Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints: Complete Week 16 Preview for New Orleans

The New Orleans Saints will host their longtime rivals, the Atlanta Falcons, this Sunday in a crucial divisional contest.

With a victory, New Orleans (6-8) can clinch the NFC South outright on Sunday, but it will also need the Carolina Panthers to lose to the Cleveland Browns. The Saints can also secure the divisional title, and with it a playoff spot, with wins in each of their last two games.

In order to do that, however, coach Sean Payton’s club must first reclaim its once-celebrated home-field advantage. New Orleans has lost four in a row in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, but if there’s an opponent that can bring out the Saints’ best efforts, it’s the Falcons.

New Orleans has reeled off three straight home wins over Atlanta, although the Saints fell to the homestanding Falcons in this year’s season opener back in September.

Payton’s squad comes in riding high after a convincing victory in Week 15. The Saints handily defeated the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football, 31-15, to retake sole possession of the divisional lead.

Atlanta, meanwhile, came up short at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers, 27-20. Coach Mike Smith’s club is a mess defensively, but the Falcons boast a prolific passing attack, and the Saints will likely need a lot of points in order to come out on top in this one.

Continue reading for a full preview of this key NFC South showdown, which kicks off Sunday at 1 p.m. ET/noon CT.

Week 15 Recap

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The Saints were dominant in last week’s 31-15 win over the Bears, as they rang up their third consecutive road victory.

Quarterback Drew Brees led the charge, throwing for 375 yards and three touchdowns. He posted a sparkling passer rating of 137.8, as Chicago had no answer for the New Orleans air attack.

After a bit of a sluggish start, the Saints got on the board in the second quarter when Brees hit Josh Hill for a touchdown to cap an 85-yard drive. New Orleans would march 95 yards on its next possession, which ended with a scoring pass to Marques Colston. Thanks to the touchdown, the Saints held a 14-0 halftime lead.

Brees engineered a third straight scoring drive to open the third quarter, as New Orleans went 80 yards in 12 plays. Hill put the cherry on top of the drive with his second touchdown reception of the night, and the Saints assumed a commanding three-touchdown lead.

Chicago finally got on the scoreboard in the fourth quarter with a Jay Cutler touchdown pass to Marquess Wilson, but the Saints weren’t to be denied, and they reclaimed the divisional lead in convincing fashion. 

In addition to big performances from Hill and Colston, the Saints also received hefty contributions from Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills and Pierre Thomas in the passing game. Mark Ingram led the charge on the ground, and he hammered the final nail into the Bears’ coffin with a 15-yard fourth-quarter touchdown run.

Defensively, the visitors took advantage of a deplorable performance by Cutler. The Saints intercepted the Bears signal-caller three times on the evening, with rookie safety Pierre Warren snagging two of the picks.

The New Orleans pass rush was also stellar, and the Saints finished with a season-high seven sacks. The Bears were 2-of-12 on third downs, with New Orleans applying heavy pressure on several of the failed attempts.

News and Notes

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Saints-Falcons Rivalry

The rivalry between these two squads is easily the oldest (and most bitter) in the NFC South.

Atlanta holds a 48-43 lead in the series, but in recent years, it’s the Saints that have dominated. Since Sean Payton and Drew Brees arrived in New Orleans in 2006, the Saints have gone 13-4 against their hated rivals.

The series didn’t receive much attention from the media until recent years, but there has been no shortage of memorable games between the two squads.

In September 2006, the Saints returned to the Superdome after a one-year absence due to Hurricane Katrina and pounded the Falcons, 23-3, on Monday Night Football.

Another memorable Monday night meeting occurred in 2011, as the Saints dominated the Falcons, 45-16, in a game of historical significance. With New Orleans up big in the fourth quarter at home, Brees found Darren Sproles for a nine-yard touchdown pass that pushed him past Dan Marino to claim the NFL's single-season passing yard record.

The record has since been eclipsed by Peyton Manning, but it had lasted for 27 years before Brees broke it against the Falcons in front of the elated Superdome crowd.

New Orleans won both games with Atlanta to claim a series sweep in 2013, but the Falcons scored a 37-34 shootout victory in Week 1 of this season.

Corey White Moved to Safety

Former starter Corey White has endured a trying season at the cornerback spot, and he was deactivated last week before the Saints' game against Chicago.

The deactivation wasn’t so much a benching, however, as it was a chance for the third-year defensive back to settle into his new role as a safety.  

Season-ending injuries to safeties Jairus Byrd and Rafael Bush have made the Saints rail-thin at the position, and White’s move provides them with some much-needed depth.

Whether or not he’ll see action this Sunday at his new position remains to be seen, but against the Falcons’ high-flying passing attack, New Orleans could use all the help it can get.

Offensive Defense

The Saints and the Falcons boast two of the NFL’s finest passing offenses, but their defenses are an entirely different story. In fact, these squads field the two worst statistical defenses in the league.

New Orleans heads into the contest with the NFL’s 31st-ranked defense, while Atlanta ranks dead last.

Anything less than a shootout akin to Week 1’s high-scoring affair will come as a shock in this one, especially considering the offensive firepower at each club’s disposal.

Don’t be surprised, however, if a defensive player from one of these struggling units steps up to make a game-deciding play down the stretch.

Injury Report

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The Saints don’t have a very extensive injury report this week, but they do have some key players listed as questionable for Sunday’s big contest, according to NewOrleansSaints.com.

Starting left tackle Terron Armstead has been held out of practice all week with a neck injury. He’s questionable for Sunday, as is starting strong safety Jamarca Sanford, who missed Friday's practice with an injured hamstring.

Armstead went down last week against the Bears and left the game, but backup tackle Bryce Harris performed well in his stead against menacing Chicago pass-rusher Jared Allen.

Also listed as questionable for Sunday is defensive end Akiem Hicks. The starter’s ankle injury didn’t keep him completely off the practice field Friday, but he was limited in workouts.

Matchups to Watch

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Keenan Lewis vs. Julio Jones

Keenan Lewis has firmly established himself this season as not only the Saints’ best defensive back but one of the top cover corners in the league.

Julio Jones’ status for this game is still very much up in the air, but if he’s able to go, this is a must-see matchup. According to AtlantaFalcons.com, the fourth-year wideout missed Friday’s practice with a hip injury, and he’s listed as questionable.

Given the magnitude of this contest, Jones will undoubtedly be looking to get on the field. He’s easily the most imposing receiver the Saints will have faced since Dez Bryant in Week 4, and they’ll certainly have their hands full trying to defend him.

New Orleans defensive coordinator Rob Ryan may opt to place Lewis on the Falcons’ other dangerous wideout, Roddy White, while double-teaming Jones with a safety and another corner. Given Lewis’ competitive nature, however, there’s a good chance he’ll be matched up with Jones on a significant portion of Atlanta’s offensive snaps.

If Jones is able to play, this should make for a compelling matchup that’s almost certain to have a huge effect on the game’s outcome.

Jimmy Graham vs. Falcons Secondary

After a couple of unusually quiet outings, including one game in which he wasn’t even so much as targeted, Jimmy Graham got back on track against the Bears in Week 15. He led all receivers with a five-catch, 87-yard outing, and he’ll be looking to carry that momentum into this week’s crucial contest.

As he often has been this season, Graham was covered primarily by a cornerback last week. Chicago's Kyle Fuller drew the assignment on most plays, and the Saints' All-Pro tight end was able to have his way with the rookie on several occasions.

The Falcons have double-teamed Graham in the past, and their plan for defending him this Sunday will be interesting, but look for them to place a corner on him for the majority of snaps. Given his height, the 6’0” Desmond Trufant appears the most likely candidate for the job, as the 6’7” Graham towers over the other Atlanta corners.

Drew Brees vs. Matt Ryan

Granted, this isn’t a traditional matchup that will be played out on the field in a head-to-head manner. But make no mistake: Drew Brees and Matt Ryan will be dueling come Sunday afternoon.

These two elite passers can both light up scoreboards in a hurry, and they each take great pride in beating the other.

Given that both Brees and Ryan have explosive offensive weapons at their disposal, not to mention woeful defenses at their backs, the points are likely to rain down in this one.

All things considered, this contest may very well come down to whichever quarterback has the ball last.

Prediction

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The fact that the Saints have lost four in a row at home can’t be ignored, but Sunday’s contest won’t be a typical regular-season game at the Superdome.

With the divisional title at stake and the Atlanta Falcons in town, the home crowd will most likely be in playoff form come kickoff time.

The Saints have been nearly unbeatable under such circumstances in years past, and although they’ve struggled at home lately, there won’t be any shortage of energy from the home team in front of its raucous crowd.

Look for the Saints to come out and grab the early lead, but the Falcons will almost certainly make some noise with their prolific passing attack.

This contest could easily turn into a shootout, but in the end, a New Orleans defender will come up with a big play to clinch the game, and possibly the division title, for the home team.

Prediction: Saints 34, Falcons 30.

Statistics obtained via NFL.com.