Fantasy Football Week 16: The Ultimate Guide to Sunday's Action

The fantasy football stakes are highest in Week 16 championships, but so too is the magnitude of the game-time decisions. Some of fantasy's biggest names will be playing at something less than 100 percent...if they play at all.

Julio Jones (hip) and DeMarco Murray (hand surgery) are two of the biggest names that fantasy owners will be counting on being active Sunday. We expect both to play, and they should be active in lineups if they do.

This is Bleacher Report's Ultimate Guide to Sunday's Action, which unveils the final top 100 for Week 16, injury report, starts, sits, sleepers, busts and last-minute waiver options. It is your definitive guide to the news that will affect your lineup decisions and roster building in daily fantasy leagues. 

Also, if the fantasy analysis isn't enough, you can reference Michael Schottey's must-read NFL-based Ultimate Guide to Sunday's Action to delve deeper into the league-wide minutia.

Overall Rankings

Fantasy owners might have made it through the recent struggles of Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers, but they can't stop thinking about whether they need to replace them. Here's the move in fantasy championship games, though: Let your stars win it for you.

Manning wasn't as limited as Rodgers was statistically last week, even if he might be something less than 100 percent due to his thigh injury. Manning still managed 15 fantasy points in standard CBSSports.com leagues, while Rodgers was limited to just five (185 yards and two interceptions) against the red-hot Buffalo Bills defense.

The good news is, both are likely to rebound in fantasy. That should give you enough confidence to stick with them. 

"He looks good to me. I am sure he will be ready to go," receiver Demaryius Thomas told The Denver Post's Troy E. Renck about his quarterback.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, meanwhile, aren't looking at this matchup against Rodgers as timely in any way.

"We know what Aaron Rodgers can do, and that's something we talk about with our offense being on the field more, so we can keep their offense off the field," Bucs running back Martin told the Tampa Bay Times' Greg Auman.

Not only should you keep Manning and Rodgers active in crunch time this week, but B/R lists both among the top five options in its final top 100 for Week 16:

Week 16 Top 100 - Eric Mack

Rank	Flex Rankings	Team	Opponent	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Drew Brees	NO	vs. Atl	3	+2
2	Aaron Rodgers	GB	at TB	1	-1
3	Andrew Luck	IND	at Dal	2	-1
4	Dez Bryant	DAL	vs. Ind	35	+31
5	Peyton Manning	DEN	at Cin	8	+3
6	Calvin Johnson	DET	at Chi	22	+16
7	Le'Veon Bell	PIT	vs. KC	4	-3
8	Antonio Brown	PIT	vs. KC	28	+20
9	Jimmy Graham	NO	vs. Atl	58	+49
10	Eddie Lacy	GB	at TB	12	+2
11	Tom Brady	NE	at NYJ	5	-6
12	Jamaal Charles	KC	at Pit	6	-6
13	Rob Gronkowski	NE	at NYJ	42	+29
14	Arian Foster	HOU	vs. Bal	20	+6
15	LeSean McCoy	PHI	at Was	40	+25
16	Marshawn Lynch	SEA	at Ari	31	+15
17	Matt Ryan	ATL	at NO	7	-10
18	Tony Romo	DAL	vs. Ind	11	-7
19	Odell Beckham	NYG	at StL	37	+18
20	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	at Cin	39	+19
21	Jordy Nelson	GB	at TB	30	+9
22	A.J. Green	CIN	vs. Den	48	+26
23	Matt Forte	CHI	vs. Det	25	+2
24	Matthew Stafford	DET	at Chi	9	-15
25	Alshon Jeffery	CHI	vs. Det	57	+32
26	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	vs. KC	13	-13
27	Jeremy Hill	CIN	vs. Den	49	+22
28	C.J. Anderson	DEN	at Cin	10	-18
29	Justin Forsett	BAL	at Hou	36	+7
30	Tre Mason	STL	vs. NYG	44	+14
31	Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	at Cin	56	+25
32	Randall Cobb	GB	at TB	53	+21
33	Mark Sanchez	PHI	at Was	14	-19
34	Julio Jones	ATL	at NO	83	+49
35	Joique Bell	DET	at Chi	34	-1
36	Mike Evans	TB	vs. GB	54	+18
37	Mark Ingram	NO	vs. Atl	33	-4
38	Alfred Morris	WAS	vs. Phi	52	+14
39	DeMarco Murray	DAL	vs. Ind	45	+6
40	Kelvin Benjamin	CAR	vs. Cle	61	+21
41	Fred Jackson	BUF	at Oak	47	+6
42	Lamar Miller	MIA	vs. Min	51	+9
43	Jeremy Maclin	PHI	at Was	50	+7
44	Jonathan Stewart	CAR	vs. Cle	55	+11
45	Julius Thomas	DEN	at Cin	88	+43
46	Roddy White	ATL	at NO	60	+14
47	Julian Edelman	NE	at NYJ	64	+17
48	Steven Jackson	ATL	at NO	59	+11
49	Dan Herron	IND	at Dal	63	+14
50	Joseph Randle	DAL	vs. Ind	117	+67
51	Josh Gordon	CLE	at Car	66	+15
52	DeSean Jackson	WAS	vs. Phi	68	+16
53	Greg Olsen	CAR	vs. Cle	72	+19
54	Sammy Watkins	BUF	at Oak	73	+19
55	Brandon LaFell	NE	at NYJ	69	+14
56	Latavius Murray	OAK	vs. Buf	65	+9
57	Isaiah Crowell	CLE	at Car	67	+10
58	Mike Wallace	MIA	vs. Min	80	+22
59	Golden Tate	DET	at Chi	62	+3
60	Andre Williams	NYG	at StL	77	+17
61	Martellus Bennett	CHI	vs. Det	82	+21
62	Philip Rivers	SD	at SF	23	-39
63	Russell Wilson	SEA	at Ari	15	-48
64	Giovani Bernard	CIN	vs. Den	89	+25
65	Antonio Gates	SD	at SF	90	+25
66	Cam Newton	CAR	vs. Cle	26	-40
67	Matt Asiata	MIN	at Mia	79	+12
68	Doug Martin	TB	vs. GB	93	+25
69	Vincent Jackson	TB	vs. GB	76	+7
70	Jordan Matthews	PHI	at Was	78	+8
71	Eli Manning	NYG	at StL	21	-50
72	Delanie Walker	TEN	at Jac	99	+27
73	Steve Smith	BAL	at Hou	85	+12
74	Marques Colston	NO	vs. Atl	84	+10
75	Terrance West	CLE	at Car	130	+55
76	Ryan Tannehill	MIA	vs. Min	16	-60
77	Donte Moncrief	IND	at Dal	100	+23
78	Jarvis Landry	MIA	vs. Min	87	+9
79	Joe Flacco	BAL	at Hou	18	-61
80	Anquan Boldin	SF	vs. SD	96	+16
81	Travis Kelce	KC	at Pit	86	+5
82	Frank Gore	SF	vs. SD	142	+60
83	Eric Decker	NYJ	vs. NE	104	+21
84	Andy Dalton	CIN	vs. Den	24	-60
85	Kenny Stills	NO	vs. Atl	75	-10
86	LeGarrette Blount	NE	at NYJ	94	+8
87	Colin Kaepernick	SF	vs. SD	29	-58
88	Harry Douglas	ATL	at NO	95	+7
89	Dwayne Allen	IND	at Dal	115	+26
90	Shane Vereen	NE	at NYJ	108	+18
91	Torrey Smith	BAL	at Hou	105	+14
92	Andre Johnson	HOU	vs. Bal	98	+6
93	Martavis Bryant	PIT	vs. KC	103	+10
94	Charles Johnson	MIN	at Mia	97	+3
95	Chris Ivory	NYJ	vs. NE	92	-3
96	Jason Witten	DAL	vs. Ind	110	+14
97	Percy Harvin	NYJ	vs. NE	120	+23
98	Pierre Thomas	NO	vs. Atl	102	+4
99	Reggie Bush	DET	at Chi	137	+38
100	Bishop Sankey	TEN	at Jac	148	+48

 

Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) from more than 100 experts provided by FantasyPros.

Injury Report

Every week, we break down the most significant injuries on the official NFL injury report (NFLMedia.com credentials required) as they pertain to fantasy, from the game-time decisions to the probables and those ruled out.

Game-Time Decisions

Running Back

1. RB DeMarco Murray (hand), Dallas Cowboys: He is expected to have the final decision on his status, which means he will decide to play, as NFL insider Adam Schefter tweeted. If he plays, he should be good for double-digit fantasy points.
2. RB Frank Gore (concussion), San Francisco 49ers: Head coach Jim Harbaugh told CSNBayArea.com's Matt Maiocco that Gore has progressed through the NFL's concussion protocol and is on track to play. Because Carlos Hyde (ankle) is out, we should expect Gore to play and prove to be a viable fantasy starter.
3. RB LeGarrette Blount (shoulder), New England Patriots: He was limited in practice, but he is expected to play like last week. The problem is, he might be limited by the New York Jets' fourth-ranked run defense, which is also fifth in fantasy against running backs.
4. RB Shane Vereen (ankle), New England Patriots: He has played through this, so he can be used if you need him. He can impact fantasy as a pass receiver, particularly near the goal line.
5. RB DeAngelo Williams (hand), Carolina Panthers: Joe Person of The Charlotte Observer tweeted head coach Ron Rivera indicated Williams will not play.

Wide Receiver

1. WR Julio Jones (hip), Atlanta Falcons: D. Orlando Ledbetter of The Atlanta Journal Constitution reported Jones is expected to play. Start him in all leagues if he is active.
2. WR T.Y. Hilton (hamstring), Indianapolis Colts: ESPN.com's Mike Wells speculates Hilton will be held out. He won't be healthy enough to start in fantasy regardless.
3. WR Julian Edelman (thigh, concussion), New England Patriots: He has played through game-time decisions for weeks. You should feel confident in using him.
4. WR Brandon LaFell (shoulder), New England Patriots: Ditto here.
5. WR DeAndre Hopkins (ankle), Houston Texans: A shaky quarterback situation should concern you just as much as his inability to practice this week.
6. WR Michael Crabtree (knee), San Francisco 49ers: Forget his lack of health; his lack of productivity should keep him out of lineups.
7. WR Jaron Brown (toe), Arizona Cardinals: Less than 100 percent and facing the Seattle Seahawks? No thanks.

Tight End

1. TE Ladarius Green (ankle, concussion), San Diego Chargers: His status won't matter in fantasy. He hasn't been used enough even when 100 percent. Ignore him.
2. TE Tony Moeaki (shoulder), Seattle Seahawks: He is too far down the pecking order, and the Seahawks don't use the tight end or the pass enough.

The Probables

The following players were officially listed as probable, so you can consider them safe to play in fantasy as needed:

1. RB Jamaal Charles (knee, ankle)
2. RB Arian Foster (hip)
3. WR Calvin Johnson (ankle)
4. RB Eddie Lacy (eye)
5. RB Marshawn Lynch (back)
6. QB Tom Brady (ankle)
7. QB Tony Romo (back)
8. QB Cam Newton (back)
9. WR Roddy White (knee)
10. WR Andre Johnson (concussion)
11. QB Philip Rivers (chest, back)
12. K Cody Parkey (right groin)
13. WR Jordan Matthews (knee)
14. WR Harry Douglas (foot)
15. RB Matt Asiata (foot)
16. TE Charles Clay (hamstring)
17. RB Chris Polk (ankle)
18. RB Kerwynn Williams (knee)
19. WR Larry Fitzgerald (knee)
20. RB C.J. Spiller (shoulder)
21. K Dan Carpenter (right groin)
22. WR Percy Harvin (ankle)
23. RB Chris Johnson (knee)
24. RB Roy Helu (toe)
25. QB Derek Carr (right thumb)
26. WR Greg Jennings (hamstring)
27. K Nick Folk (right hip)
28. RB Bernard Pierce (back)
29. RB Bobby Rainey (wrist)
30. TE Brent Celek (neck)
31. WR Paul Richardson (hamstring)
32. TE Cooper Helfet (ankle)
33. RB Anthony Dixon (chest)
34. TE Anthony Fasano (knee)
35. WR Marcus Thigpen (foot)

Find Replacements

The doubtful and players who are labeled officially out have to be benched in all leagues, while their backups should be considered viable fantasy sleepers, if not stars. Line up replacements for these guys:

1. RB Ryan Mathews (ankle)
2. RB Rashad Jennings (ankle)
3. RB Carlos Hyde (ankle)
4. WR Keenan Allen (collarbone, ankle)
5. QB Nick Foles (collarbone)
6. TE Kyle Rudolph (ankle, knee)
7. K Robbie Gould (right quadriceps)
8. WR Steve Johnson (knee)
9. QB Drew Stanton (knee)
10. RB Daniel Thomas (knee)
11. TE Garrett Graham (ankle)
12. QB Tom Savage (knee)
13. WR Vincent Brown (groin)
14. WR Denarius Moore (knee, ankle)

Start 'Em

USA TODAY Sports

Here are five must-start options for Week 16 based on health, game plan or matchup for fantasy football owners, one at each position:

QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

This hasn't been a great fantasy season for Stafford, but the struggling Chicago Bears are next up. Stafford threw for a season-high 390 yards in the last meeting against a Bears defense that has been dead last in fantasy against quarterbacks and second worst in the NFL against the pass.

You had to love what Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints did against the Bears secondary Monday night, too, passing downfield at will. This shapes up to be a huge day for Calvin Johnson—perhaps even for Golden Tate and Reggie Bush.

RB Joseph Randle, Dallas Cowboys

We should expect DeMarco Murray (hand surgery) to play and get 15 touches, but we should also anticipate Randle to be used heavily in spelling him. Randle will get more touches than he does in most weeks, and we like his chances at scoring against an Indianapolis Colts defense that has allowed the seventh-most points to fantasy running backs. This is a vote of confidence for those owners who scored Randle off waivers this week.

WR Kenny Stills, New Orleans Saints

As we said, Brees was hot Monday night, and now he draws the worst pass defense in football. It will mean a busy day for the Saints receivers and tight end Jimmy Graham. Marques Colston and Stills should each get around six catches for 75 yards and a touchdown, by our projections. Brandin Cooks (thumb) is out for the season, but he was good for 7-77-1 in his NFL debut against these Atlanta Falcons.

TE Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are banged up on the outside with T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) and Reggie Wayne closer to retirement than fantasy lineups. It should mean plenty of targets for Allen, who is facing a Dallas Cowboys defense that has allowed the second-most points to fantasy tight ends. Dallas has surrendered a league-high 92 receptions to tight ends, so we like Allen to go 5-50-1 in this one.

D/ST Philadelphia Eagles

If you have been watching football this year, you know just how mediocre (at best) Robert Griffin III has been in head coach Jay Gruden's offense. RG3 gets another shot here, but we like the Eagles' chances at a defensive rebound. The Redskins have been the third-best matchup for opposing D/STs. Trust the Eagles in crunch time, particularly as they face a must-win situation for their playoff hopes.

Sit 'Em

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Here are five players, one at each of the primary positions, whose matchups are unfavorable enough to keep them out of fantasy starting lineups for Week 16:

QB Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins

Tannehill has shown flashes of potential for fantasy owners this season, but so has the Minnesota Vikings defense under head coach Mike Zimmer. It might surprise you that the Vikings defense has been a top-10 unit against fantasy quarterbacks. Only five teams have allowed fewer passing yards: Seattle Seahawks, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, the Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills. That is some company. Tannehill is no better than a low-end starter in two-quarterback formats.

RB LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots

No, we don't believe he is too banged up or losing the starting job back to Jonas Gray. We just don't like the Patriots' running back rotation right now, especially since they will be motivated to keep Blount, Gray and Shane Vereen healthy for the postseason. Each will cut into each other's value. Also, the New York Jets are fifth-best against fantasy running backs and No. 4 against the run. Vereen, because of his threat as a pass-catcher, is the only Pats back we would advise starting.

WR Eric Decker/Percy Harvin, New York Jets

They have struggled through bad quarterback play and go up against Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner. No thanks. You might get some garbage time in a potential blowout, but odds are greater the Pats just shut down the Jets' top two downfield threats. 

TE Mychal Rivera, Oakland Raiders

Rivera has emerged as a favorite Derek Carr target and a viable fantasy option, but you have to weigh the matchup here. The Buffalo Bills are scorching defensively of late and rank No. 1 in fantasy against tight ends for the season. This is a bad time to trust a fringe option like Rivera.

D/ST Houston Texans

The Baltimore Ravens might not scare fantasy owners, but that doesn't mean you can trust the Texans as a starter here. The Ravens have been the toughest opponent for defensive units, because they are great at limiting mistakes and scoring opportunities. Only the Denver Broncos have allowed fewer sacks. Also, because the Texans are down to their fourth quarterback due to injury, expect the Ravens to play this one close to the vest.

Sleepers and Busts

USA TODAY Sports

Here are five sleeper options to consider playing and five regular starters to consider sitting—one each at the primary positions—in daily fantasy leagues this week:

Five Week 16 Sleepers

1. QB Shaun Hill, St. Louis Rams—The New York Giants have been in the bottom quarter of fantasy against quarterbacks. Hill could be headed for a rare 300-yard, multiple-touchdown performance.
2. RB Andre Williams, New York Giants—With Rashad Jennings (ankle) ruled out, Williams gets a full shot at becoming a feature back. The opportunity is more intriguing than the matchup, though.
3. WR Nick Toon, New Orleans Saints—As we wrote in B/R's Week 16 Predictions, a wide-open game should make for a bounty of good fantasy numbers, even for the Saints' third wideout against the worst pass defense in football.
4. TE Owen Daniels, Baltimore Ravens—Not only does Joe Flacco love to utilize the tight end, but Daniels is also facing his former team. We like him as a starter in all leagues for this one.
5. D/ST San Diego Chargers—The 49ers no longer are a contender, so it could mean a good day for the still-hopeful Chargers. San Francisco's offense shouldn't scare anyone at this point either.

Five Week 16 Lineup Busts

1. QB Eli Manning, New York Giants—He and Odell Beckham Jr. have thrived of late, but those numbers have come against far inferior opponents. The St. Louis Rams at home should present a far more difficult challenge.
2. RB LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles—Chris Polk has taken over as the goal-line back, per Reuben Frank of CSNPhilly.com. Darren Sproles gets the pass-receiving numbers. Poor McCoy owners are left with scraps against a Washington Redskins defense that is third-best against fantasy running backs. Ouch.
3. WR Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns—You are justified starting him because of his talent, but you cannot feel good about Johnny Manziel's ineffectiveness. 
4. TE Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns—Ditto here. Cameron is healthy, but he hasn't gotten much time working with Manziel either.
5. D/ST Arizona Cardinals—They have earned your trust with their consistency, but the Seattle Seahawks don't figure to make many mistakes to help the Cards defense/special teams to score the big fantasy points.

Last-Minute Waiver Options

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

The late-week news can prove to be just as crucial to fantasy success as the analysis of the matchups and injury report. We review the top 10 most-viewed players the past 24 hours from CBSSports.com:

1. WR T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts—His questionable status makes a significant sleeper out of Hakeem Nicks and rookie Donte Moncrief. Either could get in the end zone, if not both.
2. RB DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys—As reported in the injury report slide, the decision to play is his. He won't beg out of this. Count on him starting.
3. WR Harry Douglas, Atlanta Falcons—We expect Julio Jones (hip) to play, but the matchup and the significance of the game should help Douglas impact fantasy championships, too.
4. WR Donte Moncrief, Indianapolis Colts—He will get snaps, targets and receptions even if Hilton and Wayne are active. The question is just how many? Consider him a top-35 fantasy receiving option.
5. WR Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons—Even if he is a decoy, we think he can be a factor in the red zone. He gets in the end zone for fantasy owners, we predict.
6. RB Matt Asiata, Minnesota Vikings—He is the starter and goal-line back for a run-heavy team. We aren't jazzed about the matchup, though.
7. WR DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans—If the questionable status hasn't turned you off, the fact the Texans are without their top three quarterbacks should.
8. RB Joseph Randle, Dallas Cowboys—As we wrote in the start 'em slide, we have confidence in Randle spelling the less-than-100-percent Murray.
9. WR Julian Edelman, New England Patriots—No one should be worried about him playing, or producing, against the suspect New York Jets secondary.
10. RB Branden Oliver, San Diego Chargers—Ryan Mathews' is out, so Oliver should get touches, but the 49ers still have a tough run defense that should scare you off using Oliver in standard leagues.

Note: All data regarding fantasy points against certain positions comes from the sortable stats from FFToday.com. 

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Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.