Oklahoma City Thunder Running out of Time, Excuses to Make 2015 Playoffs
All along, conventional wisdom has suggested the conjoined star power of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook—when healthy—would lift the Oklahoma City Thunder past hopeful construction projects in New Orleans and Phoenix.
“The record is going to take care of itself as long as we continue to play together and try to get some wins,” Westbrook said late last month, according to The Washington Post's Michael Lee. “We’re in a good spot. We’re confident as a team.”
Much to Westbrook's chagrin, the record simply isn't taking care of itself, and all fingers are pointed at an offense that performed woefully below expectations during a 7-7 month of January.
A year removed from bowling opponents over by scoring 108.1 points per 100 possessions, the Thunder have regressed well beyond the mean. Through 48 games, OKC's offensive rating ranks outside the top 20—struggling to churn out more than a single point per possession.
This isn't a problem that can be pinned on injuries anymore, either. Sure, Durant's missed three of the last four games with a toe ailment, but one of those contests was a loss against the lowly New York Knicks. Without Durant—heck, even without Westbrook—that should have been a decisive Thunder victory.
The other showdown sans Durant came against the similarly discombobulated Minnesota Timberwolves. In a winning effort, the Thunder still only managed to total 92 points versus the league's worst defense.
"Russell Westbrook returned in late November and has played every game since Thanksgiving," The Oklahoman's Anthony Slater wrote. "Kevin Durant has shuffled in and out of the lineup with different ailments but, in January, played in 12 of the Thunder’s 14 games. During that stretch, Oklahoma City went 6-6. Even when healthy, this has been a .500 team of late."
Combine those deficiencies with the following observation from Grantland's Zach Lowe, and the Thunder are perched in a very precarious spot:
According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Thunder need to post a winning percentage of .714 in order to win just 48 games:
To put that number in perspective, the Los Angeles Clippers are on pace to rattle off 56 victories and have recorded a winning percentage of .688 to date. And according to John Hollinger's playoff odds, the Thunder's static January has dropped their odds of qualifying for the playoffs to 29.8 percent with Scott Brooks' club projected to win a mere 43 games.
Not only are systemic flaws fueling Oklahoma City's surprising decline, but regression from the team's second unit also has placed a massive burden on Durant and Westbrook to try to dig the Thunder out of sizable holes on a nightly basis.
This year, Oklahoma City's tallying dimes on just over 53 percent of its buckets, but even Durant and Westbrook's creative musings haven't been able to mask issues like they did in the past.
One of the culprits is a second unit that's failed to meet expectations. "This isn't injuries. This isn't chemistry. This is, for the first time in five years, a regression by their supporting cast," CBS Sports' Matt Moore wrote.
To Moore's point, Oklahoma City's bench entered Monday night shooting 41.4 percent from the field and 30.6 percent from three, marks that rank 24th and 23rd overall, respectively, according to HoopsStats.com. Those figures represent significant declines from last year's totals:
| 2013-14 | 19.1 | 30.9 | 44.4 | 36.7 | +2.7 |
| 2014-15 | 19.6 | 33.4 | 41.4 | 30.6 | -0.3 |
Although the addition of Dion Waiters was supposed to patch up some perimeter holes, his volume scoring ways haven't served their intended purpose. The net differential in Oklahoma City's offensive efficiency is a wash when he's on the floor. It doesn't help that Reggie Jackson's shooting 43 percent from the field or that Anthony Morrow's knocking down a mere 41.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot jumpers, either.
Perhaps the most concerning trend that's emerged as a result of that lackluster bench production has been Oklahoma City's shoddy late-game offense.
To date, the Thunder have trailed entering the fourth quarter in 45 percent of their games. And when they're behind with just 12 minutes left to play, they've won just 14 percent of said contests, compiling a record of 3-18 in the process. The Los Angeles Lakers have as many wins under those same circumstances.
With the supporting cast providing little in the way of supplementary consistency, Oklahoma City's fourth-quarter offense has floundered with Durant and Westbrook trying to make up ground at warp speed.
Unfortunately, that methodology hasn't paid dividends, as the Thunder's fourth-quarter scoring margin ranks dead last among Western Conference teams. However, that's the price they pay for having two high-profile scorers account for more than 50 percent of the team's nightly scoring output.
In clutch situations (the last five minutes of a five-point game), the picture gets even muddier. As of Monday night, Oklahoma City's offensive rating of 90.7 was far and away the worst in the West, with the Utah Jazz nearly six points better in the 14th spot.
As always, the kerosene fueling that fire has been a lack of tactical creativity in late-game situations that's come to define Brooks' tenure with the Thunder. Under the tenets of a strategy that defers to the superstar in hero-or-zero moments, OKC's assist percentage has dipped to 42.3 in crunch time.
What those findings suggest is the team's maladies are far more complex than originally believed. Although the initial diagnosis justly revolved around Durant's absence, his return hasn't been able to quell concerns regarding a lack of cohesion.
Once considered Western Conference title contenders, the Thunder are sadly running out of excuses—and time—to prove they have what it takes to overcome a litany of offensive troubles.
All statistics current as of Feb. 2 and courtesy of NBA.com unless noted otherwise.
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