The Blueprint for NBA's Worst Teams to Turn Things Around
Whip out those handy, dandy, outdated paper maps. The NBA's worst teams are taking a road trip.
Their destination? Better days.
No bad franchise plans on being bad forever. That would make no sense. Each of the league's bottom-feeders—whether it's rebuilding, tanking or down and out by accident—has a plan, a map, to guide it toward decency. These strategies aren't always spoken, but they're evident through action, rumors and salary-cap finagling.
As pioneers of the NBA landscape, we're going to find the paths by which these fallen factions will redeem themselves. In the case of a couple cities (sup, Sacramento?), we're going to suggest rebuilding blueprints, be it because multiple options are at play or because the team in question doesn't seem to have one.
Picking the Association's worst performers comes mostly down to records. All four of the league's worst record holders are here, begging you to uncover their rebuilding secrets. The other three case studies are squads that have severely underachieved—to the point where they're worse off than those with inferior records.
Select bad teams are given a pass. The Utah Jazz's record is unflattering, but they're years into their transition and right where they should be, relative to expectations. Both the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers are chasing playoff spots despite having lost key contributors. They're not here, either.
Only the truly bad, browbeaten teams are here. One day soon, they hope not to be here. Are they on the right track? You be the judge.
Orlando Magic: Staying the Course
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Here's the good news: The Orlando Magic are on pace to register their highest win total since trading Dwight Howard.
Now for the bad news: They're still only on course to rattle off 24 victories—hence why former head coach Jacque Vaughn is looking for work.
Orlando has an exceptional core in place. Two potential stars in Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo headline the backcourt, Tobias Harris and Evan Fournier are scoring like whoa, Aaron Gordon is a monster, and Nikola Vucevic is the first NBA player to average at least 19 points, 11 rebounds and 1.9 assists on 50 percent shooting since Howard himself in 2011-12 (read: Nikola Vucevic is an All-Star snub).
That's why this season has been so disappointing. After selling off their most impactful players, the Celtics are still contending for a playoff berth. So too are the Pacers, even though Paul George is out and Lance Stephenson is in Charlotte. The Magic should be in similar territory, not posting the league's fifth-worst record.
Fortunately for them, they own all their first-round picks and, again, have a truckload of talent to tout. Harris' foray into restricted free agency is a roadblock but a small one. They should be able to successfully rebound by taking stock from within—provided they hire a coach suited to guide said talent.
Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated says the team will begin a "national coaching search" soon, casting a "wide net" over the most intriguing candidates. Scott Skiles, Mike Malone, Vinny Del Negro and Mark Jackson are all expected to earn consideration.
Whomever the Magic eventually decide on must cater to incumbent players. These Magic are built to run, yet Vaughn turned them into half-court stragglers, the results of which are the bottom-seven offense and defense we see today.
Promising prospects in hand, the Magic need only stay their current course. It's the speed with which they're traveling down it that needs to change.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Andrew Wiggins Everything
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When an NBA team unearths an MIM (Megastar in the Making), it's best to hold on tight. The Minnesota Timberwolves have grabbed hold of Andrew Wiggins, president of MIM, Inc., and they better never let go.
Wiggins has cooled off since averaging 19.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.4 steals on 47.1 percent shooting in January, but he's still the clear favorite for Rookie of the Year.
According Couper Moorhead, formerly of NBA.com, he's also the sixth rookie teenager to average 16 points per 36 minutes, post a true shooting percentage above 50, record a usage rate north of 20 and tally a player efficiency rating of 12 or better. Cliff Robinson and Stephon Marbury are among the other five.
Oh, and so are Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant. Pretty good company.
Other building blocks are littered across Minnesota's roster, from Ricky Rubio to Zach LaVine to Gorgui Dieng. But Wiggins is the Timberwolves' lone indispensable player. Assembling a young, developing supporting cast around him is the quickest way back to prominence.
To an extent, the Timberwolves have already done this, thanks to the aforesaid running mates Wiggins plays beside. It's just a matter of taking this perfectly positioned rebuild one step further by identifying those who don't have a future in Minnesota—a process that's already underway.
Most recently, the Timberwolves sent Mo Williams to the Charlotte Hornets in exchange for a second-round pick and contract fodder (Gary Neal), per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. They also rolled the dice on rookie Adreian Payne for a lottery-protected first-rounder, according to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Chris Vivlamore.
These are the types of future-driven moves the Timberwolves should be making. Stockpiling assets is the primary priority. If takers for veterans Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic exist, neither should be deemed forbidden fruit. They are not the Timberwolves' future.
Andrew Wiggins is, and every move made from this point forward must reflect his soaring status.
Denver Nuggets: Blow It Up
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This charade has gone on long enough. The Denver Nuggets need to disband.
Finally (half-)healthy, the Nuggets were supposed to be one of the six bajillion squads contending for the Western Conference's final playoff spot. Instead, they're sitting 13 games under .500, with an offense that falls short of mediocre and a defense that's even worse.
It's gotten to the point where head coach Brian Shaw doesn't know what to do anymore. He's tried calling out his team's listlessness; last season, he tried monitoring the players' junk-food intake. Now he's resting his hopes on the power of how-to books.
Shaw admitted to Turner Sports' Rachel Nichols that's he's had "some trouble communicating with his players." Things have turned so sour, he's "started to read some books on how to relate to millennials." Sure.
Whether or not Shaw factors into Denver's long-term plans is of little concern. Irrespective of who's coaching them, the Nuggets need to start from scratch.
Unlike the Magic (Howard) and the New Orleans Hornets/Pelicans (Chris Paul), it's a move they've evaded since trading away their only superstar in Carmelo Anthony. But while there's plenty of talent on the docket, these Nuggets no longer stand up to that 57-win aberration from 2012-13.
Hoarding draft picks and cap space is now imperative, more so than any one player. The Nuggets have already halfheartedly come to terms with this by dealing Timofey Mozgov and entertaining offers for Wilson Chandler and Arron Afflalo, according to The Denver Post's Christopher Dempsey, but deliberate demolition demands a full-on embrace.
Using assets like Chandler and Afflalo as buffers for picks or the departures of hefty contracts (JaVale McGee, J.J. Hickson) would help the Nuggets become more flexible. Capped out through 2015-16, they're at a point where only Ty Lawson and Jusuf Nurkic should be labeled untouchable.
Everyone else is fair game, because the Nuggets aren't going anywhere as currently constructed. Creating clean slates through conspicuous destruction should be the next move if they're committed to leaving mediocrity behind.
Philadelphia 76ers: Keep on Hinkie-ing On
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Sometimes it can be difficult to see the light at the end of the Philadelphia 76ers' dark, dank, dingy tunnel. But make no mistake—the light is there, brilliant as ever, growing brighter by the day.
The Sixers offense is a mess, no doubt. The team ranks dead last in offensive efficiency, scoring 93.6 points per 100 possessions. Using adjusted efficiency metrics—which weight team performance against the league average (formula here), allowing us to rank squads across history—we find this puts the Sixers on pace to field the worst offense ever.
Somewhat quietly, though, general manager Sam Hinkie's tank fest is yielding positive results. Not only are the Sixers not in line for the league's worst record, but they rank 12th in points allowed per 100 possessions, giving them a sneaky-super defense. In stats-speak, their defense is better than that of the Chicago Bulls(!?).
"First and foremost, that's a credit to the system and the culture Brown's creating," wrote Bleacher Report's Alec Nathan. "Players are buying into the notion that defense can produce wins despite encountering major developmental hitches on offense, and recent results have indicated as much."
Nerlens Noel cannot be overlooked here, either; he's fourth in defensive box score plus/minus. The Sixers rank sixth in rim protection and first in opponent field-goal attempts in the paint. This, while running at the sixth-fastest pace. In case you didn't know, that's hard to do. Here's a list of teams that are in the top 12 of pace and defensive efficiency:
- Golden State Warriors
- Houston Rockets
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Portland Trail Blazers
- Philadelphia 76ers
All title contenders....and the Sixers.
Hinkie's formula is working. The Sixers are guaranteed another top-six pick at the moment and will likely own the Miami Heat's first-rounder. Come next season, they could have six recently selected first-round prospects to develop: Michael Carter-Williams, Joel Embiid (injured), Dario Saric (overseas), Noel, their 2015 selection and Miami's 2015 selection.
And then there's cap space. The Sixers will have a fleet of armored trucks at their disposal this coming summer, all filled with the means to poach free agents.
So long as they continue following Hinkie's plan, stocking their stable with draft picks and financial plasticity, the Sixers' blueprint for redemption is both clear and promising.
Los Angeles Lakers: Cap Space
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Cap space is the most important thing to the Los Angeles Lakers now, more so than even Kobe Bryant, whose twilight is tightly tethered to the free agents his team can or cannot sign.
Only four Lakers players are under guaranteed contract after this season: Bryant, Nick Young, Julius Randle and Ryan Kelly, all of whom combine for almost $35.1 million in commitments. With the salary cap projected to reach $66.5 million for 2015-16, this gives the Lakers plenty of wiggle room.
Assuming the ping-pong-ball gods allow the Lakers to retain their top-five protected first-round pick, their salary bill will balloon to around $42.2 million after paying said selection and factoring in the requisite number of minimum cap holds (six at $507,336 apiece).
Most of this space is predicated on the Lakers renouncing rights to their own free agents (Ed Davis, Jordan Hill), but still, they have the ability to create more than $24 million in spending power. And this pocket-deepening capacity comes not a moment too soon.
Marc Gasol, Paul Millsap, Rajon Rondo, LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and so many other star free agents will be available. Signing one or two studs allows the Lakers to go from joke to juggernaut overnight.
That transition would take place just in time for the expected salary-cap boon in 2016, at which point the Lakers can go superstar-hunting once more, reaping the benefits of an expanded financial ceiling and Bryant's presumed retirement.
But while that's all reason enough for optimism, the success of this turnaround depends on free agents wanting to play for the Lakers. Striking out this summer or next—or both—leaves the team stranded, scouring for answers it may not find, subject to the wrath of one Magic Johnson.
Said the Lakers legend with regard to part-owner and executive vice president Jim Buss on ESPN's "First Take" (via ESPN Los Angeles' Baxter Holmes): "If he doesn't have a big summer with a free agent, it looks like they'll have a good draft pick. Put that together with a good free agent, you can be right back into the mix. If this summer, that doesn't happen where they can sign a great player, it's over for us."
Historical mystique, plus cap space, should thrust the Lakers into any free-agent conversations worth having. Once there, it's a matter of watching out for killer dolphins hoping their appeal is unconditional.
New York Knicks: What the Lakers Said
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If it feels like you're existing within a universe in which the New York Knicks recycle free-agency pipe dreams every five years, you're neither alone nor wrong. You're one of many and absolutely correct.
Like the Lakers, the Knicks are banking on free agency to carry them out from their bottomless pit. Sure, they're in play for this year's No. 1 pick. But this is a dollars-dependent squad above all else.
Five players are under guaranteed contract for next season: Anthony, Tim Hardaway Jr., Cleanthony Early, Jose Calderon and Pablo Prigioni. Together, those players represent roughly $34.2 million in commitments.
In the event the Knicks land the No. 1 pick, their cap hits will climb to roughly $42.3 million after doling out said selection's salary and accounting for the necessary minimum holds (five at $507,663 apiece). Their flexibility increases if they don't win the lottery. It skyrockets if they find takers for the $9.1 million owed to Calderon and Prigioni.
Just like the Lakers, though, the Knicks' cap space—which could exceed $30 million—means nothing if free agents aren't interested in what they're slinging. And for his part, team president Phil Jackson is worried this season's failed triangle experiment will function as a deterrent.
"Of course it’s a concern of mine, the perception that it’s too difficult to learn or too difficult for today’s players to embrace," he told The New York Times' Harvey Araton. "But I think anyone that believes he’s a total basketball player is going to want to do it."
Carmelo Anthony can help on that front. He's contemplating shutting it down for the rest of this season, per Bleacher Report's Ethan Skolnick, but he's still a superstar. His sales pitch over the offseason, whatever it is, should resonate with other superstars.
And if it doesn't, the Knicks will have a top draft pick and the summer of 2016 to fall back on—neither of which is a comforting consolation prize knowing how badly this team needs an immediate offseason win to justify its mounting losses.
Sacramento Kings: Stability
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Obligatory disclaimer: The Sacramento Kings shouldn't be here. Not the way they started this season. Alas, here they are, and they have only themselves to blame.
Firing Mike Malone sent the Kings into a tailspin. They began the season 9-5, were 11-13 when he was canned and are 7-20 since.
During this time, the Kings have certainly been off to the races. Where they're running to, we're not entirely sure. They rank fifth in pace over the last 27 games but 24th in offensive efficiency, 28th in defensive efficiency and 27th in net rating.
Boasting little in the way of financial flexibility, it would behoove the Kings to forge some breathing room. Unloading the contracts of Jason Thompson and Carl Landry and parting ways with Derrick Williams would work wonders for their books this summer.
Still, stability is more important than anything now—and not solely because Thompson and Landry may prove immovable. The Kings are ahead of the curve with DeMarcus Cousins in tow. He is the superstar many other rebuilding teams do not have.
Rather than capitalize on its good fortune there, Sacramento is doing everything possible to squander Cousins' goodwill. According to ESPN.com's Marc Stein and Chris Broussard, George Karl is set to assume head-coaching responsibilities. Karl will be Cousins' fifth coach, and the big man is not taking this unrest particularly well.
From Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher:
"This is not Cousins being angry because he doesn't like Karl. Did you hear anger in his voice when he cryptically asked reporters, "How you going to stop God's plan?" No, you heard confusion and puzzlement because this is the same Karl who, Cousins was told earlier in the season, would not be the right coach for him, a source said.
Forget the semantics over when, or even if, Karl is hired. Cousins has been told it's what the Kings want to do after being told it wasn't, which raises a serious question: How much does owner Vivek Ranadive really value Cousins?
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Loads of other issues will come into play if the Kings are to end what will now be a nine-year playoff drought. But returning to respectability begins with getting their house in order and earning the trust of a thriving franchise centerpiece.
If this season has been any indication, the Kings have crazy amounts of in-house quandaries to solve before doing anything else.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and are accurate as of games played Feb. 10, 2015 unless otherwise cited. Draft pick information via RealGM. Salary information collected from HoopsHype and Larry Coon's CBA FAQ.
