Can Dallas Mavericks Snag Top-4 Seed in Western Conference?
The Dallas Mavericks earned the title of the most dangerous eighth seed in the 2014 NBA playoffs by pushing the eventual champion San Antonio Spurs to seven games. This year, the expectations are higher, but the Mavs have so far failed to establish themselves among the very elite in the Western Conference.
Homecourt advantage in the playoffs is the ultimate award for a gruelling 82-game regular season grind. While the 17-8 Mavs find themselves occupying the seventh seed right now, they are just 1.5 games outside the top-four. A crucial prerequisite to securing a higher seed is taking games off those who are above you in the standings, which is something Dallas has not managed to do.
The Mavs are 0-6 this season against top-eight teams in the West and 17-2 against the rest of the league. They have done a good job beating up bad teams, which is reflected in their fifth-best point differential, but have come up short against the elite.
Following their 105-98 loss to the Golden State Warriors on Dec. 13, the Mavericks were once again scratching their heads. The game was supposed to be a measuring stick for the team's progress, but concluded as a one-sided beating delivered by the hottest team in the NBA.
While the Mavericks didn't have Chandler Parsons, that wasn't the primary reason for their loss. The Mavericks surrendered a 21-point deficit in the very first quarter, which is an almost impossible hole to dig out of against a team of Golden State's caliber. Following the game, Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle acknowledged a missed opportunity.
"I've got to get these guys better prepared to play early," Carlisle said, according to MavsOutsider.com's Bryan Gutierrez. "That's all part of being a team. It's disappointing when you have a shot at the best team in basketball and the first quarter goes the way that it did."
Dallas seemingly channels the rage caused by losses to top Western teams, and unleashes it on weaker foes. It makes sense, since the Mavericks' offense is simply an unstoppable force when facing inferior opposition that isn't organized defensively.
The likes of the Memphis Grizzlies and the Warriors, both elite defensive sides, have found ways to effectively slow down Dallas' league-leading offense. Both teams packed the paint and sacrificed perimeter looks, hoping that a streaky shooting team will eventually go cold.
Even if the Mavs were to continue to struggle against top teams in the West, ESPNDallas.com's Tim MacMahon provided some perspective on the issue, referencing Dallas' 2010-11 championship team:
"If you'll recall, many pundits picked the Mavs to lose in the first round of those playoffs. Few, if any, projected the Mavs to get by the two-time defending champion Los Angeles Lakers in the second round.
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There was sound logic in those predictions. The Mavs were 2-15 against the other West playoff teams after New Year's Day that season.
MacMahon brings up a great point, as the 2010-11 team ended up securing the third seed despite a slow start against the Western elite. However, the conference has only gotten stronger since then, and any streak of bad games can lead to significantly more punitive punishment in the standings this time around.
When the playoffs roll around, the regular season record between teams is generally irrelevant. That will likely be the case this year as well, but Dallas will still have to pick up some statement wins against the West to climb the standings.
How Important Is Homecourt Advantage?
The importance of having Game 7 on your home floor has become increasingly more important in the West.
Last season, three out of the four first-round series in the West went to the final game. The series between the Houston Rockets and the Portland Trail Blazers was a missed Damian Lillard buzzer beater away from going the distance as well. In all three of last year's seven-game thrillers the team with the higher seed came out victorious.
With such fierce competition and potential for upsets, securing even just the fourth seed in the conference could end up awarding homecourt advantage in later rounds.
Recent history would also suggest that a high seed is necessary for serious contenders.
The last team outside the top-four to win an NBA championship was the sixth-seeded 1995 Rockets. Other than the eighth-seeded New York Knicks in the lockout-shortened 1999 season, no other bottom-four playoff team has managed to make the NBA Finals since then. When the Mavs made the NBA Finals in 2006 and 2011, they snagged a top-four seed both times.
No one would be knocked off their chair if a lower seed in the West ends up winning the championship this year—it's really that even. Still, going through a murderer's row of a conference, you want every advantage in your corner.
As far as hoping for more favorable opposition goes, that really doesn't exist in the West. The Oklahoma City Thunder could very well end up as the eighth seed this year, which would make the No. 1 spot in the conference anything but lucrative.
Can Dallas Finish Top-Four?
There are a lot of question marks when it comes to Dallas' legitimacy as a title contender. While they are certainly valid, it's still too early to ponder the issue.
Any team that is putting up historically record-breaking numbers offensively has a puncher's chance to beat out the competition. The Mavs still have almost three-quarters of a season to plug their defensive holes, and it remains to be seen if they can be solid enough on that end of the floor.
Either way, fighting for a higher seed will be crucial. While elite Western powerhouses have been getting the best of Dallas, the Mavs will continue to blow away lesser teams. Those victories count as much as any other win in the regular season.
A lot of teams in the West have outperformed expectations, while Dallas has recently drawn skepticism. Despite that, Carlisle's team is very much in the race for a top-four seed.
Ultimately, the odds are stacked against Dallas. The Southwest Division is by far the toughest in the league, and the schedule will not be doing the Mavs any favors. Injuries can certainly come into play, as they have already with Portland losing Robin Lopez. If Dallas can jump at these types of opportunities, they can certainly make a push for a high seed.
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis
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