players' scoring abilities.
Kerr's gotten them to play the league's most efficient defense, as well.
Although the Warriors have been amazing, their success isn't that unbelievable. Stephen Curry is arguably the league's best point guard, Klay Thompson is one of the top two-way shooting guards in the NBA, Draymond Green and Bogut are two of the league's best defenders and two former All-Stars in Andre Iguodala and David Lee come off the bench.
Kerr's narrative is a compelling one, but even with a slight bonus for being a rookie coach, Budenholzer's is better.
The Hawks were a mediocre team in Coach Bud's first season on the sidelines last year. Atlanta was a respectable 16-13 before Al Horford's season-ending pectoral injury, but just 22-31 afterwards. Like the Warriors, the Hawks' postseason run finished after just seven games. But eighth-seeded Atlanta was playing a sputtering Indiana Pacers team instead of the Clippers.
Naturally, many expected the Hawks, who made only minor moves in the offseason, to remain at the bottom of the East's playoff bracket in 2014-15.
But this season, Budenholzer has found massive success with his Spurs-esque motion offense and a scrambling, trapping defense. You can see more of the Hawks' offense in the below video.
The interesting thing about Atlanta's success? No Hawks player is at the offensive level of a Curry or a Thompson while no Hawks are at the defensive level of a Green or a Bogut.
It's cliche, but Atlanta has found a way to win without a superstar.
Horford, Jeff Teague and Paul Millsap are stars, but not superstars. Kyle Korver is probably the NBA's best role player. Quality contributors litter the rest of the roster, but the Hawks' list of players still screams "decent."
Kerr coming in and leading a gifted Warriors team to lofty heights as a rookie coach is a narrative that would easily take home hardware most seasons.
But not this year.
If Budenholzer keeps leading his Hawks to wins nearly every time out, he is the most deserving candidate for the 2014-15 NBA Coach of the Year award.
Note: All statistics are from Basketball-Reference.com and updated through Feb. 22 unless otherwise indicated.
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