Analyzing Denver Broncos' Best Trade Options with 28th Pick in NFL Draft
The Denver Broncos once again finished the regular season as one of the best teams in the AFC. For the fourth year in a row, Denver won the AFC West and made it to the postseason. For the third year in a row, the Broncos had a bye week in the first round of the playoffs.
This is great for their chances of making a Super Bowl run, but it also means (just like the last four years) they’ll be picking near the end of the first round in the NFL draft.
This year, the Broncos own the 28th pick in the first round. They held this pick before in a recent draft, back in 2013 when they selected defensive tackle Sylvester Williams.
That season, Williams started about half the year, flashed a little bit, but he didn’t make the impact that others did from his draft class. This year, the Broncos need to find an impact player, and one who could step in and start from day one.
That’s why the Broncos will be considering all options in the 2015 NFL draft. General manager John Elway is not afraid to deal picks in an effort to move up or down.
Denver is still in a Super bowl window, but that time frame to win a championship is closing rapidly. In fact, this year may be its last chance with quarterback Peyton Manning.
Here is my analysis of the best trade options for the Denver Broncos with their 28th overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft.
All quotes and injury/practice observations obtained firsthand. Record/statistical information provided via Broncos media department unless otherwise noted.
Contract and salary-cap information provided by Spotrac.com. Transaction history provided by ProSportsTransactions.com. Draft grades provided by NFLDraftScout.com.
Trade Up with Philadelphia
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The Philadelphia Eagles could be looking at moving up or down in the 2015 NFL draft. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them attempt a move that could put them in the top 10.
At that spot, the Eagles could target Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota. He played at Oregon under Chip Kelly, and the Eagles need a quarterback who fits their system.
It would be surprising to see Mariota go off the board past the sixth pick. The New York Jets own that selection, and they could add Mariota to compete with Geno Smith for the starting job. For the Eagles to move up from 20th to a top-10 or top-five pick would be quite the move.
If the Eagles are unable to get Mariota, they could be looking to move down in the draft. This is where Denver comes in.
Brett Hundley is rated as the third-best quarterback in this draft class by NFLDraftScout.com, and he could be a nice fit for the Eagles offense. It’s very likely the Eagles could move back from 20th to 28th and still have Hundley on the board.
According to the NFL draft value chart at WalterFootball.com, there is about a 200-point difference between the two picks. That means the Broncos would have to send a deal to the Eagles that included approximately a first- and third-round pick.
Why would Denver move up? Simple: This is a talent-rich class at offensive tackle, but Denver might want to secure one of the better players at the position earlier in the first round.
There might be as many as six or seven offensive tackles off the board on the first day of the draft. Most of that talent is going to be gone by the time Denver picks at 28.
Trade Back with Tennessee
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Any team that passes on a quarterback near the top of the draft might be interested in one in the second round—or near the end of the first. Tennessee owns the second overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft, but it could select a defensive tackle like Leonard Williams (USC) instead of a quarterback.
Jake Locker is a free agent and will likely be playing elsewhere in 2015. That leaves 2014 sixth-round pick Zach Mettenberger as the Titans' top signal-caller. Entering 2015 with such a shaky quarterback situation is not the wisest plan for the Titans. They could certainly be interested in trading back into the first round if they want a quarterback.
The Broncos might see the talent they want off the board long before they pick at 28. Moving back to the first pick of the second round (No. 33, Titans) could make a lot of sense.
The draft value chart shows that the 28th pick is worth about 660 points. The 33rd pick has a value of about 580 points. Making this move back five picks could net the Broncos a fourth-round pick.
At this time, Denver does not own a pick in that round, as it traded it to the San Francisco 49ers when it moved up in the second round last year to secure the services of wide receiver Cody Latimer.
Trade Up with Arizona
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The Arizona Cardinals might have their sights set on selecting a running back with their first-round pick. They currently own the 24th pick in the first round, but they might move down in order to add more picks.
The two top backs in this draft class according to NFLDraftScout.com are Todd Gurley (Georgia) and Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin). If both of those backs are on the board when the Cardinals pick, they could be tempted to move down a few picks if the deal is right.
With the Carolina Panthers, Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys between the Cardinals and Broncos picks, we could see Arizona make such a deal.
The Panthers are unlikely to select a running back in the first round. The Ravens could be interested, but they could also re-sign free agent Justin Forsett to be their starter in 2015. The Cowboys might also have interest in a back, but that’s only if they lose DeMarco Murray in free agency.
There’s a chance that if both backs are on the board at 24, they will also be there at 28.
Again, Denver might be targeting a starting right tackle in the 2015 NFL draft. According to Jeff Legwold from ESPN.com, the Broncos might be looking for three starters on the offensive line this offseason. A tackle or guard could be the top choice for Denver in this year’s draft.
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Trade Back with Buffalo
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The Buffalo Bills don’t have a first-round pick this year. That pick (19th overall) was traded to the Cleveland Browns last year so Buffalo could move up and select wide receiver Sammy Watkins. The Bills don’t have a first-round pick, and they don’t really have a quarterback. This might prompt them to move.
According to Gil Brandt from NFL.com, the top three needs for the Bills this offseason are quarterback, linebacker and safety.
The Bills have the 50th selection in the 2015 NFL draft. This puts them near the bottom third of the second round. The move from 28 to 50 could be a pricey one for the Bills.
According to the draft value chart, the point differential between the two picks is about 260 points. That means the Bills would have to send the Broncos a second- and at least a third-round pick in order to properly compensate.
If the Broncos see six offensive tackles go off the board before they pick, they could move back to that 50th pick and target a player like Daryl Williams (Oklahoma). At this time, Williams is ranked as the 53rd overall prospect in the draft by NFLDraftScout.com.
The Broncos would add more picks—quality picks—and still get a player who could start as a rookie.
Trade Back with Tampa Bay, Add Mike Glennon
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At this time, we don’t know if Peyton Manning is coming back for 2015. However, I would expect the Broncos to have interest in a quarterback this year in the draft regardless of Manning’s status.
Denver could look to the draft for quarterback help. While top-tier quarterbacks like Jameis Winston (Florida State) and Marcus Mariota (Oregon) are likely out of the question, the Broncos could turn their attention to late first-, second- or even potential third-round picks at the position.
Garrett Grayson (Colorado State) and Bryce Petty (Baylor) could be targeted by the Broncos in the late second or late third. Both players have developmental upside in the Gary Kubiak offense.
However, Denver might be tempted to add a veteran quarterback via trade.
Enter Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Mike Glennon. Originally a third-round pick by the Bucs in 2013, Glennon has plenty of experience over the last two years. He’s played in 19 games, and he's passed for 4,025 yards, 29 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.
Glennon was not selected by the current regime, and the Buccaneers could be targeting either Winston or Mariota with the first overall pick. With journeyman Josh McCown still under contract, the Bucs could be looking to deal Glennon.
The Kubiak system is a great fit for a player like Glennon. He’s athletic enough to keep plays alive with his feet while also keeping his eyes downfield. Glennon is tall (6’7”) and has a rocket arm. His skill set is quite similar to that of Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco—the quarterback who excelled under Kubiak in 2014.
Tampa has the second pick (34th) in the second round. Moving back six picks would not take that much compensation. The Broncos could add a nice young quarterback (with more experience than Brock Osweiler) and a pick to just move a small handful of spots.
With that high of a second-round pick, there’s little doubt that Denver could find a potentially impactful player.
Simply put, this would be a wise deal for Denver to accept if offered.
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