Has the Eagles Offense Become Too Conservative?
During Chip Kelly's first season as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, the offense gained 20 or more yards on 99 plays, which was more than any other team in the 21st century.
| 1. Philadelphia Eagles | 2013 | 99 |
| 2. St. Louis Rams | 2001 | 95 |
| 3. Carolina Panthers | 2011 | 90 |
| 4. St. Louis Rams | 2000 | 87 |
And 11 weeks into this season, Philadelphia ranked second in the league with 52 such plays, behind only the Indianapolis Colts.
TOP NEWS
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Colts Release Kenny Moore
Projecting Every NFL Team's Starting Lineup 🔮
Rookie WRs Who Will Outplay Their Draft Value 📈
But the last few weeks, the Eagles offense has stopped hitting home runs.
A team that averaged 5.8 20-yard plays per game between the start of 2013 and the 11th week of 2014 has accumulated only nine such plays in the last three weeks, including just one in a Week 14 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
| 20-yard plays/game | 5.8 | 3.0 |
| 20-yard pass attempts/game | 5.9 | 4.3 |
Against the Seahawks, it became painfully obvious the Eagles were unwilling to take the types of chances that became their trademark early in Kelly's tenure. They ran only two plays that gained more than 12 yards, which is quite unbelievable when you consider they averaged 11.5 such plays during the first 28 regular-season games of the Kelly era.
Despite being pressured only nine times and facing extra rushers on only four occasions, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), quarterback Mark Sanchez attempted just four passes beyond 20 yards, completing only one (a 35-yard touchdown strike to tight end Zach Ertz).
A lot was of course made of the fact that the Eagles controlled the ball for less than a third of the game against Seattle, and converting only two of 11 third-down attempts was certainly a factor there. But they often seemed as though they were taking the safe route over and over again in third-down situations.
Sanchez dropped back to throw on third down eight times, and yet only three of the passes he threw on those plays made it to the first-down marker.
On their second offensive possession, the Eagles started at the Seattle 14 after a botched punt. But instead of taking even a semblance of a shot, they handed it off five consecutive plays before letting Sanchez throw a one-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Jeremy Maclin. The result was positive, but the play calls spoke volumes.
And even when they were passing—regardless of the down, the distance or the score—they weren't coming close to moving it down the field. According to CSN Philly's Reuben Frank, only three of the 24 plays they ran while trailing in the second half were longer than four yards, while 15 were for one yard or less.
There are several peripheral factors to consider here. Running back LeSean McCoy averaged just 2.9 yards per carry, which forced them into plenty of 3rd-and-long situations against probably the best defense in the NFL.
But it's not as though the Seahawks are completely unbeatable—they've allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.5 percent of their passes against them this season, which ranks below the middle of the pack—and the Eagles did have opportunities that they failed to take advantage of.
There have been times in which Sanchez has elected for the conservative play rather than taking a shot. Considering his history with turnovers, that's probably not something to complain too loudly about, but without pressure, there's little reason to force a pass underneath in a situation like this, especially down 10 points in the second half:
Again, this is becoming a troubling trend. The last three weeks, Sanchez has averaged only 6.2 yards per attempt on 13 deep passes, which ranks 27th among 32 qualifying quarterbacks during that time frame. Foles' average was 9.8 on those throws. He tossed a 40-yard completion once every 31.4 attempts, while Sanchez has done so only once every 65 throws.
It all has me wondering if Kelly trusts Sanchez. It didn't appear as though the quarterback was checking into any of those red-zone runs or short routes, and it would be hard to blame the guy for holding back with a pivot who turned the ball over more than anyone else in football between 2009 and 2012.
But offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur insists, via Frank, that the Eagles are "calling the exact same plays."
Shurmur added that "there’s times we call a deep-to-short concept where they cover it deep so you throw short."
And he's not entirely off base. The reality is their deep completions have dropped off at a sharper rate than their deep attempts, and Sanchez played a bad game against Seattle. He had Jordan Matthews wide open on what would have been a deep completion here but either failed to see him or got greedy and threw an incomplete pass deeper for Riley Cooper, who was well covered.
Something similar happened when he failed to see a wide-open Matthews sprinting down the sideline before throwing an interception on a pass intended for a (again) well-covered Cooper.
And on those third-down plays we looked at above, there often were deeper options. So this isn't just about the coaching staff.
One other factor to consider is that the team's best deep threat from 2013 is no longer on the roster. I know the Eagles insist they don't miss Pro Bowl receiver DeSean Jackson, but it's hard to ignore the fact that Jackson led the NFL with 16 deep receptions last year, per PFF.
Jackson caught 48.5 percent of the 20-plus-yard throws that came his way last season, which was the second-highest rate in the league. This year, Maclin and Cooper have pulled in only 22.9 percent of their deep balls.
Going from Foles, Jackson and Cooper to Sanchez, Cooper and Maclin might be hurting the Eagles quite significantly when it comes to hitting on big plays. But Foles remains out indefinitely (and it's not as though he was consistently connecting on deep balls before getting hurt) and Jackson is long gone.
Kelly's supposed to be the offensive mastermind. I know he can't turn a pack of scrubs into the 2007 Patriots, but he's still working with an elite offensive line, a deep receiving corps and a talented yet flawed quarterback who is every bit as skilled as the guy he's replacing.
The problem is that he's running out of time. If Kelly doesn't find a way to get more big plays out of his offense very soon, the Eagles could find themselves back at the drawing board and planning for the 2015 offseason before December has expired.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFC East for Bleacher Report since 2012.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
