Young Studs Entering 2015 on the Cusp of NBA Stardom
The 2015 calendar year should be a fertile one for the NBA.
Judging by what we've seen in the very recent past, the immediate future should include the birth of several of the league's newest stars.
The following eight players are all set to ascend basketball's ranks over the coming weeks and months. But before dissecting how this octet arrived here and where it might be headed, it's important to put a few parameters in place.
First, there needs to be a firm definition for "young." In this case, only players under the age of 25 were considered.
These also have to be players who haven't yet reached stardom. From a statistical standpoint, this means no one who is averaging (or has previously averaged) eight-plus assists, 10-plus rebounds or 18-plus points. It doesn't make sense to steer fans toward hype trains that have already left the station.
While statistics don't tell the entire story, coupling them with a little bit of context can paint a pretty clear picture of the player being discussed. The following players don't simply fill a box score; they line it with meaningful, star-caliber production.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, SG, Milwaukee Bucks
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2014-15 Notable Numbers: 12.0 PTS, 6.1 REB, 2.1 AST, 1.0 BLK, 50.2 FG%, 15.8 PER
Giannis Antetokounmpo's physical profile oozes superstar potential on its own. But it's the way the Milwaukee Bucks swingman has learned to harness his natural gifts that has really sent his ceiling soaring.
"His foundation is getting stronger," Bucks coach Jason Kidd said, per Charles F. Gardner of the Journal Sentinel. "He's understanding what he's capable of doing."
That's a terrifying thought, considering the Greek Freak is capable of wreaking havoc on both sides of the ball.
He stands 6'11" tall—at least, the 20-year-old did the last time Milwaukee executives broke out the tape measure—which puts him on the same vertical plane as centers Dwight Howard and DeMarcus Cousins. But Antetokounmpo's quickness and athleticism make him a perfect fit on the perimeter, where he literally dwarfs his competition while contesting shots, plugging passing lanes and finishing over his defender.
By backing off a three-point shot he has yet to master, he has turned himself into an offensive weapon inside the arc. His field-goal percentage has jumped nearly 10 points from last season's 41.4 mark, and he has spent considerably more time at the free-throw line (4.1 attempts per game, up from 2.6).
And his defense can be every bit as dominant as his pterodactyl-like length suggests.
It's getting harder to imagine him encountering any obstacles on the road to stardom that he can't clear.
Derrick Favors, PF, Utah Jazz
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2014-15 Notable Numbers: 15.7 PTS, 8.5 REB, 1.6 BLK, 55.0 FG%, 22.6 PER
Opportunity evaded Derrick Favors at the start of his career, but the former No. 3 pick is continuing to prove how dominant he can be when given the chance.
He was traded during his rookie season and spent the next two trapped behind Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap on a crowded Utah Jazz frontcourt. But Favors finally found that elusive starting gig in 2013-14 and has cemented his status as one of the NBA's rising stars ever since.
His raw numbers mask the growth he has enjoyed since last season. He went for 13.3 points, 8.7 rebounds and 1.5 blocks a night then and has essentially duplicated those statistics this season.
But dig a little deeper, and his maturation becomes obvious.
He's becoming a more effective scorer on the block (78.3 percent shooting at the rim, up from 69.6 percent) and far more comfortable away from the basket (40.0 percent shooting outside of 10 feet, up from 33.7 percent). He is punishing defenses that give him too much attention with a career-best 8.8 assist percentage. His offensive rating, which had never been above 108, has spiked to 117.
He now looks like the type of player many thought he could become, which only adds to the intrigue surrounding his promising future.
Draymond Green, PF, Golden State Warriors
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2014-15 Notable Numbers: 12.1 PTS, 8.3 REB, 3.7 AST, 1.5 STL, 1.5 BLK, 44.3 FG%, 15.9 PER
Draymond Green is the only former second-round pick to crack this list and is making his method of entry into the NBA look more absurd by the minute.
His versatility is nearly unmatched by his peers. He is one of only two players averaging at least 12 points, eight rebounds, 3.5 assists and one block. The other is MVP candidate Marc Gasol. And the 2012-13 Defensive Player of the Year isn't swiping steals or raining threes like Green.
"Once you start giving Draymond minutes, it's difficult to find reasons to stop," wrote Ethan Sherwood Strauss of ESPN.com. "He guards four positions, stretches the floor on offense, pushes the ball in transition and moves the ball quickly in the half-court."
Green is the type of player almost impossible to label.
Warriors coach Steve Kerr calls Green "The Heartbeat," per Bay Area News Group's Jimmy Durkin, and it's hard to miss Green's impact as an emotional leader. But energy guys aren't supposed to have this much talent, and role players shouldn't be capable of filling so many different roles.
That makes it tempting to call Green a jack-of-all-trades, but that undersells his masterful defensive talent. It also diminishes a fully loaded offensive arsenal that has already been responsible for single-game outbursts of seven threes, 31 points and 13 assists this season.
It's time to start calling Green what he is: a blossoming star, and one of the biggest stains on several league executives' resumes.
Nikola Mirotic, PF, Chicago Bulls
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2014-15 Notable Numbers: 8.3 PTS, 5.2 REB, 1.2 AST, 43.6 FG%, 38.0 3P%, 18.0 PER
Nikola Mirotic doesn't look like a typical NBA rookie. That's because he isn't one.
Before suiting up for the Chicago Bulls this season, the 23rd pick in 2011 had already starred on the international circuit. He was named Euroleague's Rising Star in 2011 (and again in 2012) and captured MVP honors of Spain's Liga ACB in 2013.
Despite getting his first taste of NBA action this year, he looks like a rookie in name only. He is already filling a valuable role for one of the league's top teams, carving out a niche on a crowded frontcourt that includes Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson.
Mirotic, who averages only 18.6 minutes a night, already has 17 games with double-digit points, nine with eight-plus rebounds and nine with multiple threes. He has two outings with 24-plus points, something that top pick Andrew Wiggins—who has as long a leash as he wants with the Minnesota Timberwolves—has only done three times.
"He's done a great job right from the start," Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau said, per K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune. "I didn't know how much he would play or how much he'd be ready for. You never know that until they get out there and you see them function. Everything that he has done, whether it's short or long minutes, he's done well."
Mirotic looks more than ready for a larger role. When he has played at least 25 minutes, he has averaged 14.7 points on 50.6 percent shooting and 7.7 rebounds.
The Bulls can afford to be patient with Mirotic, but patience appears like the only thing keeping him away from stardom.
Victor Oladipo, SG, Orlando Magic
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2014-15 Notable Numbers: 14.8 PTS, 3.9 AST, 3.8 REB, 1.6 STL, 45.6 FG%, 14.6 PER
Victor Oladipo may never enjoy the box-score brilliance that is typically associated with a full-fledged star. So much of his game involves areas that don't show up on the stat sheet, so measuring him by numbers alone fails to capture his overall impact.
That being said, he is starting to challenge that notion by producing at a level that puts him in some exclusive company.
He is one of only eight players averaging at least 14 points, 3.5 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals. The other names on that list include: James Harden, Chris Paul, Stephen Curry, Kyle Lowry, John Wall, Eric Bledsoe and Russell Westbrook.
Oladipo actually posted similar per-game marks last season but has since improved the quality behind the quantity. His three-point percentage has jumped nearly eight points (40.6 from 32.7), while his field-goal percentage has spiked from last year's 41.9 success rate. Despite spending nearly the same amount of time on the ball, he has cut almost two full points off his turnover percentage (17.3 from 19.2).
But, again, Oladipo is the type of player who needs to be seen to be fully appreciated. The stat sheet won't show his relentless defensive energy, his unwavering determination or his coolness in the clutch.
But with the right blend of traditional stats, analytical assessments and the always reliable eye test, Oladipo's two-way potential is easy to spot.
Mason Plumlee, C, Brooklyn Nets
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2014-15 Notable Numbers: 9.4 PTS, 6.6 REB, 1.1 BLK, 57.7 FG%, 19.4 PER
On first glance, Brooklyn Nets big man Mason Plumlee doesn't seem to have the highest ceiling.
The 6'11" center isn't the most polished post player or even a good shooter. To date this season, the sophomore has converted only 42.9 percent of his hook shots, 23.8 percent of his jumpers and 47.0 percent of his free throws.
As a defender, his impact as a shot deterrent is limited by a 6'11" wingspan, per Draft Express. Opponents had finished 53.4 percent of their shots at the rim against him before Monday's games, which ranked tied for 37th among the 51 players who have faced at least six such shots per game.
But those apparent barriers to stardom haven't blocked Plumlee from turning in a very productive 2014-15 campaign.
His numbers above seem somewhat forgettable until one factors in that they have been compiled in only 21.4 minutes a night. Put his averages under a per-36-minute lens, and they jump to 15.8 points, 11.0 rebounds and 1.8 blocks.
And these aren't empty statistics, either. The Nets are seeing significant returns nearly every time they look Plumlee's way. They are 6-1 when he sees at least 33 minutes of action and 3.6 points per 100 possessions better when he plays than when he sits.
Plumlee combines a great motor with mobility, agility and athleticism. He has already lifted his basement high enough to cement himself as a key contributor and could power through his ceiling by tightening up a few of his offensive weaknesses.
Jared Sullinger, PF, Boston Celtics
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2014-15 Notable Numbers: 13.8 PTS, 8.1 REB, 2.2 AST, 46.0 FG%, 33.7 3P%, 17.9 PER
Ability has never been the issue for Boston Celtics bruiser Jared Sullinger. But the two-time All-American saw his draft stock slide in 2012 due to his underwhelming athleticism and a medically red-flagged issue in his back.
At this point, scouts might want a mulligan on those reports. Because when he's healthy, the ground-bound forward simply produces.
For the second consecutive season, Sullinger is averaging better than 17 points, 10 boards and two assists per 36 minutes. To contextualize those numbers, only four players are currently clearing 17 points, 10 rebounds and two dimes a night: Pau Gasol, DeMarcus Cousins and Nikola Vucevic.
Sullinger, who is only playing 28.5 minutes per game, has more double-doubles (nine) than Paul Millsap and Chris Bosh. Sullinger has knocked down more triples (35) than three-point specialist Marco Belinelli and converted his long-range looks at almost the same rate as sniper Ryan Anderson (34.1).
Sullinger is overloaded with offensive talent. He can score both inside and out, create scoring chances for others or find some of his own on the offensive glass. While he gives back some of what he gets at the other end, his basketball IQ and activity on the defensive boards have benefits for Boston.
The Celtics are glad to take all of what Sullinger has to offer, and even scouts who weren't in love with his NBA potential always knew he had more than his share of basketball gifts.
Jonas Valanciunas, C, Toronto Raptors
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2014-15 Notable Numbers: 12.5 PTS, 8.6 REB, 1.0 BLK, 54.2 FG%, 20.3 PER
The Toronto Raptors aren't elite because of Jonas Valanciunas, but they wouldn't be having championship thoughts without employing the two-way 7-footer in the middle.
The Raptors have tasked Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Louis Williams with carrying their second-ranked offense, yet Valanciunas has the second-highest player efficiency rating on the roster. Toronto has struggled to climb out of the bottom third in terms of defense, but Valanciunas has held opposing bigs to a worse shooting percentage at the rim (49.3) than Tyson Chandler, Marc Gasol and Joakim Noah.
Valanciunas is a key ingredient of Toronto's current recipe but looks ready to be something even greater.
His per-36-minute marks have climbed to 17.0 points, 11.6 rebounds and 1.3 blocks, though he's seeing fewer than 27 minutes a night. His 54.2 field-goal percentage ranks ninth among all players averaging at least 25 minutes but has averaged fewer attempts from the field than five of his teammates.
Valanciunas' arrival as an NBA star seems more a matter of when than if. Even with the relatively short leash, he has more games with 15-plus points and 10-plus rebounds (eight) than all but 12 players in the league.
The Raptors may have some understandable reservations about leaning too heavily on a 22-year-old during the middle of a title race. But Toronto could find that featuring this rising star even more might actually strengthen its championship resume.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
