Top 11 Storylines Heading into NBA Christmas Day 2014
NBA cliches have long shelf lives for a reason. There is plenty of truth behind those broken-record phrases.
The 82-game schedule is a marathon. Champions aren't crowned in December. Title teams do strengthen themselves one day at a time.
Measuring-stick matchups—or the even more popular statement games—mean more to fans and analysts than players and coaches. Franchises are far more interested in learning about themselves than seeing how they stack up against a specific opponent.
All of that said, there is enough significance packed into the league's five-game Christmas showcase to challenge a lot of these notions.
Of the 10 teams in action Thursday, no fewer than seven could factor into the championship race. Four of the best from the West will lock horns in two thrilling contests, while the Eastern Conference will bear witness to a reunion of one of this generation's most dominant forces.
All five games feature two clubs with compelling stories to tell. Some have immediate ramifications, others might not have any obvious effects for years. But all of them add to the intrigue that is the latest holiday gift from the basketball gods.
Washington Wizards: Bradley Beal's Next Step
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It's been a dreamlike start to the 2014-15 season for the Washington Wizards.
John Wall has forced his way into the MVP race. Marcin Gortat and Nene have formed one of the league's most effective frontcourts. Paul Pierce has added experience, toughness and complementary scoring to a team in need of all three. Rasual Butler, who was out of the league in 2012-13, has emerged as a surprisingly critical component of the Wizards' second team.
But even with so many things going right, it still might not be enough. The Wizards (19-7) look like a very good team—but perhaps not a great one. Washington's fourth-ranked defense is ready for the game's greatest stage, but its 14th-ranked offense seems to lack the punch of a full-fledged contender.
And with so much of this roster playing at or near its peak performance level, there aren't many obvious avenues to improvement.
Third-year shooting guard Bradley Beal is the exception. The 21-year-old could cement the Wizards' elite status if he can take a significant step forward. He is shooting at career levels from all areas of the floor (.429/.464/.796), but he isn't scoring (15.1 points) or distributing (3.0 assists) like he did last season (17.1 and 3.3, respectively).
A broken wrist slowed his start, and opposing defenses have obviously made him a priority. But the Wizards won't make any forward progress until he does.
Deadly from distance and comfortable creating off the dribble, Beal has the offensive arsenal to push this attack into a different tier. Whether he can have that type of impact could determine the level of success the Wizards can reach this season.
New York Knicks: Drawing Their Offseason Blueprint
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Whatever Phil Jackson had in mind for his first full season as president of the New York Knicks, it certainly wasn't this.
With a gruesome 5-25 record to their name, the Knicks are on pace to set a new franchise mark of futility. New York has never won fewer than 26.3 percent of its games; it is currently winning games at a 16.7 percent clip.
If there is a silver lining at the center of this sunken ship, it's the fact that New York's focus for the 2014-15 campaign has never been on this season itself. Rather, the Knicks have kept both eyes fixed on the upcoming offseason, as the summer may provide the relief needed to extinguish this dumpster fire.
The Knicks own their first-round pick, and the selection should check in near the top of the draft board. More importantly, New York holds several sizable expiring contracts. Amar'e Stoudemire ($23.4 million) and Andrea Bargnani ($12 million) offer more than $35 million in salary cap relief alone.
This roster needs a severe upgrade in talent, but the upcoming free-agent crop could offer just that. As ESPN Insider Amin Elhassan (subscription required) explained, one player has already emerged as an ideal fit in the Big Apple:
"The No. 1 free agent in 2015 also happens to be the perfect match for the Knicks' needs: Grizzlies center Marc Gasol checks all the boxes as an elite-basketball IQ big who operates equally well out of both the high and low posts, is an excellent passing big who can score with his back to the basket, can shoot from midrange, and perhaps most importantly, he anchors an elite defense.
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The Knicks must do whatever they can to maximize their buying power on the open market. Whether that means giving Carmelo Anthony the rest his knee might need or flipping the few prospects they have for something of value, everything must be done with a focus on the future.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Race Against Time
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The Oklahoma City Thunder have a top gear few other teams can reach. With reigning MVP Kevin Durant and current MVP candidate Russell Westbrook leading the charge, the Thunder are capable of doing some pretty miraculous things.
Thanks to an early-season assault by the injury imp, Oklahoma City will need to flash its rapid-recovery ability. Between Durant's Jones fracture in his right foot (and current ankle sprain) and Westbrook's fractured hand, the Thunder have been dealt a few debilitating blows. The end result was ultimately a 3-12 start, which hasn't been completely erased despite a 10-3 stretch since.
Although this team finds itself outside the playoff picture for now, that could change fairly quickly. Since Westbrook's return on Nov. 28, the Thunder have the NBA's fourth-best net rating of plus-9.4 points per 100 possessions.
Oklahoma City has been so good so fast that some wonder just how far this club can climb up the Western Conference standings.
"They have quickly gone from an extremely dangerous eighth seed to potentially something more," wrote ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton.
Looking back at last season, it took 54 wins to claim the No. 4 seed and 49 victories to sneak in the No. 8 spot. The Thunder would need to finish the year 41-13 to hit the former or go 36-18 to reach the latter.
A 41-13 stretch doesn't seem impossible for this team, but it leaves no margin for error. The question becomes whether the Thunder need to be that dominant in order to realize their lofty postseason potential.
San Antonio Spurs: Kawhi Leonard's 'Problematic' Hand
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The San Antonio Spurs have a historically significant trio with Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. They also boast one of the deepest rosters in the business with 11 different players averaging at least six points.
This is as far from a one-man show as it gets in the NBA. But one might still determine that a most important player exists in the Alamo City. One might also point to reigning Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard as that vital piece of the puzzle.
Leonard's numbers don't immediately imply that type of impact. He ranks third on the team in scoring (15.2), second in rebounds (7.6) and sixth in assists (2.5). But to appreciate Leonard's astronomical value, one must simply know the right place to look.
With Leonard on the floor, San Antonio has outscored opponents by 12.1 points per 100 possessions. When he has sat, the Spurs have been outscored by 0.8 points per 100 possessions. The Spurs' 94.4 defensive rating with Leonard would rank as the NBA's best. Their 105.6 mark without him would check in at 23rd.
The 23-year-old is incredibly valuable to this team, which makes his injured right hand all the more worrisome. Despite Leonard's assessment that the injury "isn't as bad as it sounds," per Dan McCarney of the San Antonio Express-News, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich seems far more concerned.
"I don't know about Kawhi," Popovich said, per ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne. "That one's very problematic. ... One of the doctors said he's been doing hands for 40 years and it's the first time he's ever seen this injury."
A lot of things must break right for the Spurs to successfully defend their title, and Leonard putting this problem behind him might be at the top of the list.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Search for Consistency
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Tune in on the right nights, and the Cleveland Cavaliers look every bit like the wrecking ball their roster says they are.
Despite having a radically reshaped roster looking to mesh on the fly and a first-year NBA coach tasked with bringing it together, the Cavs have managed to flex their championship muscle at times. Cleveland already has double-digit wins over the Atlanta Hawks, Washington Wizards, Toronto Raptors and Memphis Grizzlies, plus the first blood drawn in its season series with the Chicago Bulls.
The Cavs' Big Three of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love have combined for 61.7 points, 18.7 rebounds and 15.5 assists on a nightly basis. And that's with Love, shooting just 40 percent from the field his past 10 games, standing out as a largely untapped source of production.
Cleveland's ceiling stretches as high as everyone imagined it might. But the gap between this group's good days and bad ones is uncomfortably large.
"On nights that the bench gives them something...and they defend with some determination, they look formidable," wrote Bleacher Report's Ethan Skolnick. "On nights that neither occurs, they can get flattened, no matter who shows up on the other side."
The Cavs have already dropped contests with the New York Knicks, Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets. The Hawks, playing without starting point guard Jeff Teague, dealt the Cavs a 127-98 beatdown inside Quicken Loans Arena on Dec. 17.
Cleveland's inconsistency will likely remain an issue as long as this team remains so generous at the defensive end. Offensive chemistry might grow organically, but defensive discipline only comes from focus and hard work.
Miami Heat: From Soaring to Surviving
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Last season, LeBron James helped guide the Miami Heat to their fourth consecutive NBA Finals. This Christmas, he'll return to South Beach as a visitor for the first time since his exit.
And James might have a hard time recognizing his old team.
Decimated by injury, the Heat have encountered major issues on both ends of the floor. Miami has the 17th-rated offense and the sixth-worst defense. This offense has gone as far as Dwyane Wade (22.8 points, 5.5 assists) and Chris Bosh (21.6 points, 8.2 rebounds) can carry it.
The problem is that hasn't been very far.
Wade has missed eight games already, most recently missing time with yet another issue in his knee. A strained left calf has kept Bosh out of Miami's last five contests, and the versatile big man is not expected to play Thursday against the Cavs, per Michael Wallace of ESPN.com.
The Heat don't have many weapons beyond their top two guns.
Luol Deng has been steady, but history long ago cast him as a complementary option. Mario Chalmers has struggled mightily with his three-point shot (29.3 percent). Norris Cole hasn't found his scoring rhythm from anywhere (.385/.254/.714 slash line). Rookie Shabazz Napier has fallen out of the rotation. Losing jack-of-all-trades Josh McRoberts to a possibly season-ending knee injury didn't help.
Miami isn't ready to wave the white flag. League sources told ESPN.com's Marc Stein that the Heat tried to enter the Josh Smith sweepstakes before he committed to the Houston Rockets (per Fox 26 in Houston).
James' return may provide a brief reminder of how good things were, but the game itself may give a sobering update on where the Heat currently stand.
Los Angeles Lakers: Pick Protection
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The Los Angeles Lakers have to embrace the loss column. Yes, even in a market that measures success in championships and with a franchise face who subscribes to the same theory.
The Lakers didn't keep Kobe Bryant around to tank. If that was the intention, they also wouldn't have hired the championship-dreaming Byron Scott as head coach, cast the winning bid on the amnestied Carlos Boozer or limited rookie Jordan Clarkson's minutes to create playing time for Jeremy Lin and Ronnie Price.
L.A. is losing quite a bit, but it doesn't seem like it's being done by design. In fact, the Lakers are really winning more games than they should.
Their 2015 first-round pick should be a valuable one. But if it falls anywhere outside the top five, it belongs to the Phoenix Suns as part of the 2012 trade that brought Steve Nash to Hollywood.
L.A. currently has the fifth-worst record in the league. That's not bad enough to ensure the Lakers can add some needed youth this summer.
"The only way the Lakers are 100% guaranteed a draft pick in June is if they finish with the worst or second-worst record," wrote Eric Pincus of the Los Angeles Times. "At third-worst, they have a 4% chance to fall to sixth. The odds climb to 20% at fourth and all the way up to 44.7% at fifth."
With little young talent to develop, L.A.'s only goal for this season should be protecting that pick. There are a handful of bad teams that could all look to bottom out at some point, and the Lakers can't afford to fall back in a race to the cellar.
Chicago Bulls: Scaling the Backcourt Ranks
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It's not the biggest surprise to see the Chicago Bulls forcing their way into the discussion of the NBA's best backcourts.
What might open a few eyes, though, is the person most responsible for that ascent. Former MVP Derrick Rose opened the window with his return from nearly two years lost to knee injuries. But fourth-year shooting guard Jimmy Butler has been the one pushing the Bulls through it.
Butler leads the Bulls in scoring at 21.7 points per game. His 22.0 player efficiency rating checks in ahead of Dwight Howard (21.4) and John Wall (20.8).
"I've been in love with him and had a man crush on him for a while now," Raptors coach Dwane Casey said of Butler, per K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune (subscription required). "He's a strong, physical kid. Now he's knocking down shots, handling the ball. He has developed into an all-around All-Star-type player."
Butler has been a two-way force. At 25 years old and with only 217 regular-season games under his belt, he has ample opportunity to improve.
That's a truly terrifying thought given the caliber of his backcourt mate.
Rose has appeared understandably rusty at times, and his per-game marks are far from overwhelming: 17.9 points (on 44.7 percent shooting) and 4.9 assists. But if his last five outings are any indication, he could be back soaring among the superstar ranks in no time.
The Bulls have an incredibly talented frontcourt and a well-balanced supporting cast. But this backcourt could be what helps the Windy City reach the game's greatest summit for the first time since Michael Jordan left.
Golden State Warriors: Andrew Bogut's Health
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The Golden State Warriors look like the NBA's best team entering the holiday.
Their .852 winning percentage is the league's only one above .760. Their plus-11.1 net efficiency rating is the only double-digit mark, and no team has a better defense.
The Warriors check almost every box as a legitimate contender: two-way dominance, a superstar leader (Stephen Curry), tremendous depth and brilliant coaching. But the one box left unfilled could be the most critical: health.
Center Andrew Bogut has missed the last six games with a knee injury that has required two platelet rich plasma injections already. There is no timetable for his return.
Golden State can survive in the short term without Bogut manning the middle. Coach Steve Kerr has plenty of frontcourt options, including recently returned former All-Star David Lee. The Warriors can go big or small without losing their defensive identity, and this offense is always going to be a handful with Curry and Klay Thompson wreaking havoc from distance.
But the Warriors' championship ceiling could come crashing down if Bogut is never able to get past his latest health problem.
"Bogut's health is the chief worry of the Warriors, the difference between them being in the championship hunt and being a second- or third-tier contender hoping to get hot at the right time," wrote Marcus Thompson II of the Bay Area News Group.
Bogut carries immense value as a defensive anchor and offensive catalyst. The Warriors have to hope this is only a temporary setback on their championship quest.
Los Angeles Clippers: Making a Defensive Commitment
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The Los Angeles Clippers are more than capable of running most teams out of the gym.
Their incendiary offensive attack starts with the wildly consistent floor general Chris Paul and his gaudy stat line of 18.1 points, 9.7 assists and only 2.1 turnovers. Blake Griffin is an offensive machine with the tools to do damage as a scorer (23.1 points) or a setup man (4.7 assists). Sharpshooters Jamal Crawford and J.J. Redick can catch fire at any instant. And DeAndre Jordan is a devastating finisher above the rim.
The total package adds up to the league's third-most efficient offense. That type of firepower is usually more than enough to overwhelm opponents.
But when it's not, the Clippers have struggled finding other ways to win. They are currently slotted 18th in defensive efficiency, significantly lower than they sat last season.
L.A. is 10-2 when it keeps clubs under 100 points and only 9-8 when opponents reach the century mark. That's a potentially crushing issue considering the Clippers allow 101.3 points a night on average.
"This is a time when we have to find a way," Paul told reporters after L.A.'s 125-118 loss to the Spurs on Monday. "We have to find our defensive intensity."
Defense is not going to be optional come playoff time.
This Clippers core has yet to make serious playoff noise, and it won't until things get much better on the defensive end.
Marquee Reunions
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Credit the NBA schedule-makers for realizing what makes the holidays so special: getting familiar faces back together.
LeBron James' return visit to Miami carries the most appeal, given how much success he enjoyed during his tenure there and how much uncertainty surrounded his exit. Seeing the King under the spotlight is nothing new, but it will be interesting to watch how the Heat faithful treat their former franchise face.
"The man helped take us to places we've only been once before he got there," Dwyane Wade said, per Bleacher Report's Ethan Skolnick. "So I think he should be received very well for that at the start of the game. And then when the game comes on, then do what you've got to do (as fans)."
The schedule also features Kobe Bryant's Lakers squaring off with the Bulls and Pau Gasol. The two future Hall of Famers spent the past six-plus seasons together in L.A., winning a pair of titles (2009, 2010) and forming a bond that remains strong.
"We have a close friendship," Gasol told reporters of his relationship with Bryant. "We've been through a lot together. ... Our relationship goes beyond basketball. We'll always have a friendship."
The Spurs and Thunder will face off for the first time since last season's Western Conference Finals. Later, the Warriors and Clippers will renew their fiery Pacific Division rivalry.
Golden State and L.A. locked horns last Christmas, and the Warriors prevailed with a hard-fought 105-103 win. The game featured a flagrant-2 foul, two ejections (Draymond Green and Blake Griffin) and three technical fouls—just the typical holiday stuff.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
