Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Complete Week 16 Preview for Cincinnati
The Cincinnati Bengals enter the unkind confines of prime time yet again on the Week 16 edition of Monday Night Football for a showdown with the Denver Broncos.
There is no doubt an encounter with Peyton Manning and the 11-3 Broncos provides the biggest test of the season for the AFC North-leading Bengals.
It is also quite a change of pace in comparison to last week's 30-0 win over the Cleveland Browns, a team that started a rookie quarterback. Coach Marvin Lewis touched on this dynamic in the week leading up to the contest, per STATS LLC, via ESPN.com:
"It's going to be a big shift, safe to say. It's a challenge. He gets everyone's attention in this building right away. The player he is, how he carries himself, how he runs things on the field -- it's going to be a great challenge for us. It's what it's supposed to be in December, just like this.
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At 9-4-1, the only way for the Bengals to keep a pair of nine-win teams behind them in the division is to take down the Broncos. This means not only a win over Manning but also a strong performance with the globe watching.
This game might just decide whether the Bengals go to the postseason. As Lewis says, that is how it is supposed to be, after all.
Week 15 Recap
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Last week was a strange one for Cincinnati.
Nobody can say the team does not show up to big divisional games now. A 30-0 win over the Cleveland Browns is proof enough.
The details of the win are what makes things complex. Cleveland started rookie Johnny Manziel under center, which was quite a break for the Bengals defense. He threw two picks that would have been three if not for a flag.
What gets lost in the great decision to give rookie back Jeremy Hill more playing time—which resulted in 148 yards and two scores—is the fact Andy Dalton threw for just 117 yards and an interception.
That sort of production will not stand a chance against Peyton Manning and Denver, especially if Hill is bottled up by a top-two rush defense.
In short, Dalton will need to be more decisive and accurate with the football than he was in Week 15. In that same vein, his receivers will need to do a better job of getting open—especially those not named A.J. Green.
There were positives in a lopsided victory last week, but some of the same old problems remain.
News and Notes
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Backup Plans
For Cincinnati defensive coordinator Paul Guenther, this year has been strange when it comes to his backups.
Due to injuries, Guenther leans more than ever on reserves such as linebacker Vincent Rey and tackle Brandon Thompson. In a story by ESPN.com's Coley Harvey, the leader of the defense seems to regret balancing first-team chemistry against the experience level of his backups:
"It can't be where a guy goes in there in Week 10 for the first time. One play costs you. One run fit against Pittsburgh costs you when you're not getting over the top of a puller. That's what happens. It's like any other job. You learn situational stuff. That's the main thing. It was a little bit of an anomaly this year with the amount of guys we had in and out. But hopefully [this year] is the exception.
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Injuries strike every team at this time of the season, but the delicate balance Guenther seeks is quite difficult to attain.
The reserves have come along nicely in recent weeks. Thompson is a force in the middle at times. Rey seems to be all over the field. Corner Dre Kirkpatrick stepped up in Terence Newman's absence last week and got an interception for his effort.
Look at it this way—at least some of the above names have enough game experience in time to encounter Peyton Manning.
Grounded Plans
A stereotype suggests the Bengals are a run-first team.
There is a great reason for that.
Cincinnati has won four of its last five in large part thanks to a transition to rookie back Jeremy Hill as the workhorse. In fact, the only loss in that stretch came at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers, where the LSU product only carried the ball eight times.
Even tackle Eric Winston, a new arrival, sees the importance of the run-first approach, per Harvey:
"More so than anything, it has to be a mindset. It has to be a thought and the way you carry yourself. Knowing what we did Sunday has to be who we are and not just a week-to-week thing. It has to be the badge you wear every week. That's when we're at our best. Even when I wasn't here, you noticed that this offense is at its best when it's running the ball effectively.
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It seems all too obvious that the Bengals will run the ball quite a lot Monday in order to keep Manning off the field.
For these Bengals, though, it seems the approach is much more than a simple strategy.
Quick Out of the Gates
For one reason or another, Cincinnati continues to struggle with prime-time games.
Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com provides a note in response to a reader that aptly sums up how the team can overcome such issues, though. "All they have to do is watch tape of the first quarter on Sunday," he wrote. "They played with such energy and intensity, they melted a team in their own building. With this team, for whatever reason, a fast start is the difference between winning and losing."
The difference between confidence and points on the board in comparison to a lackluster start is jarring. Think back to a 43-17 loss to the New England Patriots, when the Bengals fell in a 14-0 hole early. Or the 24-3 loss to the Browns on a Thursday by way of an early seven-point deficit.
Last week, though, the Bengals jumped out to a 10-0 lead in the first frame and never looked back.
The Bengals do not give up when they fall behind early, but it rarely leads to a positive outcome. With a visit from Manning on deck, this note will never be more important.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Jermaine Gresham | TE | Questionable |
| A.J. Green | WR | Questionable |
It sounds as if the toe issue that held Jermaine Gresham out last week will not do the same again this week. It is great news, really, as Cincinnati struggled to move the ball at all last week outside of targets to A.J. Green.
Speaking of Green, an illness has kept him out of practice, hence the tag.
*All injury reports are from ESPN.com. This slide will be updated when the official report is released.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Bengals Secondary vs. Peyton Manning
It sounds so simple.
Cincinnati ranks 11th against the pass this year. As mentioned earlier, even reserves such as Dre Kirkpatrick look strong as of late. It's a good time for the depth to flex its muscles now that the matchup with Peyton Manning has arrived.
Manning looks vulnerable, too. He may be 22-1 against the AFC North over the course of his career, but his last two games have produced one touchdown to two interceptions.
Granted, both of those games were still wins, but Cincinnati knows it can find success and force mistakes in the cold weather.
The key is to capitalize on mistakes. Everyone knows deep shots to Emmanuel Sanders are on the way. Ditto for quick-hitting plays to Demaryius Thomas. Kirkpatrick and Co. need to exploit mistakes and limit flags to keep Manning off the field.
A.J. Green vs. Denver Secondary
The Bengals will ask A.J. Green to do most of the heavy lifting with Mohamed Sanu near the end of a campaign that has been plagued with drop issues.
Green has 61 grabs for 959 yards and six scores on the year, but he brought in just five catches last week on 11 targets. Andy Dalton has now targeted his No. 1 option on 34.1 percent of the routes he has run this season, the highest tally in the league.
Feasible or not, Green needs to convert on more of these bountiful targets than he did last week.
It will not be any easier this week, though. Aqib Talib is a physical presence who makes life difficult, and Chris Harris Jr. is the No. 1 corner in the league over at Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Monday night, Green needs to have his best game of the season.
X-Factor of the Week: Jeremy Hill
As impressive as Jeremy Hill has been this season, he needs to put on another superb performance for the Bengals to stand a chance Monday.
The Denver defense ranks No. 2 overall against the rush this year, allowing an average of just 71.6 yards per game.
A total below or around that number by Hill will not cut it.
He needs to combat two quarterbacks Monday. An ability to move the chains would keep Manning wasting away on the sideline. It would also keep the Denver defense honest, which will open up more opportunities for Dalton through the air. Really, it would also keep the ball out of the quarterback's hands too, which worked out well last week.
It seems strange that what may be a season-defining game rests on the shoulders of a rookie. This seems to be what the staff wants, though, and they would not have made the investment in Hill in the first place if they did not trust him to get the job done.
All that remains is proper execution.
Prediction
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Peyton Manning has never lost to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Those Bengals continue to struggle on prime time.
Is that enough to write off Andy Dalton and Cincinnati all the way? Of course not, but it does not paint a pretty picture.
Many things need to go right for the Bengals to take down Denver. Manning needs to struggle, and the Cincinnati defense needs to have its best game of the year. Rookie Jeremy Hill needs to produce at a major clip against the No. 2-ranked rush defense.
Most important of all, the Bengals need to get ahead and stay ahead; otherwise everything comes down to Dalton's ability to outgun Manning.
That last note makes all of the difference. Dalton and the Bengals are a good team, but Denver seems downright built to handle them. The Broncos nullify the Bengals' biggest strength and force them to lean on their biggest weakness.
That sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Prediction: Broncos 35, Bengals 20
Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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