Biggest Early-Season Storylines for Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets have already played a quarter of their games, but some of the fans might just be starting to pay attention. 

Perhaps you’ve been watching college football and now need something else to fill your Saturday evenings. Or maybe it’s getting too cold to go outside. Whatever the reason, if you’ve missed everything to this point, we’ve got you covered.

Through the first 21 games, the Rockets have netted a 16-5 record, putting them on pace for an amazing 62-win season, which is far better than anyone expected. According to David Purdum of ESPN.com, their over/under for wins was 49.5.

How they got to where they are is already a full season’s worth of narratives, but those storylines have been distilled down to five here. These are listed in order of importance.

5. The Offseason Wasn’t so Bad After All

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Remember the disastrous offseason the Rockets had? Well, a funny thing happened on the way to the playoffs: the regular season.

During the summer, Rockets general manager Daryl Morey rolled the dice in the hopes of acquiring a third superstar to play alongside Dwight Howard and James Harden. He made overtures for Chris Bosh and Carmelo Anthony.

In order to make cap space available he traded Omer Asik to the New Orleans Pelicans for Houston’s protected first-round pick. Morey also gave away Jeremy Lin to the Los Angeles Lakers and a first-round pick to take him.

Then, when the Dallas Mavericks made a play for Chandler Parsons, giving him a max-contract offer, Morey eventually declined to match.

And then, in the end, Bosh stayed with the Miami Heat, and Carmelo Anthony stayed with the New York Knicks. And Houston’s only noteworthy acquisition was Trevor Ariza, who was considered a step down from Parsons.

In the places of the vacated players came a scraggly looking group of rookies, scrubs and subs. And all they’ve done is utterly destroy expectations.

Per Basketball-Reference.com, Tarik Black and Kostas Papanikolaou are third and fifth in win shares among rookies.

Jason Terry is shooting 40.4 percent from deep—his best rate since 2007-08.

It’s not just new additions either. Donatas Motiejunas has stepped up his interior game and is averaging career highs with 9.6 points on 49.7 percent shooting. Isaiah Canaan has more than doubled last year’s scoring average, going from 4.6 to 9.6 per contest.

Whether it was through new acquisitions or developing their youngsters, the Rockets' offseason was a much bigger win than previously thought.

4. Too Many Injuries

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Apparently, the new fad in Houston is getting injured. Everyone’s doing it. The numbers are startling if not downright scary.

In all, the Rockets' 10 most-used players have missed 51 of 210 games, just shy of 25 percent of them. Furthermore, their preferred starters have missed 40 of 105 contests.

Terrence Jones has been out for all but two games with a peroneal nerve contusion. Howard’s been out the 12 overall, including the last 11, with a strained right knee. Patrick Beverley missed 13 starts and had to come off the bench once with a pulled hammy.

They’ve been sans Papanikolaou the past two, and he’s expected to be out for another week or two with a right knee sprain. Canaan has missed the last seven games with one of his own. Black missed a pair of games with a bruised thigh. Francisco Garcia was out once with a strained right knee.

It sounds like the makings for a good excuse, but when you’re 16-5, you don’t need to make excuses. It’s commendable that the Rockets have overcome so much adversity so brilliantly this season.

3. Shopping for Another Piece

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The Rockets had an underrated offseason, and they are overcoming the plethora of injuries. But that doesn’t mean they’re content to be where they’re at. They’re looking to use the $8.4 million trade exception they obtained last summer for Jeremy Lin.

According to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports, they could be making a move before Dec. 19.

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Rival executives say that Houston’s front office has been active in searching out deals in recent days and wants an acquisition completed within the 60-day reaggregation window before the Feb. 19 NBA trade deadline. This way, the Rockets could still have an option of moving the player again this season.

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“Reaggragation” means they can combine whatever player obtained with the exception with another player, but they have to wait 60 days to do that. Then they can either take back 50 percent of the total outgoing salaries if they’re sending out less than $9.8 million or $5 million over the sum if they’re sending out $9.8 million or more.

So, for example, they could combine Papanikolaou ($4.8 million) and the player they obtain with the Lin exception ($8.4 million) to aggregate $13 million in salaries then add another $5 million to that. And just like that, $8.4 million becomes $18 million. And they have the Pelicans’ pick to offer as bait.

It looks like there are already a couple of deals the Rockets could have had but are looking for better offers.

Per Wojnarowski:

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Two teams believed that they had deals taking shape with the Rockets but sense that Houston general manager Daryl Morey is working to find better deals. The Rockets have been pursuing a best-available-player mantra in talks, league sources said, but there appears to be a focus on wings and frontcourt players.

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That could be the difference in eventually getting a player like Rajon Rondo or Lance Stephenson.

Knowing how much Daryl Morey likes to deal, don’t be shocked if and when one or two more moves go down between now and the trade deadline.

2. Defense! Defense!

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The Rockets’ success is largely built on flipping their identity. No longer just an offensive powerhouse, they’ve become one of the stingiest teams in the league, even with Howard missing so many games.

Last season, per NBA.com/Stats, they were an offensive juggernaut, scoring a fourth-best 108.6 points per 100 possessions. However they were only 12th in defensive rating at 103.1. This year, they’re the second-best defense in the league, though, yielding just 97.0 while scoring only a 19th-ranked 101.8.

So what happened? In part, it’s a lot about emphasis. Coach Kevin McHale had the team working on defense consistently during the preseason. In conjunction with that, James Harden deciding to pay attention on both ends of the court makes it possible.

In part, it’s personnel. Adding Ariza, an elite wing-defender, is huge for the reasons I wrote it would be last summer.

And in part, it’s schematic. As ESPN insider Amin Elhassen writes (subscription required):

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Part of what's helped the Rockets' defensive surge has been their ability to apply "Mathketball" principles (which they've mastered on the offensive end) to their defense; namely, preventing 3s, layups and fouls. It's clear they've instructed their players to run shooters off the 3-point line, with help defense stepping up to prevent penetration and encourage the midrange pull-up. Harden has taken this directive and applied it with zest, often exaggeratedly flying by shooters in an effort to discourage the 3. On many nights, this won't be an issue, as lesser offensive players will either pump-fake and swing or try to drive hard to the paint.

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All of those things together have made a difference. If the Rockets can get healthy and have their offense catch up to their defense, they should be legitimately terrifying.

1. Harden for MVP?

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James Harden is honestly in competition for the MVP award. How could he not be? Only the Portland Trail Blazers, who have one more win, and the 19-2 Golden State Warriors have a better record than the Rockets.

And while the Warriors have been without David Lee for the bulk of the season, they're nothing like the MASH unit the Rockets have had to deal with.

And through their adversity, Harden has been the biggest reason they keep on winning. All he’s doing is everything. He’s leading the league in scoring, notching 25.6. He’s also averaging 6.4 boards, 6.4 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.1 blocks.

That puts him as the first player to ever post averages of 25, six, six, two and one. LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Oscar Robertson and Larry Bird came close, but none ever did it. Statistically, Harden’s season has been pretty incredible. 

Harden’s literally historic performance while carrying the Rockets through an absolutely surreal injury situation should be enough to make a case for him as MVP. You might argue that a few players are better, but the Rockets would have disintegrated without Harden this year. It’s hard to argue anyone has been more valuable.