Have the Royals Done Enough to Ensure 2014 Run Is More Than a 1-Hit Wonder?

No longer is the American League Central the worst division in Major League Baseball, and the Kansas City Royals are partly to thank for lighting the fire.

The Royals’ stunning run to within one win of the World Series last fall alerted the rest of the division that it better get its act together, and the Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers, to an extent, have at least tried to answer with a whirlwind of offseason activity. Meanwhile, the Royals have not made a headlining trade or a head-turning free-agent acquisition.

While it seemed that the rest of the division might be chasing the Royals heading into 2015, it now appears Kansas City could be chasing as many as two teams for the division title:

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White Sox lineup is still too thin, Indians rotation, too, but the Royals haven’t gotten any better. Coming up small in a big off-season.

— anthony fenech (@anthonyfenech) December 18, 2014"

Steamer projections, courtesy of FanGraphs, for the AL Central have the Royals as the third-best team behind the Tigers and Indians, although those estimations might not yet be counting for significant offseason additions, such as ones the White Sox made. Still, it shows what the raw data thinks about a Royals team that was flawed last season but got hot when it mattered.

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

The Royals had one significant loss this offseason. James Shields was their No. 1 starter and is priced out of the team’s range as a free agent. He ate 227 innings and had a 3.21 ERA, 3.59 FIP and 124 ERA+. Shields was clearly the team’s top starter, and the Royals have no way of replacing him.

On Wednesday the Royals agreed to a two-year, $20 million deal with Edinson Volquez, according to CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman. Volquez put up an impressive season with the Pittsburgh Pirates, although there are reasons to question whether he can repeat that performance.

He benefited greatly from an improved batting average on balls in play (.263) after his marks were either well above .300 or around it in the previous four seasons. That kind of dip can be a one-year fluke for pitchers, much like it can be for hitters.

He also helped himself by not walking hitters (3.32 walks per nine innings) after three seasons of walking more than four per nine. Steamer projects both those categories to rise next year. Last season, Volquez’s FIP and xFIP were 4.15 and 4.20, respectively, and again Steamer expects those categories to see jumps in 2015.

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Even if those projections are off and Volquez can repeat his 2014, he is nowhere near the pitcher Shields was last year—Shields had a 3.7 FanGraphs WAR while Volquez was at 0.7. And no one in Kansas City’s rotation from last year projects to improve enough to absorb that loss, including soon-to-be 26-year-old Danny Duffy or 23-year-old Yordano Ventura, both of whom project to regress.

Rick Yeatts/Getty Images

Offensively, the Royals didn’t lose much, and what they did lose they were able to replace on the cheap, relatively speaking. They key departures are Billy Butler and Nori Aoki, but general manager Dayton Moore struck deals with Kendrys Morales to replace Butler and Alex Rios to replace Aoki. The Rios move is not a loss defensively and just about a wash offensively. Rios can be significantly better at the plate if he finds his lost power. 

Morales, who will be the team’s primary designated hitter, is a big question mark at two years and $17 million. He was an MVP candidate at one point in his career, but since an ankle injury in 2010 he has not been the same hitter. Last season Morales struggled to get acclimated after not signing with a team until June 8. That lack of a spring training period may have greatly hurt his production.

The deal is especially curious when you consider the Royals could have also gone after slugger Michael Morse, who ended up signing with the Miami Marlins for two years and $16 million:

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I mean, Michael Morse (.279/.336/.475 in tough hitters park) got less money than Kendrys Morales did.

— Rany Jazayerli (@jazayerli) December 17, 2014"

Elsewhere in the division, the White Sox have made significant upgrades. They added Jeff Samardzija to their rotation to pair with ace Chris Sale. They added closer David Robertson to the bullpen in a much more pitcher-friendly division than his former home, the AL East, as well as reliever Zach Duke. They plugged in first baseman Adam LaRoche, and they also stole Melky Cabrera from the Seattle Mariners on a team-friendly three-year, $42 million deal.

As of now, it is not inconceivable to envision the White Sox winning the AL Central.

M. Spencer Green/Associated Press

“I think that this is a club from top to bottom that you can now start that process, you can start to raise your level of expectations and you can dream a little bit,” White Sox executive vice president Kenny Williams said, via Jay Cohen of The Associated Press (h/t ABC News).

The Tigers still have holes, and their significant move to this point has been trading starter Rick Porcello to the Boston Red Sox for outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. It is a somewhat baffling trade for Detroit, but the team still holds David Price, Victor Martinez (whom it re-signed) and Miguel Cabrera, who can be a force despite some ankle/foot problems.

What the Royals have to hope for now is for their homegrown position players to use their 2014 postseasons as springboards to blossom in 2015. Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas had disappointing regular seasons, but both hitters found some success in the playoffs. It would also be nice if center fielder Lorenzo Cain used his postseason success to catapult his game to an All-Star level next year.

Then again, the Royals were not built on power. They were a team of speed, defense and a dominant bullpen. And all three of those things are still intact. That is what Kansas City has that the others in the division do not.

The Royals are going to have a payroll of more than $100 million, per The Kansas City Star, by far the largest in franchise history. Still, where it is allocated has left some confused and unimpressed:

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So that's now $27M for Alex Rios, Kendrys Morales and Edinson Volquez next year. This ends well.

— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) December 17, 2014"

If we can assume some offensive progression from guys like Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, Alcides Escobar and Salvador Perez, then this is a Royals club that can argue it will be better in 2015. The problem is, more teams within the division will be able to make the same argument come April.

The start of next season will be euphoric for the Royals, coming off a World Series appearance and garnering all the adoration that comes with that accomplishment. The problem: It is questionable to say the team has done enough to sustain that goodwill into next fall.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News, and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.