Can the 49ers Avoid an Implosion After Week 13 Loss?
Almost everything that could go wrong for the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13 did go wrong.
The 49ers lost a prime-time matchup on Thanksgiving, at home and against their hated division rival Seattle Seahawks. This 19-3 loss could very well be the difference between a playoff-bound squad for the fourth consecutive year or an underperforming franchise that will be watching from home this January.
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About the only thing that went right for San Francisco was its defense—a unit that played particularly well given the absolute ineptitude of the offense.
At 7-5, the 49ers are technically not eliminated from anything. They still hold the No. 8 seed in the NFC despite the loss—two spots out from the final sixth seed in the conference. San Francisco trails Seattle, the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys by only one game.
But the road to secure a playoff berth just got much tougher. This road will include a trip up north in Week 15 to face the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field—a venue that has not been kind to the 49ers in recent years.
With the 49ers having to win out, essentially, is there any possibility San Francisco can turn things around in quick order? Or are things too bad, too late? Is this team on the verge of an implosion?
The Rumor Mill
Thursday's loss did more than just provide a venue for Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman to rub salt in open 49ers wounds.
On a night where San Francisco's offense generated only 164 all-purpose yards, the defeat opened up a whirlwind of rumors and speculation as to what would happen in coming weeks.
The first repercussion was a tweet from 49ers CEO Jed York, who uttered his frustrations over the disappointing loss:
This sort of reaction can be taken a number of different ways, but NFL.com's Conor Orr goes into a bit more detail about what the implications might be:
"While there is still time to turn things around this season, the tweet will not be taken lightly around the league. Amid a season-long series of reports about York clashing with coach Jim Harbaugh, it's hard not to wonder if the comment was meant to be heard by more than just the fans.
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York's tweet was not the only high-profile reaction to San Francisco's woes and the misgivings surrounding offensive coordinator Greg Roman.
49ers general manager Trent Baalke's daughter weighed in on the offense's struggles with a tweet of her own that read, “Greg Roman can take a hike..the 49ers don’t want you no more.” Baalke's daughter has since deleted the tweet and her account, and Baalke apologized on his daughter's behalf for the remarks, per Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area.
Things don't end here.
On November 30, ESPN's Adam Schefter, citing a source, reported that the Oakland Raiders and New York Jets would be interested in a trade for head coach Jim Harbaugh during the offseason. However, Schefter also cites a source who stated the 49ers would be interested in an extension if San Francisco were to finish 4-0 down the stretch and make a run into the playoffs.
Jay Glazer of Fox Sports also backed up Schefter's statements but hinted that the 49ers would be active in moving the head coach. His comments come in the wake of his Week 1 statement that there would be "no chance" Harbaugh would return even if the 49ers went on to win the Super Bowl this season.
Harbaugh has one year left on his five-year deal.
The Blowback
Whatever the reports are, indications are that Harbaugh will remain as head coach for the rest of 2014.
But what happens if Harbaugh is traded or fired?
For starters, the 49ers would be without a coach who boasts the third-highest winning percentage (.729) of any multiple-season coach in the modern era, per Maiocco. It's hard to argue against the success San Francisco has enjoyed during his tenure. Three consecutive NFC Championship appearances and one Super Bowl berth speak to his abilities.
Yet if Harbaugh's personality, combined with what is happening this year, is enough to create a rift in which a trade/firing materializes, exactly how would the 49ers move forward?
Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports offers up some possible replacements. He lists in-house options such as defensive coordinator Vic Fangio or defensive line coach Jim Tomsula as potential favorites if Harbaugh departs:
But, as is the case with any change of coach, will any replacement be able to replicate the same sort of recent success enjoyed under the Harbaugh administration?
Perhaps the biggest question is what to do about Roman? True, the players are ultimately responsible for executing on the field. Roman can't block, make accurate passes or catch balls, but he is ultimately responsible for dialing up an effective approach.
This approach hasn't worked well in 2014. The 49ers rank No. 23 in the league with just 231 points scored.
Maiocco highlights Roman's responsibility in this aspect:
"One indisputable fact is that the 49ers’ offensive coordinator has not been able to push the right buttons with a seemingly talented unit that has underperformed to the largest degree this season.
Even if the players deserve the greatest portion of the blame, it’s Roman’s job to put them in positions to succeed. But there has been very little success with the 49ers’ offense. And Thursday’s showing was about as bad as it can possibly get.
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Harbaugh has continuously backed his offensive coordinator. He did so again after Thursday's loss, via Paul Gutierrez of ESPN. When asked if he was satisfied with the job Roman did, Harbaugh bluntly responded, "Yes."
But the offensive numbers do not equate. Harbaugh's future may ultimately be linked, not only to his relationship with the front office, but also with the presence and effectiveness of Roman.
It hasn't been pretty through Week 13.
Other consequences may emanate if Harbaugh departs. Chief among these is the future of quarterback Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco. Kaepernick, the signal-caller who is essentially regarded as Harbaugh's guy, performed about as bad as possible against Seattle. One needs to look no further than Sherman's two interceptions off the fourth-year pro.
If Harbaugh goes, is it possible that Kaepernick will soon follow?
Anyone who has studied Kaepernick's lucrative contract could tell you that it leaves the 49ers plenty of outs when it comes to deciding whether or not he is their franchise quarterback over the course of the deal.
Some, like CBS Sports' Pete Prisco, feel as if Kaepernick's progression is faltering. This could suggest an imminent split between the 27-year-old and the 49ers franchise:
But Maiocco disagrees with the thought that Kaepernick's future is directly related to that of Harbaugh. He writes:
"For instance, if the 49ers - with or without Harbaugh’s input - believe Kaepernick is not worth his scheduled $12.8 million cash value for next season, he will not return. That is highly unlikely, of course. ... The 49ers might be eager to see what Kaepernick is capable of doing with a new approach on offense.
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A new offensive approach may be the difference in this case. The current offensive regime called by Roman has not worked well. Yet it is an approach that, ultimately, is approved and influenced by Harbaugh.
Salvation?
San Francisco's Week 13 loss to Seattle put an exclamation point on what has been a wide-spread period of offensive ineptitude.
The 49ers were only able to muster 17 points against the lowly Washington Redskins in Week 12. They were only able to put up 16 against the New York Giants the week prior despite forcing five interceptions off quarterback Eli Manning.
A likely theory is that San Francisco will have to finish a perfect 4-0 to round out the season if the team hopes to make it into the playoffs. Considering some of the opponents—Seattle and the Arizona Cardinals—such a task appears almost impossible.
| No. 1 | Arizona Cardinals | West | 9-3 |
| No. 2 | Green Bay Packers | North | 9-3 |
| No. 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | East | 9-3 |
| No. 4 | New Orleans Saints | South | 5-7 |
| No. 5 | Seattle Seahawks | West | 8-4 |
| No. 6 | Detroit Lions | North | 8-4 |
| No. 7 | Dallas Cowboys | East | 8-4 |
| No. 8 | San Francisco 49ers | West | 7-5 |
But the 49ers do like adversity. There has been plenty of it already this year, and there is more on the table.
It is possible that San Francisco is able to scoot into the postseason picture. As previously noted, the 49ers trail the No. 5 and 6 seeds by just one game. Yet tie-breakers do complicate the picture. Any loss from here on out would all but destroy any remaining chances.
"Playoffs? Cardinals’ loss gives #49ers a (reasonable) path to postseason ... http://t.co/y7Y0dQIdHQ
— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) December 1, 2014"
Improving these chances will fall upon the offense—a unit that lacked the playmaking ability and desperation necessary in Week 13.
This means there will be more question marks surrounding Harbaugh, Roman and Kaepernick. Others will certainly be looking for contributions from players like wide receiver Michael Crabtree and tight end Vernon Davis—both of whom are enduring unimpressive 2014 campaigns.
A 4-0 finish will be difficult. It will involve the defense performing up to the task as it has been. But the pressure will be upon the offense to formulate an approach that will not just overpower inferior teams like the Oakland Raiders in Week 14 but also compete and, ultimately, do enough to thwart the Seahawks, San Diego Chargers and Cardinals in the remaining weeks.
Can this happen? Prior indications suggest it will not.
The End Result
The optimist would argue that there is a likable chance to stage a comeback within the standings—that the 49ers would somehow find a rhythm that would carry them deep into the postseason once more.
Yes, this is still possible. Perhaps the 49ers finally click and wind up silencing the critics over these final four games.
But the speculative statements made by Glazer and Maiocco suggest that Harbaugh's future is about as determined as San Francisco's final 2014 record. He may return. He may not. It's that simple yet just as complicated.
If Harbaugh does leave, though, what other changes await? Certainly Roman's tenure is finished if Harbaugh is gone—a likelihood that would satisfy plenty of 49ers fans. But can a prospective new coach enjoy the same success in San Francisco?
Will this ultimately benefit the 49ers, or will it set them back at least for a couple more seasons while a new identity and approach is implemented?
And what of the players? Is this the type of Kaepernick San Francisco will simply have to accept—a player whose physical talents are offset by the type of uncanny mistakes demonstrated against Seattle? Does this jeopardize his future with the team, or is that another question for another time?
Will Crabtree return in 2015? He is on the final year of his contract and may be priced out of the 49ers' future plans. The same could be said of left guard Mike Iupati and, to a certain extent, running back Frank Gore. It's possible that Davis could be a cap casualty as well.
The 49ers' future ranges from being a team that resembles the best of what we have seen in recent seasons all the way to wholesale changes that ultimately reflect the decision of what York and the front office want to see moving forward.
It's a convoluted mess, and it's one that will certainly be the ongoing hot topic surrounding this franchise over the rest of 2014.
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to check out his entire archive on 49ers' news, insight and analysis.
Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.
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