Bills vs. Broncos: Breaking Down Denver's Game Plan

After a road victory over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 13, the Denver Broncos return home in Week 14 for a matchup against the Buffalo Bills. They have won back-to-back games (at home versus Miami, on the road versus Kansas City) after a three-game road trip earlier in the season where they went 1-2.

During that road trip, the Broncos barely ran the ball. They only averaged 18 rushing attempts during that three-game stretch. Since the loss to the St. Louis Rams in Week 11, the Broncos have averaged 40 rushing attempts per game for over 200 yards each week.

Broncos head coach John Fox knows that running the ball effectively can help out Peyton Manning and the passing game.

“Yeah, I think it can be a quarterback’s best friend. I think it helps, not only a quarterback, but the offensive line. It keeps the defense guessing a little bit more rather than being one-dimensional in the pass game all the time.”

Now that they’re back at home, the Broncos face a tough foe in the Bills. Their offense may be limited, but the Bills defense has been carrying them this season. They are a defense that thrives off turnovers and getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks:

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#Bills lead #NFL w48 sacks, but Peyton Manning and #Broncos have taken the fewest sacks this season (13) PFM avg time in pocket 2.14 seconds

— Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey) December 4, 2014"

How will the Denver Broncos attack the Buffalo Bills on both sides of the ball? Let’s take a look.

When the Broncos Run the Ball

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Extending his streak to four games of 100 (or more) all-purpose yards, C.J. Anderson has been phenomenal as a runner over the last two weeks. After rushing for 167 yards against the Miami Dolphins in Week 12, Anderson extended his career-high to 168 rushing yards against the Chiefs in Week 13.

With back-to-back games over 150 yards rushing, Anderson became the first teammate of Peyton Manning to accomplish that feat. That’s an amazing stat considering the quality backs like Marshall Faulk and Edgerrin James who played with Manning during his time with the Indianapolis Colts.

The Broncos have discovered a power-running game with Anderson as the lead back. Now that they’ve unleashed Anderson, they may not go away from the balance attack they’ve wanted since the loss to the Seattle Seahawks in the Super Bowl last year.

Anderson continues to pick up tough yards after contact. His leg drive and ability to run through arm tackles have helped energize this offense:

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since Wk 10 rush yds after contact #Seahawks Marshawn Lynch (219) #Lions JBell (189) #Packers Eddie Lacy (182) #Broncos CJ Anderson (167)

— Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey) December 1, 2014"

While running over opponents, Anderson does it with a smile on his face.

“I just like to have fun, to be honest. I’m just out there having fun. My ability speaks when it comes to breaking tackles and things of that nature. It’s just the style of runner I am.” Anderson emphasized, “But as long as I’m out there having fun and being productive and helping my team win, that’s all that matters.”

Anderson has compiled 59 carries over the last two weeks. He should see a bit of a reduced workload coming up. Averaging nearly 30 carries a game for two weeks, Anderson might see around 20-25 carries against the Bills.

Behind Anderson, we may see the return of Montee Ball soon. Ball has been missing time due to a re-aggravated groin injury. He initially injured his groin in Week 5 against the Arizona Cardinals. Ball returned the game against the Rams, but he didn’t play much and was injured again.

Many Broncos fans are wondering what will happen to Anderson’s playing time when Ball returns. Fox gave no clues when asked the question.

“Those are all hypotheticals. We’ll cross that bridge when it happens. Right now he’s playing very well, and he’s our starting running back.”

Just based off Anderson’s production, it seems insane to consider removing him as the starter—or even drastically reducing his playing time. This means when Ball returns, he’s likely going to be a part-time player behind Anderson.

The Buffalo rush defense is seventh-best in the NFL, and it only allows an average of 96.3 yards on the ground per game. It has only surrendered six rushing touchdowns so far in 2014.

The Bills have an active front seven on defense, and Anderson will be put to the test.

When the Broncos Pass the Ball

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

As the Broncos have been running the ball with authority, it has come at the cost of fewer passing attempts. That’s no problem so long as the team is winning. The Broncos have been talking about having a balanced attack all season long—and now they’re accomplishing their goal.

Manning doesn’t believe there’s any adjustment that he’s had to make over the last couple of weeks.

“It’s not an adjustment. You’re trying to find a way to move the ball down the field and [RB] C.J. [Anderson’s] been awesome the past couple of games. Every game takes on an identity.”

The Broncos were able to run the ball effectively against the Chiefs, but the offense seemed to stall when it got into the red zone. The Broncos scored two touchdowns in the first quarter at Kansas City, and after that they only scored field goals.

A reason why the red zone is a problem for the Broncos is the absence of tight end Julius Thomas. He’s missed the last two games with an ankle injury, but the team is hopeful to get him back this week.

Manning knows the team must take advantage of scoring opportunities when it's close to pay dirt.

“Every red-zone opportunity has its own story, and nobody wants to hear it; they just want to see if you get a touchdown or a field goal. I can’t say that. I think somehow we’ve got to find a way—I’ve got to find a way—to help us get into the end zone with Julius or without him.”

The Bills defense presents a tough opponent for the Broncos in Week 14:

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#Bills defense has been one of the most disruptive this season, leading #NFL in sacks (48) and posting 2nd best opponent Total QBR (39.6)

— Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey) December 4, 2014"

Manning shared his thoughts on the Bills defense.

“They have an excellent defense. [We are] still getting to know them. They are an unfamiliar opponent like Miami. It’s always a challenge trying to get to know them during the week, and I don’t know if you ever really get to know them until you play them and try to get to know them during the course of the game.”

Manning’s insight continued, “They are playing really well together, creating a lot of problems for teams on the early downs and getting teams into 3rd-and-longs. [They] just seem to be playing really well together as a unit. That’s helping their team win some games.”

If Julius Thomas can play this week, that should help Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders see better coverages on Sunday. The Broncos can use Demaryius Thomas on short routes because of his run-after-the-catch ability. His size and leaping ability also make him a perfect target for the red zone.

Sanders continues to impress each week as he pushes his career-high numbers to new totals. His deep speed helps to keep defenses honest. Manning can throw long passes at Sanders in an effort to move the chains and keep defenses from stacking the line to stuff the run.

Ever since the Patriots' loss, we’ve seen teams try to take away the short-passing game from the Broncos. When they fail to run the ball, that has been problematic, but now that they’re running the ball better, Manning is going to take those shots downfield in one-on-one coverage.

The Bills have a pass defense that ranks fifth-best in the NFL. They only allow an average of 216.1 yards passing per game, and they’ve only allowed 14 passing touchdowns, while picking up 15 interceptions so far in 2014.

The Bills' pass-rushers will try to get to Manning early and often. They’ll find it tough to bring him down, but Manning will have to make some throws under fire in order to best take advantage of this swarming defense.

When the Bills Run the Ball

Gary Wiepert/Associated Press

The Bills' backfield has had several different looks in 2014. It began the season with C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson as its top two backs. Both Spiller and Jackson got hurt, and that led to a great opportunity for guys like Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown. Spiller is still banged-up, but Jackson has returned as the backfield's lead back once again.

Jackson is a seasoned veteran who can make plays as a runner or receiver out of the backfield. The Bills use him to soften up an opponent between the tackles, and Jackson gets stronger as the game goes on. He’s not the fastest back in the NFL, but Jackson can make it to the outside at the second level of the defense and pick up big gains on the ground.

Behind Jackson, there will be a few carries distributed to both Dixon and Brown. Dixon is a fullback/running back ‘tweener who is an absolute battering ram on short-yardage situations. He doesn’t have a lot of wiggle to his game, but Dixon can—and will—truck over defenders with ease.

Brown is more of a change-of-pace back with the speed to make big plays in the open field. He likes to bounce runs outside too often, but if he gets a crease he can score from anywhere, anytime he touches the ball.

Last week against Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs, the Broncos held Kansas City to only 41 yards rushing on 15 carries. They could do a similar number on the Bills' rushing attack in Week 14.

So far this year, the Broncos have the second-best rush defense in the league. They only allow an average of 72.7 yards rushing per game.

The Bills may want to run the ball on Denver. This would eat up the time of possession and keep Manning cold on the sidelines. That’s nice in theory, but the reality is they’ll likely struggle to move the ball on the ground against the Broncos.

When the Bills Pass the Ball

Gary Wiepert/Associated Press

Kyle Orton returns as an opponent of the Broncos once again. The former Broncos quarterback gets his second career start against the Broncos, and this is the second time since losing the starting job in Denver to Tim Tebow in 2011. Orton started for the Chiefs in Week 17 of 2011 and beat the Broncos.

Fox shared his memories of Orton on Wednesday.

“I remember a good guy, good teammate. He was our starting quarterback to start our tenure here. He can make all the throws. He is a veteran guy [and] has won games before. I think Denver had originally picked him up from Chicago. So he’s a guy that’s been around.” Fox concluded, “I think he was a backup in Dallas, and he’s played a lot of football, seen a lot of football and has got a lot of experience.”

One of the main weapons for the Bills' passing game is rookie phenom Sammy Watkins. The Bills moved up in the 2014 NFL draft to select Watkins, and they surrendered two first-round picks and a fourth-round pick to acquire his services.

When healthy, Watkins has flashed big-play ability for the Bills so far this year. So far this season, Watkins has been targeted 98 times, caught 51 passes for 695 yards and five touchdowns. However, he’s been on a bit of a cold streak recently as he’s been fighting some nagging injuries:

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#Bills Sammy Watkins had back-to-back 100-yd receiving games in Wk 7-8. In 4 games since, he's gained a total of 105 receiving yards w/no TD

— Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey) December 4, 2014"

While Watkins has been a bit banged-up, we’ve seen second-year pro Robert Woods put up some decent numbers in recent weeks. Broncos safety Rahim Moore has a great appreciation for both young weapons.

“He’s fantastic. He and [WR] Robert Woods, those guys are the future. Sammy Watkins, if you miss him on a press coverage or if he gets behind you, it’s going to be touchdown. Robert Woods, he’s got great routes. I’ve known about Robert Woods since high school in California.” Moore reminisced.

“He seems to get better and better. His route running is improving and better than when I first played against him in college as a freshman. I knew what type of great player he was going to be in the future.”

Moore concluded, “These guys make big-time plays. Against the New York Jets, Robert Woods was just making plays left and right. He’s standing out. Those guys play a big part in their offense, especially in their run game too.”

Outside of Watkins and Woods, the Broncos should be concerned about covering a couple of tight ends.

Scott Chandler is the main tight end for the Bills, and he’s a huge target measuring 6’7” and 260 pounds. Even though he’s not that dangerous after the catch, his size makes him a threat on jump passes in the end zone.

The other tight end Denver should be concerned with is a new acquisition. MarQueis Gray was a college quarterback who is making the transition to tight end in the pros. He’s incredibly athletic, big, fast and physical. Gray only had two catches last week against the Cleveland Browns, but he racked up 71 yards receiving.

Denver has historically struggled to cover tight ends, and these two could be more productive on Sunday than some people think.

The Broncos currently have the 10th-best passing defense in the league. They only allow an average of 229.7 yards passing per game. They have allowed 24 passing scores in 2014 with 12 interceptions and 34 sacks compiled as well.

Summary

Denver has given itself a cushion in the AFC West with its victory over the Chiefs last week. However, the San Diego Chargers are still on their tail. They need to stay on the winning track in order to stay at the top of their division.

If the Chargers can beat the New England Patriots in Week 14 (and the Broncos beat the Bills), then Denver will regain the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. With the start of the playoffs less than a month away, the Broncos are running out of opportunities to leapfrog past the Patriots in the conference.

Broncos defensive tackle Terrance Knighton admits he watches the standings each week.

“Yeah, but ultimately it comes down to what we do. As long as we win, we’ll be where we need to be, and obviously we need a little help to be the No. 1 seed if we do what we’re supposed to do.” Knighton concluded, “Right now, we’re just focused on winning and being the best team we can be.”

The Broncos want to build momentum on their way to the postseason. Getting a key victory at home over a quality opponent like Buffalo would help them continue doing just that.

All quotes and injury/practice observations obtained firsthand. Record/statistical information provided via email from the Denver Broncos unless otherwise noted. Contract and salary-cap information provided by Spotrac.com. Transaction history provided by ProSportsTransactions.com.