San Francisco 49ers' 2015 Offseason to-Do List

For the first time since the 2010 offseason, the San Francisco 49ers have missed the postseason. That means it’s time to start putting together the 2015 edition of the team. The 49ers have a full to-do list, so they’d better get cracking early.

Most fans’ ideal to-do list this offseason would have started with “finding a place to store the sixth Lombardi trophy,” but a season full of injuries on the field and turmoil off of it derailed those plans rather early. Few teams in recent memory have suffered so many off-field distractions, ranging from a season-long saga on the fate of Jim Harbaugh to a long suspension for Aldon Smith to multiple run-ins with the law for Ray McDonald. In retrospect, it’s a little amazing the team played as well as it did.

The team thus sits at a crossroads. On the one hand, this is still a team that made three conference championships from 2011 through 2013, and most of that roster core is still there. This is a very talented team that suffered through a tough season; it could make like this year’s Baltimore Ravens or the 2012 Indianapolis Colts and bounce back to the playoffs after an off year.  It still has a top-five defense, and a little work on offense could make it playoff-caliber once again.

On the other hand, the team now has to replace leadership, right from the very top. The head coach and both coordinator positions will not be filled by the same men as they were the last four seasons, so getting those hires right will be extraordinarily important. The defensive line is aging, the offensive line was a disaster and the receiving corps needs more weapons.  This is a team that could collapse under its own weight.

All that being said, this isn’t a team in rebuilding mode; it’s a team in rebounding mode. Let’s take a look at the to-do list and see what the 49ers need to prioritize this offseason.

Hire a New Head Coach

Everything about the 49ers' 2015 season comes down to acing the head-coaching search.

Owner Jed York has made a bold move by moving on from Jim Harbaugh, who leaves San Francisco with the fifth-best winning percentage of all time. With the information that is publicly available, it can only be described as a bad decision. Harbaugh leaves the 49ers without ever suffering a losing season. To let the atmosphere in Santa Clara get bad enough to require moving on from Harbaugh after one disappointing season is a failure in management.

There’s no use dwelling in the past, however—Harbaugh is gone, and the 49ers need to find someone else to replace him. There are basically two paths they can choose to go down here, and both of them have some merit.

They could look at their defense, decide it’s the straw that has stirred the drink for the past few years and hire a defensive-minded coach in order to keep the team focused on its strong points. This is the argument that leads to the two in-house candidates taking over the reins—either coordinator Vic Fangio or defensive line coach Jim Tomsula.

Tomsula was the interim head coach after Mike Singletary was fired and was the head coach of the Rhein Fire in NFL Europe back in 2006. It’s been reported by many that Tomsula is an early favorite to earn the job—he’s well-respected by his players and was one of only two assistants Harbaugh opted to keep when he took over the job.

Personally, I prefer Fangio, who has expressed interest in the job according to Eric Branch. Fangio’s never been a head coach, but has been a top coordinator for decades at this point. His defense has finished in the top five in yards allowed each of the four years he’s been in San Francisco, which is a very impressive run. He’d be a hiring like the Arizona Cardinals’ signing of Bruce Arians—a first-time head coach despite being 60 years old. That’s worked pretty well down in Arizona.

The 49ers have also reportedly requested interviews with Seattle defensive coordinator Dan Quinn and Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, according to Josina Anderson. Like Fangio or Tomsula, this would be a hiring to bolster an area of strength. It would also represent a clean break from the Harbaugh era, which the ownership might desire.

Alternatively, they could look at their offense, decide the development of Colin Kaepernick is the single most important problem they have and hire an offensive-minded coach to bring it up to 21st-century standards.

This is the path that could lead them to picking Denver Broncos’ offensive coordinator Adam Gase, whom they have requested to interview, according to Mike Klis.  I like Gase quite a bit—he’s had success with both Peyton Manning and Tim Tebow, which indicates an offensive philosophy flexible enough to handle different styles of quarterback play. Similarly, someone like Kyle Shanahan, who had success with Robert Griffin III in his rookie season, would be an interesting grab, though Gase is the top name here.

Assemble a Top-Flight Coaching Staff

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

The move the 49ers should have made after this season was replacing offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Only once in the past four years has the 49ers offense finished higher than 20th in terms of yards, and that’s been clearly the weaker half of the team stretching all the way back to the Jeff Garcia era. After an unacceptable, by recent standards, 8-8 season, replacing Roman should have been a given.

Reports from Gregg Henson indicate Roman might be following Harbaugh to Michigan, meaning the 49ers will have to get a new offensive coordinator for 2014. If the 49ers go with a defensive head coach, then this is an incredibly important hire—he’d be the coordinator most responsible for assuring Colin Kaepernick’s future success.

Without knowing the identity of the coach, it’s difficult to speculate on just who a potential offensive coordinator would be. Some interesting names that could be out there include Oregon’s offensive coordinator Scott Frost or Ohio State’s offensive coordinator Tom Herman. Seattle’s Carl Smith would be another interesting, under-the-radar choice.

I don’t see Vic Fangio staying as defensive coordinator if a defensive-minded coach takes over, and even an offensive-minded one wouldn’t be a guarantee to keep the defensive coaching staff in place. Honestly, Fangio moving up to head coach and Jim Tomsula moving up to defensive coordinator might be the best option for the 49ers in general. It’s very difficult to speculate on an outside candidate without knowing who the head coach will be.

Tough Decisions on Free Agents

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

The 49ers have 23 pending free agents coming into the 2015 season. This includes Mike Iupati, Michael Crabtree, Frank Gore, Michael Wilhoite, Perrish Cox and Chris Culliver.

The toughest three decisions are probably Iupati, Crabtree and Gore—they’re the top-three free agents in terms of 2014 salary, and all of them played significant roles for the 49ers this season.

I think Crabtree is likely gone. The 2012 season, where he topped 1,000 yards and should have made the Pro Bowl, is far in the rear-view mirror at this point. Injuries cost him much of the 2013 season, and he didn’t look like the same player this season. The potential he’s flashed has never really fully matured, and he can be described as an inconsistent possession receiver. That’s not worth a big free-agent contract, and I expect his demands will outweigh what the 49ers are willing to pay.

For Frank Gore, there seems to be mutual interest on both sides in bringing him back. A 32-year-old running back is typically not in great demand—the last one to rush for 1,000 yards in a season was Ricky Williams back in 2009—but Gore’s tank isn’t empty yet. He had arguably his worst season as a pro, but the last two games showed he still has something to offer. Perhaps, like Fred Jackson in Buffalo, Gore could have another season or two left in him as a rotational running back. His experience and motor would be worth keeping, albeit not at the $6.5 million cap hit he cost in 2014.

The most interesting decision is probably Mike Iupati, who had a bit of an up-and-down season. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rated him as the 13th-best guard in football, so while he probably didn’t deserve the Pro Bowl nod he received, he’s certainly a very solid starter.

The problem is, Iupati’s the highest-rated guard they have with a negative rating at pass-blocking. Iupati was PFF’s second-ranked run-blocking guard, and its 57th-ranked pass-blocking guard. Only perhaps Jahri Evans down in New Orleans had a more pronounced spread. Iupati is the best one-dimensional guard in football.

What’s that worth, contract-wise? It’s hard to say; there’s no one else in football with quite the same combination of elite run-blocking skills and questionable pass-blocking skills. He’s the free agent to watch most closely as the 49ers make their decisions.

Gain Salary Cap Space

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

According to Spotrac, the 49ers are right up against the salary cap ceiling for 2015. This is an early figure—we don’t know precisely what the salary cap will be, there are some de-escalator clauses which have yet to kick in, and there are a lot of various technical moves the 49ers can make to transfer salary cap space from one year to another, but they’re closer to no cap room than, say, $30 million of cap room.

I wrote an article last week on seven players the 49ers could target to free up cap space. I go into more detail there, but basically, there are a couple categories:

• Ahmad Brooks and Vernon Davis could be released or traded
• Justin Smith could retire
• Aldon Smith and Alex Boone could get a contract extension
• Patrick Willis and Stevie Johnson could renegotiate their deals

NFL Network’s Alex Flanagan is reporting Justin Smith will retire, which would be sad to see, but would free up some of that cap space. I also can’t imagine Brooks returning to the team in 2015—not considering the discipline issues he had, his cap number and the presence of Aaron Lynch behind him.

If you assume for the moment the 49ers extend Aldon Smith’s deal in a manner similar to, say, Clay Matthews’ deal, that would save the 49ers somewhere in the neighborhood of an extra $4.7 million against the cap in 2015.

An extension for Willis could save another $5 million or so. It’s not too difficult for the 49ers to free up 10 or so million dollars, even before making a tough decision on Davis’ future. They shouldn’t have too many salary cap issues, but they’ll need to actually do some work to free up that space.

Add a Passing Threat

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Once the head coaching staff is sorted and the contracts and salary cap have been negotiated, perhaps the 49ers could actually pay attention to the product on the field. The defense should mostly sort itself out—the defensive line might need a bit of tweaking too, thanks to the possible departures of both Ray McDonald and Justin Smith, but most of the core is fine.

The offense, however, could use an influx of talent. The 49ers finished 30th in the league in passing yards with just 3,063—only the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets did worse than that, and they combined for seven wins.

The 49ers can’t replace their quarterback this season. Financially, Colin Kaepernick is pretty much locked in as a starter in 2015. The new head coach will have to work with him, at least for one season—2016 might be a different case entirely, but that’s a full year away.

Kaepernick finished 2014 with his best game of the season, which is promising—he was 15-for-26 for 204 yards passing with two touchdowns and added 63 yards rushing on the ground. If he was that good every week, he’d be the best quarterback in football. That’s not a very useful statement, as most quarterbacks’ best days would make them the best in football if they could do it consistently, but it puts him a rung above the Zach Mettenbergers and Nick Foles of the world.

Instead, what the 49ers can do is add a receiving threat for Kaepernick—ideally a deep-ball receiver, which is something the 49ers have lacked in recent years. The free-agent roster is enticing but probably out of the 49ers’ price range.

This leaves the draft, where players like Devante Parker, Kevin White and Devin Funchess might fall to the 49ers at the 15th slot. Nailing that pick—and avoiding another A.J. Jenkins-like disaster, will be Trent Baalke’s top priority in player acquisition this offseason.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.