Checklist for Portland Trail Blazers During Season's Home Stretch
The Portland Trail Blazers got the stretch run off on the wrong foot but look to have things momentarily repaired. Two straight losses to the Utah Jazz on February 20 and to the Memphis Grizzlies on February 22 had this team going 4-6 over its last 10, yet a blowout 111-95 win over the San Antonio Spurs has calmed Rip City’s nerves.
As we head into this period leading up to the postseason, it’s imperative a number of things remain on the Blazers’ minds. The offense and defense have fallen off from what we saw early on, which can probably be expected when stalwarts Nicolas Batum and Robin Lopez miss time because of injury.
This point of the season is crucial to get everything back to the way it was. The Western Conference is dark and full of terrors (for all you Game of Thrones fans), and any spell of poor play will send Portland tumbling down the standings.
Hence, the Blazers must focus on a few aspects to avoid such a fallout before they hit the playoffs.
Damian Lillard Must Dial It in from Outside
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Damian Lillard has long been recognized as a deadly marksman from beyond the arc, but that hasn’t been the case over the past few months.
The All-Star guard is shooting a career-worst 34.2 percent from three-point range, a sharp drop from his 39.4 percent last season. It’s hard to pinpoint what is exactly causing the struggle, as no major injuries have limited his play.
Lillard has had opportunities to score from outside, with 32.4 and 15.4 percent of his shots being classified as “open” and “wide open," respectively, per NBA.com. An “open” shot is measured as the nearest defender being within four-to-six feet, while a “wide open” shot has the nearest defender being six or more feet away.
But even with those chances, Lillard has failed to convert compared to last season:
| Open 3PFG% | Wide Open 3PFG% | |
| 2013-14 | 34.9 | 46.7 |
| 2014-15 | 32.8 | 35.8 |
As the team’s second-leading scorer, it’s imperative that Lillard gets his shot going during this stretch run.
He has still been ultra-effective on two-point field goals, shooting 63.6 percent during February and 50.4 percent for the season. But missing that long-range threat hinders Portland’s ability to run the offense to its full potential.
Let's Make That a 3-Way Call
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Nicolas Batum’s three-point woes are much worse than his teammate Lillard, mostly due to a range of wrist and knee injuries over the course of the season. But after a long rest to get healthy during the All-Star festivities, Batum should have plenty of opportunities to improve going forward.
The swingman has shot just 28.2 percent from beyond the arc, steadily improving from 22.0 during November to hit 32.4 percent in February. What’s most remarkable, however, is that he is converting on 59.3 percent of his field goals and 46.2 percent of his three-point shots since the All-Star break.
It’s clear the nine days between games had a positive impact on his body, and this three-game stretch is encouraging.
But there have been times this season where Batum looks to be turning it around, only to fall short and struggle once more. A 6-of-8 outing from deep against the Phoenix Suns on January 21 was a bright spot, though the 3-of-14 conversion over four games to close out the month was not.
He's a key part of Portland's offense, working as a shooter and often the primary ball-handler for his club. Having that shot falling forces opposing defenses to respect his ability and at times sag off his teammates.
And now that he looks to be his healthiest all season, the Frenchman should be able to turn his season around. The coming weeks and months will be a telling period.
Prove Their Mettle on the Road
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The Trail Blazers have a tentative grasp on the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference, sitting mere percentage points ahead of the Dallas Mavericks and the Los Angeles Clippers, who are at No. 5 and No. 6, respectively.
That’s both the beauty and the beast of this conference—that any win or loss can be tremendously vital down the stretch. Portland isn’t in too much danger of slipping out of a high seed, but better play on the road can ensure such a drop-off doesn’t happen.
This squad is just 13-13 away from the Moda Center this season, which would give it the third-worst mark among West playoff teams, as only the San Antonio Spurs (14-16) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (13-17) have lesser records.
Portland will play its fair share of away games during the postseason; therefore, it’s imperative to find a consistent way to win. The Blazers have kept visiting opponents to just 93.3 points, ranking No. 1 in terms of home-court defense, per NBA.com, which jumps to 101.6 opponent points when on the road, ranking No. 19.
Granted, it’s much less complicated to defend and play inspired basketball with cheers behind you as opposed to boos. But if Portland wishes to truly contend and have a deep playoff run, playing consistent defense on the road is essential.
Integrate the New Additions and Find a Rotation That Works
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The Trail Blazers swung a few young bench contributors to the Denver Nuggets at the trade deadline in exchange for oft-travelled wing Alonzo Gee and veteran guard Arron Afflalo. The latter player offers much more during the stretch run, but Portland must do its best to make the new guys feel welcome.
While Gee will only contribute in a limited role, he’s still a veteran who can defend well. Conversely, all eyes are on Afflalo to be the sixth-man scorer this team so desperately needs.
And by the sounds of things, he’s ready to do just that, courtesy of The Players’ Tribune:
"I’m looking forward to growing and building with this team. I’m looking forward to experiencing a deeper playoff run together. As excited as I am about this opportunity, I want to make this clear: I’m here to help this team reach its goal of winning a title. It’s been 38 years since the Trail Blazers last won an NBA championship. It isn’t just enough to be a contender — it’s time for us to show the media, fans and most importantly, ourselves, why we’re a championship-caliber team.
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Afflalo should be a perfect fit off the bench for this team, adding strong defense and offense from mid-range, the perimeter and even in the post. The team ran him alongside Chris Kaman and Steve Blake early on against the San Antonio Spurs on February 25, which is a solid trio of journeyman veterans with different but complementary skill sets.
He also played the 3 as Portland went with a small-ball lineup, though he stands 6’5”. He’s definitely undersized in that game plan, but it can still work well given the system this team employs. Using him this way gives the Blazers a deadly offensive lineup, spreading the floor with Damian Lillard, Wesley Matthews, Afflalo, Nicolas Batum and LaMarcus Aldridge.
It’ll be interesting to see where the team implements Gee as the season goes on, but it’s clear Afflalo has taken the reins of the sixth-man role. He tied Kaman for most bench minutes (24) against the Memphis Grizzlies on February 22 and had the most (25) against the Spurs on February 25. Even as the starting guys head to the bench, Afflalo can come in and hold his own as an offensive option.
And for a bench that ranks No. 24 in efficiency, per Hoops Stats, that’s fantastic news.
Welcome to Rip City, boys.
Keep the Defense Under Control
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We’ve just seen how the Blazers need to improve their defense on the road, but that can be said as a whole, regardless of location. Portland started out the season as a surprise defensive team, prompting Bleacher Report’s Stephen Babb to praise its efforts on November 7:
"Entering Thursday's contest, the Trail Blazers ranked sixth in the league, allowing just 97.6 points per 100 possessions, according to Hollinger Stats. It's still early, but that's a vast improvement over last season's defensive efficiency—when the Trail Blazers ranked 16th and gave up 104.7 points per 100 possessions.
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To this point, that has jumped to 99.8 per 100 possessions. It’s still a mark that ranks No. 4 in the league, but it's clear that teams have been slowly chipping away. Below are some of the Blazers’ defensive numbers through December, January and February, courtesy of NBA.com:
It’s no coincidence that opposing teams’ field-goal percentages shot up during January, as defensive centerpiece Robin Lopez missed more than 20 games. But now that he’s back, ensuring that suffocating resistance returns to form should be atop Portland’s checklist, particularly on the perimeter.
The defense will be what keeps this team chugging through the postseason. The offense will always be there, shooting struggles or not, as the personnel are talented enough.
By playing tough D and shutting down attempts from beyond the arc, the Blazers can always stay with it or get back into games if their shots aren’t falling. But the same can’t be said when they’re buried by long-range heaves.
And against their Western Conference adversaries that thrive on three-point shots, like the Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks, it could spell trouble down the stretch.
But not if Portland is able to correct things going forward.
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