Playoffs Start Now for Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder are running out of time.
Early-season injuries to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook set OKC back. From an early juncture, the Thunder knew the first few months of the season would be about surviving, getting healthy and setting themselves up for an eventual run.
Survival turned out to be difficult.
Getting healthy remains a work in progress.
And that run? It hasn't started yet, and the Thunder are 50 games into an 82-game campaign.
If Oklahoma City were in this position—at exactly .500, three games short of the No. 8 seed out West—in December, there'd be far less cause for concern. Individual losses, even those as devastating as the one authored by an Anthony Davis buzzer-beater on Feb. 6, could be chalked up as bumps in the road or blips on the radar.
"Yeah," Durant said, agreeing that it just doesn't seem to be going their way this season, per Royce Young of ESPN.com. "But we've got to fight through it. It happens. It's not the first time it's happened to anybody. It's not the last time it's happened to a team. Teams have went through it before. We just have to keep our heads up, keep fighting, keep pushing."
But it's February, and the era of tossing aside individual defeats, the days of "on to the next," are over.
The age of urgency is upon the Thunder.
In fact, it's been around for a while. From the moment Oklahoma City announced Durant's fractured foot would keep him out for the start of the season, the calculations began. When Westbrook broke his hand shortly thereafter, the math took on a new intensity.
Could the team stay afloat without the NBA's top one-two punch? How many games could it afford to give away without its stars? Would the hole be too deep? What would it take to climb out of the chasm?
Grantland's Zach Lowe juggled the figures on Nov. 4:
"It’s 1-3 now, and even with a friendly early-season schedule by Western Conference standards, it’s not hard to imagine it at something like 8-17 when the stars come back. The math from there is daunting.
Oklahoma City would have to go 41-16 just to reach the 49 wins it took to snag the No. 8 spot last season. And that 8-17 record, as bad as it looks, might be optimistic.
"
OKC was 5-10 on Dec. 2 when KD joined Westbrook (who'd come back on Nov. 28) in the lineup for the first time, which meant it needed to go 44-23 to reach that magical 49-win plateau.
Durant's sprained ankle cost him another handful of games, and then an injured toe robbed him of a few more.
On Jan. 20, ESPN Insider Bradford Doolittle provided an update on the numbers:
"Judging OKC on its season record is harsh, but those early losses do count. During Durant's 17 games, the Thunder are 12-5 for a .705 winning percentage. Maintaining that clip for the rest of the season would net the Thunder about another 30 wins, putting them at 50-32.
If Phoenix keeps its pace, the Suns would end up 48-34. The margins are narrow: If Phoenix gets especially hot, or the Thunder suffer another injury, they could be in trouble.
"
Now, after losing to the New Orleans Pelicans on Davis' crunch-time triple, the Thunder sit at an even and uninspiring 25-25. They are 14-9 with Durant in the lineup, and head coach Scott Brooks is keenly aware of how little his team can afford to hold back. He played KD a season-high 43 minutes in his return after missing two games (and four of his last five) against New Orleans.
Brass tacks: Oklahoma City must go 24-8 over its final 32 games to reach 49 wins. That's a winning percentage of 75 percent.
In a season full of tough breaks, one thing seems to be working in the Thunder's favor: That 49-win requirement, which was based on what it took to secure the No. 8 seed in the West a year ago, is starting to look a little high.
The Phoenix Suns currently own the eighth spot in the West with a record of 29-23, good enough for a winning percentage of 55.8 percent. If that rate were to hold steady over their final 30 games, they'd finish with just 46 wins. To reach 49, Phoenix would have to win at a 65 percent clip down the stretch.
New Orleans' full-season pace has it on track for 45 wins. If we assume the 57.8 percent pace the Pellies have been on since Jan. 1—during which they've boasted an 11-8 record and the league's No. 5 offensive rating, per NBA.com—they could reach 47 wins.
That might be enough to hold off the Thunder. Or it might not.
According to John Hollinger's playoff odds on ESPN.com (through games played Feb. 6), the Thunder currently have a 33.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, which trails the Pelicans' 54.6 percent chance by a significant margin. The Suns, despite currently owning a playoff entry ticket, have just a 30.7 percent chance.
That has a lot to do with the remaining schedules for all three teams. Here's a breakdown of the home and road games left, as well as the overall strength of schedule remaining, via NBA.com and PlayoffStatus.com, respectively:
| Thunder | 19 | 13 | 54% |
| Pelicans | 17 | 14 | 51% |
| Suns | 15 | 15 | 51% |
As you can see, the Suns have a tougher road than either the Thunder or Pelicans.
If you're looking for glimmers of hope for the Thunder, those 19 home games are a good place to start. You might also consider the fact that of these three teams, OKC is the one with the highest demonstrated ceiling. Maybe 49 wins and a .750 clip the rest of the way won't be necessary.
But if they were, Oklahoma City has shown the capability of playing nearly that well over multiple full seasons. Last year, the Thunder won 72 percent of their games. The year before, they won 73.2 percent.
The same core is intact, and if the increasing sense of urgency works as a motivating factor, it's not out of the realm of possibility to imagine the Thunder winning three out of every four games from now until mid-April.
Of course, presuming that this specific team is comparable to the OKC squads we've watched over the past couple of years might be a mistake. Durant's accumulated injury issues have to be considered, as does the small statistical step backward Serge Ibaka has taken.
Perhaps everything will come together, Durant will stay perfectly healthy from now on, and Ibaka's numbers will improve as he plays more games with his superstar teammates in the lineup. Maybe Westbrook extends his Wilt Chamberlain impression over the next few months:
In that scenario, it's easy to imagine OKC hitting a new level, blowing past its less experienced competition and easily claiming that playoff spot.
Remember, the 2012-13 Los Angeles Lakers dealt with injuries to Dwight Howard, Steve Nash and Pau Gasol (not to mention chemistry and coaching concerns) during a 23-27 start. And they still made the dance after finishing on a 22-10 run. Though it took only 45 wins to reach the postseason in a weaker field that year, that example offers a recent reminder that season-saving runs are possible.
At some point, though, all of these projections, historical comparisons and "what ifs" cloud the issue. They replace the practical with the hypothetical.
And the practical is this: Oklahoma City must play every remaining game on its schedule as if it were a postseason contest. The Thunder have to approach all of their todays as if there are no more tomorrows.
The margin for error has now shrunk to the point of near-invisibility.
The NBA postseason typically kicks off in April. For the Thunder, the urgency of the playoffs is already here.
*Stats accurate through games played Feb. 7.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
