Houston Rockets Aren't Contenders Without Dwight Howard at Full Strength

For all the opinions Dwight Howard still inspires, with debate about the quality of his play still raging from talk radio to TNT, his value to the Houston Rockets remains unchanged and irrefutable.

The Rockets have improved in many ways around him. James Harden is playing at an MVP level. Depth has gone from wading pool-shallow to deep end with the acquisitions of Corey Brewer and Josh Smith and the return to health of Terrence Jones. There is much more defensive determination all around.

Howard, however, is the foundation. This team will go nowhere without him.

Yes, the Rockets can win games with Howard out. They are 10-4 in games Howard has missed this season. Eleven of those missed games were due to a strained right knee that now has developed edema, forcing Howard to meet with doctors to consider a course of action.

There is, however, a huge difference between winning games in the regular season and winning a playoff series. The Rockets know the difference better than most, having learned the hard way. In the past 17 seasons, the Rockets have a grand total of one playoff series victory.

More than ever, Houston's goal is to do more than just win games in January and get to the playoffs.

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

For now, the Rockets can get by. Howard stayed home this week while the Rockets headed on a road back-to-back to Boston and Detroit, but his absence could be much longer. He had knee issues in the preseason. He missed 11 games in November and December. He is talking about options with doctors in January.

Even if time off reduces the soreness and swelling, Houston can't be confident that Howard will remain healthy. There is every reason to believe that whether he opts for a procedure or not, the Rockets will have to carefully monitor and treat his troublesome knee to get him where they need him to be for the postseason.

Howard has been diminished by the knee issues and a smaller role in an offense otherwise driven by Harden’s scoring and playmaking and torrents of three-pointers. Yet, while Howard is so often compared to the force that he was in Orlando or to the player many still argue that he should be, the Rockets know they desperately need the player he has been this year. 

Howard is expected to be more of a scorer than he has been this season, averaging 16.3 points on 57.5 percent shooting. In 13 January games, he has averaged just 13.7 points on 53.9 percent shooting. His team, however, is more concerned with the other end of the floor.

The Rockets have been among the league’s best defensive teams all season long, and they depend on Howard to be there.

	Rockets Offensive Rtng	Defensive Rating	Net Rating
With Howard	108.3	100.8	+7.5
Without Howard	105.4	104.4	+1.0

Houston general manager Daryl Morey argued Howard should be the front-runner for Defensive Player of the Year and an All-Star. Morey obviously has his biases, but as always, he has numbers to back his arguments.

The Rockets are third in defensive rating, trailing the Golden State Warriors and the Milwaukee Bucks (by one-tenth of a point per 100 possessions), according to NBA.com. For all the defensive fury of Patrick Beverley, the tenacity of Trevor Ariza and the improvement of Harden, Howard's ability to own the lane is the most important piece of the Rockets defense.

Rockets data has Howard rated the top rim protector in the league by a wide margin, allowing just 86 points per 100 possessions when opponents are within five feet of the basket on drives. No other center has a defensive rating better than 93 in those situations.

Opponents shoot just 37 percent in the post against Howard, fourth among players who have defended 200 shots in the post after Rudy Gobert, Tim Duncan and Anthony Davis.

Though there seemed to be relatively little debate about Howard’s worthiness to be selected to the All-Star team, he leads all Western Conference centers in defensive rating according to NBA.com.

Howard, however, is expected to be more than the anchor of a defense—even a very good defense. He is expected to be another offensive weapon. He is one of those rare athletes burdened by his gifts; what he does is expected and often falls short of what seems possible.

Even Howard seems to feel that way. Last week in Phoenix, a day before he sprained his ankle and six days before doctors were looking over another MRI of his knee, Howard spoke of what he is capable of once healthy.

“My job is to dominate both ends of the floor,” Howard said. “I just have to continue to get healthy.

"I'm not all the way there, but when I get there, you'll know it."

Until then, the Rockets can be a good team. They play well defensively in most matchups. Harden has been sensational. They have developed a solid rotation.

None of that will be enough to win a Western Conference playoff series. While so many others debate Howard’s play, even his importance to a team that has won without him, the Rockets don’t kid themselves.

With Howard out again, the Rockets can be good in the regular season. But they won’t be great in the postseason without him.

Jonathan Feigen covers the Houston Rockets for Bleacher Report and the Houston Chronicle. All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.