The New Wave of NBA Title Contenders That Are Here to Stay
Over the past decade, just nine teams have made an appearance in the NBA Finals. The 2014-15 season figures to add one, if not two, franchises to that list.
The Miami Heat, who earned five Finals berths in the past nine years, will be lucky just to make the playoffs this year. The San Antonio Spurs, winners of three titles since the 2004-05 season, may not have home-court advantage for a single round of the playoffs. The Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics, the NBA's two winningest franchises, will likely miss the postseason entirely.
The teams with the best championship odds heading into September—the Spurs, Cleveland Cavaliers, Chicago Bulls, Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Clippers, per Pro Basketball Talk's Kurt Helin—all still figure to be in the title mix, but they'll be joined by a motley crew of up-and-coming contenders.
Take one glance at the league's current standings and you'll see why SB Nation's Tom Ziller and Paul Flannery have dubbed this a "transition season."
Which of these rising teams—none of which has made a Finals appearance in the past two decades—are here to stay among the league's elite for years to come? Based on a mixture of current talent, salary-cap space and the potential for internal improvement, seven in particular rise to the top.
Notable Exclusions
1 of 8
By virtue of making the Finals within the past 20 years, these squads don't qualify as new-wave contenders like the other franchises featured here. However, all three should be taken seriously when sizing up the championship picture over the next few seasons.
Cleveland Cavaliers
As long as Kyrie Irving, LeBron James and Kevin Love are still on the team, the Cleveland Cavaliers can't be counted out as title contenders. Sure, they've stumbled out to a 19-17 record, and their defense has been dismal to date, ranking 23rd in the league, but there's still plenty of time to turn both around.
Their trade for Denver Nuggets center Timofey Mozgov, for instance, will go a long way toward shoring up their atrocious defense at the rim (second-worst in the NBA). Anderson Varejao's season-ending Achilles tear didn't do them any favors in the title race, but given the paucity of championship-caliber teams in the Eastern Conference, Cleveland still has life.
The biggest concern regarding Cleveland's long-term contender status is the possibility of both Love and James opting out in July and taking their talents elsewhere. If the Cavs are able to sign both to long-term contracts this summer, however, they figure to factor into the title conversation for the next half-decade.
Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks are only four seasons removed from winning their first-ever NBA championship, but they've undergone a full roster overhaul in that time. Three players remain from that title-winning team—Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler and J.J. Barea—and the latter two just rejoined the squad within the past year.
Replacing Jason Kidd, Jason Terry and Shawn Marion are Rajon Rondo, Monta Ellis and Chandler Parsons, giving this iteration of the Mavericks a decidedly different feel. The 2010-11 Mavs made their money on defense, limiting opponents to the seventh-fewest points per 100 possessions, while this year's squad is overwhelming foes with the league's best offense.
Dallas' decidedly average defense is a concern for its title chances this season, and the upcoming unrestricted free agency of Rondo and Chandler could throw a wrench in the Mavs' long-term contention plans. If it's able to re-sign both this summer, however, Dallas figures to remain among the Western Conference elite so long as Nowitzki is on the team.
Houston Rockets
Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher put it best when discussing the Houston Rockets' status as title contenders:
"While we usually equate offense—unique, innovative offense—with Daryl Morey's team, in this case, it's old-fashioned defense that's getting it done. And there's no reason that can't translate into the postseason, and that they can, for the first time in a long time, actually escape the first round in 2015.
"
The Rockets, who had the league's fourth-best offense and 12th-best defense in 2013-14, have flipped the script one season later. Only the Golden State Warriors have a better defense than Houston, but the Rockets offense is very much average, which, given their talent on that side of the ball, is difficult to explain.
With new acquisitions Corey Brewer and Josh Smith settling into their respective roles alongside James Harden, Dwight Howard and Co., the Rockets should begin to shoot up the standings in the coming weeks. And with Howard, Harden, Brewer and Trevor Ariza locked up through 2015-16, Houston should be right back in the title picture next season too.
Atlanta Hawks
2 of 8
For the past half-decade, the Atlanta Hawks have been stuck in the dreaded NBA no-man's land: not good enough to contend for a title but not bad enough to bottom out and land a top-tier draft pick.
This year, they're on pace to eclipse their franchise record for wins.
The Hawks have only cracked the 55-win threshold on four occasions, with the 1986-87 and 1993-94 iterations of the team tied for the best-ever record, 57-25. ESPN's Hollinger Playoff Odds currently project Atlanta to finish the season 58-24 and locking up the Eastern Conference's No. 1 seed for just the second time in franchise history.
What's the secret to the Hawks' success? They're one of the two East teams, along with the Chicago Bulls, to rank among the league's top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, the hallmark of any legitimate title contender. They lead the league in assist percentage, rank fourth in effective field-goal percentage and true shooting percentage, and are fifth in assist-to-turnover ratio.
Bleacher Report's Josh Martin recently dove into what's driving Atlanta's offensive success:
"What Atlanta lacks in dominant interior scoring, with a recovering Al Horford and the more perimeter-oriented [Paul] Millsap, it more than makes up for in driving skill and knocking down the sorts of jumpers that so often result from the former. The Hawks' 30.5 drives per game are the sixth-most in the league, just behind (who else?) the Spurs at 30.7. Only six teams in the NBA take more three-pointers as a percentage of their overall attempts, but no team registers assists on as many treys as the Hawks do.
"
Atlanta has some decisions to make in July, as Paul Millsap and swingman DeMarre Carroll both are set to become unrestricted free agents. Al Horford will follow suit the next summer too.
If the Hawks retain both Millsap and Horford—or if they manage to flip one for additional depth elsewhere—they'll be among the Eastern Conference powerhouses for years to come.
Golden State Warriors
3 of 8
Owner Joe Lacob put it best when discussing his Golden State Warriors with USA Today's Sam Amick recently: "If we could do something to improve, we would, but right now it's pretty hard to improve when you're the best in the league."
It's difficult to argue against Lacob at this point in the season. The Warriors tout the league's best record (28-5), the best defense and the fourth-best offense, making them the only team in the NBA to rank among the top five on both ends of the court.
Their net rating of plus-12.7 is more than four full points ahead of the next-closest team, the Dallas Mavericks (plus-8.4), which is larger than the gap between the third- and 12th-place squads. They're also tops in effective field-goal percentage, true shooting percentage and player impact estimate (PIE), rank second in assist percentage, and have the third-best three-point shooting percentage on the sixth-most attempted treys per game.
New head coach Steve Kerr has the Warriors humming on both ends of the court, with Klay Thompson and Draymond Green each in the midst of career-best years. As superstar point guard Stephen Curry told Amick, chemistry has played a large role in the Warriors' meteoric rise to title contenders:
"(Continuity) goes a long way, and obviously (the front office) has to make decisions on bringing talent in and what have you. That's above our pay grade, but we understand that capitalizing on this chemistry we have is huge. There aren't many locker rooms like we have in this room. Guys who are selfless, guys who just play the game the right way. We appreciate that because it's rare.
"
According to CBS Sports' Matt Moore, Bovada.lv recently installed the Warriors as co-title favorites alongside the Chicago Bulls, bumping the Cleveland Cavaliers from that spot. Though Golden State has its fair share of roadblocks to overcome—the health of center Andrew Bogut, most notably—a Warriors team with home-court advantage throughout the playoffs would be terrifying to the rest of the league.
Like the Hawks, Golden State has a potential hiccup to confront in July, when Green becomes a restricted free agent. If the Warriors retain him, they'll remain a fixture toward the top of the Western Conference standings, especially with David Lee's massive $15.5 million salary coming off their books following the 2015-16 season.
Los Angeles Clippers
4 of 8
Since moving to Los Angeles following the 1983-84 season, the LA Clippers have yet to advance past the conference semifinals. However, two of their three appearances have occurred within the past three seasons, speaking to the overnight transformation this franchise has experienced since drafting Blake Griffin.
With Griffin, point guard Chris Paul and center DeAndre Jordan in tow, the Clippers own one of the league's best Big Threes. In 2013-14, they rode that trio to the league's best offense and were eighth in defensive efficiency, making them one of only four teams to rank among the top 10 in both.
Given that the past 10 NBA champions have each boasted a top-10 defense and all but one had top-10 offenses, per Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley, that formula appeared to set up the Clippers for title contention for years to come. Head coach Doc Rivers, whose Boston Celtics touted a top-five defense during all five years of the Big Three era, figures to keep his Clippers stout on that end of the court.
The Clips have slipped defensively this season, though, coughing up the 16th-most points per 100 possessions. Their offense is still elite—they're ranked among the league's top three in that regard—but they'll need to tighten up defensively to move from the realm of fringe contender to title favorite.
What's behind the defensive slippage? Back in November, ESPN.com's Amin Elhassan (subscription required) highlighted the Clips' lackluster perimeter defense as the main cause:
"...Relying on 34-year-old Matt Barnes to play the sole stopper role is an untenable situation. Barnes brings toughness and some defensive rebounding, but at this stage of his career, it's unrealistic to expect him to defend even decent wings. J.J. Redick is a solid team defender, operating within schemes, but he lacks the size, length and athleticism to be relied upon as a stopper. And Jamal Crawford, although an explosive offensive player, is more a detriment to the defensive cause. Even Chris Paul has shown signs of slowing down, struggling to keep up defensively with some of the more gifted offensive players at guard.
"
Assuming they can rectify their defensive shortcomings this season, the Clippers' core will place them among the Western Conference contenders for the foreseeable future. Jordan is set to become an unrestricted free agent in July, but given his impact—they score 11.8 points per 100 possessions more than opponents with him on the court—LA is virtually certain to retain him at any cost.
Memphis Grizzlies
5 of 8
Over the past five years or so, the Memphis Grizzlies have been the type of team every opponent dreads drawing as a playoff matchup. Upon the arrival of Zach Randolph in July 2009, the Grizzlies evolved into a rough-and-tumble, defensive-minded team that makes life miserable for its foes on both ends of the court.
Since 2010-11, Memphis has boasted a top-10 defense each season, per Basketball-Reference.com, but never had an offense ranked better than 15th. Over that span, the Grizzlies have routinely been toward the bottom of the league in three-pointers made and attempted, instead unabashedly preferring to bully opponents in the paint with Randolph and Marc Gasol.
This year, however, Memphis owns the league's 10th-best offense to go along with the 11th-ranked defense, giving them the 11th-best net rating. The Grizzlies are still toward the bottom of the NBA in treys made and attempted, but with Gasol forcing his way into the Most Valuable Player discussion, it's difficult to find fault with their post-heavy approach.
Gasol isn't the only one performing at a career-best level this year for Memphis. Point guard Mike Conley is setting new personal highs in player efficiency rating (21.5), true shooting percentage (.581), win shares per 48 minutes (.182) and offensive box plus/minus (4.7), providing the Grizzlies with an added dimension offensively.
Early in the season, Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes dubbed the Grizzlies the NBA's most dangerous dark horse:
"Nobody's saying the Grizzlies are a favorite. But they match up well with just about everybody, and there's also this critical point: They don't care how you want to play.
Memphis attacks opponents on its terms, dictating the physical nature and pace of the game with brutal efficiency. The Grizzlies force the ugly. They welcome the grime. And not everybody is comfortable with that.
"
The biggest threat to their status as long-term contenders is Gasol, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent in July. If he leaves Memphis, the team has little chance of remaining among the Western Conference's elite.
If he stays, however, get used to the grit-and-grind in the latter rounds of the playoffs.
Portland Trail Blazers
6 of 8
So long as Damian Lillard has a pulse, you can't exclude the Portland Trail Blazers from the realm of title contenders.
He leads the league in fourth-quarter scoring this season, one year after finishing second in that regard, and is tied for eighth in points scored in clutch time. His lethalness at the end of close contests has spawned what's known as "Lillard Time," a role he's more than happy to embrace.
"When it's needed, I'm definitely not going to shy away from it," Lillard told reporters after keying Portland's rally against the Los Angeles Lakers on Jan. 5. "If I get a little more aggressive and shots don't go in, or I'm not able to change the game, I'm willing to accept that. I can carry that weight. I can deal with not being successful in those situations."
The Blazers, who currently have the league's second-best record (28-8), aren't just Lillard-or-bust. LaMarcus Aldridge is a nightly 20-10 threat. Wesley Matthews is posting career highs in PER (16.5), true shooting percentage (.606) and win shares per 48 minutes (.166), and Nicolas Batum, after a slow start to the season, is working his way back into being Portland's do-it-all glue guy.
The Blazers own the NBA's sixth-best offense and third-best defense, and unlike last year, the bench isn't as much of a glaring liability. Portland's bench chipped in a league-low 23.6 points per game last season, per Hoops Stats, but with Chris Kaman and Steve Blake leading the way, the reserves are now up to 26.5 points per night, which ranks 26th in the NBA.
Sports Illustrated's Rob Mahoney believes the Blazers to be "a trustworthy contender for the Western Conference crown, if not the NBA title":
"Portland is a team that does the work. It scraps, it commits, it executes. It makes the smart read and the responsible play. Yet more than anything, it persists. … Any team that can guard capably across its rotation puts itself in a position to win any game. Any with this kind of offensive potency gives itself a chance at something more.
"
Last season, Lillard and Co. upset the Houston Rockets to advance to the conference semifinals for the first time in a decade-and-a-half. Though Aldridge, Matthews, Robin Lopez, Thomas Robinson and Dorell Wright are all set to become unrestricted free agents in July, the Blazers will remain among the West's elite so long as they retain the former two or three.
Toronto Raptors
7 of 8
After trading Rudy Gay to the Sacramento Kings in December 2013, the Toronto Raptors appeared to be embracing a full-on rebuild. A funny thing happened on the way to the draft lottery, however: They erupted for a franchise-high 48 wins, earning their first playoff berth in six seasons.
This season, they've only continued that momentum, exploding out to the East's third-best record and by far the best 35-game start in franchise history. Even with All-Star swingman DeMar DeRozan having missed 19 games because of a torn left adductor longus tendon, the Raptors tout the league's second-best offense.
Defense, however, remains a major problem area for Toronto. The Raps allow opponents to score 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the league's ninth-highest mark, which doesn't bode well for their chances of notching only their second playoff series win in franchise history this spring.
As Grantland's Zach Lowe recently noted, Toronto fans shouldn't bury their team because of these early-season defensive shortcomings:
"The Raps are confident they’ll get better with effort and experience. Terrence Ross is still finding his way both on and off the ball. [Jonas] Valanciunas is improving as a rim protector, but it comes in fits and starts; the game still looks too fast for him at times. Amir Johnson is a stabilizer, but he’s had problems changing direction while dealing with a balky ankle.
The team already alters its general scheme for specific matchups, and [head coach Dwane] Casey says they’ll do more of that in the playoffs.
"
Unlike many of the other new-wave contenders, the Raptors have their top-tier players (DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Valanciunas) locked up through the 2015-16 season. Though Amir Johnson, Lou Williams and a handful of other rotation players will be free agents in July, the Raptors have the talent and potential cap space to remain a mainstay of the Eastern Conference elite for the next few seasons.
Washington Wizards
8 of 8
Despite being just a half-game out of second place in the East, the Washington Wizards seem to be largely flying under the radar this season.
Part of that could be due to the Wizards fattening up their record on the league's second-easiest schedule to date. They're only 5-8 against teams above .500 at the moment, with just three wins over presumed contenders (Cleveland, Houston and the Clippers) and an 0-3 record against Atlanta, Toronto and Chicago.
Sleeping on Washington because of its lack of early-season marquee victories would be a mistake, though. The Wizards tout the league's sixth-best defense to go with the 14th-ranked offense, but they're roughly one additional point per 100 possessions away from moving into the top 10 in the latter category.
Point guard John Wall has emerged as a true superstar in his fifth NBA season, setting new career highs in PER (20.9), true shooting percentage (.533) and win shares per 48 minutes (.151). Bradley Beal and Paul Pierce are deadly drive-and-kick outlets for Wall, while the starting frontcourt of Nene and Marcin Gortat is one of the league's best big-man duos.
Washington currently owns the NBA's 10th-best net rating (plus-3.8), ahead of teams such as Memphis, Cleveland and the Oklahoma City Thunder. And as we've seen time and again in the playoffs, teams with elite defenses tend to thrive, which sets the Wizards up for perhaps their deepest postseason run in 30-plus years.
"The Wizards will head into the playoffs as a legit contender, right up there with Chicago, Cleveland and Toronto," Bleacher Report's Howard Beck recently opined. "But that's just a label—contender. The question for the Wizards in 2015 is, can they make that label stick?"
Even if the Wizards can't make good on their title bid this season, they won't fade away from the contender picture. Pierce has a player option in 2015-16, but their other key contributors—Wall, Nene, Gortat and Beal—are all locked up through the 2015-16 season at the very least.
All statistics via Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com/stats and are current through games played on Thursday, Jan. 8. All records are current through games played on Thursday, Jan. 8. All contract and salary-cap information via Spotrac.com.
