Patriots vs. Colts: Complete Week 11 Preview for Indianapolis
The Indianapolis Colts face arguably their biggest opponent for the rest of the season on Sunday Night Football in Week 11, taking on the New England Patriots.
Through their first nine games, the Colts have posted a solid 6-3 record with a two-game lead in the AFC South. Right now, they're currently just a game back from potentially getting a first-round bye in this year's playoffs, but the two top spots in the AFC are currently held by the Patriots and Denver Broncos.
This game is a big one in determining the playoff picture in the AFC, with both teams trying to prove that they're Super Bowl contenders. The last time these two met came in the AFC Divisional Round last year, with the Patriots coming away with a comfortable 43-22 win thanks to 166 yards and four touchdowns from LeGarrette Blount.
Even though the Patriots no longer have Blount, they have an even better weapon this time around in tight end Rob Gronkowski. The Colts have struggled against tight ends all year, and D'Qwell Jackson will be one of the guys who will have to find a way to contain him.
"We're not going to change it up much, but we'll do a good job of making sure we know where he's located at all times, because they move him around a lot," Jackson told Zak Keefer of the Indianapolis Star. "You can't game plan for a particular place he's going to be."
Gronkowski will be just one of the players to keep an eye out for on Sunday night, so let's take a look at a complete Week 11 preview for the Colts as they try to get their biggest win of the year.
Colts Week 9 Recap
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The Colts got back on track after losing their first game since Week 2 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, easily handling the New York Giants with a 40-24 victory.
Through the first half, the Colts were able to score just one touchdown on a 32-yard pass to Coby Fleener, but Adam Vinatieri was busy, making three field goals through the first two quarters. Josh Brown was able to make a 38-yard try for the Giants, but the Colts were up 16-3 heading into the locker room.
After some adjustments at halftime, the passing game really came alive for the Colts in the third quarter. Andrew Luck threw three touchdowns in the quarter, finding T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen to give the third-year quarterback his third four-touchdown performance of the season.
Luck finished the game with 354 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions on 25-for-46 passing.
Eli Manning had a couple of garbage-time touchdowns in the fourth quarter, but he was unable to get the Giants offense moving before then. The pressure got to him often, getting sacked three times and pressured even more frequently.
After a late one-yard touchdown reception by Corey Washington, the Giants were still down big while the Colts got the big win.
The strong performances from the offense, defense and special teams gave the Colts plenty of momentum heading into their bye week, but they'll need to keep riding that momentum for this week's game against the Giants.
News and Notes
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Josh McDaniels Concerned About Colts' Blitz
Defensive coordinator Greg Manusky has done a great job with his blitz packages, which has been one of the big reasons the pass rush has been effective this year.
Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has been preparing to take on the Colts defense, and he understands that they plan to bring some extra pass-rushers against Tom Brady, according to Michael Whitmer from the Boston Globe, saying:
"They blitz quite a bit more than most of the teams that we’ve played, which is going to be a very critical factor in the game, our ability to handle that. They play a lot of tight man coverage, they have guys that do a really good job of covering man-to-man, one-on-one situations on the outside, they ask their safeties and linebackers to do the same thing [and] they’ve got guys that can do that.
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So far, the Patriots have done a pretty good job of giving Brady a clean pocket, allowing him to be sacked just 14 times all year. The Colts defense has produced 24 sacks so far, but they'll likely have to get creative if they're going to rush Brady into making bad decisions.
LaRon Landry To Play, Not Start, Against Patriots
The Colts aren't ready to bring back LaRon Landry against the Giants after coming off a four-game suspension for violating the league's PED policy, but it looks like he'll finally return to action this week.
Phillip B. Wilson from Scout.com tweeted that Landry will play against the Patriots, although Sergio Brown will keep the starting safety job opposite of Mike Adams.
It's been a while since we last saw Landry, but that really hasn't been a bad thing considering how much he's struggled during his time in Indianapolis. Brown hasn't been elite by any stretch, but he has felt like an upgrade at the position, proving to be a more reliable option.
It's unclear just how much Landry will play, but if the Colts have him out there often, expect the Patriots to try to expose him in the passing game, just like they did in the playoffs last year.
Tom Brady Gives Very High Praise to Andrew Luck
In his third season in the league, Luck has officially emerged as one of the most productive and talented quarterbacks in the league, living up to the hype coming out of Stanford. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady would tend to agree that the hype is real.
During his weekly news conference on Wednesday, Brady talked about Luck, according to Mike Wells of ESPN.com, saying:
"He's a great player, in his third year, and he's had a lot of success. Their offense is doing a great job this year; they score a lot of points [averaging a league-high 32.2 per game], especially at home. He's kind of the ringleader. He does a lot of things I wish I could do. He's big, fast, shrugs off blockers. He makes a lot of extended plays. He's a great passer.
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Coming from a three-time Super Bowl champion and two-time Super Bowl MVP, that's extremely high praise for Luck.
The rivalry between the Patriots and Colts isn't the same since Peyton Manning left, but the respect between the two opposing quarterbacks is still very much there.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Victor Butler | OLB | Probable |
| Gosder Cherilus | OT | Questionable |
| Arthur Jones | DT | Out |
| Josh McNary | ILB | Probable |
| Henoc Muamba | ILB | Probable |
| Erik Walden | OLB | Probable |
Note: All injury statuses are from Friday's practice via Colts.com
One of the big free-agent signings this offseason was bringing in Arthur Jones, a mean defensive lineman formerly with the Baltimore Ravens. Unfortunately, he's been bothered by injuries all year, playing in just one game since going down in Week 2. He'll be out once again this week against the Patriots, meaning Ricky Jean Francois will have to continue to step up in his place.
The big question mark heading into Sunday night will be whether or not offensive tackle Gosder Cherilus plays. He returned to practice for the first time Friday, but he's still officially listed as questionable with a groin injury. Not having Cherilus in the starting lineup may be an upgrade, however, as the veteran has seriously struggled this season, especially recently.
Other than that, the Colts come into Week 11 with few major injuries, and considering how many people went down last season, that has to be considered a victory up to this point. Now they just need to keep their players healthy and ready for the playoffs.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
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T.Y. Hilton vs. Darrelle Revis
Offensively, there won't be a bigger matchup for the Colts than third-year wide receiver T.Y. Hilton going against a truly elite cornerback in Darrelle Revis.
I've not been shy about calling Hilton an emerging elite receiver in the league. He currently ranks in the top 10 in receiving yards (937), receptions (56) and average yards per reception (16.7). For those that have doubted this claim, this is Hilton's chance to prove himself as a deadly weapon on a national stage.
It won't be easy, however, going against Revis Island. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Revis has been targeted just 44 times all year, allowing 26 receptions for 353 yards and a touchdown while intercepting two passes and defending five.
Luck may look at his other targets for the majority of the game, but don't be surprised if he tries to find Hilton deep every now and then to test New England's defense.
Colts Defense vs. Rob Gronkowski
I'm putting the entire defense on here as a matchup to watch because it's going to take a group effort to contain Gronkowski this week. The Colts have struggled all year covering opposing tight ends, ranking 29th in the league according to the metrics used by Football Outsiders.
So far, it seems like no one has found an answer for defending Gronk, who has finally returned to form after tearing his ACL last season. So far, Gronkowski already has 49 receptions for 663 yards and eight touchdowns, but he's been even more deadly recently. In just their past two games, Gronk has caught 18 passes for 254 yards and four touchdowns.
The Colts may have to get creative to try to cover Gronkowski, but we'll have wait and see who they decide to put on the 25-year-old on Sunday.
Anthony Castonzo vs. Patriots Pass-Rush
In his first two career games against the Patriots, Luck has thrown seven interceptions. One of the reasons for his struggles has been the constant pressure put on him by opposing defenses.
The Patriots won't be shy about trying to put pressure on Luck, but Anthony Castonzo could play a big role in protecting his quarterback, especially if he can shut down New England's pass-rush. The Patriots have already racked up 22 sacks this year, with players like Dont'a Hightower, Rob Ninkovich and Dominique Easley looking to add to that total on Sunday.
Per PFF, Castonzo has allowed just one sack all season coming from Luck's blind side, and he'll be looking to keep that number the same after this week. The Patriots are a tough matchup, however, so this will be a big test for the starting left tackle.
Colts' X-Factor of the Week: Jonathan Newsome
Bjoern Werner has improved considerably from his rookie season, but he's still not on the same level as Robert Mathis was before his season-ending injury. The Colts have needed others to produce in the Pro Bowler's absence, and so far rookie Jonathan Newsome has answered.
The Colts have started to put Newsome in more and more the past few games, and that likely won't stop this week. Despite only being a fifth-round pick, Newsome has already put up three sacks, blocked an attempted pooch punt from Ben Roethlisberger and strip-sacked Eli Manning on Monday Night Football.
Newsome won't be getting a call to go play at the Pro Bowl this year, but he's been a welcome addition to the pass rush. If he can continue to play well against New England, the Colts might have found a long-term option at outside linebacker.
Prediction
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This will be no easy task for the Colts, and even though I've learned better than to count them out of any game, it's hard to see them overcoming the mismatches that the Patriots present.
Gronkowski will be a nightmare on his own, but the Colts will also have to worry about Shane Vereen in the backfield, as he's already caught 31 passes for 246 yards and three touchdowns this season. The Colts rank dead last in covering running backs in the passing game according to Football Outsiders, so Vereen could have a big game with the defense so focused on Gronk.
Offensively, the Colts will have to play a near-perfect game. However, Luck has yet to impose his will against New England in their previous two meetings, throwing seven turnovers in those games. This time around, Luck will have more weapons, but Darrelle Revis will be locked onto their best in Hilton.
That means the tight ends in Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener will need to step up, but also rookie Donte Moncrief.
The last time the Colts played the Patriots, a different depth receiver in LaVon Brazill made a couple of great plays, catching two passes for 73 yards and two touchdowns. This time, Colts fans are hoping that Moncrief can produce and establish himself as a long-term option at the position.
I expect the Colts to keep this one close thanks to their offense, but the defense has too many mismatches to feel comfortable in predicting an Indianapolis win.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Colts 28
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