How Concerning Is the San Antonio Spurs' Slow Start?
The San Antonio Spurs are not in dire straits. They are not at risk of becoming a stepping stone in the Western Conference. They are not collapsing before our very eyes.
Nevertheless, their 2014-15 campaign is off to a slow start.
Injuries have certainly played a notable role, since San Antonio is missing three key members of its rotation. Starting center Tiago Splitter is working back from a calf injury, Patty Mills is recovering from shoulder surgery and Marco Belinelli is fighting a groin issue.
What's more, head coach Gregg Popovich has already conceded one game, resting Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili in a 98-81 loss to the Houston Rockets on Nov. 6.
While those excuses are both reasonable and acceptable justifications for the struggles, San Antonio is still hovering around .500 on the year.
Highlighted by Southwest Division foes in the Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets, five Western Conference franchises started 8-3 or better. The Spurs cannot afford to fall too far behind, too early.
Remember, the Phoenix Suns missed the playoffs with 48 victories in 2013-14, and a 50-win team missing the postseason this year is a realistic possibility.
So, how much concern is there surrounding Popovich's squad? While there are some glaring issues, the panic meter has barely even registered a shock—just ask ex-Spurs assistant turned Philadelphia 76ers head coach Brett Brown.
Yes, there are some negatives. San Antonio drilled an NBA-leading 39.7 percent of shots from distance last season. So far in 2014, though, the Spurs have buried just 31.7 of their three-point attempts, which is tied for the fifth-worst mark in the league.
Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Ginobili and Boris Diaw have combined to register a porous 29.5 percent clip. Those players are expected to carry the long-distance shooting unit, yet they haven't produced.
Consequently, the offense has suffered. The team's total output has tumbled from 105.4 points per contest down to 94.4, and its field-goal percentage has dropped from 48.6 to 43.3.
However, ESPN's Matthew Tynan attributed this to the Spurs currently playing at their slowest pace in recent history.
"Only eight teams are playing more slowly than San Antonio's 95.11 possessions per 48 minutes—which is organically eliminating a number of catch-and-shoot assist opportunities per game," he said.
"San Antonio currently has the seventh-worst offense in the league at 99 points scored per 100 possessions, but that number would be much more troubling if not for the years of evidence that suggests this is highly unlikely to pan out as a trend."
Plus, once Belinelli and Mills return, significant changes will occur. Not only will the offensive pace increase, the three-point shooting load will be spread around and return to a more efficient rate.
Something else has become remarkably clear: the defensive-minded Splitter isn't given enough credit for his impact on the opposite end of the floor.
"His greatest strength on the offensive side of the ball is sucking defenders into the paint out of pick-and-roll situations," Tynan said. "He's no Dwight Howard, but his presence, especially in lineups without Tim Duncan, is a major asset."
Last year, three of the Spurs' four lineups without Duncan and including Splitter averaged an offensive points per possession mark of 1.06 or higher and defensive PPP of 1.00 or less, per 82games.
Though the stats are somewhat close, Matt Bonner and Aron Baynes simply don't actually provide comparable ability on the offensive end.
| Tiago Splitter | 2013-14 | 19.2 | 14.4 | 3.6 | 114 | 102 |
| Bonner/Baynes AVG | 2014-15 | 18.2 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 115 | 102 |
However, San Antonio's defense has stepped up in a noteworthy fashion despite missing Splitter in the post, as Tynan noted.
"They're allowing only 98.7 points per 100 possessions, which is currently good for fifth in the NBA and would be better than the 100.1 defensive rating put up by last year's top-four defense."
Ultimately, the Spurs' record hides how well they've actually played without three critical pieces to a championship-winning roster. The offense has been slightly down, but the now-absent trio is set to return in the foreseeable future and boost the attack.
"Once the three-pointers start falling consistently, these struggles will be forgotten," Tynan said. "But San Antonio needs to get rolling before teams like Memphis and Houston start to create too much space in the standings."
Fortunately for the Spurs, they started a favorable stretch of games Nov. 17 with a 100-75 win over the 76ers before Pop's crew continues against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics, among others.
Capitalizing on this easier stint would reduce the eyesore currently observed in the standings.
San Antonio has succeeded while short-handed, so it's in excellent position to reestablish itself atop of the Western Conference when at full strength. Once that happens, the Spurs might even rip off a double-digit winning streak to offset lost time.
Given the circumstances, there is very little concern surrounding the slow-starting, defending NBA champions.
All stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Follow Bleacher Report NBA writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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