San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle: What Are Experts Saying About San Francisco?

The San Francisco 49ers’ season continues its limp to the finish line with one of its toughest matchups of the entire season—a rematch against the Seattle Seahawks, this time in its stadium.

The first matchup, two weeks ago, was a disaster for the 49ers.  They failed to score a touchdown for the first time all season and saw their offense, led by Colin Kaepernick, put in their worst performance of the season.

If anything, things have only gotten worse since then.  A matchup against the Oakland Raiders, which looked so easy on paper, turned into a nightmare.  Turnovers, both on the first play from scrimmage, and at the end of the game, crippled the 49ers’ offense, and uncharacteristic failings by the defense allowed the Raiders to pull off the upset.

The two losses have all but mathematically eliminated the 49ers from the playoff race this season.  With a loss on Sunday, coupled with a Detroit Lions win over the Minnesota Vikings, the 49ers will officially be out of the picture.

As can be expected, the losses have triggered a landslide of talk about the future of the franchise, with much of it pointed right at head coach, Jim Harbaugh.  As fans and the media begin to write off the 2014 season, all signs point to a tumultuous offseason.

We’re not there yet, though—there are still three more games to play, including a big divisional rivalry matchup this week.  Let’s go around the league a bit and see what the experts are saying about the 49ers leading up to this rematch.

Paul Guitierrez: Pete Carroll Backs Rival Jim Harbaugh

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

With the team management allegedly trying to figure out whether or not to trade or fire coach Jim Harbaugh, another expert on coaching has come out in support of the beleaguered 49ers coach—Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll.

In his conference call with Bay Area reporters, Carroll sung Harbaugh’s praises:

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I've never seen him not be a really good coach.  He's a fantastic football coach. I've watched him do all the stuff he did at Stanford and turned that program around. What he's done at the Niners, I know that he's a great football coach.  Not everybody likes everybody or gets along with everybody but sometimes you don't see the magic that guys have. I think he's a fantastic football coach; he's proven that. There's no question about that.

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Carroll is absolutely right—Harbaugh’s been great at every stop he’s made on his coaching tour, and whoever has his services in 2015 will have a high quality head coach.  Harbaugh has the highest winning percentage among active coaches at 43-17-1, even trumping Bill Belichick’s 209-108 record.

Here’s my simple argument against firing Harbaugh this offseason—ex-49ers coach Mike Singletary is rumored to be in the head coaching mix in 2015, per Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (h/t Conor Orr of NFL.com).  This is a coach the 49ers felt they couldn’t win with, so they fired him and went and got Harbaugh.  Coaches who the 49ers have already decided are significantly worse than Harbaugh are getting attention for head coaching slots; finding someone equally as good as Harbaugh would be an extraordinarily difficult task.

David Neumann: Spreading the Blame for the 49ers' Offensive Problems

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

Over at Niners Nation, David Neumann has a good break down of the source of the 49ers’ offensive woes this season, pointing out that you can’t just blame a single player or unit for the issues the team has faced.

He pointed out the fact that Frank Gore is on pace for the lowest yards-per-carry figure and yards-per-game figure of his career, as he’s finally apparently lost that extra step, and that Carlos Hyde hasn’t stepped in and instantly provided Pro Bowl-caliber running.

Neumann claimed the 49ers receivers have struggled with drops—only Andrew Luck has been victimized more than Colin Kaepernick has, per Sporting Charts—and the lack of a deep threat thanks to Vernon Davis’ complete no-show in 2014.

He pointed out the utter lack of continuity on the 49ers’ offensive line, as the 49ers will start their seventh combination of linemen on Sunday after having the same five men play on the line in all but four games from 2012-2013.

It was also stated that Kaepernick’s deep-ball accuracy has fallen off a cliff, completing them at only half the rate he did in 2013.

He’s right, of course—the sputtering offense is too complicated to be explained away by one poor player or unit.  All of these problems, which may be minor issues in and of themselves, serve to strengthen and amplify the other ones.  The poor offensive line doesn’t give the running game any room to work.  No running game means the passing game is forced to try higher-risk throws, which fail.  Less-accurately thrown balls are harder to catch, leading to drops.

It all begins with the offensive line—any fix of the offense has to start with getting healthier up front.  That should have a knock-on effect to all the other units on offense.  It won’t be enough to single-handedly “fix” Kaepernick or the running game, but it would help when trying to figure out just what they’re doing wrong.

Matt Barrows: Poor Returns on 49ers’ 2013 Draft

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

With the news that Carter Bykowski has been signed by the Minnesota Vikings, and thus taken off of the 49ers’ practice squad, Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee took the opportunity to revisit the 2013 draft class, which looks less good at this point than it did last season.

He pointed out that only Eric Reid, the first-round pick, has provided much in the way of impact for the 49ers.  Marcus Lattimore, B.J. Daniels, Carter Bykowski and Marcus Cooper are no longer with the club, and other players—like Tank Carradine and Quinton Patton—have struggled to see playing time.

I think, in retrospect, the worst pick in the draft might be tight end Vance McDonald, taken with the 55th pick overall.  He’s not the worst player in the draft class, but 2013 looks like it had quite a few quality tight ends the 49ers could have taken instead of McDonald.

In the third round, Kansas City took Travis Kelce out of Cincinnati, and Washington took Jordan Reed out of Florida.  Both players have over 50 receptions and 650 receiving yards, while McDonald has just 10 catches for 149 yards.

It’s interesting that, in the apparent struggle for power between Trent Baalke and Jim Harbaugh, that people seem to claim that Baalke is a great general manager.  He’s definitely very solid—he did take Eric Reid, and of course was the architect of the great 2010 and 2011 draft classes.  Those brought in players like Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati, NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, Colin Kaepernick, Chris Culliver, Daniel Kilgore and Bruce Miller—large chunks of the backbone the 49ers’ recent success has been built around.

Since then, however, Baalke’s success has been more mixed.  I’m not implying that Baalke is a bad GM, just that it hasn’t been all Baalke’s moves that have brought the 49ers to success over the past four years.

Bill Parcells: Colin Kaepernick at Career Crossroads

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

As relayed by the San Jose Mercury News’ Cam Inman, Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells sees Kaepernick at a career crossroads as he finishes up his second full season as a starting quarterback.

On ESPN’s Mike & Mike in the Morning show, Parcells pointed out that Kaepernick doesn’t have “a real good supporting cast right now.”

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All players have characteristics that don't allow harsh criticism. They don't respond to certain things well. This guy Kaepernick has demonstrated at some point in time an ability to lead his team successfully.  Things have gone well for Kaepernick, really, up until this point. This year has been certainly differently from the others.

But you find out about these guys, I've always said it: 'The fans are booing you. The media is on your case. The players are looking at you sideways. You've got a couple injuries. And it's Wednesday and you've got to get back in the huddle to prove you can lead your team.' Some guys just can't handle that. Others can, and those that can wind up being successful.

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Parcells has a point, and it is similar to another article by Football Outsider’s Andrew Healy, which listed quarterbacks with big performance drops in their third seasons compared to their first two. Basically, it’s a list of quarterbacks who, like Kaepernick, struggled in their third season after enjoying a lot of success at first.

Some of these quarterbacks—Ben Roethlisberger, Trent Green and Daunte Culpepper chief among them—recovered from these slumps to have very solid careers.  Others—including Kordell Stewart, Kelly Holcomb and Rob Johnson—fell off a cliff and were never heard from again.

We don’t know how Kaepernick will deal with this kind of adversity—he’s never had to face it on the football field.  Some quarterbacks wither and crumble, and some don’t.  That, more than anything with the head coach or general manager or any of that, will determine the 49ers’ short-term prospects.

Jerrell Richardson: 49ers Still with Plenty to Play in 2014, Playoffs Undecided

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

For you eternal optimists out there, Jerrell Richardson of CBS Sacramento laid out paths for the 49ers to still make the playoffs this season.

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While it seems highly unlikely, if San Francisco can beat Seattle this week, they are still alive in the playoff hunt. If they’re unable to pull off the upset, they will then need some help and luck, but the 49ers remaining schedule as tough as it is, works in their favor if they hope to pull off the unlikely comeback and secure a spot in the playoffs.

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The 49ers do have a puncher’s chance if they knock off Seattle this week.

With the upset, the 49ers would be sitting at 8-6, just a game behind the current wild-card leaders in Detroit and Dallas.  Their best hope for getting in would be as follows:

• San Francisco, of course, wins out to get to 10-6.  Besides the Seattle victory, this would involve beating San Diego and Arizona at home.
• Seattle would then need to lose either to Arizona or St. Louis to fall to 10-6—the 49ers would beat them thanks to the common games tiebreaker.
• Dallas also loses twice—probably to Philadelphia this week and Indianapolis next week.  That puts them at, at best, 10-6.  The 49ers would win the tiebreaker over them thanks to the Week 1 head-to-head victory.
• Crucially, then Detroit does NOT finish at 10-6, necessitating a three-way-tie and invalidating San Francisco’s head-to-head win.  Either they lose out and finish at 9-7, or they win against Minnesota and Chicago and get to at least 11-5.  In a three-way-tie, San Francisco would almost assuredly end up eliminated on common games, thanks to the Week 2 loss against Chicago.

That’s actually not that hard—assuming, of course, the 49ers do upset Seattle this week.  There’s even some wriggle-room—Dallas could lose to Washington in Week 17 as well, for example, or Philadelphia could be the team that collapses rather than Dallas.

A loss in Seattle would require a bit more thinking.  The most likely scenario would be as follows:

• San Francisco would have to beat San Diego and Arizona to finish the season at 9-7.
• Detroit would have to lose out to also finish at 9-7.
• Dallas or Philadelphia would also have to lose out to finish at 9-7.
• St. Louis would have to drop at least one game to get to 8-8—otherwise, they’d finish ahead of San Francisco thanks to a superior division record.

In that scenario, three NFC West teams would make it into the playoffs, with the Cardinals and Seahawks, in some combination, taking the division title and the fifth seed.  San Francisco, Detroit and Dallas/Philadelphia would again finish in a three-way-tie, but this time, San Francisco’s 7-5 conference record would end up tied with Detroit’s 7-5 conference record, ahead of either Dallas or Philadelphia, and Detroit’s loss to Chicago would mean the two clubs would be tied on common games, as well.

That would take it to strength of victory, where San Francisco’s wins over teams like Arizona, Kansas City and San Diego would trump Detroit’s wins over Green Bay, Miami and not much else.  They would advance over Detroit and steal the No. 6 seed.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.