Best Potential Trade Packages, Scenarios and Landing Spots for Lance Stephenson
Merry Lance Stephenson Can Be Traded From the Charlotte Hornets Day!
Midnight on Dec. 15 has come and gone, which means the struggling shooting guard can officially be dealt from the team that signed him this past summer. And according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein, that's something the plunging Hornets will consider doing.
Poor point totals (10.4 per game) and shooting percentage (38.9) in mind, Stephenson is not immovable. He's on the books for a reasonable $9 million annually through 2015-16, at which point his incumbent team has the option of bidding him farewell.
But that doesn't mean it will be easy, nor does it promise the Hornets a palatable return.
"If they’re already talking about moving Stephenson before he can be traded, it seems likely that he will end the season somewhere other than Charlotte," Sean Highkin wrote for NBC Sports. "His trade market will be interesting going forward—he’s an extremely talented two-way player, but he has been inconsistent his entire career and whispers of chemistry issues in Indiana might give teams pause."
Making Stephenson available this soon into his time with the organization puts the Hornets at a disadvantage. That's something to keep in mind as we come up with proposals. This isn't the Stephenson of last season, who earned a semi-lucrative contract. The Hornets will not be receiving a king's ransom in return for his departure.
Who and what can they receive? That's why we're here.
Prepare to enter the Lance Stephenson Trade Scenarios Thunderdome.
Reunion in Indy
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Charlotte Hornets Get: SG C.J. Miles and PF Luis Scola
Indiana Pacers Receive: SG Lance Stephenson
Allowing Stephenson to walk remains one of the Pacers' biggest mistakes of the offseason, even though the turbulent shooting guard is off to a rocky start in Charlotte.
With Paul George likely out for all of 2014-15 and George Hill still watching from the sidelines, they could use his offense and defense and familiarity with their schemes. He also puts them back in the playoff picture, which they're four games outside of at this writing.
According to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, the Pacers are interested in making a reunion happen. The Hornets' unwillingness to include a first-round pick has slowed the process, but this is the Pacers' chance to become whole again in time for next season.
Flipping Scola and Miles is a small price to pay. The former is on an expiring deal and likely won't be back for 2015-16 unless he takes a pay cut, and Miles has underperformed since inking a four-year, $18 million pact over the summer.
Evading a first-round buffer, meanwhile, is huge for the Hornets here. Their power forward rotation—which already includes Marvin Williams—suddenly approaches adequate by adding Scola, and Miles is a cheap wing scorer who buried at least 38 percent of his long balls in each of the two previous seasons.
Charlotte ranks 27th in points scored per 100 possessions and 29th in three-point conversion rate (30.8 percent). Any offensive firepower is an immediate boon for its otherwise plummeting stock.
Really, this deal is built around two teams erasing offseason mistakes. Indiana and Charlotte might as well help each other complete the closest thing to a mulligan NBA squads get.
Back to Brooklyn
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Charlotte Hornets Get: SG Joe Johnson and PF Mirza Teletovic
Brooklyn Nets Get: C Bismack Biyombo, SG Gary Neal, SG Lance Stephenson, PF Marvin Williams and 2016 top-10 protected first-round draft pick
It's only fitting for Stephenson to play for the Brooklyn Nets—not because he was born and attended high school in Brooklyn, but because Mikhail Prokhorov's tax-trodden investment is looking to trade its way out of pricey perdition.
Brooklyn is open to fielding offers for Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Johnson, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein and Ohm Youngmisuk, a rumor general manager Billy King has since (halfheartedly) denied.
“My job is to listen to people and to make calls and to make calls back,” he said, per the New York Post's Tim Bontemps. “Does that mean we’re having a fire sale? Absolutely not. I’m doing my job, as well as asking the players and the coaches to do their job. But my job is to work the phones, see what’s available."
Operating under the accurate assumption that NBA general managers aren't wholly honest, this is front office-speak for "call me, beep me, if you wanna reach me."
Stephenson, Williams, Neal and Biyombo don't collectively earn what Johnson will this season ($24.9 million). Neal and Biyombo can be sent packing this summer, and the latter makes it easier for the Nets to unload Lopez. Williams' contract is non-guaranteed for 2015-16, and he would be a solid replacement for Teletovic, who will command a new deal in July.
Acquiring Stephenson doesn't hurt Brooklyn's cap space beyond next season. His pact has a team option for summer 2016, when Johnson's contract would expire, giving the Nets roughly 18 months to see whether the 24-year-old can be part of their future. That first-rounder is a massive get for a team that doesn't own the rights to its own pick until 2019 as well.
Pulling the trigger is a no-brainer for the Hornets. They net an offensively apt shooting guard who has shot at least 37.5 percent from deep in each of the last four seasons, not to mention a burgeoning stretch 4 in Teletovic. While his three-point success rate has declined, he drilled 39 percent of his long balls in 2013-14.
Paying Johnson $48-plus million over the next two seasons isn't ideal, since it precludes the Hornets from being free-agency players. But his contract expires before the expected cap boon in 2016, and if Al Jefferson, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kemba Walker and Teletovic all stick around, they become a contingent that can do some damage in the Eastern Conference.
Mutually beneficial trades are hard to construct. This is one of the few exceptions.
Motor City Throws a Curveball
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Charlotte Hornets Get: PF Jonas Jerebko and SF Josh Smith
Detroit Pistons Get: SG Gerald Henderson and SG Lance Stephenson
Here's to a jointly risky gambit.
The Pistons have been trying to pawn off the three years and $40.5 million remaining on Smith's contract for some time. Wojnarowski says the Sacramento Kings—despite now-departed head coach Mike Malone's objections—tried to acquire him over the offseason, though nothing ever came to fruition.
Landing Stephenson does a few things for Stan Van Gundy's crew. It doesn't bolster its subaverage floor-spacing model, but it should strengthen its 19th-ranked defense. More importantly, it breaks up the Smith and Greg Monroe pairing that's failed fantastically.
Detroit is being outscored by 6.7 points per 100 possessions when both are on the floor, and Monroe's considered a lock to leave after signing his qualifying offer this past summer. Ridding themselves of Smith paves way for the Pistons to retain Monroe, who's a nightly double-double threat—per-game averages of 15 points and 9.2 rebounds—and fringe star.
Smith would be able to play the 4 in Charlotte. There's more than enough room for him and Jefferson to operate from the block, and Smith posted a 17.8 PER as a power forward last season, per 82games.com.
Taking on Jerebko also gives the Hornets the expiring pact of someone who can help improve their collective three-point percentage. Jerebko is putting in just 32.4 percent of his bombs in 2014-15, but that's an upgrade over Charlotte's 30.8 percent mark. Plus, he found nylon on 41.9 percent of his deep looks in 2013-14.
Absorbing Smith's contract is the real risk here. The Hornets would have to believe he, Walker, Jefferson and Kidd-Gilchrist can all coexist while giving them a foundation worth building upon.
Still, Smith is someone who can pad the stat lines with points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals when playing at his peak. He might be a danger worth embracing considering how much Stephenson hasn't done.
Thunder Try to Strike Lightning
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Charlotte Hornets Get: PG Reggie Jackson and C Kendrick Perkins
Oklahoma City Thunder Get: PG Brian Roberts and SG Lance Stephenson
Jackson is going to get paid this summer, and history doesn't support the notion that it will be Oklahoma City doing the paying. The Thunder already have a superstar point guard in Russell Westbrook, don't need Jackson's ball-dominating offense with Kevin Durant back and they avoided ponying up the cash when it came to Jeff Green, James Harden and Kevin Martin.
Trading for Stephenson would be more their style. He's earning less than Perkins this season and will likely be earning less in 2015-16 ($9 million) than Jackson will command as a restricted free agent, making him a more affordable spark plug off the bench. His team option for 2016-17 also allots the Thunder maximum flexibility when Durant hits free agency.
While Stephenson doesn't stretch defenses, Jackson doesn't either. The former at least defends and rebounds like a small forward; he's grabbing a higher percentage of available boards (12.4) than both Durant (11.0) and Serge Ibaka (12.0).
This is a trade the Hornets only broker if they're prepared to invest in Jackson beyond this season—a reasonable assumption considering he upgrades their backcourt defense and allows Walker to play more shooting guard, where he's posting an 18.3 player efficiency rating, according to 82games.com.
Starting Jackson and Walker also opens a wealth of offensive options, allowing the Hornets to run a more perimeter-oriented attack that diminishes the burden placed upon Jefferson, whose usage rate is the highest (28.0 percent) among qualified centers. That includes players like Marc Gasol, Al Horford and Andre Drummond.
Three-point shooting remains an issue after this deal, but Jackson is banging in more of his treys (23.3 percent) than Stephenson (16.7). That he could also be the long-term building block Charlotte apparently doesn't figure Stephenson for renders this scenario one of the most sensible.
Stephenson Goes Hollywood
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Charlotte Hornets Get: SF Matt Barnes, SG Reggie Bullock, C Meyers Leonard, SF Dorell Wright and 2016 first-round draft pick (via Portland)
Los Angeles Clippers Get: SG Gary Neal, SG Lance Stephenson and PF Thomas Robinson
Portland Trail Blazers Get: PF Spencer Hawes and SG J.J. Redick
Three-team blockbusters aren't super common, but the Clippers do have interest in Stephenson, according to Wojnarowski. And while their splits with and without Redick are absurd, they aren't going to land Stephenson without forfeiting what little assets they have.
Besides, the Clippers can get offense elsewhere. Stephenson can defend both guard positions and posts a higher rebounding rate (12.4) than Barnes and Redick combined (10.5). Neal also replaces a lot of what Redick does: shoot threes. He's hitting a higher percentage (44.4) of his spot-up bombs than his theoretical predecessor (42.2).
Backup center remains a point of issue after this deal, but at 6'9", Robinson can jump at the 5 for certain stretches. Opponents are also hitting a lower percentage of their shots (38.9) when being defended by him compared to Hawes (48.2).
Portland strengthens its bench considerably here. Hawes is the three-point-shooting big it doesn't yet have, and Redick will pump in points like it's his job (it is). Both are sound additions to a second unit that still ranks 21st in offensive efficiency, per HoopStats.com.
They're affordable as well, which is uber-important knowing LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews, Damian Lillard, Robin Lopez and Nicolas Batum all need new contracts in the coming summers.
For the Hornets, this is more about the pick than anything. Bullock gives them another shooting guard prospect to evaluate in conjunction with P.J. Hairston, and Leonard is a lottery pick who provides the team with insurance should one or both of Jefferson and Biyombo leave in free agency.
Not one of the four players they are acquiring is under contract beyond next season, meaning the Hornets will have plenty of wiggle room when the cap presumably explodes in 2016.
That flexibility, coupled with a first-round draft pick, may be just what the Hornets need as they prepare for another reboot.
*Stats via Basketball-Reference and NBA.com unless otherwise cited and are accurate as of games played on Dec. 14, 2014. Salary information and draft-pick commitments via ShamSports and RealGM.
