5 Bold Predictions for the San Francisco 49ers' Week 16 Matchup

The last time the San Francisco 49ers played a meaningless regular-season football game was 2010.  After falling to 5-10 in a Week 16 loss to the St. Louis Rams, head coach Mike Singletary was fired and Jim Tomsula took over.  The team, free from the pressure and pain of the Singletary era, went out and played its best game of the season, beating the Arizona Cardinals 38-7.

You have to go back to the year before to find the last time the 49ers played a meaningless Week 16 game.  Having been eliminated from the playoffs by a 27-13 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, Mike Singletary’s 49ers played out the stretch with two comfortable wins over the Detroit Lions and St. Louis Rams to finish with their first non-losing season since 2002.

The last two times the 49ers have found themselves with nothing to play for, they’ve finished the season undefeated.  This is the first time we’ve seen that situation in the Jim Harbaugh era, and it could well be the last.  How will the 49ers respond this time?

While the game is meaningless for the 49ers, it’s certainly not for the San Diego Chargers.  Their loss to the Denver Broncos last week—a failure of the offense more than anything else—has put them in a hole in the AFC playoff race.  The 49ers can help send the Chargers packing with a win, and wins by Baltimore and Pittsburgh.  They’re where the 49ers were last week—trying desperately to save their season.

Will the desperation of the Chargers be enough to overcome the meaninglessness of the 49ers?  Or will the weight of expectations hamper the Chargers against a 49ers team playing for pride?  Let’s make some predictions as to how this game will play out.

Colin Kaepernick: Two Touchdown Passes, 100 Yards Rushing

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Colin Kaepernick’s game against the Seattle Seahawks, while unremarkable on the grand scheme of things, was actually his best day ever against his rivals to the north.  Kaepernick went 11-of-19 for 141 yards and, most importantly, no interceptions.  It’s the first day he’s ever had against Seattle without turning the ball over—and against a defense that has been that stingy, it’s a sign of improvement.

After two horrible weeks in a row, just getting down to “pretty bad” would have been an improvement for Kaepernick, but he actually did more than that—he earned his first positive grade from Pro Football Focus (subscription required) since Week 12, and that’s not adjusted for opponent strength—the site graded Kaepernick at just about average against a top-five defense, which is a very positive sign.

San Diego does not have a top-five defense.  While the Chargers are middle-of-the-road against the run, they’re very poor against the pass.  They’re only giving up 228 passing yards per game, which ranks ninth-best in the league, but that number’s inflated by an insane 60-yard passing day by the New York Jets. 

Take them out of the equation and the Chargers are allowing 241 passing yards per game, which is more middle-of-the-pack—19th-best, as a matter of fact.

Football Outsiders had them as the 25th-best passing defense when adjusting for situation, and that feels about right.  This is much less of a test than Seattle posed.

Of course, Oakland wasn’t a tough test either, but Kaepernick had a bad day then.  However, I think Kaepernick has turned a bit of a corner and will go back to the quarterback he looked like before the bye week, as opposed to what he’s looked like since then.

Part of this is thanks to Kaepernick’s legs, which came alive for the first time this season.  Kaepernick ran nine times for 46 yards, including five designed runs.  It’s his most runs since Week 12 and his most designed runs since back in Week 3.  It’s almost like the 49ers have remembered that Kaepernick’s strength is his ability to make plays on the move, rather than being a pure pocket passer.

With nothing to play for, I think the 49ers will let Kaepernick be Kaepernick.  I then think he’ll flash the skills that led the 49ers to give him a huge contract this offseason.

Vernon Davis: 0 Receptions

Michael Zito/Associated Press

This has been a lost season for Vernon Davis.  The two-time Pro Bowler, who held out at the beginning of the season in an attempt to get a larger contract, has 25 receptions for 236 yards this season.  That has him tied for 33rd for most receptions by a tight end this season, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.  The 49ers are giving Davis Greg Olsen money and getting Levine Toilolo production—that’s not good.

If anything, he’s been trending worse as the season has gone along.  He had 14 receptions before the bye, and only 11 since then.  His high-yardage marker since the bye?  It came against Oakland and was just 26 yards.  It’s been a nightmare of a season.

He put up his first zero-catch game of the season against Seattle last week, and I’m not so sure he’ll bounce back against the Chargers.  They’re not bad against tight ends in general—they held Julius Thomas to just one reception last week, for example.  Yes, they struggled against Rob Gronkowski, but Davis is no Gronkowski.

I also think we’ll see more of Garrett Celek this week—he had a big catch against Seattle and really excelled blocking in the running game.  So, partially because of San Diego’s defense and partially because of experimenting with new players, I think Davis will get blanked against the Chargers.

It’s worth noting that the 49ers can save about $5.8 million against the salary cap next season by cutting Davis, per Spotrac.  I don’t think it’s by any means a guarantee that they’ll take advantage of that; after all, Davis was a Pro Bowler as recently as last season.  It might be something to keep an eye on this offseason, however.

49ers’ Run Game: Not Much

Gail Burton/Associated Press

The 49ers may not have any really healthy players at running back entering this game.  Frank Gore suffered a concussion late in the second quarter and did not return to the game.  With this week’s game on Saturday, there may simply not be enough time for Gore to pass the concussion test and suit up.

Carlos Hyde also left the game with an injured ankle and has an MRI scheduled.  There’s no guarantee he’ll be able to go Saturday, either.

That would just leave Alfonso Smith as the only healthy running back, and if that’s the case, the 49ers aren’t going to get much of a ground game going against the Chargers. 

Smith’s career high for yards in a season is 102, for the Cardinals back in 2011.  He has had two days in his career where he’s received at least 10 carries—he ran for 54 yards against Seattle in 2011 and 26 against St. Louis last season.  He’s a warm body at the NFL level.

Now, he never had the likes of Joe Staley and Mike Iupati to run behind before, but there’s only so much that can do.  If Hyde can’t go, then the 49ers won’t have much of a running game to speak of this week.

The one potential bright sign for Hyde’s availability is this—both Hyde and Chris Borland are waiting on MRIs.  The 49ers went out and signed Desmond Bishop to replace Borland, but made no corresponding move to replace Hyde.  This might be a sign that the 49ers are more hopeful Hyde or Gore will be able to go on Saturday.  That would be a huge boost for the 49ers’ run game.

Philip Rivers: Multiple Interceptions

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press

The Chargers passing game took a blow this week with news that Keenan Allen had broken his collarbone against Denver, per Ricky Henne of Chargers.com (via Shane Theodore of SB Nation's Bolts from the Blue), making him very unlikely to play against the 49ers on Saturday.

This is not good news for Philip Rivers. 

Allen was the most prolific receiver for the Chargers this year, with 121 receptions.  Malcolm Floyd is a more than adequate replacement as a No. 1 receiver, but then you have to find a No. 2 to replace Floyd, and no one else on the team has really stepped up to provide confidence in that role. 

Eddie Royal is listed in your NFL-themed dictionary next to “inconsistent,” and we’ll see more snaps from Seyi Ajirotutu and possibly ex-CFL player Dontrelle Inman to flesh out the Chargers’ passing offense.

With Rivers’ top target out, things aren’t looking good for him.  Rivers has had two pretty bad days in a row, struggling against the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos.  He’s thrown at least one interception in each of the past four games—his only turnover-free day since the bye week was versus Oakland in Week 11.

While Denver and New England are better teams overall than the 49ers are, that’s not due to defensive deficiencies.  The 49ers’ pass defense is just as stingy as either of those AFC leaders, and it now has one less weapon to worry about.

I think Rivers is going to throw two interceptions and give the 49ers good field position—this ties in with the two-touchdown performance I’m predicting from Kaepernick, as it’s easier to throw touchdown passes in good field position!  I think Rivers will get more yards than Kaepernick will, don’t get me wrong—but he’ll be the one turning the ball over when all is said and done.

Final Prediction

John Froschauer/Associated Press

Don’t be overly fooled by the fact that the Chargers are still in playoff contention, while the 49ers are not.  In the NFC, we’re likely to see an 11-win team miss the field, while nine wins might be enough to grab a wild-card slot in the AFC.  I don’t think the 49ers would be a playoff team in the AFC, but they’d still be alive, just as the Chargers are.

I’m not even fully convinced the Chargers are a better team than the 49ers are—they’re really San Francisco’s mirror image; a very good offense saddled with a very bad defense.  If the two teams could combine like Voltron, maybe California would have a playoff team this year—a team with San Diego’s offense and San Francisco’s defense would be a dangerous one indeed.

Sadly, that’s not how anything works, and so we’ll have two playoff-caliber units playing against one another Saturday when the Chargers have the ball and then two disappointing units clashing when the 49ers are on offense.

I think the 49ers get off their three-game losing streak this week.  They showed a lot more fight and determination in Sunday’s loss than they did in their previous two games, and I think that will continue into their final homestand.  Maybe they’re auditioning for their new coach.  Maybe they’re fighting to keep their old one. Maybe they’re just fighting for pride.

One way or another, I see them fighting and winning this one.  San Diego will be mathematically eliminated on Sunday, thanks to a 49ers win the day before.

Prediction: San Francisco 24, San Diego 21

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.