Dallas Mavericks Must Pull Trigger on Game-Changing Rajon Rondo Trade
The Dallas Mavericks have assembled an intriguing collection of talent, but problems at the point guard position and an overly generous defense threaten to thwart this team's postseason plans.
Rajon Rondo, an All-Star floor general with four All-Defensive team selections on his resume, could be the missing ingredient to Dallas' championship recipe. If the Mavs have any shot at prying him away from the Boston Celtics, Dallas must pounce on this potential gift from the basketball gods.
Multiple reports suggest the Mavericks are trying to do just that.
ESPN.com's Marc Stein shared the latest on the possible exchange:
"The Boston Celtics, after years of flirting with potential Rajon Rondo deals, are in substantive discussions on a trade that would send Rondo to the Dallas Mavericks, according to league sources.
Sources told ESPN.com that the Celtics and Mavericks have been discussing a swap that would furnish Boston with multiple draft picks -- including at least one future first-rounder -- as well as blossoming Mavericks center Brandan Wright and other players needed to make the salary-cap math work.
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Adrian Wojnarowski and Marc Spears of Yahoo Sports labeled Dallas as "a motivated suitor" of Rondo. A league source told Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe that Mavs owner Mark Cuban and coach Rick Carlisle "are ready to pull off a potential deal."
As they should be.
The price is beyond right on Dallas' side.
Rondo's name isn't new to the trade market. "[Trade rumors have been] a way of life since I've been here," he told reporters Wednesday. "It's just part of it."
Where this story differs from the previous versions, though, are the names being associated with his. In 2012, the Celtics went shopping with Rondo and set their sights as high as they possibly could. Boston's targets at the time, according to ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard, were Stephen Curry and Chris Paul.
Less than three years later, the Mavs are reportedly in the running with an offer built around a backup big man in 27-year-old Brandan Wright and a future first-round pick from a franchise that has won 49-plus games in 12 of the last 14 seasons.
Wright, the eighth overall pick in 2007, didn't start coming into his own until signing with the Mavs in 2011. He has developed into a valuable role player who understands his limits, as evidenced by his league-best 74.8 field-goal percentage. But he's never been more than a part-time player (career 15.9 minutes per game), and he comes with no assurances as his contract is set to expire after the season.
Dallas' draft pick doesn't figure to have much value. The Mavericks are on pace for nearly 58 victories, and Rondo might push that number even higher.
If those two "assets" and salary-cap filler are all that's needed for Rondo, how do the Mavericks not pull the trigger on this?
Now, critics might point out that Rondo's price tag has dropped for a reason. A couple reasons, actually.
His contract is set to expire at season's end, and he hasn't masked the fact that he is interested in the free-agency process. He also told reporters at training camp that he sees himself as a max-contract player.
No team wants to pay a king's ransom now for what could amount to being a partial-season rental. And many clubs could resist giving up anything of great significance for a player they could sign outright later, especially with the rebuilding Celtics having seemingly little use for a 28-year-old whose prime could end before theirs starts.
Rondo also needs to prove he has put the torn ACL he suffered in January 2013 completely behind him. Suitors might be willing to live with his three-point troubles (career 25.2 percent), but his recent struggles from the field (40.4 percent the past two seasons) are harder to stomach.
Still, don't expect either of these hurdles to derail Dallas' pursuit.
The Mavericks, a league source told CBS Sports' Ken Berger, are one of two rumored suitors (along with the Houston Rockets) that Rondo "is open to re-signing with." They should have a good read on the situation anyway, since sources told Stein that teams interested in Rondo "will likely request permission to confer with Rondo and his representatives to get Rondo's input on the destination."
Dallas should have a good grasp on Rondo's future long before he even arrives. And it's hard to think of a team better equipped to deal with his scoring struggles.
| Points Per Game | 110.1 | First |
| Field-Goal Percentage | 48.1 | First |
| Offensive Rating | 113.6 | First |
| True Shooting Percentage | 57.3 | Second |
Those are impressive numbers on their own, but they shine even brighter when considering where the Mavs have handed out their point guard minutes.
Veteran newcomer Jameer Nelson has started 23 of the team's 27 games. The 32-year-old has tallied only 7.3 points and 4.1 assists in 25.4 minutes a game. He is shooting a career-worst 37.4 percent from the field, putting him on course for his third consecutive sub-40 percent shooting year. He hasn't had a player efficiency rating above the league average mark of 15.0 since 2010-11.
J.J. Barea has been solid in his return to Dallas, but he's better at creating for himself than for others. With prolific scorers like Monta Ellis (20.6 points per game), Dirk Nowitzki (18.8) and Chandler Parsons (16.7) around, a pass-first point guard could unlock a new level of proficiency for this offense.
And that label describes Rondo at his core.
He lives to set the table for others. He's on pace to capture his third assists title in four seasons (10.8 per game). Despite piloting the 19th-ranked offense, he ranks third in points created by assist per game at 24.3.
Rondo's top scoring teammates now are Jeff Green, Jared Sullinger and Avery Bradley. It's scary to think what Rondo could do quarterbacking an offense with this much firepower.
"He could create jumpers for Dirk Nowitzki and Chandler Parsons, who'd space the floor in return," wrote NBC Sports' Dan Feldman. "Rondo could also run pick-and-roll after pick-and-roll with Tyson Chandler, a great finisher at the rim."
The Mavericks have made it work with game managers at the point. In Rondo, they would have a magician.
If this team hopes to go from being fringe contenders to full-fledged ones, it needs a better driver behind the wheel.
"Concerns have developed through the first quarter of the season about the lack of a top-flight floor leader and shot creator to set up the many weapons at the disposal of coach Rick Carlisle," wrote Stein.
Rondo isn't just one of the game's top playmakers now, he is one of the best distributors of all time. His career 41.51 assist percentage trails only those of Hall of Famer John Stockton (50.24) and perennial All-Star Chris Paul (46.51).
With a hawkish 6'9" wingspan and massive mitts, Rondo's physical gifts also pay major dividends on the glass and the defensive end.
His 7.5 rebounds-per-game average puts him ahead of Portland Trail Blazers center Robin Lopez (7.2), Denver Nuggets forward Kenneth Faried (6.8) and Atlanta Hawks center Al Horford (6.4). Dallas, which ranks 20th in rebounding percentage, has only one player pulling down more boards: Tyson Chandler.
Defensively, Rondo can be a pest. With the freedom to gamble knowing that Chandler is behind him, Rondo could keep constant pressure on the ball and plug up passing lanes.
As ESPN Dallas' Tim MacMahon observed, the Mavs desperately need to strengthen their perimeter defense and Rondo could be the fix for that potentially fatal flaw:
"The Mavs' perimeter defense is awful, and that's putting it politely. They consistently get killed on dribble penetration, a big part of the reason the Mavs allow opponents to shoot a league-high 39.2 percent from 3-point range.
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Rondo, when motivated, is an excellent defender. There are precious few point guards who have his combination of athleticism, length and intelligence. He's only 6-foot-1, but his long arms allow him to defend shooting guards, which would give the Mavs the luxury of putting Monta Ellis on point guards and avoid mismatches on the better scoring 2 guards.
There are always risks when shaking up a roster, but they don't outweigh the possible reward.
A ball-dominant point guard might seem like an awkward fit, but Carlisle has one of the sharpest offensive minds in the NBA. Even if they lose some time on the ball, Ellis and Parsons will remain key pieces of this attack as slashers, shooters and complementary distributors.
Losing Wright would sting, as he provides both production off the bench and insurance behind Chandler. But the Mavs can look for a serviceable second-team option elsewhere. There isn't another Rondo out there for them to find.
As currently constructed, the Mavs' ceiling seems to to peg them as a tough playoff out—and nothing more. There are too many holes on this defense, too many question marks at point guard for this team to successfully mask its issues come postseason time. Dallas cannot afford to roll with Nelson against the likes of Paul, Curry, Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker, Damian Lillard and Mike Conley.
Rondo might not solve all their problems, but he at least gives the Mavericks a chance to overcome them. With Father Time bearing down on the 36-year-old Nowitzki, the shot at instant gratification makes this a risk worth taking, as ESPN's J.A. Adande noted:
This front office has a history of answering opportunity's knock. The Mavs were able to buy low on Chandler in 2010 and Ellis in 2013, then pried Parsons away from the Houston Rockets with a brilliantly structured contract offer sheet.
Chandler's acquisition helped fuel the Mavericks to the 2011 title. Getting Rondo for cheap—if he stays in Dallas long term, it's a door-busting bargain—could have the same effect this time round.
As long as that possible outcome is in play, this is an easy call for the Mavericks.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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