5 Bold Predictions for the Detroit Tigers in 2015
The past week heralded what most Detroit Tigers’ fans suspected—Max Scherzer will not be returning in 2015. If nothing else, this provides the team with closure and a settled roster for the upcoming season.
Even without their incumbent pitching ace, Detroit still boasts a formidable squad. With a strong nucleus of players, including two-time American League Most Valuable Player Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Justin Verlander, they figure to be front-runners again in a tighter AL Central.
While the Tigers offense should remain potent, a weakened starting rotation will be a big talking point this year. There will be increased business activity around midseason if their quintet struggles. The bullpen will be heavily scrutinized as well.
Some late winter dealings could still implicate on the team before spring training begins. But, as things stand, here are some daring prognostications for Detroit’s season ahead.
Detroit Will Lead the Majors in Offense
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The Tigers have not paced the majors in runs since 1993.
They have come close in recent years—finishing second in 2013 and 2014. As good as this offensive juggernaut has been, it should be even better next season.
Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez and Yoenis Cespedes project to be hitters No. 3 through No. 6 in their vaunted lineup. No other team—not even the revamped Boston Red Sox—look that scary on paper.
Additionally, second-year third baseman Nick Castellanos should see an upswing in his numbers, and Jose Iglesias will deliver more from the shortstop position, which ranked second-last in the American League in hitting last year (.226).
Any anticipated drop-offs should only be minor. Platoon centerfielders Anthony Gose and Rajai Davis may fall short of Austin Jackson’s productivity, and Victor Martinez is unlikely to duplicate his career-best 2014 season.
When you consider the team’s pitching, Detroit’s offense will need to be more prolific in 2015. Without Scherzer spearheading their pitching staff, and newcomer Alfredo Simon probably unable to match Drew Smyly as fifth starter, the offense will be forced to dig the team out of more holes than in the past.
J.D. Martinez Will Make His First All-Star Team
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Martinez was one of baseball’s best stories in 2014. Starting the season in the minors, he blasted his way back to the majors in late April and didn’t look back. His offensive stats were very impressive: .315, 23 HR, 76 RBI (123 games).
Particularly eye-popping were his numbers in clutch situations. Martinez hit nine of his big flies in the ninth inning, including some that tied or won games for the club. The 27-year-old did not stop barrelling up in the postseason. He went deep in two of the three games and also contributed five RBI.
Martinez is not just a one-dimensional hitter, either. Tigers manager Brad Ausmus spoke last year about his ability to use all of the field, per Chris Iott of Mlive: "He's right up there with Miggy (Cabrera) in the power department, in terms of being able to hit the ball out to all fields. If he gets a hold of it, it'll fly."
Martinez will be the Tigers’ starting right-fielder in 2015. If the former Astro continues on his upward curve, he may soon become an elite 30 HR-100 RBI producer in Detroit's lineup.
Getting himself voted on to the AL All-Star squad will be no easy task. Among the names vying for the six outfield spots are Mike Trout, Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Bautista, Michael Brantley, Lorenzo Cain and his Tigers teammate, Cespedes. Martinez will prove that he’s not out of place in that company in 2015.
Joe Nathan Will Be Axed as Team Closer
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After investing $20 million in Nathan last offseason—according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Tigers are lumped with the veteran closer for one more season.
Nathan suffered a massive dip in his performance level in 2014. After a superb 2013 season with Texas (1.39 ERA, 43 of 46 saves), his ERA more than tripled (4.81) and his tally of blown saves more than doubled (7).
Detroit will give Nathan first shot as team stopper this year in the hope that he can re-find his groove. But, at 40 years old, he may now be in terminal decline.
Detroit has plenty of irons in the fire if Nathan is ineffective. In fact, the Tigers have two other closers on their books who have recorded triple-digits in careers saves—Joakim Soria (178) and Joel Hanrahan (100). Additionally, closer-of-the-future, Bruce Rondon, is set to return to the fold after recovering from Tommy John surgery.
If Nathan’s ERA is hovering around 5.00 again by the end of April, look for Detroit to cut its losses and put a Plan B into effect.
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Detroit Will Make a Pre-Deadline Trade for a Starter
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Detroit began last year’s campaign with the deepest starting rotation in baseball. From one to five, they could expect a quality start (or better) every outing. It is no surprise that this group led the AL in wins (68) and innings (1007), and were second in FIP (3.38).
Heading into the 2015 season, it appears that they no longer have this luxury.
While the Tigers will expect much the same from David Price (acquired last July), Verlander and Anibal Sanchez, their new fourth and fifth starters (Shane Greene and Simon) are both X-factors.
Should things not pan out by midseason, expect Tigers president/general manager Dave Dombrowski to make a move or two.
Which direction will he look? Perhaps just a bit south of the Motor City.
Johnny Cueto will be part of a Cincinnati squad that is likely to struggle in the improved NL Central this year. As he will be a free agent at season’s end, the Reds may look to get something back for their ace. This may compel the Tigers to pursue him.
Other 2016 free agents that are potential targets include Bud Norris, Scott Kazmir, Kyle Lohse and Ian Kennedy, whose teams may be looking to shop them around if they look like missing the playoffs.
Detroit Will Win the American League Central Division
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Given that Detroit has won four straight division crowns, this prediction may not appear to be too bold. But, given the events of this offseason, life is going to be much tougher now in the Central. ESPN's Buster Olney recently suggested that this division is now the best in baseball.
Only Minnesota appears to be the also-rans in this division race. That leaves four genuine contenders to battle it out.
Kansas City proved last season that it is the real deal. Even without James Shields, Nori Aoki and Billy Butler, the likes of Yordano Ventura, Cain and the Royals' deadly bullpen will still make them a handful. On the back of consecutive winning seasons, Cleveland could take an extra step this year. Brandon Moss provides the Indians with the cleanup hitter that they coveted, and young starters Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco may be on the verge of stardom.
Then there’s Chicago. The White Sox have arguably had the best winter of any team in baseball. Their acquisitions of Jeff Samardzija, Adam Laroche, Zach Duke and Melky Cabrera also put them right in the mix.
So, what gives Detroit the edge?
The Tigers still have the best squad overall and a wealth of experience at finishing on top. They have proven winners, such as Cabrera, Price and Verlander, who know how to get the job done. That, coupled with a shrewd GM, should enable them to achieve a fifth straight division title.
This will be no small feat for Detroit considering that only four teams have achieved this since the beginning of the six-division alignment: Atlanta Braves (1995-2005), Cleveland Indians (1995-1999), New York Yankees (1998-2006) and Philadelphia Phillies (2007-2011).
Unless otherwise stated, all stats in this article are courtesy of FanGraphs
If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter: @jdunc1979
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