What Can We Expect from Johnny Manziel in Debut Start?

It took longer than expected, but rookie quarterback Johnny Manziel will get his first start for the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.

Manziel didn't take the job away from Brian Hoyer as much as it fell out of Hoyer's limp grasp into the former Texas A&M star's lap. Although the Browns had been in playoff contention, Hoyer's continued inability to effectively execute the offense caused his team to lose winnable games during the second half of the season.

At first, head coach Mike Pettine appeared reluctant to move on from Hoyer. His poor play didn't just begin in recent weeks; it could be traced back to the start of the season. But the Browns were winning games and on track to make the playoffs, so the coach's reluctance was understandable.

With three games left in the season, the Browns are still in the thick of the playoff hunt. At 7-6, they are just one game behind the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. The Cincinnati Bengals, this weekend's opponent, are 1.5 games ahead of the Browns and lead the AFC North.

At this critical moment, Pettine could no longer delay the inevitable. It was time for him to coronate the OVO King of Cleveland.

Over the years, numerous NFL prospects have entered the NFL with substantial hype. Different personality quirks or off-field activities that made headlines during their college stretches earned them attention that had nothing to do with their play.

Manziel doesn't just fall into that category. He is enveloped by it.

His debut this weekend has the potential to be Tim Tebow-like in how it draws attention. That's not just the Tebow who went on a playoff run in Denver, but rather the Tebow who somehow wound up in a quarterback controversy—something that naturally draws attention—as part of the New York Jets.

A lot will be written about Manziel regardless of what he does on the field this weekend. Whether it's an unwanted physical action or a muttered sentence, he can't escape that kind of attention.

Instead of escaping it, he needs to draw people away from it with his play on the field. If he performs well against the Bengals this Sunday, he will successfully distract his detractors and fuel the passion of a Browns fanbase that will ultimately judge him by how good of a quarterback he is.

But is Manziel ready?

During the preseason, the then-21-year-old quarterback was clearly uncomfortable running offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan's system. He made too many poor decisions from the pocket and even missed a couple of opportunities to make throws when he moved outside of the pocket.

When he played in relief of Hoyer two weeks ago during the Buffalo Bills game, Manziel showed some poise from the pocket but was inconsistent and somewhat fortunate to be as productive as he was.

Shanahan wilt to play an important role in Sunday's performance. What he asks Manziel to do shouldn't be dramatically different from what he was asking Hoyer to do, because he wasn't asking Hoyer to do too much. Shanahan has proved in the past that he can get production out of less talented or less experienced quarterbacks by calling games in specific ways.

A good example for what Shanahan should potentially do with Manziel is Robert Griffin III—not the Griffin III of the past two seasons but rather the version who excelled during his rookie year, when Shanahan was his offensive coordinator. Griffin executed Shanahan's offense as well as anyone could ever have expected him to. While Manziel isn't as physically gifted and probably not as poised as Griffin was back then, they do share some similar traits.

Movement is going to be important for Manziel early in his career. He ran for a touchdown against the Bills, but people shouldn't expect that of him when it comes to using his mobility. Instead, Manziel should use his athleticism to execute bootlegs and elongated play-action designs within Shanahan's offense.

When Shanahan initially worked with Griffin, he relied heavily on play action and bootlegs to simplify the game for his quarterback and play to the youngster's strengths.

Griffin made his debut for Washington against the New Orleans Saints in Louisiana. He threw for 320 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions during that game. He passed the ball 27 times—12 of those pass attempts came on play action from the pocket, three came on play action outside of the pocket, one was a designed rollout, and seven more were screens.

This means that Griffin was asked to drop back into the pocket, manage an unaffected pass rush and read the coverage without significant help on just four snaps when he threw the ball.

Over Griffin's first 11 games of that season, he threw the ball 306 times. He ran play action within the pocket or outside it, rolled out or threw a screen pass on an incredible 62 percent of those throws, according to FootballGuys.com.

During that time, he threw for 2,497 yards, 16 touchdowns and four interceptions.

With all that in mind and the relative quality of the Browns supporting cast around Manziel, it's easy to be too optimistic about what he could potentially do this week. Shanahan knows how to put him in position to make plays, but the quarterback still has to make them.

Because the Bengals rank 30th in run-defense defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), the Browns should come out with a run-heavy game plan. Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West have been impressive rookie running backs for the Browns this season, even though their ability to run the ball has dropped off since Alex Mack's injury.

Manziel's presence on the field should help both backs find more space over the middle of the field—Crowell in particular.

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Shanahan used play action so often without hurting the overall effectiveness of his Washington offense because of how he ran the ball. The Browns offense regularly relies on zone stretch plays that leave a backside defender unblocked, while the offensive line shifts to the other side of the field like a moving wall.

That backside defender may not be blocked, but he's accounted for.

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By leaving the backside defender unblocked, he is in position to watch the handoff in the backfield while closing on the ball. Shanahan designs his handoffs so the quarterback blocks the backside defender's view as he puts the ball in the running back's chest.

As such, the backside defender doesn't know if this is a running play or play action until the quarterback has passed the running back and turned back toward the other side of the field.

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On this play, with Hoyer in the game, the backside defender doesn't hesitate to account for the potential play action. Instead, he immediately chases Crowell down from behind. He never gets to Crowell because the rookie keeps moving to the other side of the field. However, if Crowell had been forced to cut back, he would have had nowhere to go because of the waiting defender.

What the edge defender did on this play was fine because it was a run, but if Hoyer had kept the football, he would have been running into space in the flat with nobody to account for him.

Having Manziel in the game instead of Hoyer should not only make the quarterback more dangerous when he keeps the ball but also give Crowell more room to operate when he takes the handoff. Manziel isn't a special athlete like Griffin, but he is significantly more athletic than Hoyer.

Crowell is a more agile runner than West, so he should benefit more from Manziel's ability to stretch the backside defender.

This is an indirect benefit from having Manziel on the field. He should also be a bigger factor running the ball himself, especially during his first start, but his success will likely be determined by how well he can throw the ball down the field.

As he has done for all of the quarterbacks who have played in his offense, Shanahan will create plenty of easy throws for Manziel.

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When Manziel keeps the ball on those zone stretch looks, Shanahan will bring receivers across the field with him underneath and down the field. This creates an easy read for the quarterback and puts his receivers in space.

Manziel should comfortably make these plays from the start of this week's game against the Bengals.

Throwing the ball from the pocket will be where the challenges come for Manziel, although Shanahan will soften his responsibilities by using play action on those plays also. That is something that stood out on one throw in particular against the Bills.

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Off play action in the pocket, Manziel is most likely to push the ball down the sideline on a shot play or attack the middle of the field between the linebackers and the safeties. On this play, Manziel is looking to find Josh Gordon on a deep in route behind linebacker Brandon Spikes.

The play action draws Spikes forward, but the linebacker recovers as Manziel turns to read the coverage.

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Manziel shows off excellent arm talent to fit the ball over Spikes and into Gordon's hands, even though his pass is slightly behind the wide receiver, costing him a chance to create yards after the catch in space. Despite the relatively poor accuracy, the arm talent to fit the ball into such a window shows off impressive trajectory control.

If we only consider the sheer ability to throw the ball, Manziel should be fine during his first start. However, it's the mental side of the game that is more concerning.

At Texas A&M, Manziel was inconsistent with his decision-making and did not regularly go through a progression from the pocket. Against professional defensive coordinators, this is an area where he could potentially struggle a lot.

The Bengals don't have an exceptional pass defense. In fact, the defense as a whole has dropped off significantly this season without former defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer. However, they do have veteran defensive backs who should feel excited by the prospect of baiting a rookie quarterback in his first start.

If Manziel takes a reckless attitude toward throwing the ball down the field in this game, he will likely have multiple turnovers.

Our first look at him as a starting NFL quarterback should be interesting. It won't tell us a huge amount for the long term—just look at Griffin III as an example of someone whose debut meant nothing for his long-term future. The Browns aren't only thinking about the long term by starting Manziel this weekend.

While it's somewhat of a long shot, the Browns can still make the playoffs in a relatively unimpressive AFC.

To be a dangerous playoff team, Manziel would need to replicate close to what Griffin III did during his rookie season. The Browns do have enough quality on their roster and coaching staff to win some games in the playoffs, but it all hinges on Manziel living up to the hype.