New York Giants Free Agents: What Will It Take to Keep Key Giants?
The New York Giants are set to have 19 unrestricted free agents this winter, according to Over The Cap, the list of which is below:
Player | Pos | Type |
|---|---|---|
Adam Snyder | G | UFA |
Antrel Rolle | S | UFA |
Chris Ogbonnaya | RB | UFA |
Chykie Brown | CB | UFA |
Daniel Fells | TE | UFA |
Henry Hynoski | RB | UFA |
Jacquian Williams | OLB | UFA |
James Brewer | RT | UFA |
Jason Pierre-Paul | DE | UFA |
Jerrel Jernigan | WR | UFA |
John Jerry | G | UFA |
Kevin Ogletree | WR | UFA |
Mark Herzlich | LB | UFA |
Mike Patterson | DT | UFA |
Quintin Demps | S | UFA |
Spencer Paysinger | LB | UFA |
Stevie Brown | S | UFA |
Walter Thurmond | CB | UFA |
Zack Bowman | CB | UFA |
Not all of these UFAs will be back, as the Giants will likely look to upgrade at certain spots. However, eight members of this list would appear to fit in with what the Giants might be planning to do in 2015.
Who are those players and what kind of money might it take to bring them back in Giants blue? Read on to find out.
DE Jason Pierre-Paul
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If the Giants defense has any true aspirations of improving, it has to get its pass rush going again—and not just against teams that have patchwork or subpar offensive lines.
Defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul needs to be a part of that, plain and simple, and not just because the depth at defense end is a deep concern given the looming departure of Mathias Kiwanuka, the inability of Damontre Moore to blossom into an every-down player, the versatility of Robert Ayers Jr. and the inexperience of the promising Kerry Wynn.
Let’s first look at Pierre-Paul the pass-rusher. Per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Pierre-Paul was involved in 548 pass-rushing snaps, 484 of those coming from the right side which meant he was up against the opponent’s left tackle.
At that spot, Pierre-Paul recorded 11 of his 12.5 sacks or at least one–half a sack per ever 44 snaps from that side and 51 of his 60 total pressures from that side.
Now let’s look at Pierre-Paul the run-stopper. Based on a list of 4-3 defensive ends that played in at least 75 percent of their team’s defensive snaps, Pierre-Paul’s 31 stops (for zero or negative yardage) are second behind Atlanta’s Kroy Biermann (38). However, Pierre-Paul’s seven missed tackles also lead that group of 11 players.
The final analysis is that Pierre-Paul is that 8.4 percent of his snaps resulted in a run stop, third behind Biermann and Jared Allen of the Bears.
There is one additional factor that needs to be discussed, and that is Pierre-Paul’s health. As Bleacher Report analyst Chris Simms noted in this Team Stream video, Pierre-Paul has had a history of back and shoulder issues that have dented his play.
The 2014 season was the team’s first glance at what a relatively healthy Pierre-Paul could bring to the table, and while he was productive and the best defensive player on the Giants’ 29th-ranked unit, that kind of production probably doesn’t warrant a megadeal.
Still, Pierre-Paul is 26 years old and has a lot of football left in him, his best years perhaps still to come. While it’s tempting to let him walk and start from scratch with a rookie given how high the Giants pick in this year’s draft, with New York in a win-or-else mode for 2014, it would behoove them to try to find a way to keep their top players, of which Pierre-Paul is one.
The Numbers
Given Pierre-Paul’s production, he is probably looking at a contract that will average slightly less than the $14.2 million per year that St. Louis Rams defensive end Robert Quinn is receiving. (The total value of Quinn’s contract is $57 million of which $15.6 million is fully guaranteed.)
Pierre-Paul could be looking at a six-year deal worth around $60 million, with $20 million guaranteed.
Of course getting to that point might take some time, which is why it would not be surprising if the Giants use the franchise tag on Pierre-Paul if the two sides can’t come to an agreement prior to the start of free agency.
FB Henry Hynoski
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Although fullback Henry Hynoski saw his snap counts drop dramatically—per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), he had 428 snaps (41.4 percent) in 2012, his last full season, versus 209 (18.1 percent) this year—he still has value to the Giants offense in 2015.
Based on what we saw from offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, it appears that he favors lining the tight ends up out of the backfield to take on most of the lead-blocking assignments previously handled by a traditional fullback.
However, none of Larry Donnell, Daniel Fells or Adrien Robinson fully distinguished himself as a consistent lead blocker, Fells being the best of the bunch, per PFF, with a 3.9 run-blocking grade.
Interestingly, Hynoski, who in the past has shown himself to have good hands out of the backfield, was not targeted in the passing game this year, but he was used to carry the ball, particularly on short-yardage situations, where four of his seven rushing attempts this year went for first downs, per ESPN.
So why bring Hynoski back? Besides the tight ends still being a work-in-progress, the same can be said of the offensive line, which enters the second year of its rebuild phase.
Per Football Outsiders, the Giants' offensive line finished 22nd in the league in the run-blocking department.
Hynoski, who has always been a solid run-blocker, was the second-best fullback in that area (4.1 grade), behind Anthony Sherman of Kansas City, per PFF.
The Numbers
Hynoski’s long-term future with the Giants could very well be tied into the continued development of the offensive line and tight ends, the personnel of which figure to ultimately take on some more of the fullback’s role.
A three-year deal averaging $1.33 million per year, with $1 million guaranteed might be the smart way to go with Hynoski, assuming the contract is structured to include roster bonuses in years two and three and Pro Bowl incentives.
LB Mark Herzlich
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This season, linebacker Mark Herzlich quietly had his best season as a pro, recording career highs in tackles (52), sacks (1.0) and passes defensed (two) while earning eight starts, all at strong-side linebacker.
Herzlich’s strength has long been an area that was a weakness for the Giants this season: playing run defense. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Herzlich’s 11.4 grade in run defense was the third-best on the team, behind defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins and defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul.
What made the difference for Herzlich, whose struggles in the early part of 2013 in the middle led to the Jon Beason trade with Carolina? A move to outside linebacker, where Herzlich had less ground to cover and where his quick diagnosis of the play helped him get in the vicinity of the ball-carrier.
With all that said, Herzlich remained a liability in coverage, where his lack of ideal foot speed oftentimes left him in trail mode or got him to plays that were already well down the field.
Per PFF, Herzlich was targeted in coverage 15 times, allowing 15 completions for 211 yards, 144 of which came after the catch, and giving up two touchdowns for a 158.3 NFL rating.
On special teams, where Herzlich has traditionally made his mark, his play dropped off a bit, this possibly due to his being needed on defense. He earned a minus-3.5 grade from PFF in this area, his lowest overall grade on specials in his career.
So why should Herzlich be re-signed? Besides special teams, where it is hard to find quality players, his versatility and knowledge of all three linebacker positions gives the Giants a three-for-one deal as well as a player with an advanced knowledge of the defense as far as reserve depth on a unit that is likely to undergo a significant makeover this offseason.
The Numbers
Herzlich’s skill set and versatility will likely bring him a two-year contract that averages out to about $1.5 million per year. His deal could also include a per-game roster bonus for every game he is active, especially if the Giants, as is anticipated, draft a linebacker and seek to add depth from the outside via free agency.
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OL Adam Snyder
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Unless the Giants make a blockbuster trade, they’re unlikely to get any additional draft picks beyond the eight they’re due to have this year—their own seven plus the extra seventh-round pick they’re getting from Denver as part of the Brandon McManus trade.
For those keeping score, that's eight picks to potentially address two spots on the offensive line, safety, outside linebacker, inside linebacker, defensive end, defensive tackle, tight end, running back and wide receiver.
Let’s look at the offensive line, specifically the depth.
James Brewer, a 2011 fourth-round pick, is an unrestricted free agent who is unlikely to be back. Brandon Mosley, a 2012 fourth-round draft pick, spent most of 2014 as a healthy scratch, seeing action in just eight games this season and 21 over the course of his NFL career.
With Brewer and John Jerry, another unrestricted free agent who might not be back, likely out of the picture and given Mosley’s experience, who then is the backup offensive tackle on the current roster?
The answer is the Giants don’t really have a backup offensive tackle, unless Geoff Schwartz, penciled in to play guard as of this writing, is pressed into emergency duty.
One way to resolve that lack of veteran depth would be to re-sign veteran Adam Snyder, whom the Giants signed on September 3, 2014, after Schwartz was placed on injured reserve/designated to return with a toe ailment.
Snyder, who was promoted to the starting lineup in Week 12 against Dallas, had his first year with the Giants cut short due to a season-ending knee injury.
However, if his rehab is on schedule, there is no reason to not bring him back while the coaching staff develops the younger talent.
The Numbers
The Giants should be able to re-sign Snyder, a guard/tackle, to a one-year minimum qualifying offer with no more than $65,000 in bonuses.
The advantage of such a deal is that any player with more than two years of NFL experience—Snyder has 11—will have his base salary count for the equivalent of a second-year player’s salary ($585,000 in 2015, according to Article 26, Section 1: Minimum Salaries of the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement) plus the signing bonus for cap purposes.
In other words, although a player of Snyder’s experience would draw a minimum salary of $970,000, assuming he received $65,000 in bonuses to go along with that one-year minimum qualifying offer, his 2015 cap figure would not be $1.035 million but rather $650,000.
TE Daniel Fells
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Tight end Daniel Fells turned out to be a pleasant surprise for the Giants considering he was out of football in 2013.
Fells finished with 16 receptions for 188 yards and a career-high four touchdowns. He was also a steady run-blocker, in fact the best of the three Giants tight ends, as evidenced by his 3.9 run-blocking grade from Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
The drawback with Fells is that he will be 32 years old on his next birthday; while not ancient, he is also not ideal for an offense that is looking to build toward the future.
Still, a player like Fells offers a great deal of value, thanks to his quiet workmanlike approach to doing business, his ability to tutor the less experienced Larry Donnell and Adrien Robinson in their craft and his ability to bring something to the offense.
Might the Giants draft a tight end and move on from Fells? That’s always a possibility as is signing a free agent.
As of right now, the tight end draft class doesn’t appear to be as strong as last year’s class was—and remember the Giants passed on taking a tight end last year, despite having the opportunity to do so.
As for signing a veteran, if Donnell and Robinson are the projected future at the position, it doesn’t make sense to shell out a big contract for another veteran when Fells not only has a year of experience with the Giants playbook, he also proved himself to be more-than-serviceable.
The Numbers
Fells is another candidate who qualifies for a one-year minimum-qualifying offer with no more than $65,000 in bonuses.
His true base salary in such a deal would be $870,000, per Article 26, Section 1: Minimum Salaries of the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement.
Again, though, if his total bonuses don’t exceed $65,000, Fells’ 2015 cap figure would be $650,000.
CB Walter Thurmond III
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When one reflects on the Giants’ 2014 injury situation, one of biggest disappointments was cornerback Walter Thurmond III, the highly talented slot cornerback who lasted just under two games for New York before losing the rest of his season to a torn pectoral muscle.
Unfortunately, the injury wasn’t the first to cost Thurmond games. His lengthy injury history, according to KFFL, began with a leg injury that cost him 14 games.
He then started the 2012 season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, losing six games to a foot problem before returning for two games until a hamstring injury cost him six games.
When healthy, Thurmond is more than just a serviceable slot cornerback. In 2013, when he was a member of the Super Bowl-champion Seattle Seahawks, the 27-year-old Thurmond finished with a 74.9 NFL rating in coverage, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
If Thurmond returns to join a healthy Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamara as the team’s top-three cornerbacks, they will play a big role in that plan.
The Numbers
The good news is that Thurmond told Nick Powell of NJ Advanced Media that he wouldn’t mind re-signing with the Giants.
The question is, will Thurmond, who last year, per Over The Cap, signed a one-year, $3 million contract, be willing to accept a deal that is likely to average less than the $3 million per year he received on his prior contract?
If the Giants really like him enough to have him as part of the Amukamara-Rodgers-Cromartie defensive backfield, a three-year deal averaging $1.7 million per year and which includes roster bonuses in years two and three might be the way to go.
S Stevie Brown
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Safety Stevie Brown might not have looked anything like the ball hawk he was in 2012, when he led the Giants with eight interceptions.
And yes, Brown, at one point in the season lost his starting job to Quintin Demps, the latter of whom ultimately played himself out of the starting lineup, thereby paving the way for Brown’s return.
So why even consider re-signing him? Because Brown, the team’s free safety, was one year removed from ACL surgery, a process that saw him lose a bit of the speed he showed in 2012 when he oftentimes got himself into position to make more plays.
That brings the discussion to the Giants' safety situation, where in addition to Brown and Demps, Antrel Rolle is also set to be an unrestricted free agent, leaving a pair of relatively unexperienced players, Nat Berhe and Cooper Taylor, as the safeties.
The Giants will almost certainly look to upgrade this position, and free agency might just be the way to go. If the Giants can sign a young riser such as New England’s Devin McCourty, who, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required) had an 84.7 NFL rating in coverage in the 2014 regular season, that would potentially eliminate the need to re-sign Rolle.
Regardless of whether the Giants re-sign Rolle or bring in another veteran, the fact remains that the youthful inexperience at the other safety position cannot be ignored.
Brown’s experience in Perry Fewell’s defenses could very well be the factor that tips the scales back in his favor as far as a return.
The Numbers
It probably makes sense to give Brown, who, per Over The Cap, signed a one-year contract paying him $2.75 million with $1 million in guarantees, a multiyear deal with an average salary of less than the $2.75 million he received in 2014.
A good starting point would be a two-year deal averaging around $1.5 million per year, with both years of the deal containing a per-game roster bonus for every game he’s active.
S Antrel Rolle
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The future of safety Antrel Rolle is one that is going to be debated right up until it is announced he has signed a new contract with some team.
The question that the Giants must address is whether the 32-year-old Rolle’s play is on the decline or if 2014 was simply a one-time aberration for a man who, in his weekly in-season radio spot with WFAN, insisted that he still “has a lot left in the tank” (h/t Paul Schwartz, New York Post).
Let’s look at the numbers, which while not telling the entire story, offer a starting point in evaluating his season.
Rolle finished with 87 tackles, his lowest total since 2010, his first season as a Giant, and 11 less than his career-high 98 set in 2013, his most recent Pro Bowl season.
In coverage, Rolle finished with an 80.8 NFL rating for 2014, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). That’s a big jump from his career-best 43.1 rating he had in 2013 (remember, the lower the rating for a defender, the better).
Numbers aside, let’s look at the intangibles that are in his favor.
First, Rolle has never missed a game as a member of the Giants—a rare occurrence in a locker room that, two years in a row, has been at or near the top of the NFL in injuries.
Second, as the Giants get younger, it is important to have veteran leadership, a voice that Rolle has provided almost from the first day he walked in the door in 2010.
Of the Giants’ elected co-captains in 2014, Rolle was perhaps the most vocal in the locker room, which is not a bad thing.
Third, despite the dip in his production in 2014, part of the evaluation that needs to be considered is how much of that dip was strictly his doing.
Did Rolle make more mistakes in his play than usual or were those “mistakes” a result of the injuries around him that forced new faces into new roles almost weekly affecting the communication on defense?
That’s something the coaches will need to determine given that they know the assignments and calls that were made.
Before discussing the numbers for a possible new deal for Rolle, let’s look at an argument against re-signing him.
First, if the Giants are going to spend significant money on a safety, does it pay to bring in someone like Devin McCourty of the Patriots who will be 28 years old in August, and who might prove to be a better value if signed to a multiyear contract?
If the Giants want continuity, then it probably makes sense to re-sign Rolle, even if it’s just a short-term deal.
The Numbers
Although Rolle is not an old man, it’s probably doubtful the Giants would consider giving him more than a two-year contract, a pact that, by the time he finished it, he would be 34.
Still, if the Giants want to have some continuity at the position as they transition to the “next generation” at safety, an incentive-laced two-year deal averaging in the neighborhood of $2.1 million per year might not be a bad idea to consider if a free agent is not in the cards.
All contract data from Over The Cap unless otherwise noted.
Patricia Traina covers the Giants for Inside Football, the Journal Inquirer and Sports Xchange. All quotes and information obtained firsthand unless otherwise sourced. Follow me on Twitter @Patricia_Traina.
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