How High Has John Wall Climbed Up the Point Guard Ladder This Season?
John Wall has been threatening the NBA's ruling party of point guards since he first joined the league in 2010, but never have there been fewer names left in front of him.
The recently named All-Star starter has forced his way into the MVP race. He might not be the front-runner, but it's impossible to ignore the credentials of the leading scorer and setup man of a team with a .674 winning percentage.
Wall masterfully balanced both roles during the Washington Wizards' 98-92 road win over the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday. In 36 minutes of action, he tallied 21 points (on 8-of-12 shooting), 13 assists, nine rebounds and three steals.
No one had produced a stat sheet like that all season, and only four plays had cleared those marks since 2010.
"He makes their team go," Cleveland Cavaliers point guard Kyrie Irving said of Wall, per ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin. "He's such a great point guard in our league and he just makes everybody better out there. And that's what separates him from all the guards."
Well, that's part of the separation. Even if Wall hadn't developed his gifts, he'd still stand out for his 6'4" frame and Olympic-sprinter speed. His physical gifts are almost unrivaled in this larger-than-life league, essentially giving him a head start in a race others aren't even running yet.
But that head start would have been squandered had Wall not augmented those natural tools with a cerebral approach that is quickly polishing his production.
He isn't a freak athlete trying to play basketball, he's a natural point guard with freakish athleticism. While he's capable of playing the game at a faster pace than most, it's his ability to see things develop several steps ahead that really makes him a special player.
"John Wall is fast-becoming one of the NBA's smartest assist men," Zach Lowe said in a Grantland video. "Wall is a hoops intellectual. He's operating one step ahead of defenses. He knows how they'll respond to every dribble and manipulates them to create the best possible shot for teammates."
Because of Wall's quickness, explosiveness and finishing ability around the rim, defenses have to respect the threat of his dribble penetration. He's shooting 55.6 percent on drives this season, the fourth-highest conversion rate among the 62 players averaging at least five drives per game.
If he can sniff out a lane to the basket, he'll be through it before the defense even knows how to react.
Flash back a few years, and the discussion of his offense might stop right here.
At the start of his career, slashing wasn't his go-to move—it was his only option. Shots within 10 feet of the basket accounted for 51 percent of his field-goal attempts as a rookie, then 56.5 percent the following year.
The "strategy" was good enough to net him 16.3 points a night over that stretch, but it made him an easier cover than he should have been. Defenses held him to 41.6 percent shooting and coaxed him into committing 3.8 turnovers.
But he's been expanding his arsenal ever since, fine-tuning his shooting form and developing a floater that has helped unlock his in-between game. This season, he's done a remarkable job of diversifying his shots: He takes 32.1 percent of his attempts from 10 feet and in, 14.8 percent from 10-to-16 feet, 35.1 percent from 16 feet to the three-point arc and 17.8 percent from distance.
Because defenders don't know where he wants to go, they can't get comfortable trying to force him into anything. His field-goal percentages from three-to-10 feet (50), 10-to-16 feet (47.9) and 16 feet to the three-point line (39) are all personal bests, and his success at the rim (65.2 percent) is the second-highest it's ever been.
If his speed and shooting success weren't enough, defenses also have to account for his razor-sharp handles. His collection of dribble moves seems to grow by the day, and the new "cut dribble" he's added officially puts defenses in a pick-your-poison scenario.
Wall can individually light up a defense so many different ways. He's a deadly scorer from anywhere inside the arc, whether ripping the net on a pull-up jumper, bullying his way to the free-throw line or destroying someone at the rim.
But that aspect of his game is merely the bait to lure defenses into his most lethal trip—his pristine passing.
After pacing the league with 721 total assists last season, Wall has somehow taken his distribution game to new heights. He leads the NBA with 10.2 assists per game and ranks second in secondary assists (2.0), free-throw assists (1.1) and points created by assists per game (23.8).
Wall plays the game like a giant chess match. Each move is part of a bigger series. As soon as the defense thinks it has him figured out, he'll combine his vision and creativity to cement the fact that no one knows exactly what's coming next.
It's absurd the kind of things he can do as a passer, though he naturally doesn't see it as such.
"It's just instincts," Wall said of his highlight deliveries, per Jorge Castillo of The Washington Post. "I don’t think about it."
That's where this conversation starts to get scary. The supercharged athlete is simplifying the game for himself, letting things come naturally and using his complete repertoire to elevate himself and his team.
"He’s the complete package as a point guard: he’s big, physical, fast, team-oriented, humble, and a pass-first professional with X-ray vision," wrote TruthAboutIt.net's John Converse Townsend.
Wall's balance between scoring and setting others up greatly thins the field of point guards around him. No guards have more double-doubles than Wall's 25, and he is tied with Stephen Curry for the most games with 20-plus points and 10-plus assists (10).
Wall makes everyone around him better, which is the essential task for both a floor general and a franchise face. You don't have to dig too deep to capture his impact.
Just look at Washington's efficiency numbers with and without Wall. This is a championship contender when he plays and a team bound for the lottery when he doesn't.
| On Court | 105.2 (11th) | 97.2 (T-1st) | Plus-7.9 (2nd) |
| Off Court | 99.7 (23rd) | 108.0 (T-28th) | Minus-8.3 (27th) |
| Overall | 103.8 (13th) | 100.0 (7th) | Plus-3.8 (10th) |
That's an MVP-caliber impact, and as such, Wall's MVP buzz is starting to grow.
But as is the case with that discussion, this one also features a few entries still above Wall.
The NBA point guard throne has changed hands this season, but the transaction didn't involve Wall. The longtime occupant Chris Paul did nothing to lose his chair (17.4 points, 9.8 assists against 2.2 turnovers), but it was still pulled out from underneath him by Curry.
It's a 1-1a situation with Curry and Paul (the first and third players in ESPN.com's wins above replacement, respectively), but Curry sits atop the rankings based on his performance (22.8 points, 8.2 assists) and that of his Golden State Warriors (highest winning percentage, first in defense, third on offense).
Wall isn't quite on that level. The advantage he has in assists is wiped out and then some by the shooting and efficiency edges Curry and Paul hold over him. Wall also sits far behind the others in turnovers (3.7 per game, 3.3 for Curry) and win shares per 48 minutes (.156, compared to Curry's .280 and Paul's .254).
But after those two, good luck finding a point guard who is clearly ahead of Wall.
Russell Westbrook fills more categories on the stat sheet, but he's also been a turnover machine. He's never had a field-goal percentage as high as Wall's 46.1, and Westbrook's has been on the decline for three straight seasons (42.4 in 2014-15).
Fellow All-Star starter Kyle Lowry and Portland Trail Blazers scoring guard Damian Lillard are close to Wall, but both are lagging well behind him in field-goal shooting and assists. Jeff Teague, Mike Conley and Tony Parker don't show as well in individual measures because they all come from such successful teams. Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo are searching for their pre-injury levels of production.
Wall isn't at the top of the food chain, but he's nipping at the heels of those who are. He's also only 24 years old, so there are reasons to believe he's still working toward his peak.
"I think he still has his best ahead of him," Wizards coach Randy Wittman said, per Basketball Insiders' Alex Kennedy. "He's really been understanding that there's nothing to rest on here."
That's the reason Wall has climbed as high as he has, the reason there's so little room left for him to go.
But these last few hurdles could be the hardest to clear. The margin for error is paper-thin at the top. The fact he's made it this far, though, suggests he might have the determination, discipline and drive to eventually finish the job.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and are accurate as of Jan. 27, 2015.
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