2015 Colts Free Agency: An Early Guide to the Market
With the Indianapolis Colts season officially complete, it's time to start looking ahead.
First up is the free-agency period, which will begin on March 10. Teams can, however, begin contacting upcoming free agents and negotiating on March 7.
With a number of holes on both sides of the ball, the Colts will be active in free agency once again this season. The team is projected to have around $30 million in cap room, per Spotrac, with more room available if certain veterans are cut.
It's sure to be an interesting period for the Colts. The team's recent free-agent spending under Ryan Grigson has resulted both in success (Cory Redding, Darius Butler and Mike Adams) and costly failures (LaRon Landry, Samson Satele, Mike McGlynn and Donald Thomas).
For Grigson to get his team closer to contending for a Super Bowl, they'll need to nail this free agency, especially with upcoming contracts for players like Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton.
Running Back
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Potential Targets: Frank Gore, Ahmad Bradshaw, Ryan Mathews, Stevan Ridley, C.J. Spiller
Pipe Dream: Mark Ingram
With Trent Richardson a potential candidate for release and Ahmad Bradshaw's contract up, the Colts may be looking to add a veteran to the young, unimpressive duo of Dan Herron and Zurlon Tipton in 2015. The team may opt to draft a running back as well. If they do sign a back, it would be to a shorter, cheaper contract to be a part of a running back committee.
While Bradshaw may be an option to come back, his injury problems could keep him from returning to Indianapolis. Ryan Mathews is a big-time talent but injury issues will likely keep his cost down, as they may with C.J. Spiller, who would be an explosive addition to the Colts' passing attack.
Stevan Ridley and Frank Gore are more between-the-tackles runners, both with their own injury issues. Gore has a better history but more wear on the tires. He hinted that he may want to join Indianapolis this offseason, according to The Sacramento Bee's Matt Barrows.
The pipe dream would be Mark Ingram, who had a breakout year in New Orleans. Ingram could take the lion's share of the duties in Indianapolis and give the team a younger, more explosive piece. Given his potential, he may require more money than some of the older veterans on this list.
Wide Receiver
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Potential Targets: Hakeem Nicks, Eddie Royal, Jarrett Boykin, Denarius Moore
Pipe Dream: Torrey Smith
With Hakeem Nicks and Reggie Wayne both entering free agency, the Colts will likely be looking to add a veteran complementary wide receiver for the fourth consecutive year.
Nicks is certainly an option to return, especially given his surge late in the season. Another offseason with Andrew Luck certainly couldn't hurt.
Eddie Royal and Denarius Moore both have big-time potential as second receivers next to T.Y. Hilton. Jarrett Boykin could be a nice addition to give the Colts a possession receiver in the slot as Wayne's likely retirement looms.
The pipe dream would be Torrey Smith, who would give the vertically-focused Colts another big-time threat on the outside. This would allow T.Y. Hilton to see more open field (and more movement into the slot in three-receiver sets), and it would save the Colts from forcing Donte Moncrief into a starting role he's not ready for just yet.
Offensive Line
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Potential Targets: Joe Reitz, A.Q. Shipley, Rob Sims, Michael Roos, James Carpenter
Pipe Dream: Orlando Franklin
While the offensive line isn't as big a need as it was in recent years, the Colts still need to add depth across the board.
Re-signing Joe Reitz and A.Q. Shipley (RFA) has to be priority one. Both players are versatile and know the Colts scheme and locker room well. Both have shined when asked to take starting roles but have been patient enough to play their part as reserves as well.
Rob Sims and Michael Roos are both on the wrong side of 30, and could give the Colts some much-needed veteran presence, especially if Gosder Cherilus' injuries continue to pile up. James Carpenter has struggled at times in Seattle, but his ability to slide out to tackle would give the Colts needed depth across the line.
The pipe dream here would be Orlando Franklin, who has been a stud for Peyton Manning and the Broncos for the last three years. Pro Football Focus lists him as the best guard in free agency this season, largely because of his ability to both pass and run block effectively. Bringing a guy like him in would cost significant money, but it would shore up the guard position along with Jack Mewhort, something the Colts haven't had in years.
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Defensive Line
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Potential Targets: Dan Williams, B.J. Raji, Leger Douzable, Kenrick Ellis
Pipe Dream: Nick Fairley
The Colts desperately need help on the interior line, especially with Cory Redding hitting free agency. Redding has been the Colts' best defensive lineman for the past three seasons, proving to be a fantastic pickup. With his age, he may opt for retirement, but if he does want to play one or two more years, Grigson would certainly consider bringing him back on a short, cheap contract.
Dan Williams had a very good year in Arizona as a nose tackle this year, racking up a plus-11.7 grade from Pro Football Focus in run defense. Given Josh Chapman's struggles over the last two years, the Colts may want to consider moving to a veteran run-stuffer on the inside like Williams or Raji.
Leger Douzable and Kenrick Ellis combined for 470 combined snaps in the New York Jets defense this season, according to Pro Football Focus, racking up a positive-7.0 combined run defense grade. Neither player adds much in pass rush, but the Colts need all the help they can get in the way of defensive line depth.
The pipe dream would be Nick Fairley, who has the talent to be a big-time interior presence in both run and passing downs. However, Fairley has played in Detroit's 4-3 for the last four years, and he would need to be willing and able to switch to a 3-4. But the Colts desperately need somebody with his ability to penetrate, scheme be damned.
Linebacker
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Potential Targets: Jerrell Freeman, Brandon Spikes, Jason Trusnik, Akeem Dent
Pipe Dream: None
It's a rather weak group of inside linebackers this year, and the Colts may be most inclined to re-sign Jerrell Freeman, then draft a linebacker to develop behind Freeman and D'Qwell Jackson. Josh McNary didn't develop nearly as well as intended this season, and Andrew Jackson is a long shot at best.
If the Colts do want to look to free agency for linebacker help, Brandon Spikes would be a run-stuffer unlike anything the Colts have had in years. He's not great in coverage, however, which the Colts desperately need to upgrade at the inside linebacker position.
If the Colts are just looking for depth, Jason Trusnik and Akeem Dent are more rotational guys. Dent makes the most sense, given his experience in the 3-4 in Houston and ability to rush the passer from the inside (positive-2.4 pass rush grade from Pro Football Focus in 2014).
Cornerback
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Potential Targets: Darius Butler, Danny Gorrer, Davon House, Walter Thurmond, Kyle Wilson
Pipe Dream: Kareem Jackson
With Darius Butler and Josh Gordy both entering free agency, the Colts could be left with Vontae Davis and Greg Toler as the only returning cornerbacks with significant experience in 2015.
Butler seems to be a no-brainer re-signing, given his fit in the locker room and solid work in the slot over the last two seasons.
But the Colts still need depth, and both Toler and Butler could be upgraded if the Colts deem fit. Danny Gorrer and Davon House are young depth corners from Baltimore and Green Bay, respectively, and they would be able to slide into the Colts' scheme fairly easily.
Kyle Wilson would be a slot specialist from the Jets who has had significant success. He finished in the top 15 in all of Pro Football Focus' coverage stats (snaps per target, snaps per receptions, yards allowed per snap) for slot corners this season. Walter Thurmond was forced to sit much of 2014 out with a torn pectoral, but he was the Seahawks' designated slot cornerback last season.
The pipe dream would be current Texan Kareem Jackson, who can play in the slot and outside. This would give the Colts more flexibility with Greg Toler, who could be cut to save about $5 million this season. However, the Colts seem happy with Toler opposite Vontae Davis, and paying for all three cornerbacks next season seems extremely unlikely, although it would be extremely formidable.
Safety
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Potential Targets: Mike Adams, Jim Leonhard, Kendrick Lewis, Rahim Moore
Pipe Dream: Devin McCourty
The Colts signed veteran Mike Adams to a one-year deal last season, and the 34-year-old rewarded them with a Pro Bowl season. If he wants to play more, I see no reason not to sign him to a short-term deal. He's a strong veteran presence in the secondary with good instincts.
If the Colts choose to go to free agency to replace his partner, LaRon Landry (who could be cut to save just under $3 million), there are several available options.
Jim Leonhard is the veteran option, a 32-year-old free safety from Cleveland. Kendrick Lewis and Rahim Moore are younger, but they have surrendered their share of big plays. Lewis was the one who got burned by T.Y. Hilton in the Colts' miraculous comeback win over Kansas City in the 2013 playoffs and then was a part of the Texans defense that let Hilton go off for 223 yards in Week 6 of this year. Moore went down in infamy in the 2012 playoffs by allowing the Ravens' Jacoby Jones to haul in the game-tying 70-yard score that sent the game to overtime in an eventual upset over the Denver Broncos.
But both young safeties have been solid starters, overall, in recent years.
The pipe dream, however, would be Devin McCourty, who has become one of the league's best coverage safeties over the last three seasons. If New England lets McCourty test the waters of free agency, the offers will be high. But for the Colts, who need young, playmaking talent on the defense, it just might be worth it.
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