Which 2014 NBA Finalist Will Have Deeper Playoff Run, Heat or Spurs?
As the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat prepare to do battle for the first time this season on Friday, one can't help but infer that the mighty have fallen quite a ways since their Finals meetings in 2013 and 2014.
The former was dealt injuries to key contributors like Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard while the latter is famously missing four-time MVP LeBron James after his return to the Cleveland Cavaliers via free agency this summer.
Things have changed—and not in a good way.
Where Are They Now?
With both clubs clinging to seeds near the bottom of their respective playoff brackets, it's worth remembering that a lot can happen between now and the postseason. And virtually anything can happen once that postseason actually commences. At least, that has to be the mindset both of these locker rooms adopt in order to maintain anything resembling championship-caliber confidence.
The Spurs, however, have pretty good reason for confidence. Whereas the Heat took a legendary step back in the talent department, the reigning champions are—in every meaningful respect—still intact.
San Antonio can also take some solace in the fact that this roster is healthier than it was a month ago and is finally beginning to rediscover some of the rhythm that culminated in a historically lopsided showing against the Heat a season ago.
After a dismal 8-10 record in December, head coach Gregg Popovich's team recovered with a 10-4 January, perhaps setting a tone for the annually successful Rodeo Road Trip slated for this month. A little momentum could go a long way toward restoring this squad to an outfit capable of playoff dominance.
The Heat's situation is a bit more complicated.
The Search for a New South Beach Identity
LBJ is gone for good, and Luol Deng has barely managed to stop the bleeding. Head coach Erik Spoelstra's team is currently holding onto a playoff spot despite a sub-.500 record, positioning itself to qualify by default in an objectively weaker conference. The Spurs have a far more respectable record despite superior competition.
More troubling still is the fact that Miami is showing serious cracks in its once-invincible armor, including a number of uncharacteristically poor second-half performances. Chris Bosh talked about that, via the South Florida Sun Sentinel's Ira Winderman:
"I think it's to the point where it's just in our minds now. It's a mind thing, because it's not one thing. It's a culmination of different things over the course of a season.
You know, I think it's just messing with our heads now. And we're letting it get in there and just agitate us, and we end up in these same positions because our brain isn't right, collectively and individually.
"
Miami enters Friday's contest having lost four of its last five games, including Tuesday's almost unthinkable 108-91 loss to the lowly Detroit Pistons. Miami played without All-Star guard Dwyane Wade (hamstring), but Detroit is missing starting point guard Brandon Jennings. It was precisely the kind of game Spoelstra and Co. need in order to make up some ground in the standings.
Bosh did his part with 34 points—including 21 in the third quarter alone—but it wasn't enough after Miami spotted the Pistons a 21-point lead after the first frame.
"Know what that shows you?" Spoelstra told reporters after the game, "One of our guys can have a great game, and if we don't defend, we have no chance to win."
Wednesday's 102-101 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves may not be as cosmetically damaging, but it's yet another disappointment for a club that isn't getting stops against inferior competition.
Insofar as defending has as much to do with mental toughness as it does talent alone, perhaps there's something to Bosh's theory that this team's collective psyche isn't quite right.
The Spurs might be able to relate—at least to some degree. Though their confidence hasn't suffered from the loss of an icon, motivation may be slightly lacking after the franchise claimed its fifth title of the Duncan-Popovich era. To whatever extent mindsets impact performance, both of these organizations are surely hoping their veteran fortitude takes over when the time is right.
Despite his distaste for all things "psychobabble," even Popovich admitted in September that complacency was a legitimate concern for his guys.
But that risk pales in comparison to what the Heat are going through. Some have already taken to describing it as a lost season, like Winderman:
"Here's the rub: This team went to four consecutive NBA Finals, and whether it was because of LeBron James or more than that, that earns you a bye. In fact, that's what I think this season has turned into, the Heat's "bye" season, where the effort is not always there from those who have returned, the sharpness has not always been there from those who have had to make the decisions, the passion not there when the reality is something less than championship visions.
"
Admittedly, the discovery and emergence of 25-year-old center Hassan Whiteside is some reason for hope but probably not enough for another trip to the conference finals. Wade and Bosh remain a dangerous one-two combination, but this rotation has neither the depth nor pedigree to contend right now. And until it replaces James' playmaking ability—or some fraction thereof—life will be difficult for Miami.
Numbers Especially Unkind to Heat
The Heat ranked fourth in assist ratio a season ago, according to Hollinger Team Stats. Without LeBron, that rank has dropped to No. 15. And after ranking second in offensive efficiency with 109 points per 100 possessions last season, Miami now scores just 101.4 points per 100 possessions in the post-LBJ era—the league's 19th-best mark.
No one is especially surprised by the precipitous decline in offensive efficiency and production, but similar results on the defensive end have only made things worse.
| Season | PTS | +/- | AST | REB | FG% | Win % |
| 2010-11 | 102.1 | 7.5 | 20.0 | 42.1 | 48.1 | 70.7 |
| 2011-12 | 98.5 | 6.0 | 20.0 | 41.6 | 46.9 | 69.7 |
| 2012-13 | 102.9 | 7.9 | 23.0 | 38.6 | 49.6 | 80.5 |
| 2013-14 | 102.2 | 4.8 | 22.5 | 36.9 | 50.1 | 65.9 |
| 2014-15 | 92.6 | -3.7 | 19.9 | 38.0 | 45.6 | 42.9 |
The Spurs have had their problems, too, but the evidence still suggests some impressive two-way tendencies. Per Hollinger Stats, the 100.0 points per 100 possessions allowed ranks them fifth in defensive efficiency. So while injuries have curtailed a usually electric offense, San Antonio is still winning games with sound team defense and a steady three-point attack.
If Leonard and Parker are playing like All-Stars in April and May, count the Spurs among the elite ranks of Western Conference contenders that includes the Golden State Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies and perhaps the come-from-behind Oklahoma City Thunder.
The rest of San Antonio's formula isn't broken yet.
Miami, on the other hand, is damaged. A still-talented shell of its former self.
Though almost certainly capable of a first-round upset, it's awfully hard to imagine this Heat team doing the things it used to do. And it's sort of hard to imagine the Spurs doing anything but.
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