Predicting the Next Wave of Future Max-Contract NBA Stars
Form an orderly queue, folks. It's time to meet and greet the NBA's millionaires and, in some cases, hundred-millionaires of tomorrow.
Absurd Association contracts aren't handed out like free samples of four-times fried grasshoppers on Planet Nowhere. The NBA is not MLB. But lucrative contracts aren't uncommon either. They're bestowed upon the league's most deserving players often, sometimes early.
Figuring out which talents are next in line for opulent incomes, then, is all about identifying the stars of tomorrow—many of whom are also stars of today, only cheaper.
Focus will lie on upcoming free agency. Candidates include unrestricted free agents, restricted free agents and the extension-eligible youngsters working on rookie-scale contracts. Basically, anyone who can sign a new deal this summer—even if they decide to wait—is fair game.
Narrowing the pool even further is a matter of past and present performance, team situation and a (subjective) look at what the future holds and why. Some choices will come as no surprise (Festus Ezeli), while others will shock you, shattering your concept of reality (Anthony Davis).
Agree or disagree, though, there's one thing each of these rising luminaries have in common: Pizza cocktails will be on them from now until forever.
Max-Contract Shoo-Ins
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"Future" is a pretty vague word. Seconds from now, you'll enter the future. Minutes from now, you'll enter a different kind of future. And, well, you get the point.
In order to preserve the exclusivity of this list, we'll focus on those most likely to sign more than one max contract before their career is out. So, in other words, not these guys.
LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers
It's not a matter of if the Blazers will hand Aldridge a max deal; it's a matter of when. The 29-year-old boasts an offensive skill set that should age well, and he's already committed to remaining in Portland.
This could be one of those situations where a new contract is signed by 12:01 a.m. ET, and the participating parties are sipping mimosas by 12:02.
Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
Gasol's free agency may take a little while, if only because the San Antonio Spurs apparently have eyes for him. Whether he'll desert the surging Grizzlies is neither here nor there, though.
Wherever he ends up, the soon-to-be 30-year-old has played himself deep into max-contract territory.
Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics (or Dallas Mavericks, or Houston Rockets, or ...)
Trade-rumor season is officially upon us and, as always, Rondo remains an integral part of its survival. By the end of 2014-15, he could be a member of the Celtics, Mavericks, Rockets, Sacramento Kings, New York Knicks or Flint Michigan Tropics Los Angeles Lakers, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein.
Not that it particularly matters if or where Rondo is dealt. As an All-Star point man with preeminent playmaking abilities, the almost 29-year-old is in line for a max deal—the first and last of his career.
Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Why, hello Mr. Formality. Nice to see you again.
Kevin Love could have joined Rondo, Gasol and Aldridge; his next contract, whenever he signs it, will be worth max money. But even if he waits until 2016 to ink a long-term pact, he'll still be only 27. This, then, will not be the last max deal of his career.
And yes, Love remains a max-money superstar. It was only last season that he became the first player in league history to average 26 points, 12 rebounds and four assists while also hitting at least one three-pointer.
Though his numbers have declined this season, that's merely a symptom of his situation. The Cleveland Cavaliers employ two ball-dominant studs in LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, limiting Love's number of touches and scoring opportunities.
It's not like his averages are bad either. What team wouldn't take 17.6 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2.4 assists from its power forward, who, by design, has been relegated to James Jones, stand-behind-the-arc duty? Love's shooting percentages are right about his career mark despite this reduced role, and he leads the league in touchdown passes by a wide margin, per ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin.
Inside and outside Cleveland, Love is a floor-spacing, double-double machine worth every penny he will demand.
Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
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Davis will be extension-eligible this summer, and the New Orleans Pelicans would be foolish not to dangle max money in his face—even if said attempt proves futile.
With the salary cap expected to explode in 2016, Davis, like many who follow, might pass on an extension. Waiting until after 2015-16, when he's slated for restricted free agency, exponentially increases his earning potential.
Quantifying his exact value is actually impossible. The NBA has never seen a specimen of his ilk before. He's someone who could lead the Association in points, rebounds, steals, blocks and field-goal percentage in the same season.
As of now, Davis is on course to become the first player in league history to average at least 24 points, 10 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 2.5 blocks on 56 percent or better shooting for an entire season. Those are complex qualifications, but Davis is an elaborate talent.
If 2014-15 ended now, in fact, his player efficiency rating (33.5) would rank as the highest ever. That Davis, all of 21, remains on pace to exceed the career-high PERs of Wilt Chamberlain (31.8), Michael Jordan (31.7) and James (31.7) is wildly absurd. As is the impact he has on his team.
When he's the floor, the Pelicans' net rating (3.8) is better than that of the Chicago Bulls (3.6). When he's off, they're a minus-8.5, the near equivalent of the five-win Detroit Pistons (minus-8.4).
Whatever Davis' play, the bigger picture doesn't change. His ceiling is immeasurable, and he will inevitably join max-contract ranks. It's only a matter of time.
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
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Hopefully Kevin Durant is into the idea of playing beside Bradley Beal in 2016, because the Washington Wizards should be pot committed by that point.
Like Davis, Beal is eligible for an extension this summer, and the Wizards plan on doing what's "necessary" to keep him in our nation's capital, according to RealGM's Shams Charania. That includes signing Beal to a max deal, be it this upcoming offseason or next.
Shooting guard remains a thin position, and Beal continues to vault up the ladder. While his scoring is down, he remains a nice complement to John Wall, as a deadly shooter who can function on or off the ball.
Not only is he putting in more than 47 percent of his long balls, but the Wizards offense is worlds better with him on the floor. They're scoring 106.8 points per 100 possessions with him in tow, compared to 102.7 when he sits. That's the difference between the league's seventh-best offense and 19th-place attack.
An improving shot selection suggests Beal's standing among shooting guards will only increase with time. More than 45 percent of his looks came from mid-range in 2013-14, of which he hit just 37.2 percent. Around 38 percent of his shot attempts have come from mid-range this season, as he focuses on attacking the rim and dwelling behind the three-point line.
There's no reason for the Wizards not to heavily invest in Beal's future when given the opportunity. After all, if they don't, another team will.
Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons
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Are asterisks allowed? If so, sweet. If not, come join me out on this limb. It's fantastically flimsy, but the view is gorgeous.
Unlike many of his slideshow peers, Greg Monroe isn't someone teams can build championship foundations around. The Detroit Pistons have been inexplicably inept over the last half-decade—the life of Monroe's career—but a transcendent talent would have steered them toward more than 30 wins during that time.
Still, Monroe is a scoring and rebounding machine. He's averaging 14.2 points on 47.1 percent shooting for an offense that doesn't work, and he's grabbing nine boards nightly while battling for position with Josh Smith and Andre Drummond.
That Monroe's production appears to have peaked, however, is concerning. His point and rebounding totals have been in steady decline since 2012-13, and his 17.6 PER would be a career worst. Interested teams will have to weigh whether his statistical dip is more Pistons-related or an accurate sign of how he'll perform.
"Monroe’s agent David Falk is looking for a max contract but a lot of teams are going to be hesitant to that kind of commitment," NBC Sports' Kurt Helin wrote. "He may find the market a little less fertile than he expected. Then again after some team strikes out on its first target he could be the guy they turn to and save face with a healthy contract offer."
Productive big men typically don't have problems landing sizable deals. With plenty of other players positioning themselves for 2016 free agency and the cap boon it promises, Monroe will also hit the open market as a premier target for teams looking to improve now.
And while his max-contract candidacy is up in the air, one thing's for sure: Monroe, who Sean Deveney of Sporting News says wants out of Detroit, won't be getting his money—however much—from the Pistons.
Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons
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Painfully ironic though it seems, the Pistons do have two max-contract players.
Drummond will be up for an extension this summer and remains the lone, slim silver lining of Detroit's future. He's also the NBA's closest thing to a DHIT (Dwight Howard in Training).
Most of Drummond's numbers are down, but so his playing time. He's in the midst of an offensive overhaul as well. Stan Van Gundy has the Pistons force-feeding him in the post as he tries to replicate the inside-out model that earned him and Howard acclaim with the Orlando Magic.
The results haven't always been pretty or even watchable. Drummond can be clumsy with the rock, often looking like he's dribbling a tennis ball, and his field-goal percentage is nearly 14 points lower than last season. Opponents are also shooting 61.1 percent inside six feet when defended by him.
Growing pains are the cost of progression, though. The 21-year-old is already more self-sufficient on the offensive end. Only 54.7 percent of his baskets come off assists, and he's on course to become the sixth player in league history to average at least 14 points, 14 rebounds and two blocks per 36 minutes while also qualifying for the minutes-per-game leaderboard.
If successful, Drummond will join the company of Moses Malone, Robert Parish, Bill Walton, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Elvin Hayes—all Hall of Famers.
Sit tight, big fella. That max contract is on its way.
Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
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Ignore the absence of an extension for Kawhi Leonard this past October. He's still going to get paid. Mansion on the moon paid. And it will be the Spurs footing the bill for his home among the cosmos.
San Antonio's decision to not lock Leonard up early was puzzling—bordering on troubling—to some. Would he be the exception to the Spurs' rule?
Absolutely not. The Spurs have a plan. They delayed re-signing Leonard in order to preserve cap space for this summer, when they'll have the opportunity to figure out the futures of Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili while courting additional first-class talent, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrain Wojnarowski.
Waiting ensures the Spurs of maximum financial flexibility, not of Leonard's departure. He's still their future.
"He’s getting more license," Gregg Popovich said, per The Washington Post's Michael Lee. "When you’re a young kid, you’re going to defer to Timmy and Manu and [Tony]. Now it’s like, ‘To heck with those guys. The Big Three, they’re older than dirt. To hell with them. You’re the Big One. You’ve got to go do your deal.’"
Leonard has delivered on his unrestrained license in spite of injuries. He's averaging career highs in points (15.2), rebounds (7.6), assists (2.5) and steals (2.0) per game, and he's one of just four players maintaining an offensive rating north of 106 and a defensive rating under 98.
Already an NBA champion and Finals MVP, the stoic Leonard is, without question, the kind of player you break piggy banks to pay—even if you're the bargain-brokering Spurs.
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
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These next few summers are going to be expensive for the Blazers.
Robin Lopez, Wesley Matthews and Aldridge will all reach free agency in 2015, and Nicolas Batum will follow suit in 2016. On top of that, there's Damian Lillard, the cold-blooded clutch killer who will be up for an extension over the offseason.
Rewarding him with a max contract—this summer or next—is a no-brainer. Point guard is a position alive with talent, which, while entertaining, curbs the value of elite floor generals. Kyle Lowry, an MVP candidate, will earn "just" $12 million annually over the next four years. Ty Lawson is making less than him. Stephen Curry is making less than both.
Lillard, though, won't be subject to the point guard paradox. Neither health nor suboptimal team finishes are standing in his way, waiting to restrict his earning potential. There are only break-banking results.
Provided Lillard's current numbers hold, he'll become the first player ever to average at least 20 points and six assists while shooting 38 percent from deep through his initial three seasons. The phrase you're searching for here is "Oh my god."
This season is shaping up to be Lillard's best of all. Dwyane Wade, James Harden, Chris Paul, Lowry, Curry and himself are the only guards registering PERs above 22, and Lillard ranks in the top 10 of win shares accumulated per 48 minutes (0.224).
Feel free, then, to add Lillard to the list of max-payday formalities.
Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
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When the Search for Hometown Discounts Becomes Crazy Costly: The Chicago Bulls Story.
Jimmy Butler is going to cost the Bulls plenty of cash. Tons of cash. So much cash.
Instead of signing Butler to an extension ahead of the Oct. 31 deadline, the Bulls stood stubborn, trying to convince their two-way prodigy they deserved a hometown discount, according Wojnarowski. Perhaps that ploy would have worked if Butler were playing for Houston, where he was actually born. For the Bulls, though, this was a tactic run afoul.
Here's why:
| Player X | 20.9 | 48.4 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 123 | 105 | 21.1 | $3.0 million |
| Player Y | 21.7 | 45.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 111 | 101 | 19.9 | $14.7 million |
Player X is Butler. Player Y is Klay Thompson, who signed a four-year, $69 million extension with the Golden State Warriors. You do the math.
"If Butler continues on this current track, several league executives agree he will warrant a max-contract offer next summer," Deveney wrote. "That’s based not only on Butler’s numbers, but his top-tier defensive ability, his age (25) and the fact that nearly half the league will have significant cap space available."
Extending Butler previously could have saved the Bulls money. It wouldn't have been the discount they were after, but it would have been a discount all the same.
Butler elected to bet on himself instead—a decision now destined to cost the Bulls.
*Stats via Basketball-Reference and NBA.com unless otherwise cited and are accurate as of games played on Dec. 17, 2014. Salary information via ShamSports and Spotrac.com.
