Patriots vs. Jets: What Are Experts Saying About New England?

The general regional sentiment suggests that this New England Patriots team is the most well-rounded Bill Belichick squad in years, perhaps since the undefeated 2007 rendition.  The Patriots' 41-13 division-clinching victory over the Miami Dolphins last Sunday, in which the Pats blitzed the Fins with 24 consecutive points in the third quarter, was an illustration of New England's highest potential when it plays well-rounded complementary football.

Of course, that effort had largely been absent for the previous 10 quarters, as the Pats slogged through a loss to Green Bay, a mostly shaky win against San Diego and a lackluster first half against Miami.  So while the vibes are extremely positive in Foxborough this weekend, Belichick will surely harp upon the need to peak with complete 60-minute efforts as the postseason approaches.

At the same time, these are the type of luxury-level complaints a team can have when it is 11-3 and in firm control of the race for home-field advantage in the AFC.  Though the Rex Ryan-era New York Jets have always presented a stiff test for the Pats, the talent disparity between the two squads is undeniable.  Thus, the Pats are mostly playing against their own standards this week, attempting to raise the already lofty expectations.

As the Patriots close in on a first-round bye for the fifth consecutive season, let's dissect some of the most insightful mainstream discourse surrounding the Pats that has emerged since their victory over the Dolphins.

Pro Football Focus: Jones Already Back in Form

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Chandler Jones missed six games while recovering from a hip injury but appeared no worse for wear during his return to the lineup last Sunday.  As Kiernan Hogan illustrates in Pro Football Focus' game review, Jones actually posted one of his best games of the season (1.5 sacks, forced fumble) while playing roughly two-thirds of the defensive snaps:

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Jones played 56 snaps in his first game back from a hip injury, and posted his second-best grade of the season. He earned positive marks in both run defense and pass rushing. All four of his tackles were stops, and he turned 40 pass rushes into two sacks, a hit, four hurries and a forced fumble.

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Though Miami's offensive line has been in shambles due to a string of injuries, it was impressive nonetheless to see Jones resemble his typically explosive self.  His six total quarterback pressures were his third-highest single-game total this season, but his two superior efforts (Week 2 vs. Vikings, Week 7 vs. Jets) came in games in which he played nearly every snap.

On a per-snap basis, this was likely Jones' second-best pass-rushing effort of the season, trailing only his performance against Minnesota.  According to PFF (subscription required), he finished 10th among 3-4 outside linebackers in pass-rushing productivity, just behind teammate Rob Ninkovich.

It may seem counterintuitive to suggest that the Pats could have been better off without Jones, but his absence was the impetus for the acquisition of Akeem Ayers.  The ex-Tennessee Titan has been a revelation during his time as a Patriot, logging 21 pressures in just six games. 

In Jones, Ayers and Ninkovich, the Pats finally have a reliable three-man rotation at the edge position.  Expect to see a more liberal substitution pattern to ensure that the three players (particularly Ninkovich, who has played nearly every snap the past two seasons) remain fresh into the postseason.

Mike Clay: Gray Back in RB Mix?

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Jonas Gray went for 11-62 and Blount 8-17, Vereen 6-5. So obviously Gray won't play next week for some reason.

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) December 14, 2014"

The Patriots' running back roulette wheel continued to spin last Sunday, with Jonas Gray making a surprise return after LeGarrette Blount's ineffectual 15-yard first half.  Gray, who had received just three carries in three games since his infamous missed meeting, sparked the offense with 52 yards on 5.6 yards per carry, all in the second half of the Dolphins game.

Ever since Stevan Ridley's season-ending injury in Week 6, the Pats have been as egalitarian as any backfield in the league.  Per Pro-Football-Reference, since Week 7, Gray has led the way with 84 touches. Shane Vereen sits second with 76, while LeGarrette Blount has 54.  There's plenty of skew in that, though—nearly half of Gray's touches came in that Colts game, while Blount has only been with the team since Week 12.

During the span since Blount's arrival, both he and Gray have been surprisingly boom-or-bust backs.  If they had enough carries to qualify, Blount and Gray would both rank among the top five backs in PFF's Elusive Rating metric, which accounts for missed tackles and yards after contact.  The two bruising backs rank high in the latter stat—Blount ranks first, while Gray is tied for 12th.

Vereen looks to have established a clear niche as a passing back, but he's been curiously inactive in the passing game, with four or fewer targets in four of his past five games.  As the Patriots continue to strive for offensive balance, look for a relatively even early-down split between Blount and Gray, at least until the backfield takes another unpredictable turn.

Manish Mehta: Idzik Responsible for Revis in Foxborough

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Jets GM John Idzik -- not Woody Johnson -- was responsible for getting rid of Darrelle Revis. #nyj http://t.co/uf3GdUxaet

— Manish Mehta (@MMehtaNYDN) December 16, 2014"

Part of being a Pats fan involves basking in the misery of the Jets, and Gang Green has provided even more opportunities for schadenfreude than usual during its abysmal 3-11 campaign.  New York's biggest blow came in the offseason, however, when Idzik reportedly rejected Rex Ryan's desires for the Jets to re-sign Darrelle Revis, according to the New York Daily News' Manish Mehta (h/t Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk).

The knowledge that New York was Revis' top choice likely makes the experience even more miserable for Jets fans.  No. 24 has been his typical lockdown self in Patriots garb, with a plus-19.1 cumulative grade that ranks second among all cornerbacks.  Revis has also conceded a reception just once every 15.1 snaps in coverage, the third-best mark in the league at his position.

Meanwhile, injuries and poor offseason roster construction have left the Jets with arguably the league's most anonymous secondary.  Career special teamer Darrin Walls and undrafted rookie Marcus Williams currently sit atop the cornerback depth chart.  2013 first-rounder Dee Milliner tore his Achilles in October, while free-agent signing Dimitri Patterson did not even make the roster after he bizarrely went AWOL.

The Patriots have not been perfect themselves in settling internal personnel issues, with the miscommunications surrounding the Wes Welker negotiations providing the most prominent example.  Still, New York's refusal to engage Revis in conversation ranks as one of the offseason's biggest gaffes—a blunder that has changed the fortunes of both franchises this season.

Field Yates: Gronk for MVP?

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As the MVP race takes shape, most have pinpointed Tom Brady as a top-tier candidate, along with Aaron Rodgers, J.J. Watt and Peyton Manning.  However, ESPN Insider Field Yates (subscription required) believes that Brady's top target, Rob Gronkowski, has actually been the catalyst behind New England's post-September turnaround and thus deserves more serious MVP consideration.  His argument is quite comprehensive, but one particular example from last Sunday illustrates Gronk's impeccable ability to indirectly affect every play:

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On a third-and-goal play from the Dolphins' 3-yard line, the Patriots flexed Gronk out wide right, with Brandon LaFell in the slot. The Dolphins ushered athletic linebacker Dion Jordan out to hover over Gronk, with safety Reshad Jones a few yards farther back. There was no disguising it: Miami was double-covering Gronk, leaving seven defenders in the box and seven blockers to account for them. Brady, seeing this, checked to a running play and handed off to Shane Vereen for a three-yard score sprung by the attention paid to Gronk. That's just one example of the Patriots' ability to dictate matchups in their favor with Gronkowski.

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Yates' article is worth a read, as he details New England's vast red-zone discrepancies with a healthy Gronk, as well as the Catch-22 opposing defenses face when determining personnel packages to combat a player who is at once an extra receiver and a sixth offensive lineman.  The current nature of the sport means that the quarterback will have a disproportionate impact compared to any other single player, but among non-QBs, Gronkowski (along with Watt) best simulates a quarterback-like impact.

Although there's already been an incalculable amount of ink and bandwidth spilled on Gronk's impact, humor me one more stat: According to Pro-Football-Reference, Brady's passer rating was 79.1 over the first month, roughly equivalent to what Arizona's Drew Stanton has posted this year.  Since full-speed Gronk has re-emerged, Brady's passer rating is 106.9, a mark that would rank third in the league this season.

Gronkowski is obviously not the only reason for that improvement, but it seems reasonable to argue that he is the primary one.  It seems blasphemous to suggest that another Patriot could surpass Brady in value, and while it might be too far a jump to suggest that for Gronk, he certainly comes close.

Aaron Schatz: Patriots Are the Top Team in Weighted DVOA

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Plenty of conventional stats suggest that the Patriots have been the NFL's best team since October.  In that span, New England's 9-1 record is tied for the best in the league, and its plus-172 point differential is over eight touchdowns better than the next closest competitor, Green Bay.  Advanced analytics now agree with that perception, as Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz notes in the site's updated DVOA rankings:

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The New England Patriots have finally risen past the Denver Broncos and into the No. 1 spot in our weighted DVOA ratings. This is the first time since Cincinnati led the league way back in Week 4 that a team other than Denver is No. 1 in either DVOA or weighted DVOA. The Broncos are still No. 1 in overall DVOA because of New England's poor 2-2 start that included three games with negative single-game DVOA. But there's no question that the Patriots have been the better team since midseason.

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Weighted DVOA places more emphasis on recent games in an attempt to illustrate trends in recent performance.  As Schatz alludes to above, New England's poor first month still has the team second behind Denver in the season-long rankings. The current gap is large enough that the Broncos will likely remain in first through the end of the year.

Analytics and mainstream thought don't always agree, but most of the former measurements have New England as the best team in the league.  PFR's Simple Rating System puts the Patriots a very clear first, while FiveThirtyEight's Elo ratings have the Patriots in a tie with Seattle headed into Week 15. 

It's becoming increasingly clear that Denver and New England have a stranglehold on the AFC.  Football Outsiders' simulations suggest that either the Patriots or Broncos represent the conference in the Super Bowl nearly 75 percent of the time, while Advanced Football Analytics pegs the probability at a whopping 83 percent.  For now, it appears the Pats hold a slight edge over their stiffest competition.

*Unless otherwise noted, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).