New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers: What Experts Say About San Diego

The San Diego Chargers (8-4) face the New England Patriots (9-3), one of the league’s best teams—and now angry after a loss to the Green Bay Packers. What do NFL experts think about this crucial matchup for the Chargers?

Well, no one from Around the NFL is picking San Diego at home, and there isn’t a radical change in sentiment outside NFL.com. The Patriots are great as always, while the Chargers have to prove they’ve been more than lucky with scheduling and fourth-quarter craziness.

There is obviously more to every game than one team being good and one team worse. That’s why we’ll look at notable stats, analysis and film study from five reporters and writers to see if the Chargers are toast or will go blow-for-blow with New England.

Let’s get started with everyone’s favorite topic of conversation: quarterbacks.

Mike Reiss: Patriots' CBs Could Be the Difference in QB Battle

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In his stat-based preview of Chargers vs. Patriots, ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss pointed out that Philip Rivers has a career record of 0-5 versus Tom Brady. He also said both quarterbacks are at their best late in the season, with the December win percentages of Brady (.865) and Rivers (.833) being among the best all-time.

The Chargers often pick it up in December after a slow start. Rivers becomes more efficient, and the running game starts to heat up much like it did last season. Rivers’ record against Brady is surprising, as San Diego has played New England close in the playoffs.

Reiss also said the Patriots “could be a tough matchup for the talented Chargers receiving corps.” The Patriots rank second behind the Seahawks with a 0.73 touchdown-to-interception ratio on passes intended for receivers, according to Reiss.

There is always the possibility of a shootout with these two quarterbacks, but Darrelle Revis and Co. will prevent the game from getting out of hand. It will be tougher for the Chargers defense, which is vulnerable in the secondary past Brandon Flowers and Eric Weddle.

Richard Hill: Deep Ball Is Key for Chargers Offense

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Richard Hill of Pats Pulpit wrote that the Patriots could run away with the game if the Chargers miss on their deep passes and Brady isn’t pressured. The key to San Diego’s deep passing game is the Rivers-to-Malcom Floyd connection. Hill said Floyd will get “a few targets far down the field.”

Floyd is a vital cog in the offense, although his role naturally lends itself to inconsistency. Sometimes, like in Oakland, he’ll dominate. Other times, like against St. Louis, he’ll be fairly quiet. It’s pretty easy to tell when Mike McCoy and Frank Reich want to make Floyd a focal point. That might be the case in this game, where he’ll match up against gigantic Patriots cornerback Brandon Browner.

Hill said Browner “will match up well as Floyd isn’t a burner,” although there is a possibility that the Patriots could take Floyd out with a third cornerback and safety help over the top.

Floyd isn’t DeSean Jackson but does use his height and ball skills as nice substitutes. Browner has played better of late and doesn’t have an issue with size.

In the end, Floyd should win this war, drawing a penalty or two and making the grabs needed with his route running.

Jonathan George: Patriot Pass Rush Could Hurt Chargers Deep Ball

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Jonathan George of RantSports wrote that Rivers needs to throw the deep ball less in this game if the Chargers “want to avoid costly turnovers and take themselves out of the game.” George cites the New England pass rush and the Patriots' ability to make key plays, despite a lack of gaudy statistics as the reasons why.

Linebackers Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins are versatile, physical and don’t get gobs of media attention—ideal Bill Belichick defenders. Rob Ninkovich hasn’t been great this season but is playing his usual heavy snap count and can be relied upon to come up with crucial stops. Chandler Jones’ status is still up in the air, according to Micheal Whitmer of The Boston Globe.

Besides Jones, none of these guys are pass-rushing specialists and won't see time in coverage. Those moments need to be taken advantage of with deep shots. The New England defensive line is nothing special right now.

Avoiding the deep ball entirely is silly since Rivers is still very accurate downfield. The Chargers just have to time their shots properly due to the offensive line’s struggles.

Tom Krasovic: The Chargers Have Patriots in Their DNA

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Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union Tribune said the Chargers offense has been influenced by the success of the Patriots. The additions of former Patriots Danny Woodhead and Rich Ohrnberger as well as McCoy's time under Josh McDaniels in Denver may keep the Chargers closer to New England than we think.

The similarities don’t end with a couple of players. McCoy’s installation of a flexible offense that gives Rivers plenty of freedom in play-calling and tempo is much like what Brady has with the Patriots.

“The Chargers became more like the Patriots, in effect,” Krasovic said.

An offense largely driven by the quarterback is not exclusively a Patriot thing, so calling the Chargers New England-lite is a bit of a stretch. This is especially true with Woodhead out for the season.

Krasovic wrapped up his article by saying that whichever quarterback handles his adjustable offense the best will have the edge. Both teams have multiple weapons to take advantage of against defenses that have to get creative with their pass-rushers, so that is certainly true.

FiveThirtyEight: Patriots Game Will Swing Chargers’ Playoff Chances

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Mike Beuoy and Reuben Fischer-Baum of FiveThirtyEight wrote that San Diego has a 36 percent chance at making the playoffs, but a win against the Patriots would increase that probability to 56 percent. If the Chargers lose, their chances drop to 24 percent.

According to Beuoy and Fischer-Baum, the Dolphins, Ravens and Chiefs have a better chance at making the playoffs than the Chargers do, despite San Diego being a game ahead of those three teams. That is due to the team’s upcoming stretch against New England, Denver, San Francisco and Kansas City.

The rest of the Chargers’ regular-season games all have similar themes: They are crucial for San Diego’s postseason aspirations and are against formidable opponents. They will be playing the role of the underdog often after being favored in most of their early season contests.

Scheduling isn’t paid much attention early in the season but could certainly shift the playoff landscape in these last few weeks. Let’s see how the Chargers handle it.