Tough December Schedule Will Be True Test of Milwaukee Bucks' Place in East
Although the Milwaukee Bucks continue to bask in the glow of their hot start to 2014-15, it is not the early-season victories and ladder-climbing, however impressive, that will determine their Eastern Conference standing.
That mystery will be solved later.
Soon, even.
Right about now, actually.
Milwaukee's blistering beginnings will be put through a gauntlet of season-defining tests in December. The competition will be fiercer, the games more meaningful, the results more telling. And by month's end, whether bludgeoned and browbeaten or strong and intact, the Bucks will have been pinned to their rightful place in the lawless East, wherever that may be.
Daunting December
December isn't shaping up to be particularly kind to the Bucks.
Of the 15 games they'll play, 12 come against opponents with records currently above .500. The Bucks have beaten just two winning teams all year (the Memphis Grizzlies and Miami Heat). They are 2-4 against above-.500 factions overall and face a still-formidable Houston Rockets contingent on Nov. 29.
Eleven of their contests will come against the Western Conference. Though they're 3-0 when facing West teams leading into their matchup with Houston, one win came against the war-weary Minnesota Timberwolves, another against the Russell Westbrook- and Kevin Durant-less Oklahoma City Thunder.
Four of their games pit them versus teams that will presumably be playing drastically different basketball. They play the Cleveland Cavaliers twice (Dec. 2 and 31), who have struggled early on but still boast three healthy superstars in LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, along with an offense to be feared.
Both the Heat (Dec. 5) and Thunder (Dec. 9) should also be closer to full strength. Dwyane Wade didn't play in Milwaukee's win over Miami; Westbrook, meanwhile, is already set to return for Oklahoma City, per ESPN.com's Royce Young, while Durant shouldn't be far behind. There's a chance both could be in the lineup when Milwaukee comes to town.
The Bucks also face each of the Dallas Mavericks (Dec. 3 and 7) and Los Angeles Clippers (Dec. 13 and 20) twice. Dallas is still on pace to post the highest offensive rating in NBA history and owns a 5-2 record against the East to date; Los Angeles is off to a slow start—especially on defense—but has gone 4-1 during inter-conference play.
Factoring in the Thunder's return to health, there are really only two gimme games on the schedule, both of which come against the Charlotte Hornets—who, despite their early-season implosion, projected as a playoff team.
If the Bucks wish to enter the New Year with their top-four standing unbroken and their playoff hopes unscathed, there's some serious work to be done.
There are some more expectations to defy.
Troubling Tendencies
Western Conference-heavy months are always difficult for Eastern Conference teams. The East is inherently inferior to the West, so even if the Bucks had already played through the league's most difficult schedule, doubt would be in full supply.
But the Bucks haven't played through the league's toughest schedule. They've enjoyed the league's easiest slate of opponents thus far. And while they have the fourth-best record in the East, they rank 18th in point differential (-1.5).
Their performance is even more fickle when weighted against their schedule's simplicity.
Basketball-Reference.com uses a Simple Rating System (SRS) that takes into account both a team's point differential and schedule strength to provide a more revealing look at where it stands.
The Bucks' SRS is presently -4.57, which ranks 23rd in the Association, behind teams with markedly worse records like the Indiana Pacers, Utah Jazz and Thunder. That they haven't distinguished themselves from a pack of possibly lottery-lost franchises is disconcerting when evaluating the likelihood of them surviving a daunting December.
Troubling still, the Bucks offense remains out of whack. They rank 27th in efficiency and neither attempt (18.9) nor make (5.9) enough three-pointers.
Brandon Knight is also the only player averaging more than 12 points per game. Though their offense actually scores nearly 10 points more per 100 possessions when he's off the floor, he assists on almost one-third of the team's made baskets when in the game. He's their most reliable shot-creator and scorer, and he's easily their most talented playmaker.
Jason Kidd's rotations aren't helping things either. Depth has become something of a cursed gift for him. Knight is the only player logging more than 30 minutes per game, and the Bucks have 10 players who have both appeared in at least 13 contests and are averaging more than 17 minutes. Their most used five-man lineup—minimum five appearances—is also averaging just 9.8 minutes of burn together every night.
Offensive continuity is pretty much impossible to forge when the rotation resembles a revolving door. And it's worth noting the Bucks' lack of potency on that end doesn't bode well on its own. Only two bottom-five offensive teams have made the playoffs since 2010: the 2013-14 Chicago Bulls, and the 2011-12 Boston Celtics.
Not even their generally great defense creates an air of certainty. While they rank sixth in efficiency, they've faced just two top-10 offenses in the Grizzlies and Toronto Raptors, and four top-15 attacks overall.
It's difficult to make any far-flinging assumptions when they've essentially taken advantage of below-average assaults—especially when their presence on the defensive glass has been so inconsistent. They rank 27th in defensive rebounding percentage, which isn't indicative of a top defensive team, as BucksKetBall's KL Chouinard explains further:
"A really good defensive team might grab 80% of its defensive rebounding chances. A middling team would grab around the average, which usually hovers somewhere around 75%. The reason a defense has a better than 50/50 chance is because the defenders are usually closer to the hoop than the offense.
The overriding principle of Kidd’s defense is to put multiple men on the ball on the perimeter. This strategy is magnificent for creating turnovers, but wreaks havoc with regard to defensive rebounding because there are fewer rebounders close to the rim.
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If corralling 80 percent of available rebounds is the goal, the Bucks fall well short. If 75 percent is the bare-minimum goal, they still fall well short. They're snagging just 72.2 percent of available defensive boards, barely up from 71.4 last year, when they were the league's worst defensive team.
Inadequate glass-crashing doesn't have to ruin defenses, to be sure. The Heat of years past managed to fend for themselves on that end of the floor during the LeBron James era without ever dominating in the rebounding department.
But a lack of offensive competition coalesced with insufficient board-hoarding is unnerving as the Bucks prepare for a potentially detrimental December.
Causes for Concern, Not Panic
Look, there's no downplaying the Bucks' start to 2014-15.
Not totally.
"The Bucks are bringing new life back to the Bradley Center," writes the Journal Sentinel's Bill Glauber. "The team is on the rebound, fueled by exciting young players and backed by new ownership. It's early in the marathon NBA season, but something of a rebirth is clearly underway with the Bucks franchise."
Caveats and conditions don't change this. They don't trump the facts. The Bucks weren't supposed to compete this year. Not like this. Not even in the Eastern Conference. Their rise through the ranks has been more of a pleasant surprise and, perhaps, happy accident than anything else.
Now that this team is competing within the Eastern Conference, though, expectations are poised to follow. If the Bucks slog through a dangerous December and come out the other end still in the playoff picture, they're no longer a sleeper. They'll be a recognized postseason contender.
If December proves to be the month that derails their postseason hopes and forces them to tote the burden of proof a while longer, it's not the end of the world. The Bucks weren't supposed to be here, in this conversation, facing a month of basketball that meant something so profound. Not after their listless 2013-14 they endured.
"Last year was not a good place to be. Trust me," center Zaza Pachulia said, per NBA.com's Steve Aschburner. "What's important is that last year is over."
Last year is, in fact, over. This year is different. And no matter how the Bucks are standing after December—strong, barely or not at all—they'll still have thrust themselves into a conversation (this one), even if temporarily, they weren't ever supposed to enter.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.
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