Memphis Grizzlies' Schedule Breakdown and Record Predictions for December
For those wondering if the Memphis Grizzlies can prolong their run as one of the Western Conference's top teams after a hot start, December will provide some clarity. The Grizzlies will face a tougher slate that month, testing their mettle for contention.
The end of the calendar year brings a series of games against the NBA's most serious foes. Eleven of the Grizzlies' 14 games will pit them against surefire playoff teams, including seven from the West. Memphis faces the San Antonio Spurs three times and the Houston Rockets twice.
The Grizzlies will play four back-to-backs.
On the other hand, this stretch provides a couple soft aspects. Only five contests will be on the road. Memphis will enjoy four periods with multiple days between games.
The following is a week-by-week breakdown with win-loss predictions for each segment of the second stage of the Grizzlies' season.
First Week
1 of 5To start, the Grizzlies will face the Rockets on Dec. 3 at the end of a four-game road trip. Houston may enter with greater resolve after Memphis pounded them 119-93 on Nov. 17.
As the Houston Chronicle's Jonathan Feigen said: "When the Rockets ran into a top defensive team with something to prove, they fell apart with poor ball movement and worse decision-making leading to gobs of turnovers in the first 18 minutes and relatively few good shots throughout."
Two of Houston's three losses have come at home, including a 98-87 rout at the hands of the Golden State Warriors on Nov. 8 and a 98-92 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Nov. 19. The Rockets totaled 39 turnovers in those two games.
Unfortunately, the turnover issue of which Feigen spoke isn't isolated to a few games. They're 29th with a 17.1 percent turnover rate. James Harden is averaging a career-high 4.2 turnovers per game.
That doesn't bode well for them in this bout with the Grizzlies, which are fifth in opponent turnover rate and third in steals. Memphis will take advantage of Houston's continued ball-control trouble to win in a rout.
Second, the Grizzlies host the Spurs on Dec. 5. The Spurs may be resting players in the fourth road game in six days. San Antonio will be coming off three games on the East Coast.
This could offer a somewhat easier chance for a victory after the Grizzlies lost all four meetings with the Spurs last season. The Grizzlies should capitalize on the Spurs coming to the end of this road trip.
If the Spurs don't put out a full force, the Miami Heat might hand the Grizzlies their first home loss of the season on Dec. 7. Chris Bosh is carrying the mantle as the scoring leader, averaging 21.4 points per game. Dwyane Wade's health may be in question, as he has missed the past six games with a hamstring injury.
If Wade doesn't play, Miami will have scoring support from Luol Deng, who is averaging 14.7 points per game.
That won't be enough for the Heat to outscore the Grizzlies, which has lost four of the past six games while scoring fewer than 95 points in three of those losses.
Record prediction: 3-0
Second Week
2 of 5
Before winning two softer games against Eastern Conference opponents (Charlotte Hornets on Dec. 12 and Philadelphia 76ers on Dec. 13), the Grizzlies encounter a home challenge from the Dallas Mavericks on Dec. 9.
The Mavericks' strong start came completely on the heels of its offense. They're tops in offensive rating at 118.1 points per 100 possessions.
Dirk Nowitzki will surely enter this game fresh. He's averaging 18.8 points in only 27.3 minutes per game. Five of his six 20-point games came as he played less than 30 minutes while shooting 51.6 percent from the field and 42.4 percent from three-point range.
Monta Ellis is leading the Mavericks with 19.5 points per game on 47.7 percent shooting. Ellis has refined his shot selection, taking fewer mid-range attempts and getting to the basket more. Since joining the Mavericks last year, he's taken 31.6 percent at the rim, compared with between 24 and 28.6 percent the previous three seasons.
Zach Randolph will have a tough fight with Tyson Chandler on the boards. Chandler is fourth in the league with 15 rebounds per game and third with a 21.9 percent total rebounding rate. The 32-year-old has rediscovered himself as a force inside after missing 27 games and picking up 11.5 rebounds per 36 minutes in 2013-14, matching his career average.
Chandler leads a team that ranks eighth in offensive rebounding percentage. That will pose problems for a Grizzlies team that's ranked 19th in defensive rebounding rate. Hence, the league's best offensive squad will be able to clean up much of what they miss en route to victory.
Record prediction: 2-1
Third Week
3 of 5
Memphis will win its first game of the week against the Golden State Warriors at home on Dec. 16. The men in three shades of blue held the high-flying offense to 93.3 points per game in the past two seasons.
After a tough road loss the next day with the San Antonio Spurs, the Grizzlies will come home to meet their ideological twin of the East, the Chicago Bulls, on Dec. 19. Fittingly, CBSSports.com's Matt Moore tweeted that the Grizzlies are "Chicago West."
Both are hard-nosed teams defined by their tough defenses. They are in the top 11 in defensive rating and the top nine in field-goal percentage allowed.
But the Bulls are more reliant upon their defense this season. Chicago's 16th in offensive rating, six spots behind the Grizzlies.
Jimmy Butler is a surprise leader in scoring for the Bulls, averaging 20.4 points per game on 49.7 percent shooting. This may not be sustainable for the 43.3 percent career shooter. The fourth-year pro has largely faced weak defensive teams, such as the Philadelphia 76ers and Sacramento Kings.
He will find a rude welcome from the fourth-ranked team in defensive rating.
Pau Gasol is second behind Butler, averaging 18.6 points per game on 48.7 percent from the field. Pau has struggled in the past three years against his younger brother Marc, averaging 13.5 per game on 43.1 percent shooting in eight games when the 29-year-old Gasol was in uniform.
Meanwhile, Marc averaged 11.9 per game on 44 percent shooting in those games, including 54.2 percent in the past five meetings.
Gasol's growing offensively, scoring 19.9 points per game on 14.4 field-goal attempts per game, which complements his ability to bare down on his older brother defensively. His lopsided advantage in this matchup helps the Grizz triumph against Chicago.
On Dec. 21, the Grizzlies will visit the underperforming Cleveland Cavaliers. Cleveland's 11th-ranked offensive rating might seem reasonable until one realizes LeBron James, Kevin Love and Dion Waiters are significantly below their career field-goal percentages. They may be able to fix the offense, but four weeks won't be enough to beat a premier defensive team.
The Grizzlies will prey on these problems en route to victory.
Record prediction: 3-1
Final Segment (Dec. 22-31)
4 of 5
After a tame second win in a back-to-back against the Utah Jazz at home, the Grizzlies get three days of rest before getting a home victory against the Rockets on Dec. 26.
The Grizzlies' second match with the Heat on Dec. 27 finds the latter comfortable in the sixth of a seven-game home stand, none of which are played on consecutive days. One might like to believe the Grizzlies will see the Heat with Wade in the lineup, but good health from the 32-year-old who missed 28 games last season isn't easy to count on.
That will allow the Grizz to shoot past them again.
They'll have a two-day reprieve before finishing the calendar year at the FedEx Forum against the Spurs on Dec. 30. The Spurs have beaten the Grizzlies with superior shooting, averaging 101.9 points per game in the past eight regular-season meetings.
However, the Spurs are relying more on defense to start the season, leading the league in defensive rating.
This year, the Grizzlies benefit from improved outside shooting. They're in the top 10 with 37.7 percent from three-point range. Some of these figures are unsustainable, such as Mike Conley, a career 37.5 percent three-point shooter, hitting 46.7 percent and Courtney Lee, who is 38.8 percent for his career, knocking down 61.1 percent.
The Spurs are stingy on the outside, holding opponents to 28.2 percent from long distance. They'll contain the Grizzlies' ability to connect from downtown. By limiting Memphis' success on the perimeter, San Antonio will triumph by negating the spacing that has made the Grizzlies more effective offensively.
Record prediction: 3-1
Final Prediction
5 of 5
The Grizzlies will come out of 2014 as strong as they started the season after beating several playoff teams.
Memphis will overrun some teams that might be able to win with scoring at full strength, such as the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat.
Familiar problems will arise against the Spurs, which are still more powerful all-around than the Grizzlies. Memphis has improved as a shooting team, but it'll face some of the best defenders, including Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green.
Also, the Grizzlies could see Lee regress to the mean. He's a solid shooter who's started the year hot, hitting 54.1 percent from the field, 6.1 better than last year.
The "grit 'n' grind" defense that carried them in prior years will ensure they don't fall hard when starters encounter shooting slumps. Their aggressive play will silence the Rockets and Warriors.
December Record: 11-3
Statistics are current through Nov. 23 games. Unless otherwise noted, advanced metrics come from basketball-reference.com.
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