Skubal, Alcantara and the Top 10 Starting Pitchers on the Block at the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline
The starting pitching portion of Major League Baseball's 2025 trade deadline was unusually quiet. Merrill Kelly, Adrian Houser and a then-injured Shane Bieber were the biggest names on the move, and that isn't saying much.
But with Tarik Skubal highlighting a list of four former Cy Young winners who reasonably could be traded this summer, we may well be making up for lost time.
For each of our top 10 starting pitchers on the trade block, we've assigned an availability rating and a desirability rating, each on a scale from 0-10. The former is an estimate of how likely it is that the pitcher's current team would be open to a trade, while the latter is an estimate of how coveted the pitcher would be if he, in fact, lands on the trade block.
Pitchers are ranked in ascending order of their combined score on those two meters.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics are current through the start of play on Saturday.
The "If Team Goes Belly Up" Tier
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At the end of play on June 4 last year, the Minnesota Twins were 34-27, the St. Louis Cardinals were 33-27 and the San Francisco Giants were 34-28. All three had at least a 40 percent chance of making the postseason, per Baseball-Reference's playoff odds. Yet, all three were sellers by the time the trade deadline arrived.
With that in mind, here are a handful of pitchers who presumably wouldn't be on the trade block today, but who quickly could become staples of trade speculations if things unravel for their team.
Michael Soroka, Arizona Diamondbacks
Contract: $7M plus a $1M buyout of a mutual option for 2027
2026 Stats: 67.0 IP, 3.49 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 8.9 K/9
Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs
Contract: $22.025M
2026 Stats: 76.0 IP, 4.74 ERA, 4.94 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
Anthony Kay, Chicago White Sox
Contract: $5M in 2026, $5M in 2027, $2M buyout of a mutual option for 2028
2026 Stats: 61.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 5.49 FIP, 1.45 WHIP, 6.8 K/9
Jeffrey Springs, Athletics
Contract: $10.5M, $15M club option for 2027
2026 Stats: 70.0 IP, 4.37 ERA, 4.98 FIP, 1.24 WHIP, 7.7 K/9
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
Contract: $23M
2026 Stats: 75.0 IP, 3.36 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 8.9 K/9
Gausman is the clear crown jewel of that bunch. However, after making the World Series last year and doubling down with all sorts of new investments this past offseason, Toronto would have to really bottom out over the course of its next 50 games in order to admit defeat and embrace a fire sale. Still, we'll mention him here, just in case.
Beyond Gausman, Springs would presumably generate the most interest. His overall numbers aren't stellar, but there's a pretty serious Sutter Health Park inflation factor in play. Over the past two seasons with the A's, he has a 4.70 ERA at home, but a 3.69 mark on the road—as well as a 2.63 ERA in his four seasons prior to getting traded out of Tampa. The southpaw might even be a top-five arm on the block if the A's fade.
The "Impending Free Agent Who Used to Be Good" Tier
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Every summer, you can just about take it to the bank that there will be several deadline deals that elicit a "Well, if he can get back to pitching like he did two or three years ago..." response from baseball fans.
Each of these impending free agents should be available.
Will anyone take the flyer, though?
Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers ($20M)
Chris Bassitt, Baltimore Orioles ($18.5M)
Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros ($17.7M)
Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds ($12.75M)
Tyler Mahle, San Francisco Giants ($10M)
Zack Littell, Washington Nationals ($3M plus a $4M buyout of a mutual option)
Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles ($6.2M)
Rogers is the big one who easily could be a top five starting pitcher on the trade block if A) he starts to show signs of turning things around while B) the Orioles fall out of contention for a spot in the postseason despite his resurgence. Over his last seven starts, however, he has an 8.66 ERA and has looked nothing like the breakout star that he was one year ago.
Littell has gone in the opposite direction of Rogers, with a 1.96 ERA across his last four appearances after an opening six weeks of the season in which he looked destined to be designated for assignment at any moment. He still has an ERA north of 5.00 for the year, but he's so inexpensive compared to the likes of Flaherty and Bassitt that it's almost a given that someone would trade for him if the Nationals fade from their current .500 record.
Flaherty could become intriguing if he continues to keep the free passes under control, walking three batters across his last four starts compared to 29 in the first nine. Of Detroit's four impending free agent starting pitchers, though, he's at the bottom of the wish list.
The "If They REALLY Burn It Down" Tier
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Each of these five pitchers is signed through 2028 and pretty unlikely to get traded because of that.
But they each play for teams going nowhere fast who might be willing to embrace a serious fire sale.
Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals ($21.5M in 2026, $21.5M in 2027, $20M vesting option or $17M club option for 2028)
2026 Stats: 76.0 IP, 3.91 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 1.36 WHIP, 7.6 K/9
Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals ($18M in 2026, $14M in 2027, $14M club option in 2028)
2026 Stats: 81.0 IP, 3.44 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 7.4 K/9
Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants ($23M in 2026, $23M in 2027, $24M in 2028)
2026 Stats: 59.1 IP, 4.25 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 7.7 K/9
José Soriano, Los Angeles Angels ($2.9M in 2026, arbitration-eligible for 2027-28)
2026 Stats: 76.0 IP, 2.72 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 10.1 K/9
Framber Valdez, Detroit Tigers (Two months into a three-year, $115M contract; third season is a player option)
2026 Stats: 72.2 IP, 4.21 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 1.32 WHIP, 7.3 K/9
That player option probably makes Valdez just about untradeable, but we'll at least mention that he is part of what could be an "Everything Except Kevin McGonigle Must Go" type of situation in Detroit.
Webb getting traded out of San Francisco would be shocking. Then again, it was shocking when San Francisco traded for Rafael Devers and traded away Patrick Bailey. And the Giants are almost certainly headed for a fire sale.
Likewise, it's hard to imagine the Angels would part with Soriano amid his best season yet. If they wind up even remotely considering a Mike Trout trade, though, all bets are off.
Kansas City's duo of veterans is a legitimately intriguing possibility, though. Lugo turns 37 this winter while Wacha turns 35 in a few weeks, and Bobby Witt Jr.'s salary is about to increase from $13M this year to $19M in 2027 and $30M in 2028. This small-market, last-place club might be more than willing to turn the roughly $80M left on those older pitchers' contracts into a few quality prospects.
10. Tomoyuki Sugano, Colorado Rockies
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Contract: $5.1M, Free Agent this winter
2026 Stats: 63.1 IP, 3.98 ERA, 5.18 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 5.1 K/9
Availability Meter: 10 out of 10
For the umpteenth consecutive year, the Rockies are dead and dying. They are on pace for roughly 100 losses and would be dead last in the National League standings were it not for the marginally more lifeless Giants.
If someone wants to flip them a prospect for Sugano's expiring contract, there's no good reason for them to keep him for August and September. In fact, one could argue they signed Sugano, Jose Quintana (one year, $6M) and Michael Lorenzen (one year, $8M) with the express purpose of trading them for prospects if they amounted to anything for a few months.
Desirability Meter: 1.5 out of 10
In addition to the troubling 5.18 FIP noted above, Sugano has a downright horrifying expected ERA of 7.51 that ranks dead second-to-last among all pitchers who have logged at least 20 innings this season. He allows barrels at one of the highest rates in the league and doesn't get many strikeouts. That 3.98 ERA could turn mighty ugly in a hurry.
All the same, a Rockies pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA? Those don't grow on trees. Heck, there hasn't been a Rockies pitcher with at least 90 innings pitched and a sub-4.00 ERA since Jon Gray in 2019. And that prorated salary of $1.77M after the trade deadline will be a big plus for that inevitable team or two that is simply looking for a healthy arm to slot in at No. 4 or No. 5 in its depleted rotation.
9. Dustin May, St. Louis Cardinals
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Contract: $12M in 2026; $20M mutual option for 2027 with a $500,000 buyout
2026 Stats: 66.2 IP, 4.59 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 8.1 K/9
Availability Meter: 5.1 out of 10
At the moment, St. Louis is right in the thick of the NL wild card race and wouldn't be selling off anything. However, neither Baseball-Reference nor FanGraphs has had the Cardinals' playoff odds at higher than 33.7 percent at any point in this season.
Maybe they just kind of do nothing at the deadline, but selling still looks more likely than buying amid their rebuild. And if they're selling anything, it's almost certainly Dustin May and reliever JoJo Romero as darn near the only impending free agents on the roster.
Desirability Meter: 6.5 out of 10
The year-to-date ERA isn't great, but that largely stems from a disastrous start to the year in which he allowed 13 earned runs in his first two outings. Since then, May has a 3.19 ERA with quality starts in seven out of 10 appearances.
What's more, after striking out just 16 percent of batters faced in his first seven starts, May is up to 28 percent over the past month. And the four-seamer that hovered around 95.5 MPH last season? It has been consistently in the 97.0 range this year.
He's not quite the pre-injuries flamethrower he used to be, but he is as effective now as he has ever been. He's absolutely worth a $4M flyer (including that $500k buyout) if he's still healthy at the deadline.
8. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
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Contract: $13M in 2026; Free Agent this winter
2026 Stats: 3.2 IP, 12.27 ERA, 7.73 FIP, 2.18 WHIP, 2.5 K/9
Availability Meter: 8.2 out of 10
Despite the recent sweep of Tampa Bay and the sad state of the race for the American League's No. 6 seed, the Tigers still have a lot of work to do to get legitimately back into the mix for a spot in the postseason. And if that prolonged surge of wins doesn't come in the next few weeks, they might as well trim some payroll and try to bolster the farm system by selling off their stockpile of expiring assets.
That includes Justin Verlander, unless they're feeling too sentimental about parting with the long-lost son who returned after nearly a decade away. However, if they can save a few million bucks, trading him away for a second time shouldn't be a problem.
Desirability Meter: TBD
Verlander made just one brutal start before landing on the IL with a hip injury, marking the fourth consecutive season in which he has been on the shelf before Memorial Day. But he is nearing a return to the majors, hoping to recapture that 2.60 ERA form that he had over the final two-plus months of last season.
Even if he struggles for the next two months, though, if his body is still functioning in early August, you just know some team with a postseason pulse is going to want to take a flyer on Justin Freaking Verlander. Could even be a decent bidding war if he starts looking like he did in 2023 and 2025.
6. (tie) Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals
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Contract: $6.15M in 2026; Free Agent this winter
2026 Stats: 50.1 IP, 4.11 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 1.23 WHIP, 9.1 K/9
Availability Meter: 8.5 out of 10
As one of the five teams jostling for dead last in the overall standings, it is just about a foregone conclusion that the Royals will be sellers. And though we'll have to see whether that includes any of Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Cole Ragans or Vinnie Pasquantino who are signed through 2028, it all but certainly includes impending free agent Kris Bubic.
The only uncertainty here is whether they think he could be worth a qualifying offer. At any rate, that kept the Diamondbacks from trading away Zac Gallen amid their fire sale last summer. Even that wouldn't be a deal-breaker, though. It would just increase Kansas City's asking price.
Desirability Meter: TBD, but at least a 4.0 if somewhat healthy
Though injuries have limited his availability to just 213.0 innings pitched since the beginning of 2023, Bubic is one of just seven starting pitchers with at least 200 IP and both an ERA and FIP below 3.05 during that time. The others are Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Chris Sale, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Cristopher Sánchez. Pretty solid list there.
Alas, Bubic is on the IL yet again, out for the past three weeks with "left elbow soreness" and "general arm fatigue"—this after missing the final two months of last season with a rotator cuff strain.
If he can come back by the end of the month and get into a groove, though, look out. Let's not forget Bubic had a 1.43 ERA at this time last year, blossoming into an early Cy Young candidate and an eventual All-Star.
6. (tie) Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers
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Contract: $6.15M in 2026; Free Agent this winter
2026 Stats: 47.2 IP, 2.27 ERA, 2.42 FIP, 0.97 WHIP, 9.3 K/9
Availability Meter: 8.5 out of 10
A tie in a ranking like this probably seems ridiculous, but Casey Mize and Kris Bubic have the exact same contract status, have the exact same "can he stay healthy?" concerns and are currently on the IL for teams that are battling each other (and the Angels) for dead last in the American League standings.
ESPN's Buster Olney reported on Thursday morning, "Tigers are telling other teams: As of now, they're not selling." However, go ahead and file that one under "Well, yeah, no kidding, it's early June." Because if they had to make a decision today, it'd be a fire sale.
As we mentioned with Bubic, though, there is the X-factor of a possible qualifying offer for Mize. And considering Detroit is also slated to lose Skubal, Flaherty and Verlander to free agency this winter, it's probably a more legitimate option for the Tigers.
Desirability Meter: TBD, but at least a 4.0 if somewhat healthy
Mize is on the IL for the second time this season. He missed about three weeks with a groin/adductor strain, came back for three solid appearances and then went back on the shelf last week with the same issue.
When healthy, though, he has been stellar. Mize was an All-Star last year and would surely be trending in that direction again if he hadn't missed a handful of starts. He started Game 2 of the postseason for the Tigers this past October, and he could be a candidate for a similar role this fall—if the No. 1 overall pick from the 2018 draft can get and stay healthy.
5. Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants
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Contract: $25M in 2026; Free Agent this winter
2026 Stats: 67.2 IP, 4.12 ERA, 5.34 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, 8.4 K/9
Availability Meter: 9.8 out of 10
The Giants are 26-38 overall and already eight games back in the wild card race. They aren't dead yet, but they would have to go 30-18 from here just to get to .500 by the trade deadline. With the way this offense has been floundering until a huge surge over the past two games, good luck with that.
Meanwhile, Robbie Ray is in the final season of his five-year, $115M contract and would not be eligible for a qualifying offer even if San Francisco wanted to extend him one, having previously received one in 2021. He's definitely going to be available.
Desirability Meter: 3.7 out of 10
The past few weeks have not been kind to Ray, whose ERA has ballooned from 2.76 on Mother's Day to 4.12 today. He hasn't made it past the fifth inning in any of his past five starts, and it took him 96 pitches just to finish four innings last week in Colorado.
He was an All-Star in 2025, though, as well as a Cy Young winner in 2021. And though his swing-and-miss stuff pales in comparison to what it was five years ago, he's still striking out 22 percent of batters faced and is, at worst, an average middle-of-the-rotation pitcher.
Whether that's worth roughly $8M in prorated salary for two months (and the necessary prospects to make it worth San Francisco's while to move him) depends on the team in question. But Ray is going to generate some buzz, provided he doesn't continue getting lit up like he has over the past few weeks.
4. Freddy Peralta, New York Mets
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Contract: $8M in 2026; Free Agent this winter
2026 Stats: 72.0 IP, 3.63 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 1.32 WHIP, 9.3 K/9
Availability Meter: 4.5 out of 10
The big question right now with the last-place Mets is: Aside from Freddy Peralta, what could they realistically sell this summer? Maybe a couple of veteran relievers, but that's about it.
And after giving up two top prospects (Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat) to acquire Peralta in January, would they seriously turn around and trade him for what would probably be pennies on the dollar if it's not part of a grander fire sale?
A two-time All-Star making $8M as an impending free agent on a sub-.500 team would normally be the ultimate sweet spot for trade speculations. But the Mets may well just let it ride with Peralta—who is eligible for a qualifying offer, for what it's worth.
Desirability Meter: 9.7 out of 10
Peralta hasn't been quite as impressive as last year, already allowing as many home runs to left-handed hitters (eight) as he did in the entirety of 2025. But he has been lights out against righties and has overall numbers on par with his norms from the past half-decade.
And with a prorated salary of less than $2.5M after the trade deadline, the price is certainly right for even a team like the Guardians, Rays, Reds or Pirates to come calling about a pitcher who could be their Game 2 starter if they reach the postseason.
3. Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
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Contract: $6.2M in 2026; Arbitration-eligible in 2027
2026 Stats: 70.1 IP, 3.20 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 0.97 WHIP, 10.1 K/9
Availability Meter: 5.5 out of 10
When Minnesota burned it all down last summer—trading away more than 40 percent of its 26-man roster—it didn't part with the exceedingly affordable ace of its staff, Joe Ryan. For more than two years of his services, the Twins probably could have commanded a package on par with what the Padres gave up to get Mason Miller. But it didn't happen.
As they trend toward selling again, though, there's perhaps a better than 50/50 chance Ryan will be on the move this time around.
Would be kind of fun if the Twins traded him to Cincinnati, four years removed from that big 2022 deadline deal when they sent the Reds three prospects for Tyler Mahle with one year of arbitration eligibility remaining on his deal.
Desirability Meter: 9.9 out of 10
Joe Ryan is nothing if not consistent, working on a third consecutive season with an ERA of 3.20 to 3.60, a WHIP of 0.96 to 1.04 and a K/9 of almost exactly 10.0. Slightly more than 50 percent of his outings in those three seasons have been quality starts, and he pretty much always makes it through five innings.
He was an All-Star in 2025, it's looking likely he'll be one again this year and that extra year of arbitration eligibility further sweetens an already sugary pot.
If Minnesota is willing to entertain offers for Ryan, it will receive plenty of them.
2. Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
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Contract: $17.3M in 2026; $21M club option for 2027
2026 Stats: 82.1 IP, 4.59 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 6.2 K/9
Availability Meter: 7.5 out of 10
One of these years, the Marlins are actually going to trade away Sandy Alcantara, right?
It was a tough sell last summer when he entered the deadline with an ERA well north of 6.00. Even if Miami was willing to listen to offers for the 2022 NL Cy Young winner, no one was going to part with enough quality prospects to get two-plus years of Alcantara in that state.
Now that he is pitching better (3.88 ERA across his last 25 starts) and there's one less year left on his contract, though, it is exponentially more likely we see him on the move, provided the Marlins continue their sub-.500 ways.
Desirability Meter: 9.0 out of 10
As noted above, Alcantara's last 25 starts have gone a whole heck of a lot better than his first 19 outings back from Tommy John surgery. However, he has had some serious duds, allowing at least six earned runs four times already this season. He is also generating both whiffs and ground balls at the lowest rates of his career.
He's still a darn good pitcher, though, and the average velocity on his fastball is right on par with what it was pre-surgery.
He has made eight quality starts, including a complete-game shutout of the White Sox that looks more impressive now than it did two months ago. And even if he isn't quite the same ace that he was from 2019-22, that $21M club option for next season is an absolute steal compared to what he would go for in free agency.
1. Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
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Contract: $32M in 2026; Free Agent this winter
2026 Stats: 43.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 0.95 WHIP, 9.3 K/9
Availability Meter: 6.7 out of 10
To be clear, this 6.7 rating doesn't mean we think there's a 67 percent chance Tarik Skubal gets traded. We may eventually reach (and surpass) that point if the Tigers are unable to claw their way out of the chasm into which they've fallen by losing 38 of their first 60 games. But we're not there yet.
What it does mean is that it is feeling more likely than not that Detroit will at least entertain offers for Skubal—which definitively was not the case when people started speculating about a Skubal trade this past winter.
Whether those offers for two months of his services ever become enticing enough for the Tigers remains to be seen. But the trade buzz is getting palpable.
(Notably, if Skubal doesn't get traded, he is eligible for a qualifying offer which he would 100 percent decline. That means Detroit would essentially be forfeiting a compensatory draft pick if it trades him away. That will definitely factor into whether they deem an offer to be good enough.)
Desirability Meter: 11.0 out of 10
I mean, we're talking about a twice-reigning CY Young winner who has the highest pitching fWAR in the majors dating back to the start of 2023, despite missing the first half of that season and the past five weeks of the current campaign.
Even though he's working his way back from elbow surgery, even though it's just for a couple of months and even though the prorated salary is darn near $10M, it doesn't get more desirable than this superstar who has made six starts with a 2.04 ERA across the past two Octobers.
Skubal getting traded could alter post-deadline World Series odds like nothing we've seen before. (Unless he gets traded to the Dodgers, in which case we further brace ourselves for the impending lockout.)
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