Predicting the 2016 NBA All-Star Teams
Break time is over.
You had your chance to watch the 2015 NBA All-Star Game and let all its wonder sink in. Now it's time to look ahead to the 2016 All-Star wingding.
No, you cannot yet vote on the participants for next year's superstar soiree, which will take place in Toronto on Feb. 14, 2016. We're not that ahead of the curve. But we do have an early look at what the rosters for next year's All-Star shindig could look like. (You're welcome.)
These predictions are based on a number of things. We're going to assume the full health of all players involved, because we're not a group of Pessimistic Patricks and Debbie Downers. Age, however, will play a role in determining which recurrent All-Star performers get the shaft (sorry, Dwyane Wade).
We're also going to assume the players in question will not leave incumbent teams if they're free agents. If for some reason you know LaMarcus Aldridge plans on signing with the Philadelphia 76ers, please just humor us for a few minutes. Our crystal balls must be on the fritz.
This season's performance will count for something. So, too, will reputations. If a player didn't make it this season but has made it in the past, he receives the benefit of the doubt.
Common sense will play a major part in this production as well. There's an element of politics and inevitability in every All-Star affair. We know certain players are locks to be voted in as starters, while others have no business being in this discussion.
Do we have an understanding? Wonderful. Fire up the time machine; 2016 here we come.
Western Conference Backcourt Reserves
1 of 14
Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
Chris Paul has been an All-Star staple for the past eight years, and that's not going to change for 2016. Only recently has his place atop the point guard ladder even come under siege.
Approaching 30, Paul is still in his prime, popular and potent enough to where he'll contend for another starting nod. He's piloting a top-five offense for the fourth consecutive season, and this will mark the eighth time he's averaged at least 15.0 points, 9.0 assists and 1.5 steals per game.
Just one other player has done the same: Magic Johnson. Next season, assuming health, Paul will flirt with those benchmarks for a ninth time—something no one else has ever done.
Fittingly enough, those continued on-court exploits will also be enough to nab him All-Star selection No. 9, once again reaffirming what we already know: Paul is good at this whole basketball thing.
James Harden, Houston Rockets
Look, none of us likes this.
James Harden is the best darn-tootin' shooting guard in the game. He should be starting in 2016. I know it, you know it, and even Kobe Bryant knows it. But Bryant's brand knows no bounds. He was voted a starter this year, the most inefficient of his career. If not for another injury, Harden would be riding pine.
Be thankful he's here at all. Other guards are going to suffer, receiving little or no consideration because a soon-to-be 37-year-old Bryant is the global prom king. Harden is above being impacted, insofar as it relates to his eligibility.
At 25, he's only just entering his prime. He leads the league in scoring, is a contact-creating connoisseur, is a favorite for this year's MVP award and has many, many (many) All-Star selections ahead of him—next year included.
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers (Wild-Card Reserve)
Here's a list of every player to average at least 19 points, five assists and three rebounds per game in each of the last three seasons:
- LeBron James
- Stephen Curry
- James Harden
- Russell Westbrook
- Kyrie Irving
- Damian Lillard
Yes, Lillard will be in the All-Star Game next year. No, it won't be as an injury replacement. He hasn't yet turned 25, so the best is still to come. And knowing the lead-in to his best includes two All-Star appearances, this is a no-brainer.
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder (Wild-Card Reserve)
Consider this your hourly reminder that the Western Conference could field an All-Star team comprising only point guards. Yet in this field of many, Westbrook still stands out.
Picking against him is something you just don't do. (Bonus no-no: Never leave him hanging.) He's the force of nature that all other forces of nature report to.
If the season ended today, Westbrook would be the fourth ever guard to register a player efficiency rating north of 28. His company would be Michael Jordan, Wade and Paul.
To believe he won't make his fifth All-Star appearance next season would be absurd. Disregard the pants-soiling stats; the coaches will vote him in out of fear for what will happen if they don't.
West Backcourt Starter: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
2 of 14
Age: 26
All-Star Selections: 2
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 23.6 points, 4.7 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 2.2 steals, 48.1 percent shooting, 27.4 PER
Spoiler Alert: The leading vote-getter for the 2015 NBA All-Star Game isn't going anywhere.
Stephen Curry's time atop the league's totem pole has really only just begun. He's gone from a fringe All-Star in 2013 to a supernatural stat-stuffing machine today.
In ancient times (2012), we might have questioned whether his ankles would hold up. But his availability, along with his pre-eminent playmaking and shooting, is now a given.
"Above all else, Curry has mesmerizing talent," wrote Sam Amick of USA Today. "On his best nights, he's a combination of Steve Nash, Pete Maravich and Reggie Miller. The pull-up threes, behind-the-back passes and yo-yo style dribbling have made the Warriors must-see TV and Oracle Arena a hallowed hall of hoops."
If his current numbers hold, Curry has a real opportunity to join Jordan as just the second player to average 23.0 points, four rebounds, eight assists and two steals per game for an entire season. And he has that chance while posting a true shooting percentage (62)—metric measuring two-point, three-point and free-throw efficiency—higher than anything Jordan ever registered.
Curry's brand of efficient volume usage is unprecedented. Record-breakers like himself don't just fall off the face of the Earth in one year's time. He's the type of player who will remain in this spot, starting All-Star exhibitions for years to come.
West Backcourt Starter: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
3 of 14
Age: 36
All-Star Selections: 17 (14 appearances)
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 22.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.3 steals, 37.3 percent shooting, 17.6 PER
Anyone who's anyone understands Bryant's ability is long past the days of starting All-Star tilts.
Anyone who's anyone also understands his popularity is greater than that of pretty much everyone else in the NBA.
Just look at the top All-Star vote-getters this year:
- Stephen Curry: 1,513,324
- LeBron James: 1,470,483
- Anthony Davis: 1,369,911
- Kobe Bryant: 1,152,402
- James Harden: 1,069,368
Bryant finished fourth, exceeding Harden's tallies and rivaling Davis' popularity. That's not about to change.
This was the least efficient season of Bryant's career, and fans still voted him in. Next season could—and probably will—be his last. The Kobe Cult isn't about to squander its final chance to see No. 24 run beside the league's best players.
Emails offering condolence to Harden should be sent to JHardizzle@beard.iamtherealmvp.net.
Western Conference Frontcourt Reserves
4 of 14
LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers
A bum left thumb couldn't stop Aldridge from competing this year. The only reason he wouldn't be repping the Blazers at next season's competition is because he signed elsewhere in free agency.
In that scenario, he would be representing the San Antonio Spurs whichever team he signed with.
My point is, the only player to surpass 20 points and eight rebounds per game through each of the last five seasons is going to make his fifth All-Star appearance in 2016.
DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings
Justice has not yet been served. Not entirely. Not until DeMarcus Cousins is an All-Star without strings attached.
This should have been the season, but it wasn't. He was named as an injury placement, helping the NBA avoid one of the worst snubs ever.
Next year should pose no such roadblocks. Cousins is on the verge of joining David Robinson and Charles Barkley as the only three players to eclipse 6,000 points, 3,500 rebounds, 450 steals and 350 blocks through their first five seasons, and there's nothing to suggest he'll soon slow down.
Listen closely, and you can already hear those strings coming undone.
Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
Going out on a limb here.
Kawhi Leonard isn't your typical All-Star. He is quiet, keeps to himself and only laughs once every six years. He is the personality inverse of Dwight Howard. But he's also a budding star.
Leonard's usage rate has exploded this season, as have most of his numbers. With the Western Conference short on dominance at small forward, and with Leonard's importance to the Spurs increasing daily, it's only a matter of time before he plays in his first All-Star Game—363 days, to be exact.
West Frontcourt Starter: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
5 of 14
Age: 26
All-Star Selections: 6
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 25.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 0.9 steals, 51.7 percent shooting, 28.6 PER
Don't fret Kevin Durant's stay outside the All-Star starting lineup. It won't last long.
Various injuries restricted Durant's fan votes this season, relegating him to reserve duty, warping our perception of All-Star Weekend as we know it. But when Durant has played, he's been downright dangerous—Durantish, if you will.
Another 50/40/90 shooting slash is out of reach, though not by a long shot. Durant continues to shoot better than 50 percent overall and 40 percent from deep. It's his free-throw percentage (85.2) that's "hurt" him.
No matter, though. Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal found concrete evidence that Durant is still Durant and fated to stay Durant for the foreseeable future:
"The list of players in NBA history who have posted a true shooting percentage of at least 63, averaged more than 25 points per game and taken at least four triples during the typical contest is a short one.
Durant did it in 2012-13 and again in 2013-14.
Now, he is doing it in 2014-15.
"
Really, Durant's 2016 All-Star candidacy isn't even a question. So long as he doesn't gamble away his spot in an illicit one-on-one competition, he'll be in Toronto as a starter, listening to Drake serenade him on all Canada has to offer a svelte giant like himself.
Which brings us to a question actually worth asking: Will the 2016 All-Star slate be Durant's last as a member of the Thunder?
West Frontcourt Starter: Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers
6 of 14
Age: 25
All-Star Selections: 5 (4 appearances)
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 22.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 50.1 percent shooting, 23.1 PER
Blake Griffin's numbers are difficult to sustain in video games, let alone real life. He's the most well-rounded power forward in the Association, possessing the ability to post up, take opponents off the dribble, drill mid-range jumpers, bury three-pointers and, most importantly, serve as a secondary playmaker.
One could certainly argue Griffin was better last season, when he garnered MVP consideration by carrying the Clippers in Paul's absence. But the players who have averaged 20 points, seven rebounds and five assists on 50 percent shooting for an entire season over the least 20 years can be counted on one hand.
There is Kevin Garnett, Durant, James and now Griffin. That's it.
Elbow surgery forced him out of this year's contest, but he'll be back. He is now the perfect combination of methodical and athletic—potent enough to obliterate box scores and unique enough to incite the fan fervor that remains pivotal to earning All-Star starter honors.
Expect the still-young Griffin to resume his All-Star tour next February.
West Frontourt Starter: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
7 of 14
Age: 21
All-Star Selections: 2 (one appearance)
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 24.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 2.7 blocks, 55.1 percent shooting, 31.8 PER
A defense of this prediction could entail any number of things.
I could tell you Davis will be the fourth player in league history to eclipse touchstones of 24.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 2.5 blocks. Then I could tell you that puts him in the company of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Hakeem Olajuwon and Robinson.
After that, I could tell you he's on pace to tie the highest PER ever (Wilt Chamberlain in 1962-63), surpassing the career highs of James and Jordan three years before either of them reached said crest.
Finally, I could tell you that Davis is his own species, a world-wolfing paragon unlike any other the NBA has ever seen.
Instead, I'll just remind you that Davis, despite missing this year's All-Star Game, is the NBA's future, destined to grab the torch James now holds. The only way he isn't starting in next year's All-Star racket is if the mothership from Cybertron phones him home.
Eastern Conference Backcourt Reserves
8 of 14
Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks
Jeff Teague is the new-age Tony Parker—sensational yet underrated. His numbers have improved through each of his first six seasons, and he's been thriving within head coach Mike Budenholzer's offense, averaging career highs in points and assists despite seeing his usage rate drop slightly from last year.
When next season tips off, Teague will be just 27, playing on the NBA's freshest force, with one All-Star appearance already under his belt. This is a player who, as of now, leads the NBA's second-best team in win shares (with Al Horford).
There's exactly a zero percent chance he is not back in the All-Star conversation next season.
Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
This is what banking on Jimmy Butler's breakout campaign being more than a contract-year anomaly looks like.
Shooting guard remains a barren position, especially when it comes to two-way talent. The East itself isn't particularly flush with dominant 2-guards, hence the fans voting in two point men as starters this season.
Wade is still flashy but seldom healthy, DeMar DeRozan appears to have peaked statistically, and Bradley Beal just isn't ready. That leaves us with Butler, who joins Harden and Westbrook as the only guards topping 20 points, five rebounds, three assists and one steal per game.
Punching his second straight All-Star ticket shouldn't be an issue, provided Tom Thibodeau doesn't somehow force him to play 77 minutes in 48-minute games.
Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors (Wild-Card Reserve)
Not much to see here.
Kyle Lowry is still steering one of the league's best offenses, and his individual numbers continue to resemble that of an All-Star. Though defending this year's starting slot will be difficult, the All-Star festivities will be in Toronto. The coaches will have no choice but to recognize him for his offensive torrents.
Someone has to be out there representing the Raptors. And if it's not going to be Bruno Caboclo, Lowry is the next-best guess.
East Backcourt Starter: John Wall, Washington Wizards
9 of 14
Age: 24
All-Star Selections: 2
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 17.4 points, 4.5 assists, 10.1 assists, 1.9 steals, 46.0 percent shooting, 20.7 PER
Is John Wall the best point guard in the Eastern Conference?
Yes.
Will that change before or during next season?
Absolutely not.
Every year, it's something different with Wall. Last season, he sported a newly improved jumper, hitting a career-high 35.1 percent of his long balls. This season, his three-point touch has dropped, but he's banging in a personal-best 45.8 percent of his shots between three feet and inside the three-point line, while also leading the Association in assists.
Armed with speed, precise court vision and the means to score from anywhere on the floor, Wall has made the Eastern Conference's point guard throne his own, capitalizing on the void Derrick Rose's years-long downturn has created.
Other challengers, like Irving, are certainly out there, but it's Wall and Wall alone who is charged with the Washington Wizards' well-being. Both their offense and defense are better with him on the floor, and he doesn't have the comfort of a fellow superstar to make life easier.
None of which is an indictment of the Wizards, who are endowed with blue-collar talent. It's just that Wall, an end-to-end lightning rod, has become the East's most indispensable floor general. The impact that's had on his popularity is undeniable, evident in his transition from almost-All-Star to All-Star reserve to All-Star starter.
Not yet 25, Wall is only just getting started. For him, an All-Star selection is no longer a possible privilege. It's an assumed right.
East Backcourt Starter: Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers
10 of 14
Age: 22
All-Star Selections: 3
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 21.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.5 steals, 46.6 percent shooting, 21.0 PER
Playing second fiddle to James is starting to look really good on Irving. This time next season, he will only look better.
Despite a substantial dip in usage rate, Irving's scoring totals are better than they were in 2014-15. His true shooting percentage (57.6) has never been higher, and he's drilling a godly 45.2 percent of his catch-and-shoot three-pointers.
By season's end, Irving will have also surpassed 5,000 points, 800 rebounds, 1,400 assists and 300 steals for his career. The list of players to streak past those plateaus through their first three campaigns while shooting 38 percent from deep is short. Super short.
Keeping his All-Star credibility intact beyond this season, then, shouldn't be an issue. He had enough clout to secure a starting spot in 2014, and the Cleveland Cavaliers' roller coaster wasn't enough to keep him off the roster in 2015.
His running beside James will be second nature in one year's time, making Irving that much more dangerous. Given his age, his continued offensive dominance and the fact he's already won All-Star MVP honors, there's little keeping him from returning to starter territory—which is good, because Wall and Irving will make for a fun duo.
Eastern Conference Frontcourt Reserves
11 of 14
Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
Picking Paul Millsap is only a risky gambit for us because of his upcoming free agency. Unlike Aldridge and Leonard, his situation isn't as cut and dried.
As the league's only player to be averaging at least 16.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.5 steals per game, Millsap is entering max-contract territory. There's no telling whether dollars and cents will get in the way of his remaining in Atlanta.
But it's those numbers that make him such an obvious pick. Millsap has morphed into one of the game's most versatile forwards, and so long as he remains in the Eastern Conference, a third All-Star berth will be within his reach.
Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons
The time has come. Or rather, it's coming.
Although Andre Drummond's efficiency has dipped this season, that's to be expected when his usage rate jumps by nearly five points. Plus, it's not like he's doing his best Josh Smith impression. Drummond can be sloppy in the post, but he's shooting 50 percent overall and has become more self-sufficient under Stan Van Gundy.
Those per-36-minute splits of his are still brain-bending as well. That he's only 21 favors him, too.
Regardless of whether unrestricted free agent Greg Monroe leaves, Van Gundy has been dead set on making Drummond a focal point. In a league short on Dwight Howard comparisons, Drummond will receive his All-Star due eventually. It just so happens "eventually" means next year.
Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
Chris Bosh hasn't kept the Heat in play for a top-four playoff spot, but he is putting up numbers, exceeding 20 points per game for the first time since leaving the Raptors.
As a primary offensive option, Bosh leaves a lot to be desired. He continues to live on the perimeter, shooting more threes than ever before. But that only means he's protected against the physical beatdowns he would receive down low, ensuring his game ages well.
Unlike fallen stars Amar'e Stoudemire and Carlos Boozer, Bosh has expanded his offensive repertoire to meet contemporary standards. The NBA is a floor-spacing league, and Bosh can space the floor. And with Wade aging fast, he'll have every opportunity to get numbers and nab his 11th All-Star spot (10th appearance) next season.
Nikola Vucevic (Wild-Card Reserve)
Nikola Vucevic is the first NBA player since Howard in 2011-12 to average at least 19.0 points, 11.0 rebounds and 1.5 assists on 50 percent shooting per game. He should have been an All-Star this year, so it's a safe bet he'll wind up in the discussion again next season.
Orlando's coaching situation—the team doesn't have a permanent one—makes this an iffy pick. A different, faster-pace offense could curb Vucevic's scoring opportunities and overall playing time.
Still, 7-footers with his combination of offensive range and rebounding prowess are tough to find. If the Magic feed him, he's going to eat. And after handing him a four-year, $53 million extension, it appears they want him to feast.
East Frontcourt Starter: LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
12 of 14
Age: 30
All-Star Selections: 11
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 25.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 1.5 steals, 48.9 percent shooting, 25.5 PER
The year in which James isn't named an All-Star starter will be a sad one indeed. Good thing it's not on the horizon.
Popularity is an integral ingredient to netting a starting spot, and James is certainly popular. He is the closest thing to Jordan's heir apparent the NBA has ever had (sorry, Kobe) and remains an unparalleled stats-piler.
Sure, James has more than 41,600 playoff and regular-season minutes on his treads. And yes, there was a weeks-long span to start this season during which he looked human. But this is James we're talking about. An all-time great. The only player to finish his first 12 seasons with a minimum of 20,000 points, 6,000 rebounds, 6,000 assists and 1,500 steals—and his 12th season isn't even over yet.
Even the most expansive list of reasons why James wouldn't start an All-Star Game is woefully brief. Exhibit A:
- James retires
- James is injured
- The All-Star jamboree is cancelled due to a lockout (keep your fingers crossed in 2017, ladies and gentleman)
- James ditches All-Star Weekend to finish filming Space Jam 2: Daffy Duck's MVP Journey
Moral of the story: James will be one of your five Eastern Conference starters until he decides otherwise.
East Frontcourt Starter: Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks
13 of 14
Age: 30
All-Star Selections: 8
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 24.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.0 steals, 44.4 percent shooting, 21.7 PER
Eight All-Star selections later, it's fair to wonder when Anthony's place among the top stars will cease to exist. There is no easy way to ask or answer that question. Anthony is anything but a conventional superstar. He's derided for his play style and free-agency decisions, yet here he is, about to start on his sixth straight All-Star stage.
Age and injuries only compound this issue. Speeding toward 31, Anthony has been banged up all year and is planning to shut himself down for the rest of this season.
"It's very likely. It's very likely," he said during an interview on ESPN Radio, per ESPN New York's Ian Begley. "Now I've got to start thinking about the future."
A future that should still include at least one more All-Star start.
Anthony is brand-obsessed, and it shows. It showed in Eli Saslow's piece for ESPN The Magazine, wherein Anthony emphasized his off-court relevance, and it shows in the way the half-hobbled star made himself available for a game that doesn't actually matter.
But this brand of Anthony's, while having endured a lion's share of vitriol, is irrefutably strong. He's been looped in with the game's best players for years, synonymous with the likes of James, Wade and Paul.
That he plays in a market like New York also helps, as does his ability to carry an entire offense, no matter how bad. The New York Knicks run the equivalent of a top-10 attack when he's on the floor. When he's on the bench, they pump in just 94 points per 100 possessions, which would rank as one of the seven worst efficiency ratings of all time.
Eventually, someone will come for Anthony's starting spot, a talent not even his off-court reach can fend off. For now, and leading into next season, his on- and off-court clout should be enough to award him a seventh consecutive All-Star start in 2016.
East Frontcourt Starter: Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers
14 of 14
Kevin Love
Age: 26
All-Star Selections: 3
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 17.0 points, 10.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 42.9 percent shooting, 19.0 PER
Oodles of things are happening here.
First, we're banking on Kevin Love staying in Cleveland, because, well, that's what he is going to do.
Second, we're positing that three Cavaliers will be in the East's starting lineup. This is not an unreasonable guess, knowing each of the Miami Heat's Big Three earned a starting nod in the 2013-2014 season. It's even more plausible considering the dearth of polarizing centers who play in the East (feel free to join the dark side in free agency, Marc Gasol).
Lastly, and most importantly, this demands we remember all Love accomplished before he came to Cleveland. His 2014-15 campaign has been a disappointment compared to his days with the Minnesota Timberwolves, but that's what happens when you go from being the first, second, third, fourth and fifth option to being the third.
Never mind that 17 and 10 are solid numbers for a third fiddle. This is still the same Love who finished third in All-Star voting among all Western Conference frontcourt players last season. That's exponentially harder than securing a starting spot in the East, not to mention a harbinger of hope for those wondering if Love will ever be close to the same.
"I don't know," Love told Northeast Ohio Media Group's Chris Haynes of when he'll return to form. "I just kind of go out there and play and affect the game. Right now, I'm trying to find my way."
Players as talented as Love, playing on teams as talented as the Cavaliers, always find their way. And as next year's All-Star ballots will show, Love himself will be no exception.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and are accurate as of games played leading into the All-Star break.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
